Genome-wide association study of ulcerative colitis identifies three new susceptibility loci, including the HNF4A region

Ulcerative colitis is a common form of inflammatory bowel disease with a complex etiology. As part of the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 2, we performed a genome-wide association scan for ulcerative colitis in 2,361 cases and 5,417 controls. Loci showing evidence of association at P 1 × 10 5 were followed up by genotyping in an independent set of 2,321 cases and 4,818 controls. We find genome-wide significant evidence of association at three new loci, each containing at least one biologically relevant candidate gene, on chromosomes 20q13 (HNF4A; P = 3.2 × 10 17), 16q22 (CDH1 and CDH3; P = 2.8 × 10 8) and 7q31 (LAMB1; P = 3.0 × 10 8). Of note, CDH1 has recently been associated with susceptibility to colorectal cancer, an established complication of longstanding ulcerative colitis. The new associations suggest that changes in the integrity of the intestinal epithelial barrier may contribute to the pathogenesis of ulcerative colitis. © 2009 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.

Association scan of 14,500 nonsynonymous SNPs in four diseases identifies autoimmunity variants

We have genotyped 14,436 nonsynonymous SNPs (nsSNPs) and 897 major histocompatibility complex (MHC) tag SNPs from 1,000 independent cases of ankylosing spondylitis (AS), autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD), multiple sclerosis (MS) and breast cancer (BC). Comparing these data against a common control dataset derived from 1,500 randomly selected healthy British individuals, we report initial association and independent replication in a North American sample of two new loci related to ankylosing spondylitis, ARTS1 and IL23R, and confirmation of the previously reported association of AITD with TSHR and FCRL3. These findings, enabled in part by increased statistical power resulting from the expansion of the control reference group to include individuals from the other disease groups, highlight notable new possibilities for autoimmune regulation and suggest that IL23R may be a common susceptibility factor for the major 'seronegative' diseases.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

The Australian naturalistic driving study: From beginnings to launch

The Australian Naturalistic Driving Study (ANDS), a ground-breaking study of Australian driver behaviour and performance, was officially launched on April 21st, 2015 at UNSW. The ANDS project will provide a realistic perspective on the causes of vehicle crashes and near miss crash events, along with the roles speeding, distraction and other factors have on such events. A total of 360 volunteer drivers across NSW and Victoria - 180 in NSW and 180 in Victoria - will be monitored by a Data Acquisition System (DAS) recording continuously for 4 months their driving behaviour using a suite of cameras and sensors. Participants’ driving behaviour (e.g. gaze), the behaviour of their vehicle (e.g. speed, lane position) and the behaviour of other road users with whom they interact in normal and safety-critical situations will be recorded. Planning of the ANDS commenced over two years ago in June 2013 when the Multi-Institutional Agreement for a grant supporting the equipment purchase and assembly phase was signed by parties involved in this large scale $4 million study (5 university accident research centres, 3 government regulators, 2 third party insurers and 2 industry partners). The program’s second development phase commenced a year later in June 2014 after a second grant was awarded. This paper presents an insider's view into that two year process leading up to the launch, and outlines issues that arose in the set-up phase of the study and how these were addressed. This information will be useful to other organisations considering setting up an NDS.

In the Shadow of Freedom : Life on board the oil tanker

The aim of this study was to look at the freedom of ordinary people as they construct it. The scope, however, was limited to contemporary Finnish sailors and their freedom discourses. The study belongs to the field of the anthropology of religions, which is part of comparative religion. Worldview, which is one of the key concepts in comparative religion, provided the broader theoretical basis of the study. The data consisted of 92 interviews with Finnish professional seafarers conducted in 1996, 1999, 2000 and 2005, field journals that were written during two periods of fieldwork in 1996 and 1999-2000, and correspondence with some of the seafarers during 1999-2005. The analysis process incorporated new rhetoric and metaphor theory. The thesis is in three parts. The first part discusses the methodological challenges of this type of ethnography, the second an ethnography of modern Finnish shipworld focuses on work, organization, hierarchy and gender, and the third part discusses the freedom concepts of seafarers. It was found that seafarers use two kinds of freedom discourse. The first is in line with the stereotypical Jack Tar, a free-roving sailor who is not bound to land and its mundane routines, and the second views shipworld as freedom from freedom, meaning one is not responsible for one s own actions because one is not free to make a choice. It was also found that seafarers are well aware of the stereotypical images that are attached to their profession: they not only deny them, but also utilize, reflect on and construct them.

Internationalizing school curriculum in Australasia: As niche, by test, or at heart?

Global citizenship has emerged as a pressing curricular priority which all educational systems are currently grappling with. The challenge is to negotiate how this orientation might sit alongside the more traditional mission of mass school curriculum in building collective ballast for a national identity through a common morality and shared narratives, or may conflict with efforts to protect and promote indigenous and minority identities. As a case study of how these agendas interact, this chapter will consider curricular responses to global imperatives in the variegated conditions across the Australasian region (defined as Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea). The chapter will outline recent developments in the social, economic and political contexts surrounding curricular reforms in these settings, and demonstrate how these developments have changed the conditions of possibility and strength of purpose behind efforts to internationalise school curricula. Three types of systemic responses are then described: firstly, an appetite for globally branded curricula such as the International Baccalaureate, Montessori, and Cambridge University Certificates to distinguish some in a stratified market; secondly, convergence in curriculum to improve national performance on international standardised tests; and thirdly, the infusion of cosmopolitan sensibilities, regional identities and intercultural competencies as a core curricular goal for all. The chapter considers the various pragmatic interpretations of ‘internationalisation’ in these responses, and argues that the third response seems both the most difficult to enact, and the most vulnerable to political interference.

Disease mapping using Bayesian hierarchical models

description and analysis of geographically indexed health data with respect to demographic, environmental, behavioural, socioeconomic, genetic, and infectious risk factors (Elliott andWartenberg 2004). Disease maps can be useful for estimating relative risk; ecological analyses, incorporating area and/or individual-level covariates; or cluster analyses (Lawson 2009). As aggregated data are often more readily available, one common method of mapping disease is to aggregate the counts of disease at some geographical areal level, and present them as choropleth maps (Devesa et al. 1999; Population Health Division 2006). Therefore, this chapter will focus exclusively on methods appropriate for areal data...

Closed-form solutions for low-rank non-rigid reconstruction

Recovering the motion of a non-rigid body from a set of monocular images permits the analysis of dynamic scenes in uncontrolled environments. However, the extension of factorisation algorithms for rigid structure from motion to the low-rank non-rigid case has proved challenging. This stems from the comparatively hard problem of finding a linear “corrective transform” which recovers the projection and structure matrices from an ambiguous factorisation. We elucidate that this greater difficulty is due to the need to find multiple solutions to a non-trivial problem, casting a number of previous approaches as alleviating this issue by either a) introducing constraints on the basis, making the problems nonidentical, or b) incorporating heuristics to encourage a diverse set of solutions, making the problems inter-dependent. While it has previously been recognised that finding a single solution to this problem is sufficient to estimate cameras, we show that it is possible to bootstrap this partial solution to find the complete transform in closed-form. However, we acknowledge that our method minimises an algebraic error and is thus inherently sensitive to deviation from the low-rank model. We compare our closed-form solution for non-rigid structure with known cameras to the closed-form solution of Dai et al. [1], which we find to produce only coplanar reconstructions. We therefore make the recommendation that 3D reconstruction error always be measured relative to a trivial reconstruction such as a planar one.

Principles of Pitch Organization in Béla Bartók's 'Duke Bluebeard's Castle'

The topic of my doctoral thesis is to demonstrate the usefulness of incorporating tonal and modal elements into a pitch-web square analysis of Béla Bartók's (1881-1945) opera, 'A kékszakállú herceg vára' ('Duke Bluebeard's Castle'). My specific goal is to demonstrate that different musical materials, which exist as foreground melodies or long-term key progressions, are unified by the unordered pitch set {0,1,4}, which becomes prominent in different sections of Bartók's opera. In Bluebeard's Castle, the set {0,1,4} is also found as a subset of several tetrachords: {0,1,4,7}, {0,1,4,8}, and {0,3,4,7}. My claim is that {0,1,4} serves to link music materials between themes, between sections, and also between scenes. This study develops an analytical method, drawn from various theoretical perspectives, for conceiving superposed diatonic spaces within a hybrid pitch-space comprised of diatonic and chromatic features. The integrity of diatonic melodic lines is retained, which allows for a non-reductive understanding of diatonic superposition, without appealing to pitch centers or specifying complete diatonic collections. Through combining various theoretical insights of the Hungarian scholar Ernő Lendvai, and the American theorists Elliott Antokoletz, Paul Wilson and Allen Forte, as well as the composer himself, this study gives a detailed analysis of the opera's pitch material in a way that combines, complements, and expands upon the studies of those scholars. The analyzed pitch sets are represented on Aarre Joutsenvirta's note-web square, which adds a new aspect to the field of Bartók analysis. Keywords: Bartók, Duke Bluebeard's Castle (Op. 11), Ernő Lendvai, axis system, Elliott Antokoletz, intervallic cycles, intervallic cells, Allen Forte, set theory, interval classes, interval vectors, Aarre Joutsenvirta, pitch-web square, pitch-web analysis.

Ruumiinkuvia! : Suomalainen performanssi- ja kehotaide 1980- ja1990-luvulla psykoanalyysin valossa

My PhD-thesis Body Images! Psychoanalytical Analysis of Finnish Performance and Body Art in the 1980s and 1990s considers Finnish performance and body art performed mainly by visual artists. In Part I, I chart the historical construction of performance art and its extension since the beginning of the 21st century. There are several wievs of the historical background of performance art. I introduce three different genealogies of performance art. One is Rose-Lee Goldberg s view. She connects performance art with the European avant-garde already at the beginning of the 20th century from futurists and dadaists to Russian avant-garde and the Bauhaus. I prefer to present performance art as contemporary art, which began to take shape in connection with visual arts in the 1950s and 1960s. The focus on the body is apparent in nearly all performance art. Nevertheless, throug the concept of body art I want to empasize the artist s body as the place of art. Body art (as part of performance art) functions as thematic and interpretive concept, which allows me to focus on performances where the questions of body image, narcissism, desire, language and pleasure are incorporated in particular intensive ways. In Part II, I explore the arrival of performance art in Finnish visual arts in the 1980s. I study the new generation s relation to earlier Finnish happenings (1960s) and performative actions in 1970 s. I briefly introduce performance groups of the 1980s art scene and consider their reception in media. The main focus is on the group Jack Helen Brut, in which I see many similarities to the so- called Theatre of Images. The goal of this part II is to provide historical context for the performance analysis that follows. In Part III, I develop the concept of body image which is my main theoretical term. The concept of body image is used according to Lacanian psychoanalytical theory, especially his considerations of mirror stages. My first mapping of body image, which I call imaginary body image, is based on Lacan s famous mirror stage article (1949). According to my reading, body image is narcistic and aggressive. The important concepts here are ego, imaginary, méconnaisance and alienation. In 1953 Lacan began to develop different version on mirror stage, in which he emphasized the primacy of symbolic dimension. It is not image, but language which constructs the foundations of body image. Central concepts in this chater are Other as language, ego-ideal, demand and desire. In the last chapter I connect the third version of the mirror stage to concepts of gaze, phantasy, real, jouissance and object a. In previous chapters I had considered body image in relation to ego. Now I explore it in relation to subject. In my reading the body image is fragile phenomen, which oscillates between yearning for coherence and phantasies of fragmented images. Part IV of the thesis begins with an introduction to the central concepts and debates in performace studies over the last few decades. Important concepts are presence, performativity and theatricality. The main substance of my thesis, however, is the performance analysis, which focuses on works by three Finnish artists and one Finnish group. The first analysis concerns the performance (1992) of Kimmo Schroderus. I discuss the relationship between narcissism and body art and the changes in demands projected on body images of men in recent decades in a Euro-American context. I also explore this performance in relation to the myth of Narcissus, which I reinterpret through Narcissus s aggression against his own body. The group Homo S is the main subject of the next analysis. I discuss the relationship between feminist art and performance art, especially in the United States in the 1960s and 1970s. Homo S is different from this early performance art because of its anarchism, humor and rejection of all ideals. Homo S characterizes its performance Body Body (1983) as liberating vulgar feminism . Sociality and performance of erotic relations between women are central in Body Body. Pia Lindman s performances are the subjects of my third analysis. I study three of her performances: Olen muoto (1993), 17 and in love (1994) and Arranged views (1995). I interpret these performances as efforts to disperse the imaginary and symbolic structures of the body image. She constructs the peculiar object a and phantasy space of her own. In the last analysis I move from questions of image and gaze to a study of language, sound and jouissance. I discuss at a general level the performance of orality and helplesness (Hilflosigkeit) in body art. The central elements in Pentti Otto Koskinen s performances are the ear, listening and receptive gestures and postions. Perseveraatio (1998) can be understood representing as submission to the super-ego s power, which compels one to enjoy. I examine particularly closely the performance Maissi on hyvää ei missään nimessä maissia (1995), which I interpret as the return of a baby s body image to the liminal site of choice: language or jouissance?

The efficacy of a vitamin D3 metabolite for improving the myofibrillar tenderness of meat from Bos indicus cattle

The influence of a once only administration of a metabolite of vitamin D3 (HY [middle dot] D(R)-25-hydroxy vitamin D3) on myofibrillar meat tenderness in Australian Brahman cattle was studied. Ninety-six Brahman steers of three phenotypes (Indo-Brazil, US and US/European) and with two previous hormonal growth promotant (HGP) histories (implanted or not implanted with Compudose(R)) were fed a standard feedlot ration for 70 d. Treatment groups of 24 steers were offered daily 10 g/head HY [middle dot] D(R) (125 mg 25-hydroxyvitamin D3) for 6, 4, or 2 d before slaughter. One other group of 24 steers was given the basal diet without HY [middle dot] D(R). Feed lot performance, blood and muscle samples and carcass quality data were collected at slaughter. Calcium, magnesium, potassium, sodium, iron and Vitamin D3 metabolites were measured in plasma and longissimus dorsi muscle. Warner-Bratzler (WB) shear force (peak force, initial yield) and other objective meat quality measurements were made on the longissimus dorsi muscle of each steer after ageing for 1, 7 and 14 d post-mortem at 0-2 [deg]C.There were no significant effects of HY [middle dot] D(R) supplements on average daily gain (ADG, 1.28-1.45 kg/d) over the experimental period. HY [middle dot] D(R) supplements given 6 d prior to slaughter resulted in significantly higher (P (R)) by phenotype/HGP interaction for peak force (P = 0.028), in which Indo-Brazil steers without previous HGP treatment responded positively (increased tenderness) to HY [middle dot] D(R) supplements at 2 d when compared with Indo-Brazil steers previously given HGP. There were no significant effects of treatment on other phenotypes. HY [middle dot] D(R) supplements did not affect muscle or plasma concentrations of calcium, potassium or sodium, but did significantly decrease plasma magnesium and iron concentrations when given 2 d before slaughter. There were no detectable amounts of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 in the blood or muscle of any cattle at slaughter.

Den brændende Fakkel : Om dobbeltgrebet i Knud Lyne Rahbeks liv og revolutionsroman

Professor Knud Lyne Rahbek was a novelist, playwright, poet, magazine editor, journalist, socialite person, host of the Bakkehus , historian, theatre manager, translator, publisher etc., but his versatility either side of 1800 is better known than read and more despised than understood. In terms of methodology, the thesis is based on biographical, historical and philological research, while at the same time making use of formalistic and close reading methods. This study begins and ends with 7th of February 1800, when Kamma and Knud Lyne Rahbek join the exiled P.A. Heiberg at the inn near Frederiksberg Castle. What falls between is an interpretation of Rahbek s works in the service of democracy, human rights and freedom of the press as a pragmatic navigation between activities - both subversive and legitimate. Posterity mistook this range as mere spinelessness, and Rahbek was relegated to the literary and historical margins as an anachronism and as a jack of all trades, who did not know what he really wanted and therefore flitted about in so many fields just to be present. But Rahbek s problem was not one of standpoint, but rather how to find a balance between totalizing attitudes and confrontations between rebellious idealism and deep-rooted absolutism, without foregoing his belief in enlightenment, humanism and tolerance. In this way, and also through his personal conduct, which at that time was seen as jovial bonhommie, he made his contribution to the development of modern democratic Denmark in the full awareness of a popular, peaceful and down-to-earth community. Rahbek s principal work about the event of the French Revolution, which provides the focus for the above, is Camill og Constance. Et Revolutions Skilderie (1799). For today s reader, the novel about the revolution is an obvious example of a historical novel, as it does not only provide fictionalized information about past events placing them in a generally accepted perspective of historical development, but also gives the characters qualities, which, in Rahbek s words, allows the real events to influence the fictional characters. From this point of view, the novel of the revolution has shifted the benchmark for the first real historical novel on the European literary scene back by fifteen years. Lacking the aura so easily foisted on fearless iconoclasts or tragic losers, Rahbek s contribution may seem modest in spite of its enormous volume; but only when it is not evaluated in its full context, which is the development of Denmark towards an international democratic society.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Embedding sustainability in a real-world context: Developing a world class early learning centre

This symposium describes what is possible when early childhood professionals work with designers to develop a vision for an exemplary early childhood centre with a focus on Education for Sustainability (EfS). The symposium provides insights into cross-disciplinary initiatives between QUT Early childhood and Design staff and students, who have worked together with the iconic Lone Pine Koala Sanctuary in Brisbane, to explore imperatives around EfS, including leadership and professionalism. This practical, real world project has seen all stakeholders engage in a focus on sustainability which has opened new ways of thinking about early childhood centre design. Cross-disciplinarity has created space to re-think the potential of the disciplines to interweave, and in so doing opened different ways for thinking about early childhood centres – their operation and their function. For the first time in Queensland, this project creates strategic alliances between EfS, childcare, business and sustainable design. EfS is essential for addressing local and global environmental issues and early childhood EfS research has been gaining international momentum, with governments nominating this area as having significant capacity to empower communities and promote change. While models for collaboration exist in the early childhood programs in Reggio Emilia, we offer sustainability as a unique and contemporary focus with immense potential to generate international and national interest. To date Early Childhood degree students enrolled in a leadership and management unit/subject have worked collaboratively with Design students to explore the sustainable design of the proposed Lone Pine early childhood centre. Providing students with a ‘real world’ project sees them re-positioned from ‘novice’ to ‘professional’, where their knowledge, expertise and perspectives are simultaneously validated and challenged. These learning experiences are enabling students to practice a new model of early childhood leadership, one that is vital for leading in an increasingly complex world. The symposium will be comprised of three discrete, though interconnected presentations, that work together to tell the story of this project. Three key facets of the project will be explored during the 90 minute session, as the perspectives of key stakeholders are shared. The first presentation (A/Prof Julie Davis, Dr Lyndal O’Gorman& Dr Megan Gibson) will outline the role of QUT School of Early Childhood staff and students, with attention to the ways in which the project was embedded in students’ work in the final year of their degree program of study. The second presentation (Ms Lindy Osborne) will provide insights into the Design students’ collaborative work in the project. Finally, the key role of the Lone Pine Koala Sanctuary and their commitment for EfS (Ms Peta Wilson & Dr Sue Elliott) will map out the philosophy that underpins the project. Together, the authors will conclude key project outcomes that have been achieved through this real-world, cross-disciplinary work.

Climate change effects on pasture systems in south-eastern Australia.

Climate change projections for Australia predict increasing temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. The aims of this study were to predict plant production responses to elevated CO2 concentrations using the SGS Pasture Model and DairyMod, and then to quantify the effects of climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070 on predicted pasture growth, species composition, and soil moisture conditions of 5 existing pasture systems in climates ranging from cool temperate to subtropical, relative to a historical baseline. Three future climate scenarios were created for each site by adjusting historical climate data according to temperature and rainfall change projections for 2030, 2070 mid-and 2070 high-emission scenarios, using output from the CSIRO Mark 3 global climate model. In the absence of other climate changes, mean annual pasture production at an elevated CO2 concentration of 550 ppm was predicted to be 24-29% higher than at 380 ppm CO2 in temperate (C-3) species-dominant pastures in southern Australia, with lower mean responses in a mixed C-3/C-4 pasture at Barraba in northern New South Wales (17%) and in a C-4 pasture at Mutdapilly in south-eastern Queensland (9%). In the future climate scenarios at the Barraba and Mutdapilly sites in subtropical and subhumid climates, respectively, where climate projections indicated warming of up to 4.4 degrees C, with little change in annual rainfall, modelling predicted increased pasture production and a shift towards C-4 species dominance. In Mediterranean, temperate, and cool temperate climates, climate change projections indicated warming of up to 3.3 degrees C, with annual rainfall reduced by up to 28%. Under future climate scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, and Ellinbank, Victoria, our study predicted increased winter and early spring pasture growth rates, but this was counteracted by a predicted shorter spring growing season, with annual pasture production higher than the baseline under the 2030 climate scenario, but reduced by up to 19% under the 2070 high scenario. In a cool temperate environment at Elliott, Tasmania, annual production was higher than the baseline in all 3 future climate scenarios, but highest in the 2070 mid scenario. At the Wagga Wagga, Ellinbank, and Elliott sites the effect of rainfall declines on pasture production was moderated by a predicted reduction in drainage below the root zone and, at Ellinbank, the use of deeper rooted plant systems was shown to be an effective adaptation to mitigate some of the effect of lower rainfall.