The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

A basic data requirement of a river flood inundation model is a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the reach being studied. The scale at which modeling is required determines the accuracy required of the DTM. For modeling floods in urban areas, a high resolution DTM such as that produced by airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) is most useful, and large parts of many developed countries have now been mapped using LiDAR. In remoter areas, it is possible to model flooding on a larger scale using a lower resolution DTM, and in the near future the DTM of choice is likely to be that derived from the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM). A variable-resolution global DTM obtained by combining existing high and low resolution data sets would be useful for modeling flood water dynamics globally, at high resolution wherever possible and at lower resolution over larger rivers in remote areas. A further important data resource used in flood modeling is the flood extent, commonly derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Flood extents become more useful if they are intersected with the DTM, when water level observations (WLOs) at the flood boundary can be estimated at various points along the river reach. To illustrate the utility of such a global DTM, two examples of recent research involving WLOs at opposite ends of the spatial scale are discussed. The first requires high resolution spatial data, and involves the assimilation of WLOs from a real sequence of high resolution SAR images into a flood model to update the model state with observations over time, and to estimate river discharge and model parameters, including river bathymetry and friction. The results indicate the feasibility of such an Earth Observation-based flood forecasting system. The second example is at a larger scale, and uses SAR-derived WLOs to improve the lower-resolution TanDEM-X DEM in the area covered by the flood extents. The resulting reduction in random height error is significant.

Bound Variable, Split Antecedent and Ellipsis Interpretations in L2 Portuguese: Implications for L2 Acquisition Theories.

Recently, in light of minimalist assumptions, some partial UG accessibility accounts to adult second language acquisition have made a distinction between the post-critical period ability to acquire new features based on their LF-interpretability (i.e. interpretable vs. uninterpretable features) (HAWKINS, 2005; HAWKINS; HATTORI, 2006; TSIMPLI; MASTROPAVLOU, 2007; TSIMPLI; DIMITRAKOPOULOU, 2007). The Interpretability Hypothesis (TSIMPLI; MASTROPAVLOU, 2007; TSIMPLI; DIMITRAKOPOULOU, 2007) claims that only uninterpretable features suffer a post-critical period failure and, therefore, cannot be acquired. Conversely, Full Access approaches claim that L2 learners have full access to UG’s entire inventory of features, and that L1/L2 differences obtain outside the narrow syntax. The phenomenon studied herein, adult acquisition of the Overt Pronoun Constraint (OPC) (MONTALBETTI, 1984) and inflected infinitives in nonnative Portuguese, challenges the Interpretability hypothesis insofar as it makes the wrong predictions for what is observed. The present data demonstrate that advanced learners of L2 Portuguese acquire the OPC and the syntax and semantics of inflected infinitives with native-like accuracy. Since inflected infinitives require the acquisition of new uninterpretable φ-features, the present data provide evidence in contra Tsimpli and colleagues’ Interpretability Hypothesis.

The impact of variable sea ice roughness on changes in Arctic Ocean surface stress: a model study

The Arctic sea ice cover is thinning and retreating, causing changes in surface roughness that in turn modify the momentum flux from the atmosphere through the ice into the ocean. New model simulations comprising variable sea ice drag coefficients for both the air and water interface demonstrate that the heterogeneity in sea ice surface roughness significantly impacts the spatial distribution and trends of ocean surface stress during the last decades. Simulations with constant sea ice drag coefficients as used in most climate models show an increase in annual mean ocean surface stress (0.003 N/m2 per decade, 4.6%) due to the reduction of ice thickness leading to a weakening of the ice and accelerated ice drift. In contrast, with variable drag coefficients our simulations show annual mean ocean surface stress is declining at a rate of -0.002 N/m2 per decade (3.1%) over the period 1980-2013 because of a significant reduction in surface roughness associated with an increasingly thinner and younger sea ice cover. The effectiveness of sea ice in transferring momentum does not only depend on its resistive strength against the wind forcing but is also set by its top and bottom surface roughness varying with ice types and ice conditions. This reveals the need to account for sea ice surface roughness variations in climate simulations in order to correctly represent the implications of sea ice loss under global warming.

Sensitivity of OMI SO2 measurements to variable eruptive behaviour at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Since 2004, the satellite-borne Ozone Mapping Instrument (OMI) has observed sulphur dioxide (SO2) plumes during both quiescence and effusive eruptive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. On average, OMI detected a SO2 plume 4-6 times more frequently during effusive periods than during quiescence in the 2008-2010 period. The increased ability of OMI to detect SO2 during eruptive periods is mainly due to an increase in plume altitude rather than a higher SO2 emission rate. Three styles of eruptive activity cause thermal lofting of gases (Vulcanian explosions; pyroclastic flows; a hot lava dome) and the resultant plume altitudes are estimated from observations and models. Most lofting plumes from Soufrière Hills are derived from hot domes and pyroclastic flows. Although Vulcanian explosions produced the largest plumes, some produced only negligible SO2 signals detected by OMI. OMI is most valuable for monitoring purposes at this volcano during periods of lava dome growth and during explosive activity.

Variable phenotypic manifestations of a K44N mutation in the TGIF gene

The etiologies and clinical spectra of HPE are extremely heterogeneous. Here, we report a Brazilian boy with lobar holoprosencephaly who was ascertained in a sample of 60 patients with HPE and HPE-like phenotypes and screened for molecular analysis of the major HPE causative genes: SHH, PTCH, SIX3, GLI2, and TGIF This boy presented a p.K44N (c.132G > T) mutation in exon 2 of the TGIF gene which was inherited from his phenotypically normal mother. This mutation leads to lysine to arginine amino acid change and is predicted to be a damaging mutation. Clinical aspects involving variable phenotypical manifestations in different mutations of TGIF are discussed. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A two-armed pattern in flickering maps of the nova-like variable UU aquarii

We report the analysis of a uniform sample of 31 light curves of the nova-like variable UU Aqr with eclipse-mapping techniques. The data were combined to derive eclipse maps of the average steady-light component, the long-term brightness changes, and the low- and high-frequency flickering components. The long-term variability responsible for the ""low-brightness`` and ""high-brightness`` states is explained in terms of the response of a viscous disk to changes of 20%-50% in the mass transfer rate from the donor star. Low- and high-frequency flickering maps are dominated by emission from two asymmetric arcs reminiscent of those seen in the outbursting dwarf nova IP Peg, and they are similarly interpreted as manifestations of a tidally induced spiral shock wave in the outer regions of a large accretion disk. The asymmetric arcs are also seen in the map of the steady light aside from the broad brightness distribution of a roughly steady-state disk. The arcs account for 25% of the steady-light flux and are a long-lasting feature in the accretion disk of UU Aqr. We infer an opening angle of 10 degrees +/- 3 degrees for the spiral arcs. The results suggest that the flickering in UU Aqr is caused by turbulence generated after the collision of disk gas with the density-enhanced spiral wave in the accretion disk.

ON THE NATURE OF THE PROTOTYPE LUMINOUS BLUE VARIABLE AG CARINAE. II. WITNESSING A MASSIVE STAR EVOLVING CLOSE TO THE EDDINGTON AND BISTABILITY LIMITS

We show that the significantly different effective temperatures (T(eff)) achieved by the luminous blue variable AG Carinae during the consecutive visual minima of 1985-1990 (T(eff) similar or equal to 22,800 K) and 2000-2001 (T(eff) similar or equal to 17,000 K) place the star on different sides of the bistability limit, which occurs in line-driven stellar winds around T(eff) similar to 21,000 K. Decisive evidence is provided by huge changes in the optical depth of the Lyman continuum in the inner wind as T(eff) changes during the S Dor cycle. These changes cause different Fe ionization structures in the inner wind. The bistability mechanism is also related to the different wind parameters during visual minima: the wind terminal velocity was 2-3 times higher and the mass-loss rate roughly two times smaller in 1985-1990 than in 2000-2003. We obtain a projected rotational velocity of 220 +/- 50 km s(-1) during 1985-1990 which, combined with the high luminosity (L(star) = 1.5 x 10(6) L(circle dot)), puts AG Car extremely close to the Eddington limit modified by rotation (Omega Gamma limit): for an inclination angle of 90 degrees, Gamma(Omega) greater than or similar to 1.0 for M(circle dot) less than or similar to 60. Based on evolutionary models and mass budget, we obtain an initial mass of similar to 100 M(circle dot) and a current mass of similar to 60-70 M(circle dot) for AG Car. Therefore, AG Car is close to, if not at, the Omega Gamma limit during visual minimum. Assuming M = 70 M(circle dot), we find that Gamma(Omega) decreases from 0.93 to 0.72 as AG Car expands toward visual maximum, suggesting that the star is not above the Eddington limit during maximum phases.

Autoimmunity in common variable immunodeficiency

immunodeficiency (CVID), the most common symptomatic primary immunodeficiency in adulthood. Different authors report high prevalences of autoimmune diseases in CVID, and several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this apparent paradox. Genetic predisposition, under current surveillance, innate and adaptive immunity deficiencies leading to persistent/recurrent infections, variable degrees of immune dysregulation, and possible failure in central and peripheral mechanisms of tolerance induction or maintenance may all contribute to increased autoimmunity. Conclusions Data on the clinical/immunological profile of affected patients and treatment are available mostly concerning autoimmune cytopenias, the most common autoimmune diseases in CVID. Treatment is based on conventional alternatives, in association with short experience with new agents, including rituximab and infliximab. Benefits of early immunoglobulin substitutive treatment and hypothetical premature predictors of autoimmunity are discussed as potential improvements to CVID patients` follow-up.

Slower rescue of ER homeostasis by the unfolded protein response pathway associated with common variable immunodeficiency

Common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) is a primary immunodeficiency characterized by hypogammaglobulinemia and recurrent infections. Herein we addressed the role of unfolded protein response (UPR) in the pathogenesis of the disease. Augmented unspliced X-box binding protein 1 (XBP-1) mRNA concurrent with co-localization of IgM and BiP/GRP78 were found in one CVID patient. At confocal microscopy analysis this patient`s cells were enlarged and failed to present the typical surface distribution of IgM, which accumulated within an abnormally expanded endoplasmic reticulum. Sequencing did not reveal any mutation on XBP-1, neither on IRE-1 alpha that could potentially prevent the splicing to occur. Analysis of spliced XBP-1, IRE-1 alpha and BiP messages after LPS or Brefeldin A treatment showed that, unlike healthy controls that respond to these endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stressors by presenting waves of transcription of these three genes, this patient`s cells presented lower rates of transcription, not reaching the same level of response of healthy subjects even after 48 h of ER stress. Treatment with DMSO rescued IgM and IgG secretion as well as the expression of spliced XBP-1. Our findings associate diminished splicing of XBP-1 mRNA with accumulation of IgM within the ER and lower rates of chaperone transcription, therefore providing a mechanism to explain the observed hypogammaglobulinemia. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reduced frequency of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells and diminished FOXP3 expression in patients with Common Variable Immunodeficiency: A link to autoimmunity?

Common Variable Immunodeficiency (CVID) is a primary immunodeficiency disease characterized by defective immunoglobulin production and often associated with autoimmunity. We used flow cytometry to analyze CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) T regulatory (Treg) cells and ask whether perturbations in their frequency in peripheral blood could underlie the high incidence of autoimmune disorders in CVID patients. In this study, we report for the first time that CVID patients with autoimmune disease have a significantly reduced frequency of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells in their peripheral blood accompanied by a decreased intensity of FOXP3 expression. Notably, although CVID patients in whom autoimmunity was not diagnosed had a reduced frequency of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells, FOXP3 expression levels did not differ from those in healthy controls. In conclusion, these data suggest compromised homeostasis of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells in a subset of CVID patients with autoimmunity, and may implicate Treg cells in pathological mechanisms of CVID. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discontinuous local semiflows for Kurzweil equations leading to LaSalle`s invariance principle for differential systems with impulses at variable times

In this paper, we consider an initial value problem for a class of generalized ODEs, also known as Kurzweil equations, and we prove the existence of a local semidynamical system there. Under certain perturbation conditions, we also show that this class of generalized ODEs admits a discontinuous semiflow which we shall refer to as an impulsive semidynamical system. As a consequence, we obtain LaSalle`s invariance principle for such a class of generalized ODEs. Due to the importance of LaSalle`s invariance principle in studying stability of differential systems, we include an application to autonomous ordinary differential systems with impulse action at variable times. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Loops, Chains, Sheets, and Networks from Variable Coordination of Cu(hfac)(2) with a Flexibly Hinged Aminoxyl Radical Ligand

One pair of reactants, Cu(hfac)(2) = M and the hinge-flexible radical ligand 5-(3-N-tert-butyl-N-aminoxylphenyl)pyrimidine (3PPN = L), yields a diverse set of five coordination complexes: a cyclic loop M(2)L(1) dimer; a 1:1 cocrystal between an M(2)L(2) loop and an ML(2) fragment; a ID chain of M(2)L(2) loops linked by M; two 2D M(3)L(2) networks of (M-L)(n) chains crosslinked by M with different repeat length pitches; a 3D M(3)L(2) network of M(2)L(2) loops cross-linking (M-L)(n)-type chains with connectivity different from those in the 2D networks. Most of the higher dimensional complexes exhibit reversible, temperature-dependent spin-state conversion of high-temperature paramagnetic states to lower magnetic moment states having antiferromagnetic exchange within Cu-ON bonds upon cooling, with accompanying bond contraction. The 3D complex also exhibited antiferromagnetic exchange between Cu(II) ions linked in chains through pyrimidine rings.

Global minimization using an Augmented Lagrangian method with variable lower-level constraints

A novel global optimization method based on an Augmented Lagrangian framework is introduced for continuous constrained nonlinear optimization problems. At each outer iteration k the method requires the epsilon(k)-global minimization of the Augmented Lagrangian with simple constraints, where epsilon(k) -> epsilon. Global convergence to an epsilon-global minimizer of the original problem is proved. The subproblems are solved using the alpha BB method. Numerical experiments are presented.

3D roll-forming of hat-profile with variable depth and width

The use of roll-formed products in automotive, furniture, buildings etc. increases every year due to the low part-production cost and the complicated cross-sections that can be produced. The limitation with roll-forming until recent years is that one could only produce profiles with a constant cross-section in the longitudinal direction. About eight years ago ORTIC AB [1] developed a machine in which it was possible to produce profiles with a variable width (“3D roll-forming”) for the building industry. Experimental equipment was recently built for research and prototyping of profiles with variable cross-section in both width and depth for the automotive industry. The objective with the current study is to investigate the new tooling concept that makes it possible to roll-form hat-profiles, made of ultra high strength steel, with variable cross-section in depth and width. The result shows that it is possible to produce 3D roll-formed profiles with close tolerances.

A Note on Proxy Variables and Instrument Variable Regression

This is a note about proxy variables and instruments for identification of structural parameters in regression models. We have experienced that in the econometric textbooks these two issues are treated separately, although in practice these two concepts are very often combined. Usually, proxy variables are inserted in instrument variable regressions with the motivation they are exogenous. Implicitly meaning they are exogenous in a reduced form model and not in a structural model. Actually if these variables are exogenous they should be redundant in the structural model, e.g. IQ as a proxy for ability. Valid proxies reduce unexplained variation and increases the efficiency of the estimator of the structural parameter of interest. This is especially important in situations when the instrument is weak. With a simple example we demonstrate what is required of a proxy and an instrument when they are combined. It turns out that when a researcher has a valid instrument the requirements on the proxy variable is weaker than if no such instrument exists