経済成長と貧困・雇用：Pro-Poor Growth論の系譜

開発途上国が長期的に貧困削減を実現していくためには、貧困削減に貢献する形で経済成長をすることが必要であり、貧困削減に親和的な経済成長がPro-Poor Growthと呼ばれている。現在までのところ、Pro-Poor Growth研究は、どの国のどの時期の経済成長が貧困削減に大きく貢献したかを問うものが多数を占めており、何がpro-poor growthをもたらすか、に着目した研究は少ない。その少ない研究の多くは農業や農村経済の役割に期待するものであるが、本稿では、既にある程度の貧困削減を遂げた東・東南アジアの経験に鑑み、低賃金の国において労働集約的製造業品を輸出することで貧困層の賃金や雇用機会を飛躍的に伸張させる可能性について考察した。バングラデシュ、カンボジアといった国々は既に縫製業がその役割を果たしており、これまでの東・東南アジアの貧困削減パターンが現在の東南アジアや南アジアの最貧国でも踏襲される可能性が十分にある。

開発戦略としてのPro-Poor Growth －貧困層への雇用創出－

本稿は、後発開発途上国においてpro-poor growthを達成する開発戦略を、産業政策との関連から研究したものである。アジアとアフリカの経済発展プロセスにおいて、貧困層にどの産業が雇用機会を提供するか、を研究した。その結果明らかになったのは、1970-90年代の典型的な東アジア高成長経済であるタイと台湾において、貧困層に最も大きな雇用機会を与えたのが農業部門であったのに対して、貧困層の雇用機会増に最も貢献したのが製造業部門であったということである。同様の傾向は、アフリカの輸出指向成長国であるモーリシャスについても観察された。一方、グローバリゼーションの活力が十分に生かされなかったマラウィ、南アフリカ、インドにおいては、製造業が同様の雇用機会を貧困層に提供できなかった。結論として導かれるのは、典型的な後発発展途上国においては、雇用に関して農業のシェアが製造業のシェアを上回るのが一般的であるものの、もし比較優位がグローバリゼーションの中で顕在化できるのであれば、貧困層の雇用機会増に関して、農業よりも製造業の貢献度が大きくなりうる、ということである。一国全体の経済発展という観点のみならず、貧困層に利益をもたらすpro-poor growthという文脈においても、製造業の果たす役割が無視し得ないことが明らかになった。

Financial permeation as a role of microfinance : has microfinance actually been helpful to the poor?

This article is distinct in its application of the logit transformation to the poverty ratio for the purpose of empirically examining whether the financial sector helps improve standards of living for low-income people. We propose the term financial permeation to describe how financial networks expand to spread money among the poor. We measure financial permeation by three indicators related to microfinance institutions (MFIs) and then examine its effect on poverty reduction at the macro level using panel data for 90 developing countries from 1995 to 2008. We find that financial permeation has a statistically significant and robust effect on decreasing the poverty ratio.

Seasonal migration and micro-credit in the lean period : evidence from northwest Bangladesh

This paper investigates the relationship between access to micro-credit and temporary seasonal migration, an issue which is largely ignored in the standard rural-urban migration literature. Seasonal migration due to agricultural downturns is a common phenomenon in developing countries. Using primary data from a cross-sectional household survey from the northwest part of Bangladesh, this study quantifies the factors that influence such migration decisions. Among other results, we find that network effects play a significant role in influencing the migration decision, with the presence of kinsmen at the place of destination having considerable impact. Seasonal migration is a natural choice for individual suffering periodic hardship; however the strict weekly loan repayment rules of Micro-credit Institutes can have an adverse effect on this process, reducing the ability of borrowers to react to a shock. Our result suggests that poor individuals prefer the option of not accessing the micro-credit and opt for temporal seasonal migration during the lean period. The results have numerous potential policy implications, including the design of typical micro-credit schemes.

Competition between firms in developing and developed countries

We analyze competition in emerging markets between firms in developing and developed countries from the viewpoint of the boundaries of the firm. Although indigenous firms generally face a disadvantage in technology compared with foreign firms, they have an advantage in marketing as local firms. Moreover, they have opportunities to leave weaker fields to independent specialized firms and use lower wages. On the other hand, foreign firms also have their own advantages and disadvantages for growth. Therefore, entry conditions for indigenous firms can vary greatly depending on the situation. We classify these conditions into eight cases by developing a model and showing each boundary choice for indigenous firms.

Fiji mapped mangrove ecosystem service rankings in GeoJSON format

Incorporating the values of the services that ecosystems provide into decision making is becoming increasingly common in nature conservation and resource management policies, both locally and globally. Yet with limited funds for conservation of threatened species and ecosystems there is a desire to identify priority areas where investment efficiently conserves multiple ecosystem services. We mapped four mangrove ecosystems services (coastal protection, fisheries, biodiversity, and carbon storage) across Fiji. Using a cost-effectiveness analysis, we prioritised mangrove areas for each service, where the effectiveness was a function of the benefits provided to the local communities, and the costs were associated with restricting specific uses of mangroves. We demonstrate that, although priority mangrove areas (top 20%) for each service can be managed at relatively low opportunity costs (ranging from 4.5 to 11.3% of overall opportunity costs), prioritising for a single service yields relatively low co-benefits due to limited geographical overlap with priority areas for other services. None-the-less, prioritisation of mangrove areas provides greater overlap of benefits than if sites were selected randomly for most ecosystem services. We discuss deficiencies in the mapping of ecosystems services in data poor regions and how this may impact upon the equity of managing mangroves for particular services across the urban-rural divide in developing countries. Finally we discuss how our maps may aid decision-makers to direct funding for mangrove management from various sources to localities that best meet funding objectives, as well as how this knowledge can aid in creating a national mangrove zoning scheme.

Vitamin A deficiency in poor, urban, lactating women in Bangladesh: factors influencing vitamin A status

Aims: To investigate the prevalence of vitamin A deficiency among lactating women in a poor urban population of Bangladesh, and to examine the relationship between various factors and vitamin A status. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Maternal and child health clinic in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. Subjects and methods: A total of 120 lactating women aged 17-37 years were randomly selected from women who attended a local maternal and child health clinic in Dhaka City for immunisation of their children. Various socio-economic, personal characteristics, dietary intakes of vitamin A and anthropometric data were collected. Serum retinol (vitamin A) concentration was determined as a measure of vitamin A status. Results: Of the subjects, 37% had low serum vitamin A levels (<30 μg dl(-1)), with 13.3% having sub-clinical vitamin A deficiency (<20 mug dl(-1)). Eighty-seven per cent had vitamin A intakes below the recommended dietary allowance. The lactating women who were either illiterate or received only informal education had significantly (P=0.002) lower serum vitamin A levels compared with those who received formal education. The women whose husbands received formal education had significantly (P=0.05) higher serum vitamin A levels than those whose husbands were either illiterate or received only informal education. The serum vitamin A levels of women in households with poor sanitation/latrine practice were significantly (P=0.03) lower than those of women in households with good sanitation/latrine practice. The women with one child had significantly (P=0.015) lower serum vitamin A levels than those with two or more children. Women with a lactation period of 6 months or more had significantly (P=0.034) lower serum vitamin A levels than women with a lactation period of less than 6 months. The women who consumed less than the median vitamin A intake (274.8 mug day(-1)) had significantly (P=0.01) lower serum vitamin A levels than those who consumed more than the median vitamin A intake. By multiple regression analysis, education level of the women, number of living children, duration of lactation and dietary intake of vitamin A were found to have significant independent relationships with serum vitamin A. The overall F-ratio (6.8) was highly significant (P=0.000), the adjusted R-2 was 0.16 (multiple R=0.44). Conclusion: A significant proportion of poor, urban, lactating women in Bangladesh have vitamin A deficiency. Among the various factors, education level of the women, number of living children, duration of lactation and dietary intake of vitamin A appear to be important in influencing the vitamin A status of these women.

Anaemia and vitamin A deficiency in poor urban pregnant women of Bangladesh

This cross-sectional study investigated the prevalence of anaemia and vitamin A deficiency (VAD) among pregnant women in a poor urban population of Bangladesh. It also examined the association of various socio-economic and dietary factors with anaemia and vitamin A status. A maternal and child health clinic in Dhaka city, Bangladesh was used to obtain the sample. Three hundred and eighty three pregnant women, aged 20-30 years, of 20-30 weeks gestation were randomly selected from women on their first presentation for antenatal care. Socio-economic, pregnancy related information, usual dietary pattern, and anthropometric data were collected. Blood haemoglobin and serum retinol (vitamin A) concentrations were determined. About 40% of the pregnant women were anaemic (haemoglobin <11.0 g/dl) and 45% had low serum vitamin A levels (<30 mug/dl); with 8.6% having sub-clinical VAD (serum retinol <20 μg/dl). The women with low serum vitamin A levels had 1.8 times greater risk of being anaemic than did the women with normal vitamin A status. Food frequency data revealed that a large proportion of these women did not consume egg (49%), milk (25%), meat (31%), liver (83%), large fish (32%), small fish (39%) and sweet pumpkin (52%) at all; while about 25% of the women reported consuming dark green leafy vegetables (DGLV) and 64% reported an intake of fruit at least four servings a week. The pregnant women who were either illiterate or received only informal education (up to grade ten) had significantly lower haemoglobin and serum vitamin A levels compared to those who completed at least a secondary school certificate. The women whose husbands were illiterate or received only informal education had significantly (P=0.01) lower serum vitamin A levels than those whose husbands had received at least a secondary school certificate. The women who came from families with a per-capita income below the poverty line had significantly lower haemoglobin and serum vitamin A levels compared to those who came from families with a per-capita income above the poverty line. The women who consumed three servings or less of DGLV and fruit per week had significantly lower haemoglobin and serum vitamin A levels than those who consumed four or more servings a week. The women who never consumed large fish had significantly lower haemoglobin compared to those who reported at least one serving a week. Furthermore, the women who never consumed sweet pumpkin had significantly lower serum vitamin A than the women who ate at least one serving a week. By multiple regression analysis, intake of meat, DGLV and fruit, and serum vitamin A levels were found to have a significant independent relationship with haemoglobin. The overall F-ratio (9.9) was highly significant (P=0.000), the adjusted R-square was 0.086 (multiple R=0.309). Multiple regression analysis for serum vitamin A also revealed a significant independent relationship with per capita income, haemoglobin levels, intakes of DGLV and sweet pumpkin. The overall F-ratio (10.2) was highly significant (P=0.000), the adjusted R-square was 0.10 (multiple R=0.312). In conclusion, anaemia and vitamin A deficiency were highly prevalent among poor urban pregnant women in Bangladesh. Various socio-economic and dietary factors may influence the anaemia and vitamin A status of these women. The present study emphasizes the need for a comprehensive intervention strategy, which include both nutritional and environmental factors, to improve the nutritional status of this population.

The valuation of travel time savings in least developed countries:theoretical and empirical challenges and results from a field study

In developed countries travel time savings can account for as much as 80% of the overall benefits arising from transport infrastructure and service improvements. In developing countries they are generally ignored in transport project appraisals, notwithstanding their importance. One of the reasons for ignoring these benefits in the developing countries is that there is insufficient empirical evidence to support the conventional models for valuing travel time where work patterns, particularly of the poor, are diverse and it is difficult to distinguish between work and non-work activities. The exclusion of time saving benefits may lead to a bias against investment decisions that benefit the poor and understate the poverty reduction potential of transport investments in Least Developed Countries (LDCs). This is because the poor undertake most travel and transport by walking and headloading on local roads, tracks and paths and improvements of local infrastructure and services bring large time saving benefits for them through modal shifts. The paper reports on an empirical study to develop a methodology for valuing rural travel time savings in the LDCs. Apart from identifying the theoretical and empirical issues in valuing travel time savings in the LDCs, the paper presents and discusses the results of an analysis of data from Bangladesh. Some of the study findings challenge the conventional wisdom concerning the time saving values. The Bangladesh study suggests that the western concept of dividing travel time savings into working and non-working time savings is broadly valid in the developing country context. The study validates the use of preference methods in valuing non-working time saving values. However, stated preference (SP) method is more appropriate than revealed preference (RP) method.

Entrepreneurial intentions in developing and developed countries

Purpose – This study proposes to use the Theory of Planned Behaviour to predict entrepreneurial intentions among students in five developing and nine developed countries. The purpose is to investigate whether entrepreneurial intention and its antecedents differ between developing and developed countries, and to test the theory in the two groups of countries. Design/methodology/approach – A total of 2,225 students in 13 countries participated in this study by responding to a structured questionnaire in classrooms. Structural equation modelling was used to analyse the data. Findings – The findings indicate that respondents from developing countries have stronger entrepreneurial intentions than those from developed countries. Moreover, the respondents from developing countries also score higher on the theory's antecedents of entrepreneurial intentions – attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control – than respondents from developed countries. The findings support the Theory of Planned Behaviour in both developing and developed countries. Research limitations/implications – The findings strongly support the Theory of Planned Behaviour. The measure of subjective norms used, a multiple-item index encompassing the views of other people and motivation to comply with these, seems to have advantages over other measures of this concept. Practical implications – Developing countries need to focus on the development of institutions that can support entrepreneurial efforts. At the same time, developed economies may need to accept that entrepreneurial intentions are dependent on the dynamism of an economic environment and possibly on risk-perceiving behaviours. Originality/value – While multiple-country studies on entrepreneurship in developing and developed countries have been called for, no previous study has compared entrepreneurial intentions between developing and developed countries. The inclusion of developing countries provides a unique quasi-experimental setting in which to test the theory.

Better queue management in a busy public hospital of a developing country without appointment system::an application using data envelopment analysis

Queuing is a key efficiency criterion in any service industry, including Healthcare. Almost all queue management studies are dedicated to improving an existing Appointment System. In developing countries such as Pakistan, there are no Appointment Systems for outpatients, resulting in excessive wait times. Additionally, excessive overloading, limited resources and cumbersome procedures lead to over-whelming queues. Despite numerous Healthcare applications, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has not been applied for queue assessment. The current study aims to extend DEA modelling and demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the queue system of a busy public hospital in a developing country, Pakistan, where all outpatients are walk-in; along with construction of a dynamic framework dedicated towards the implementation of the model. The inadequate allocation of doctors/personnel was observed as the most critical issue for long queues. Hence, the Queuing-DEA model has been developed such that it determines the ‘required’ number of doctors/personnel. The results indicated that given extensive wait times or length of queue, or both, led to high target values for doctors/personnel. Hence, this crucial information allows the administrators to ensure optimal staff utilization and controlling the queue pre-emptively, minimizing wait times. The dynamic framework constructed, specifically targets practical implementation of the Queuing-DEA model in resource-poor public hospitals of developing countries such as Pakistan; to continuously monitor rapidly changing queue situation and display latest required personnel. Consequently, the wait times of subsequent patients can be minimized, along with dynamic staff scheduling in the absence of appointments. This dynamic framework has been designed in Excel, requiring minimal training and work for users and automatic update features, with complex technical aspects running in the background. The proposed model and the dynamic framework has the potential to be applied in similar public hospitals, even in other developing countries, where appointment systems for outpatients are non-existent.

The influence of neighbourhood formality status and socio-economic position on self-rated health among adult men and women: a multilevel, cross sectional, population study from Aleppo, Syria

Background There is substantial evidence from high income countries that neighbourhoods have an influence on health independent of individual characteristics. However, neighbourhood characteristics are rarely taken into account in the analysis of urban health studies from developing countries. Informal urban neighbourhoods are home to about half of the population in Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria (population>2.5 million). This study aimed to examine the influence of neighbourhood socioeconomic status (SES) and formality status on self-rated health (SRH) of adult men and women residing in formal and informal urban neighbourhoods in Aleppo. Methods The study used data from 2038 survey respondents to the Aleppo Household Survey, 2004 (age 18–65 years, 54.8% women, response rate 86%). Respondents were nested in 45 neighbourhoods. Five individual-level SES measures, namely education, employment, car ownership, item ownership and household density, were aggregated to the level of neighbourhood. Multilevel regression models were used to investigate associations. Results We did not find evidence of important SRH variation between neighbourhoods. Neighbourhood average of household item ownership was associated with a greater likelihood of reporting excellent SRH in women; odds ratio (OR) for an increase of one item on average was 2.3 (95% CI 1.3-4.4 (versus poor SRH)) and 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.5 (versus normal SRH)), adjusted for individual characteristics and neighbourhood formality. After controlling for individual and neighbourhood SES measures, women living in informal neighbourhoods were less likely to report poor SRH than women living in formal neighbourhoods (OR= 0.4; 95% CI (0.2- 0.8) (versus poor SRH) and OR=0.5; 95%; CI (0.3-0.9) (versus normal SRH). Conclusions Findings support evidence from high income countries that certain characteristic of neighbourhoods affect men and women in different ways. Further research from similar urban settings in developing countries is needed to understand the mechanisms by which informal neighbourhoods influence women’s health.

From ‘poor parenting’ to micro-management:coalition governance and the sponsorship of arm’s-length bodies in the United Kingdom, 2010–13

The delegation of public tasks to arm’s-length bodies remains a central feature of contemporary reform agendas within both developed and developing countries. The role and capacity of political and administrative principals (i.e. ministers and departments of state) to control the vast network of arm’s-length bodies for which they are formally responsible is therefore a critical issue within and beyond academe. In the run-up to the 2010 General Election in the United Kingdom, the ‘quango conundrum’ emerged as an important theme and all three major parties committed themselves to shift the balance of power back towards ministers and sponsor departments. This article presents the results of the first major research project to track and examine the subsequent reform process. It reveals a stark shift in internal control relationships from the pre-election ‘poor parenting’ model to a far tighter internal situation that is now the focus of complaints by arm’s-length bodies of micro-management. This shift in the balance of power and how it was achieved offers new insights into the interplay between different forms of governance and has significant theoretical and comparative relevance. Points for practitioners: For professionals working in the field of arm’s-length governance, the article offers three key insights. First, that a well-resourced core executive is critical to directing reform given the challenges of implementing reform in a context of austerity. Second, that those implementing reform will also need to take into account the diverse consequences of centrally imposed reform likely to result in different departments with different approaches to arm’s-length governance. Third, that reforming arm’s-length governance can affect the quality of relationships, and those working in the field will need to mitigate these less tangible challenges to ensure success.

A Global Review on Peri-Urban Development and Planning

Urban regions worldwide are increasingly facing the challenge of dealing with highly dynamic metropolitan growth and, at the same time, institutional changes like decentralisation and globalisation. These kinds of changes express themselves most evidently in peri-urban areas, where urban and rural life meets. These peri-urban areas in particular have been the stage for rapid physical, social and economic transformations, both in developed and developing countries. Peri-urbanization takes place here. Based on literature review, this paper presents an effort to identify generic attributes of peri-urbanisation and the way in which development planning tends to reply. Three major attributes are identified: peri-urban space (the spatial expression of peri-urban development), peri-urban life (the functional appearance of land uses, activities and peri-urban innovation), and peri-urban change (a causal and temporal perspective featuring flows and drivers of change). It is also shown that prevalent institutional replies in planning and development generally fail to acknowledge the dynamic and increasingly fragmented attributes of global peri-urbanisation.