New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of 2001 BASS/MODEL, MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.22 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.31 Mb] Report of the 2001 BASS/MODEL Workshop [pdf, 0.65 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Report of the 2001 MONITOR Workshop [pdf, 0.7 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Workshop presentations: Sonia D. Batten PICES Continuous Plankton Recorder pilot project Phillip R. Mundy GEM (Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council`s "Gulf Ecosystem Monitoring" initiative) and U.S. GOOS plans in the North Pacific Ron McLaren and Brian O`Donnell A proposal for a North Pacific Action group of the international Data Buoy Cooperation Panel Gilberto Gaxiola-Castrol and Sila Najera-Martinez The Mexican oceanographic North Pacific program: IMECOCAL Sydney Levitus Building global ocean profile and plankton databases for scientific research Report of the 2001 REX Workshop [pdf, 1.73 Mb] On temporal variations in size-at-age for fish species in coastal areas around the Pacific Rim Workshop presentations: Brian J. Pyper, Randall M. Peterman, Michael F. Lapointe and Carl J. Walters [pdf, 0.33 Mb] Spatial patterns of covariation in size-at-age of British Columbia and Alaska sockeye salmon stocks and effects of abundance and ocean temperature R. Bruce MacFarlane, Steven Ralston, Chantell Royer and Elizabeth C. Norton [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Influences of the 1997-1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña on juvenile Chinook salmon in the Gulf of the Farallones Olga S. Temnykh and Sergey L. Marchenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Variability of the pink salmon sizes in relation with abundance of Okhotsk Sea stocks Ludmila A. Chernoivanova, Alexander N. Vdoven and D.V. Antonenko [pdf, 0.3 Mb] The characteristic growth rate of herring in Peter the Great Bay (Japan/East Sea) Nikolay I. Naumenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Temporal variations in size-at-age of the western Bering Sea herring Evelyn D. Brown [pdf, 0.45 Mb] Effects of climate on Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii, in the northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince William Sound, Alaska Jake Schweigert, Fritz Funk, Ken Oda and Tom Moore [pdf, 0.6 Mb] Herring size-at-age variation in the North Pacific Ron W. Tanasichuk [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Implications of variation in euphausiid productivity for the growth, production and resilience of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) from the southwest coast of Vancouver Island Chikako Watanabe, Ahihiko Yatsu and Yoshiro Watanabe [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Changes in growth with fluctuation of chub mackerel abundance in the Pacific waters off central Japan from 1970 to 1997 Yoshiro Watanabe, Yoshiaki Hiyama, Chikako Watanabe and Shiro Takayana [pdf, 0.35 Mb] Inter-decadal fluctuations in length-at-age of Hokkaido-Sakhalin herring and Japanese sardine in the Sea of Japan Pavel A. Balykin and Alexander V. Buslov [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Long-term variability in length of walley pollock in the western Bering Sea and east Kamchtka Alexander A. Bonk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Effect of population abundance increase on herring distribution in the western Bering Sea Sergey N. Tarasyuk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Survival of yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera Pallas) in the northern part of the Tatar Strait (Sea of Japan) during the second half of the 20th century Report of the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop [pdf, 1.2 Mb] To develop a marine ecosystem model of the North Pacific Ocean including pelagic fishes Summary and Overview [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Workshop presentations: Bernard A. Megrey, Kenny Rose, Francisco E. Werner, Robert A. Klumb and Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] A generalized fish bioenergetics/biomass model with an application to Pacific herring Robert A. Klumb [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review of Clupeid biology with emphasis on energetics Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Reflections of factors affecting size-at-age and strong year classes of herring in the North Pacific Shin-ichi Ito, Yutaka Kurita, Yoshioki Oozeki, Satoshi Suyama, Hiroya Sugisaki and Yongjin Tian [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review for Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) study under the VENFISH project lexander V. Leonov and Gennady A. Kantakov [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Formalization of interactions between chemical and biological compartments in the mathematical model describing the transformation of nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and carbon compounds Herring group report and model results [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Saury group report and model results [pdf, 0.46 Mb] Model experiments and hypotheses Recommendations [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Achievements and future steps Acknowledgements [pdf, 0.29 Mb] References [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendix 1. List of Participants [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendices 2-5. FORTRAN codes [pdf, 0.4 Mb] (Document pdf contains 182 pages)

A rational fraction polynomials model to study vertical dynamic wheel-rail interaction

This paper presents a model designed to study vertical interactions between wheel and rail when the wheel moves over a rail welding. The model focuses on the spatial domain, and is drawn up in a simple fashion from track receptances. The paper obtains the receptances from a full track model in the frequency domain already developed by the authors, which includes deformation of the rail section and propagation of bending, elongation and torsional waves along an infinite track. Transformation between domains was secured by applying a modified rational fraction polynomials method. This obtains a track model with very few degrees of freedom, and thus with minimum time consumption for integration, with a good match to the original model over a sufficiently broad range of frequencies. Wheel-rail interaction is modelled on a non-linear Hertzian spring, and consideration is given to parametric excitation caused by the wheel moving over a sleeper, since this is a moving wheel model and not a moving irregularity model. The model is used to study the dynamic loads and displacements emerging at the wheel-rail contact passing over a welding defect at different speeds.

Experimental Studies on Model Scramjet in a Mach 6 High Enthalpy Free-Jet Wind Tunnel

A side-wall compression scramjet model with different combustor geometries has been tested in a propulsion tunnel that typically provides the testing flow with Mach number of 5.8, total temperature of 1800K, total pressure of 4.5MPa and mass flow rate of 4kg/s. This kerosene-fueled scramjet model consists of a side-wall compression inlet, a combustor and a thrust nozzle. A strut was used to increase the contraction ratio and to inject fuels, as well as a mixing enhancement device. Several wall cavities were also employed for flame-holding. In order to shorten the ignition delay time of the kerosene fuel, a little amount of hydrogen was used as a pilot flame. The pressure along the combustor has an evident raise after ignition occurred. Consequently thrust was observed during the fuel-on period. However, the thrust was still less than the drag of the scramjet model. For this reason, the drag variation produced by different strut and cavities was tested. Typical results showed that the cavities do not influence the drag so much, but the length of the strut does.

Failure process analysis of cement under explosive loading with a generalized driven nonlinear threshold model

The microstructural heterogeneity and stress fluctuation play important roles in the failure process of brittle materials. In this paper, a generalized driven nonlinear threshold model with stress fluctuation is presented to study the effects of microstructural heterogeneity on continuum damage evolution. As an illustration, the failure process of cement material under explosive loading is analyzed using the model. The result agrees well with the experimental one, which proves the efficiency of the model.

Asymptotic scaling in the two-dimensional O(3) Nonlinear sigma model: a Monte Carlo study on parallel computers

We investigate the 2d O(3) model with the standard action by Monte Carlo simulation at couplings β up to 2.05. We measure the energy density, mass gap and susceptibility of the model, and gather high statistics on lattices of size L ≤ 1024 using the Floating Point Systems T-series vector hypercube and the Thinking Machines Corp.'s Connection Machine 2. Asymptotic scaling does not appear to set in for this action, even at β = 2.10, where the correlation length is 420. We observe a 20% difference between our estimate m/Λ^─_(Ms) = 3.52(6) at this β and the recent exact analytical result . We use the overrelaxation algorithm interleaved with Metropolis updates and show that decorrelation time scales with the correlation length and the number of overrelaxation steps per sweep. We determine its effective dynamical critical exponent to be z' = 1.079(10); thus critical slowing down is reduced significantly for this local algorithm that is vectorizable and parallelizable.

We also use the cluster Monte Carlo algorithms, which are non-local Monte Carlo update schemes which can greatly increase the efficiency of computer simulations of spin models. The major computational task in these algorithms is connected component labeling, to identify clusters of connected sites on a lattice. We have devised some new SIMD component labeling algorithms, and implemented them on the Connection Machine. We investigate their performance when applied to the cluster update of the two dimensional Ising spin model.

Finally we use a Monte Carlo Renormalization Group method to directly measure the couplings of block Hamiltonians at different blocking levels. For the usual averaging block transformation we confirm the renormalized trajectory (RT) observed by Okawa. For another improved probabilistic block transformation we find the RT, showing that it is much closer to the Standard Action. We then use this block transformation to obtain the discrete β-function of the model which we compare to the perturbative result. We do not see convergence, except when using a rescaled coupling β_E to effectively resum the series. For the latter case we see agreement for m/ Λ^─_(Ms) at , β = 2.14, 2.26, 2.38 and 2.50. To three loops m/Λ^─_(Ms) = 3.047(35) at β = 2.50, which is very close to the exact value m/ Λ^─_(Ms) = 2.943. Our last point at β = 2.62 disagrees with this estimate however.

Exploitation of soil biota ecosystem services in agriculture: a bioeconomic approach

24 p.

The oculomotor system: (1) Vertical-horizontal interaction and signal recognition, (2) Time delays and power spectra

In the first section of this thesis, two-dimensional properties of the human eye movement control system were studied. The vertical - horizontal interaction was investigated by using a two-dimensional target motion consisting of a sinusoid in one of the directions vertical or horizontal, and low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion of variable bandwidth (and hence information content) in the orthogonal direction. It was found that the random motion reduced the efficiency of the sinusoidal tracking. However, the sinusoidal tracking was only slightly dependent on the bandwidth of the random motion. Thus the system should be thought of as consisting of two independent channels with a small amount of mutual cross-talk.

These target motions were then rotated to discover whether or not the system is capable of recognizing the two-component nature of the target motion. That is, the sinusoid was presented along an oblique line (neither vertical nor horizontal) with the random motion orthogonal to it. The system did not simply track the vertical and horizontal components of motion, but rotated its frame of reference so that its two tracking channels coincided with the directions of the two target motion components. This recognition occurred even when the two orthogonal motions were both random, but with different bandwidths.

In the second section, time delays, prediction and power spectra were examined. Time delays were calculated in response to various periodic signals, various bandwidths of narrow-band Gaussian random motions and sinusoids. It was demonstrated that prediction occurred only when the target motion was periodic, and only if the harmonic content was such that the signal was sufficiently narrow-band. It appears as if general periodic motions are split into predictive and non-predictive components.

For unpredictable motions, the relationship between the time delay and the average speed of the retinal image was linear. Based on this I proposed a model explaining the time delays for both random and periodic motions. My experiments did not prove that the system is sampled data, or that it is continuous. However, the model can be interpreted as representative of a sample data system whose sample interval is a function of the target motion.

It was shown that increasing the bandwidth of the low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion resulted in an increase of the eye movement bandwidth. Some properties of the eyeball-muscle dynamics and the extraocular muscle "active state tension" were derived.

Tendência temporal do índice de massa corporal em alistados do Brasil (1980-2005)

Apesar da crescente prevalência da obesidade em países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, há pouca evidência da associação com fatores ambientais. Objetivos: Investigar a evolução temporal do IMC em jovens alistados do sexo masculino de 18 anos no Brasil entre 1980 e 2005; identificar pontos específicos de maior variância na série temporal e comparar pontos específicos no tempo, a evolução temporal do IMC com as mudanças socioeconômicas no Brasil. Métodos: O presente estudo explorou uma série temporal de 26 anos em homens brasileiros que se alistaram no período de 1980 a 2005. A amostra compreendeu cerca de 35-40% de todos os jovens brasileiros de 18 anos de idade. O peso corporal e a estatura foram obtidos no momento do exame médico durante o alistamento militar. Todas as mensurações antropométricas foram realizadas por pessoal especializado e treinado. As prevalências do sobrepeso e da obesidade foram calculadas com intervalos de confiança de 95%. Com a finalidade de testar a presença de heterocedasticidade na série do IMC, realizou-se o teste de Multiplicador de Lagrange (LM). Para os pontos no tempo, com oscilações acima da média do IMC, variáveis dummies foram testadas utilizando-se o modelo ARCH (Autoregressivo de Heterocedasticidade Condicionada), com um nível de significância de p <0,05. Para aqueles pontos no tempo com oscilações acima da média do IMC (anos de 1985, 1994 e 2000), variáveis dummy foram incluídos sob a hipótese foi de que a taxa de crescimento do IMC não fosse a mesma ao longo da série temporal. Para as possíveis explicações para os aumentos bruscos na curva do IMC, foram consideradas as alterações nos principais indicadores econômicos do Brasil (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística e Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada). Os fatores econômicos analisados foram: taxa de inflação anual, produção de alimentos, pobreza (%), o consumo de refrigerantes e o rendimento médio anual. Resultados: A prevalência de sobrepeso também passou de 4,5%, em 1980, para 12,5%, em 2005, um aumento de 2,6 vezes, enquanto a prevalência de obesidade aumentou de 0,5%, em 1980, para 1,9%, em 2005, um aumento de quase 300%, mas por comparação internacional estão abaixo da média. Particularmente em 1985-6 e 1994-5, houve um aumento acentuado e significativo do IMC. Em 1985-6, a média do IMC aumentou de 21,4 kg/m2 para 21,5 kg/m2 e, em 1994-5, a média do IMC médio aumentou de 21,7 kg/m2 para 21,9 kg/m2. Nesses dois pontos (1985-1986 e 1994-1995) ocorreram logo após duas grandes mudanças políticas econômicas que aumentaram o poder de compra da população. Em 1985-6, as mudanças foram principalmente relacionadas a fatores econômicos, tais como: a redução do nível de desigualdade social; aumento da renda familiar; redução da pobreza; o controle da inflação; aumento do tempo assistindo televisão e aumento do consumo de alimentos. Em 1994-5, além das mudanças no poder de compra, houve uma modificação na atividade física obrigatória nas escolas. Conclusão: O presente estudo mostrou um aumento abrupto da obesidade na população de homens jovens no Brasil em duas ocasiões durante esta série temporal (anos de 1985-6 e 1994-5), quando uma possível redução no gasto calórico e aumento do consumo de alimentos da população foram observados.

Tsunamis - a model of their generation and propagation

A general solution is presented for water waves generated by an arbitrary movement of the bed (in space and time) in a two-dimensional fluid domain with a uniform depth. The integral solution which is developed is based on a linearized approximation to the complete (nonlinear) set of governing equations. The general solution is evaluated for the specific case of a uniform upthrust or downthrow of a block section of the bed; two time-displacement histories of the bed movement are considered.

An integral solution (based on a linear theory) is also developed for a three-dimensional fluid domain of uniform depth for a class of bed movements which are axially symmetric. The integral solution is evaluated for the specific case of a block upthrust or downthrow of a section of the bed, circular in planform, with a time-displacement history identical to one of the motions used in the two-dimensional model.

Since the linear solutions are developed from a linearized approximation of the complete nonlinear description of wave behavior, the applicability of these solutions is investigated. Two types of non-linear effects are found which limit the applicability of the linear theory: (1) large nonlinear effects which occur in the region of generation during the bed movement, and (2) the gradual growth of nonlinear effects during wave propagation.

A model of wave behavior, which includes, in an approximate manner, both linear and nonlinear effects is presented for computing wave profiles after the linear theory has become invalid due to the growth of nonlinearities during wave propagation.

An experimental program has been conducted to confirm both the linear model for the two-dimensional fluid domain and the strategy suggested for determining wave profiles during propagation after the linear theory becomes invalid. The effect of a more general time-displacement history of the moving bed than those employed in the theoretical models is also investigated experimentally.

The linear theory is found to accurately approximate the wave behavior in the region of generation whenever the total displacement of the bed is much less than the water depth. Curves are developed and confirmed by the experiments which predict gross features of the lead wave propagating from the region of generation once the values of certain nondimensional parameters (which characterize the generation process) are known. For example, the maximum amplitude of the lead wave propagating from the region of generation has been found to never exceed approximately one-half of the total bed displacement. The gross features of the tsunami resulting from the Alaskan earthquake of 27 March 1964 can be estimated from the results of this study.

Efeito da deficiência de tiamina sobre a inflamação, estresse oxidante e migração celular em modelo experimental de sepse

A sepse é uma condição de elevada letalidade muito frequente em pacientes graves e pode estar associada à deficiência de vitamina B1 ou tiamina. Sendo a tiamina fundamental para produção de energia, restauração do poder redutor e síntese de ribose e desoxirribose celulares, o objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o efeito da deficiência de tiamina sobre a resposta inflamatória, através da medida de interleucinas, o estresse oxidante, pela determinação do 4-hidróxi 2-nonenal (4-HNE) um produto de peroxidação de lipídeos de membrana e a migração celular em modelo experimental de sepse. Em um primeiro experimento foi determinada a concentração de pirofosfato de tiamina (PPT) no sangue de camundongos c57bl6 alimentados com ração completa e com ração deficiente em tiamina, para determinação do tempo necessário para a indução de deficiência dessa vitamina. Em um segundo experimento foi utilizada a ligadura e perfuração cecal (CLP) como modelo de sepse em quatro grupos: SHAM ração completa, SHAM ração deficiente em tiamina, CLP ração completa, CLP ração deficiente em tiamina. As concentrações de PPT no sangue foram determinadas por cromatografia líquida de alta eficiência. As dosagens séricas e no líquido peritoneal de TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6, KC e MCP-1/CCL2 foram realizadas por ELISA. O nível de 4-hidroxi,2-nonenal (4-HNE) no fígado foi avaliado por Western Blot. Contagem de leucócitos no sangue e no líquido peritoneal foi feita por microscopia óptica. Foi avaliada a concentração de bactérias no líquido peritoneal. Nos animais alimentados com ração completa a concentração média de PPT foi 303 42,6 nM, e a deficiência de tiamina foi induzida após 10 dias de ingestão da ração pobre em tiamina, quando observou-se concentração de 12,5 2,4 nM. No lavado peritoneal dos animais submetidos à CLP e privados de tiamina observou-se nível significativamente maior de TNF-α e MCP-1. A IL-1β foi menor no sangue do mesmo grupo. A expressão de 4-HNE foi maior nos grupos privados de tiamina. Quanto à celularidade sanguínea, observou-se apenas maior contagem de mononucleares no grupo submetido à CLP e privado de tiamina. No líquido peritoneal, a contagem de leucócitos totais, mononuleares e monócitos foi mais elevada nos grupos CLP, mas sem relação com o tipo de dieta. No entanto, no líquido peritoneal o grupo CLP deficiente em tiamina revelou população bacteriana significativamente menor que o grupo alimentado com ração completa e os grupos sham. Concluiu-se que a deficiência de tiamina associou-se com aumento da morte bacteriana na cavidade peritoneal, aumento do estresse oxidante, e mudanças na resposta inflamatória. Palavras-chave: Tiamina. Sepse. Estresse oxidante. Inflamação. Modelo de sepse.A sepse é uma condição de elevada letalidade muito frequente em pacientes graves e pode estar associada à deficiência de vitamina B1 ou tiamina. Sendo a tiamina fundamental para produção de energia, restauração do poder redutor e síntese de ribose e desoxirribose celulares, o objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o efeito da deficiência de tiamina sobre a resposta inflamatória, através da medida de interleucinas, o estresse oxidante, pela determinação do 4-hidróxi 2-nonenal (4-HNE) um produto de peroxidação de lipídeos de membrana e a migração celular em modelo experimental de sepse. Em um primeiro experimento foi determinada a concentração de pirofosfato de tiamina (PPT) no sangue de camundongos c57bl6 alimentados com ração completa e com ração deficiente em tiamina, para determinação do tempo necessário para a indução de deficiência dessa vitamina. Em um segundo experimento foi utilizada a ligadura e perfuração cecal (CLP) como modelo de sepse em quatro grupos: SHAM ração completa, SHAM ração deficiente em tiamina, CLP ração completa, CLP ração deficiente em tiamina. As concentrações de PPT no sangue foram determinadas por cromatografia líquida de alta eficiência. As dosagens séricas e no líquido peritoneal de TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6, KC e MCP-1/CCL2 foram realizadas por ELISA. O nível de 4-hidroxi,2-nonenal (4-HNE) no fígado foi avaliado por Western Blot. Contagem de leucócitos no sangue e no líquido peritoneal foi feita por microscopia óptica. Foi avaliada a concentração de bactérias no líquido peritoneal. Nos animais alimentados com ração completa a concentração média de PPT foi 303 42,6 nM, e a deficiência de tiamina foi induzida após 10 dias de ingestão da ração pobre em tiamina, quando observou-se concentração de 12,5 2,4 nM. No lavado peritoneal dos animais submetidos à CLP e privados de tiamina observou-se nível significativamente maior de TNF-α e MCP-1. A IL-1β foi menor no sangue do mesmo grupo. A expressão de 4-HNE foi maior nos grupos privados de tiamina. Quanto à celularidade sanguínea, observou-se apenas maior contagem de mononucleares no grupo submetido à CLP e privado de tiamina. No líquido peritoneal, a contagem de leucócitos totais, mononuleares e monócitos foi mais elevada nos grupos CLP, mas sem relação com o tipo de dieta. No entanto, no líquido peritoneal o grupo CLP deficiente em tiamina revelou população bacteriana significativamente menor que o grupo alimentado com ração completa e os grupos sham. Concluiu-se que a deficiência de tiamina associou-se com aumento da morte bacteriana na cavidade peritoneal, aumento do estresse oxidante, e mudanças na resposta inflamatória.

Empatia e trajetórias de desenvolvimento em famílias de jovens do Rio de Janeiro

A empatia, definida como a habilidade de compartilhar, compreender e de expressar o entendimento dos pensamentos e sentimentos dos outros, tem sido amplamente estudada. As trajetórias de desenvolvimento, que representam os diversos caminhos que o desenvolvimento do self pode tomar, também têm sido amplamente estudadas por pesquisadores transculturais, geralmente em contextos prototípicos e envolvendo três modelos de desenvolvimento do self: autonomia, interdependência e autonomia relacionada. Estudos anteriores mostraram que os participantes do Rio de Janeiro tendem para a autonomia relacionada, equlibrando características autônomas e relacionais, que são parte do nosso ambiente sociocultural, no qual habilidades sociais, como a empatia, são requeridas. O desenvolvimento da empatia pode ser relacionado à demanda ambiental por comportamentos, de acordo com aspectos sociodemográficos e valores compartilhados. Esta tese visa apresentar dados de 106 famílias do Rio de Janeiro: pai (idade média M = 51,6 anos), mãe (idade média M = 48,3 anos) e seus filhos jovens (17-25 anos, idade média M = 20,9 anos, 67,9% mulheres). A maioria dos pais, mães e dos filhos tinham Ensino Superior incompleto ou acima. Este estudo objetivou investigar a relação entre empatia e os modelos de desenvolvimento de self e a transmissão transgeracional em contexto não prototípico. O Inventário de Empatia de Falcone e colaboradores (IE) foi utilizado para avaliar a empatia. As Escalas de Desenvolvimento do Self de Kağitçibaşi (EDS), (Self Autônomo (AutS), Self Interdependente (IntS) de Self Autônomo-Relacionado (ARS)) foram utilizadas para avaliar o modelo de desenvolvimento do self. Filhos também responderam quantas horas semanais conviviam com pais e mães. Testes t pareados mostraram, como esperado, que os escores de ARS foram os mais altos para todos os participantes. Correlações de Pearson foram feitas entre os escores de IE e EDS de ambos os pais e filhos. Os escores de ARS de pais, mães e filhos correlacionaram-se positivamente, assim como seus escores de IE. Examinando entre instrumentos, para pais e filhos, altos escores em ARS foram correlacionados a altos escores de IE. O tempo de convívio relatado entre pais e filhos correlacionou-se com IntS e IE dos pais. Para testar o modelo teórico proposto de ARS de pais e mães e dos filhos e a empatia de ambos os pais como preditores da empatia dos filhos, análises de regressão foram utilizadas. A empatia dos pais e das mães previu, separadamente, a empatia dos filhos, mas não em conjunto. Nenhum dos escores ARS dos participantes previu o IE dos filhos. Estes resultados favorecem a hipótese da prevalência de selves autônomo-relacionados no Rio de Janeiro. Pais, mães e filhos mostraram similaridades e tiveram relações importantes entre seus escores de EDS, assim como para o IE. Apesar de o modelo com todos juntos não ter sido significativo, separadamente o IE de pais e de mães predisse o IE dos filhos. Este resultado sugere que a empatia parental pode ter algum efeito sobre a dos filhos jovens, mas não o modelo parental de desenvolvimento do self, inesperadamente. De modo interessante, os pais apresentaram um papel importante no desenvolvimento de seus filhos

Stock-rebuilding time isopleths and constant-F stock-rebuilding plans for overfished stocks

Stock-rebuilding time isopleths relate constant levels of fishing mortality (F), stock biomass, and management goals to rebuilding times for overfished stocks. We used simulation models with uncertainty about FMSY and variability in annual intrinsic growth rates (ry) to calculate rebuilding time isopleths for Georges Bank yellowtail flounder, Limanda ferruginea, and cowcod rockfish, Sebastes levis, in the Southern California Bight. Stock-rebuilding time distributions from stochastic models were variable and right-skewed, indicating that rebuilding may take less or substantially more time than expected. The probability of long rebuilding times increased with lower biomass, higher F, uncertainty about FMSY, and autocorrelation in ry values. Uncertainty about FMSY had the greatest effect on rebuilding times. Median recovery times from simulations were insensitive to model assumptions about uncertainty and variability, suggesting that median recovery times should be considered in rebuilding plans. Isopleths calculated in previous studies by deterministic models approximate median, rather than mean, rebuilding times. Stochastic models allow managers to specify and evaluate the risk (measured as a probability) of not achieving a rebuilding goal according to schedule. Rebuilding time isopleths can be used for stocks with a range of life histories and can be based on any type of population dynamics model. They are directly applicable with constant F rebuilding plans but are also useful in other cases. We used new algorithms for simulating autocorrelated process errors from a gamma distribution and evaluated sensitivity to statistical distributions assumed for ry. Uncertainty about current biomass and fishing mortality rates can be considered with rebuilding time isopleths in evaluating and designing constant-F rebuilding plans.

Destruction-free parameter extraction for a physics-based circuit simulator IGCT model

This paper presents a practical destruction-free parameter extraction methodology for a new physics-based circuit simulator buffer-layer Integrated Gate Commutated Thyristor (IGCT) model. Most key parameters needed for this model can be extracted by one simple clamped inductive-load switching experiment. To validate this extraction method, a clamped inductive load switching experiment was performed, and corresponding simulations were carried out by employing the IGCT model with parameters extracted through the presented methodology. Good agreement has been obtained between the experimental data and simulation results.

The modified Kanerva model for automatic speech recognition

A parallel processing network derived from Kanerva's associative memory theory Kanerva 1984 is shown to be able to train rapidly on connected speech data and recognize further speech data with a label error rate of 0·68%. This modified Kanerva model can be trained substantially faster than other networks with comparable pattern discrimination properties. Kanerva presented his theory of a self-propagating search in 1984, and showed theoretically that large-scale versions of his model would have powerful pattern matching properties. This paper describes how the design for the modified Kanerva model is derived from Kanerva's original theory. Several designs are tested to discover which form may be implemented fastest while still maintaining versatile recognition performance. A method is developed to deal with the time varying nature of the speech signal by recognizing static patterns together with a fixed quantity of contextual information. In order to recognize speech features in different contexts it is necessary for a network to be able to model disjoint pattern classes. This type of modelling cannot be performed by a single layer of links. Network research was once held back by the inability of single-layer networks to solve this sort of problem, and the lack of a training algorithm for multi-layer networks. Rumelhart, Hinton & Williams 1985 provided one solution by demonstrating the "back propagation" training algorithm for multi-layer networks. A second alternative is used in the modified Kanerva model. A non-linear fixed transformation maps the pattern space into a space of higher dimensionality in which the speech features are linearly separable. A single-layer network may then be used to perform the recognition. The advantage of this solution over the other using multi-layer networks lies in the greater power and speed of the single-layer network training algorithm. © 1989.