Time-driven life cycle cost estimation system for product family design

This research develops a design support system, which is able to estimate the life cycle cost of different product families at the early stage of product development. By implementing the system, a designer is able to develop various cost effective product families in a shorter lead-time and minimise the destructive impact of the product family on the environment.

Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

Sustainable housing development through integrated strata utility and transport infrastructure

A comprehensive study was conducted on potential systems of integrated building utilities and transport power solutions that can simultaneously contain rising electricity, hot water and personal transport costs for apartment residents. The research developed the Commuter Energy and Building Utilities System (CEBUS) and quantified the economic, social and environmental benefits of incorporating such a system in future apartment developments. A decision support tool was produced to assist the exploration of the CEBUS design variants. A set of implementation guidelines for CEBUS was also developed for the property development industry.

Is economic valuation of ecosystem services useful to decision-makers? Lessons learned from Australian coastal and marine management

Economic valuation of ecosystem services is widely advocated as a useful decision-support tool for ecosystem management. However, the extent to which economic valuation of ecosystem services is actually used or considered useful in decision-making is poorly documented. This literature blindspot is explored with an application to coastal and marine ecosystems management in Australia. Based on a nation-wide survey of eighty-eight decision-makers representing a diversity of management organizations, the perceived usefulness and level of use of ecosystem services economic valuation in support of coastal and marine management are examined. A large majority of decision-makers are found to be familiar with economic valuation and consider it useful - even necessary - in decision-making, although this varies across decision-makers groups. However, most decision-makers never or rarely use it. The perceived level of importance and trust in estimated dollar values differ across ecosystem services, and are especially high for values that relate to commercial activities. A number of factors are also found to influence respondent’s use of economic valuation. Such findings concur with conclusions from other existing works, and are instructive to reflect on the issue of the usefulness of ESV in environmental management decision-making. They also confirm that the survey-based approach developed in this application represents a sound strategy to examine this issue at various scales and management levels.

The clinical reasoning characteristics of diagnostic experts

The aim of this study was to identify and describe the clinical reasoning characteristics of diagnostic experts. A group of 21 experienced general practitioners were asked to complete the Diagnostic Thinking Inventory (DTI) and a set of 10 clinical reasoning problems (CRPs) to evaluate their clinical reasoning. Both the DTI and the CRPs were scored, and the CRP response patterns of each GP examined in terms of the number and type of errors contained in them. Analysis of these data showed that six GPs were able to reach the correct diagnosis using significantly less clinical information than their colleagues. These GPs also made significantly fewer interpretation errors but scored lower on both the DTI and the CRPs. Additionally, this analysis showed that more than 20% of misdiagnoses occurred despite no errors being made in the identification and interpretation of relevant clinical information. These results indicate that these six GPs diagnose efficiently, effectively and accurately using relatively few clinical data and can therefore be classified as diagnostic experts. They also indicate that a major cause of misdiagnoses is failure to properly integrate clinical data. We suggest that increased emphasis on this step in the reasoning process should prove beneficial to the development of clinical reasoning skill in undergraduate medical students.

Image fusion in GRDSS for Land use Mapping

Image fusion techniques are useful to integrate the geometric detail of a high-resolution panchromatic (PAN) image and the spectral information of a low-resolution multispectral (MSS) image, particularly important for understanding land use dynamics at larger scale (1:25000 or lower), which is required by the decision makers to adopt holistic approaches for regional planning. Fused images can extract features from source images and provide more information than one scene of MSS image. High spectral resolution aids in identification of objects more distinctly while high spatial resolution allows locating the objects more clearly. The geoinformatics technologies with an ability to provide high-spatial-spectral-resolution data helps in inventorying, mapping, monitoring and sustainable management of natural resources. Fusion module in GRDSS, taking into consideration the limitations in spatial resolution of MSS data and spectral resolution of PAN data, provide high-spatial-spectral-resolution remote sensing images required for land use mapping on regional scale. GRDSS is a freeware GIS Graphic User Interface (GUI) developed in Tcl/Tk is based on command line arguments of GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System) with the functionalities for raster analysis, vector analysis, site analysis, image processing, modeling and graphics visualization. It has the capabilities to capture, store, process, analyse, prioritize and display spatial and temporal data.

Discovering compressing serial episodes from event sequences

Most pattern mining methods yield a large number of frequent patterns, and isolating a small relevant subset of patterns is a challenging problem of current interest. In this paper, we address this problem in the context of discovering frequent episodes from symbolic time-series data. Motivated by the Minimum Description Length principle, we formulate the problem of selecting relevant subset of patterns as one of searching for a subset of patterns that achieves best data compression. We present algorithms for discovering small sets of relevant non-redundant episodes that achieve good data compression. The algorithms employ a novel encoding scheme and use serial episodes with inter-event constraints as the patterns. We present extensive simulation studies with both synthetic and real data, comparing our method with the existing schemes such as GoKrimp and SQS. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of these algorithms on event sequences from a composable conveyor system; this system represents a new application area where use of frequent patterns for compressing the event sequence is likely to be important for decision support and control.

Panel discussion: U.S. EPA using modeling and ecosystem services to enhance coastal decision making

This panel will discuss the research being conducted, and the models being used in three current coastal EPA studies being conducted on ecosystem services in Tampa Bay, the Chesapeake Bay and the Coastal Carolinas. These studies are intended to provide a broader and more comprehensive approach to policy and decision-making affecting coastal ecosystems as well as provide an account of valued services that have heretofore been largely unrecognized. Interim research products, including updated and integrated spatial data, models and model frameworks, and interactive decision support systems will be demonstrated to engage potential users and to elicit feedback. It is anticipated that the near-term impact of the projects will be to increase the awareness by coastal communities and coastal managers of the implications of their actions and to foster partnerships for ecosystem services research and applications. (PDF contains 4 pages)

A new adaptive marine policy toolbox to support ecosystem-based approach to management

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Metodologia para avaliação ambiental de bacias hidrográficas com uso de sistemas de suporte à decisão espacial e do indicador pegada ecológica

No atual contexto ambiental é grande a demanda por informações consistentes que subsidiem o planejamento territorial, permitindo realizar avaliações ambientais e desta forma, subsidiar os setores público e privado. Essa demanda pode ser satisfeita com a integração de informações em um sistema, com propriedades e funções de processamento, possibilitando sua utilização em ambiente integrado. Assim, nesta dissertação é proposta uma metodologia para a avaliação ambiental de bacias hidrográficas que atua desde a escolha de indicadores e definição dos pesos de sua contribuição, até a execução de avaliações e espacialização de resultados em ambiente SIG. Esta metodologia é composta por duas fases distintas: avaliação da vulnerabilidade ambiental da bacia hidrográfica a partir do uso de sistemas de suporte à decisão espacial, e, avaliação da sustentabilidade da bacia através do cálculo do indicador Pegada Ecológica. Na primeira fase são adotados sistemas de suporte à decisão, bases de conhecimento, SIG e uma ferramenta que integra estes resultados permitindo a geração de avaliações, análises e/ou cenários prospectivos. Na segunda fase, a sustentabilidade da bacia é retratada a partir do cálculo da pegada ecológica que consiste na contabilização da área que uma população necessita para produzir os recursos consumidos e absorver os resíduos gerados. A comparação entre áreas mais vulneráveis e menos sustentáveis, pode nortear projetos de recuperação e conservação ambiental.

Doação de órgãos: um estudo sobre produção de sentidos

Este trabalho teve por objetivo investigar as representações sociais construídas pelos familiares que, após a morte de seus parentes, ofereceram seus órgãos e tecidos para transplantes. Foi realizada uma pesquisa de campo utilizando como instrumento a entrevista semidirigida, também conhecida pela comunidade científica como pesquisa semiestruturada. Foram entrevistados nove familiares de doadores mortos, um doador vivo e um receptor de órgãos. Dois sentidos emergiram no estudo de campo: um ligado à ideia de vida e outro ligado à ideia de morte. No primeiro, estão as percepções da doação como cura, solidariedade, continuidade e altruísmo; no segundo ocorre principalmente a questão da fragmentação do corpo. Assim, com esta pesquisa foi possível concluir que se as pessoas em vida pudessem falar livremente aos seus familiares sobre seu desejo de serem doadoras, poderiam de certa forma facilitar aos seus familiares a decisão em doar os órgãos no difícil momento da morte. Todos os indivíduos entrevistados neste trabalho expressaram que este fator foi determinante no momento da decisão e tornou a decisão menos estressante. Refletir sobre doação de órgãos no cotidiano permite que o tema saia do anonimato e adentre tanto nas redes de apoio social quanto em instituições hospitalares e de saúde, a ponto de facilitar a decisão posterior de familiares.

Mapeamento digital do uso da terra da cobertura vegetal no Parque Estadual da Serra da Tiririca (PESET) a partir de imagens orbitais de alta resolução.

No Brasil, entre as áreas protegidas e regulamentadas por lei estão às denominadas Unidades de Conservação (UC) e são definidas assim por possuírem características ambientais, estéticas, históricas ou culturais relevantes, importantes na manutenção dos ciclos naturais, demandando regimes especiais de preservação, conservação ou exploração racional dos seus recursos. O Parque Estadual da Serra da Tiririca (PESET), criado pela Lei 1.901, de 29 de novembro de 1991 localizado entre os municípios de Niterói e Maricá no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, enquadra-se na categoria de UC de Proteção Integral abrigando uma extensa faixa de Mata Atlântica em seus limites. Para a presente pesquisa foi feita uma classificação de Uso da terra e cobertura vegetal, refinada por pesquisas feitas através do trabalho de campo, que subsidiou a elaboração da proposta de Zoneamento Ambiental para o parque. O processamento digital da imagem foi feito utilizando-se o sistema SPRING desenvolvido pelo Instituto de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). A confecção dos mapas temáticos foi feita com apoio do sistema Arcgis desenvolvido pela ESRI. O Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG) foi empregado para as modelagens ambientais. Nessa etapa foram consideradas, de forma integrada, a variabilidade taxonômica, a expressão territorial e as alterações temporais verificáveis em uma base de dados georreferenciada. A tecnologia SIG integra operações convencionais de bases de dados, relativas ao armazenamento, manipulação, análise, consulta e apresentação de dados, com possibilidades de seleção e busca de informações e suporte à análise geoestatística, conjuntamente com a possibilidade de visualização de mapas sofisticados e de análise espacial proporcionada pelos mapas. A opção por esta tecnologia busca potencializar a eficiência operacional e permitir planejamento estratégico e administração de problemas, tanto minimizando os custos operacionais como acelerando processos decisórios. O estudo feito através da modelagem computacional do PESET apresentará o emprego das técnicas amplamente utilizadas no monitoramento ambiental, sendo úteis aos profissionais destinados à gestão e aos tomadores de decisão no âmbito das políticas públicas relacionadas à gestão ambiental de Unidades de Conservação.

Project neptune: Improved operation of water distribution networks

Water service providers (WSPs) in the UK have statutory obligations to supply drinking water to all customers that complies with increasingly stringent water quality regulations and minimum flow and pressure criteria. At the same time, the industry is required by regulators and investors to demonstrate increasing operational efficiency and to meet a wide range of performance criteria that are expected to improve year-on-year. Most WSPs have an ideal for improving the operation of their water supply systems based on increased knowledge and understanding of their assets and a shift to proactive management followed by steadily increasing degrees of system monitoring, automation and optimisation. The fundamental mission is, however, to ensure security of supply, with no interruptions and water quality of the highest standard at the tap. Unfortunately, advanced technologies required to fully understand, manage and automate water supply system operation either do not yet exist, are only partially evolved, or have not yet been reliably proven for live water distribution systems. It is this deficiency that the project NEPTUNE seeks to address by carrying out research into 3 main areas; these are: data and knowledge management; pressure management (including energy management); and the associated complex decision support systems on which to base interventions. The 3-year project started in April of 2007 and has already resulted in a number of research findings under the three main research priority areas (RPA). The paper summarises in greater detail the overall project objectives, the RPA activities and the areas of research innovation that are being undertaken in this major, UK collaborative study. Copyright 2009 ASCE.

From design characteristics to system requirements

This report presents the stepwise development of requirements for a process-based design support system aimed at improving the engineering design process. The starting point was the set of characteristics identified in three sources: models of design processes in prescriptive literature; empirical studies of design in descriptive literature; and a case-study in industry. All identified characteristics and derived requirements are listed in this report.

INFORMATION VISUALIZATION TO SUPPORT MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

Information visualization can accelerate perception, provide insight and control, and harness this flood of valuable data to gain a competitive advantage in making business decisions. Although such a statement seems to be obvious, there is a lack in the literature of practical evidence of the benefit of information visualization. The main contribution of this paper is to illustrate how, for a major European apparel retailer, the visualization of performance information plays a critical role in improving business decisions and in extracting insights from Redio Frequency Idetification (RFID)-based performance measures. In this paper, we identify - based on a literature review - three fundamental managerial functions of information visualization, namely as: a communication medium, a knowledge management means, and a decision-support instrument. Then, we provide - based on real industrial case evidence - how information visualization supports business decision-making. Several examples are provided to evidence the benefit of information visualization through its three identified managerial functions. We find that - depending on the way performance information is shaped, communicated, and made interactive - it not only helps decision making, but also offers a means of knowledge creation, as well as an appropriate communication channel. © 2014 World Scientific Publishing Company.