Linguistic models for decision support

Linguistic modelling is a rather new branch of mathematics that is still undergoing rapid development. It is closely related to fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, but knowledge and experience from other fields of mathematics, as well as other fields of science including linguistics and behavioral sciences, is also necessary to build appropriate mathematical models. This topic has received considerable attention as it provides tools for mathematical representation of the most common means of human communication - natural language. Adding a natural language level to mathematical models can provide an interface between the mathematical representation of the modelled system and the user of the model - one that is sufficiently easy to use and understand, but yet conveys all the information necessary to avoid misinterpretations. It is, however, not a trivial task and the link between the linguistic and computational level of such models has to be established and maintained properly during the whole modelling process. In this thesis, we focus on the relationship between the linguistic and the mathematical level of decision support models. We discuss several important issues concerning the mathematical representation of meaning of linguistic expressions, their transformation into the language of mathematics and the retranslation of mathematical outputs back into natural language. In the first part of the thesis, our view of the linguistic modelling for decision support is presented and the main guidelines for building linguistic models for real-life decision support that are the basis of our modeling methodology are outlined. From the theoretical point of view, the issues of representation of meaning of linguistic terms, computations with these representations and the retranslation process back into the linguistic level (linguistic approximation) are studied in this part of the thesis. We focus on the reasonability of operations with the meanings of linguistic terms, the correspondence of the linguistic and mathematical level of the models and on proper presentation of appropriate outputs. We also discuss several issues concerning the ethical aspects of decision support - particularly the loss of meaning due to the transformation of mathematical outputs into natural language and the issue or responsibility for the final decisions. In the second part several case studies of real-life problems are presented. These provide background and necessary context and motivation for the mathematical results and models presented in this part. A linguistic decision support model for disaster management is presented here – formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem and a heuristic solution to it is proposed. Uncertainty of outputs, expert knowledge concerning disaster response practice and the necessity of obtaining outputs that are easy to interpret (and available in very short time) are reflected in the design of the model. Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered in two case studies - first in the context of the evaluation of works of art, where a weak consistency condition is introduced and an adaptation of AHP for large matrices of preference intensities is presented. The second AHP case-study deals with the fuzzified version of AHP and its use for evaluation purposes – particularly the integration of peer-review into the evaluation of R&D outputs is considered. In the context of HR management, we present a fuzzy rule based evaluation model (academic faculty evaluation is considered) constructed to provide outputs that do not require linguistic approximation and are easily transformed into graphical information. This is achieved by designing a specific form of fuzzy inference. Finally the last case study is from the area of humanities - psychological diagnostics is considered and a linguistic fuzzy model for the interpretation of outputs of multidimensional questionnaires is suggested. The issue of the quality of data in mathematical classification models is also studied here. A modification of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method is presented to reflect variable quality of data instances in the validation set during classifier performance assessment. Twelve publications on which the author participated are appended as a third part of this thesis. These summarize the mathematical results and provide a closer insight into the issues of the practicalapplications that are considered in the second part of the thesis.

Decision making and decision support in service systems

This thesis is a literature study that develops a conceptual model of decision making and decision support in service systems. The study is related to the Ä-Logi, Intelligent Service Logic for Welfare Sector Services research project, and the objective of the study is to develop the necessary theoretical framework to enable further research based on the research project results and material. The study first examines the concepts of service and service systems, focusing on understanding the characteristics of service systems and their implications for decision making and decision support to provide the basis for the development of the conceptual model. Based on the identified service system characteristics, an integrated model of service systems is proposed that views service systems through a number of interrelated perspectives that each offer different, but complementary, implications on the nature of decision making and the requirements for decision support in service systems. Based on the model, it is proposed that different types of decision making contexts can be identified in service systems that may be dominated by different types of decision making processes and where different types of decision support may be required, depending on the characteristics of the decision making context and its decision making processes. The proposed conceptual model of decision making and decision support in service systems examines the characteristics of decision making contexts and processes in service systems, and their typical requirements for decision support. First, a characterization of different types of decision making contexts in service systems is proposed based on the Cynefin framework and the identified service system characteristics. Second, the nature of decision making processes in service systems is proposed to be dual, with both rational and naturalistic decision making processes existing in service systems, and having an important and complementary role in decision making in service systems. Finally, a characterization of typical requirements for decision support in service systems is proposed that examines the decision support requirements associated with different types of decision making processes in characteristically different types of decision making contexts. It is proposed that decision support for the decision making processes that are based on rational decision making can be based on organizational decision support models, while decision support for the decision making processes that are based on naturalistic decision making should be based on supporting the decision makers’ situation awareness and facilitating the development of their tacit knowledge of the system and its tasks. Based on the proposed conceptual model a further research process is proposed. The study additionally provides a number of new perspectives on the characteristics of service systems, and the nature of decision making and requirements for decision support in service systems that can potentially provide a basis for further discussion and research, and support the practice alike.

Evaluating land-use related environmental impacts of biomass value chains for decision-support : Comparison and testing of methodologies proposed for environmental life cycle assessment

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is one of the most established quantitative tools for environmental impact assessment of products. To be able to provide support to environmentally-aware decision makers on environmental impacts of biomass value-chains, the scope of LCA methodology needs to be augmented to cover landuse related environmental impacts. This dissertation focuses on analysing and discussing potential impact assessment methods, conceptual models and environmental indicators that have been proposed to be implemented into the LCA framework for impacts of land use. The applicability of proposed indicators and impact assessment frameworks is tested from practitioners' perspective, especially focusing on forest biomass value chains. The impacts of land use on biodiversity, resource depletion, climate change and other ecosystem services is analysed and discussed and the interplay in between value choices in LCA modelling and the decision-making situations to be supported is critically discussed. It was found out that land use impact indicators are necessary in LCA in highlighting differences in impacts from distinct land use classes. However, many open questions remain on certainty of highlighting actual impacts of land use, especially regarding impacts of managed forest land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services such as water regulation and purification. The climate impact of energy use of boreal stemwood was found to be higher in the short term and lower in the long-term in comparison with fossil fuels that emit identical amount of CO2 in combustion, due to changes implied to forest C stocks. The climate impacts of energy use of boreal stemwood were found to be higher than the previous estimates suggest on forest residues and stumps. The product lifetime was found to have much higher influence on the climate impacts of woodbased value chains than the origin of stemwood either from thinnings or final fellings. Climate neutrality seems to be likely only in the case when almost all the carbon of harvested wood is stored in long-lived wooden products. In the current form, the land use impacts cannot be modelled with a high degree of certainty nor communicated with adequate level of clarity to decision makers. The academia needs to keep on improving the modelling framework, and more importantly, clearly communicate to decision-makers the limited certainty on whether land-use intensive activities can help in meeting the strict mitigation targets we are globally facing.

Sulfated fucan as support for antibiotic immobilization

Xylofucoglucuronan from Spatoglossum schröederi algae was tested as a support for antibiotic immobilization. The polysaccharide (20 mg in 6 ml) was first activated using carbodiimide, 1-ethyl-3-(3-dimethylamino-propyl)carbodiimide methiodide (20 mg in 2 ml), under stirring for 1 h at 25ºC and pH from 4.5 to 5.0. After adjusting the pH to 8.0, either gentamicin or amikacin (62.5 mg in 1.25 ml) was then immobilized on this chemically modified polysaccharide with shaking for 24 h in a cold room. Infrared spectra of the activated carbodiimide xylofucoglucuronan showed two bands to carbonyl (C = O at 1647.9 and 1700.7 cm-1) and to amide (CÝ-NH2) groups (1662.8 and 1714.0 cm-1). Microbial characterization of the derivatives was carried out by the disk diffusion method using Staphylococcus aureus or Klebsiella pneumoniae incorporated in Müller Hinton medium. Inhibition halos of bacterial growth were observed for the antibiotics immobilized on this sulfated heteropolysaccharide before and after dialysis. However, the halos resulting from the samples after dialysis were much smaller, suggesting that dialysis removed either non-covalently bound antibiotic or other small molecules. In contrast, bacterial growth was not inhibited by either xylofucoglucuronan or its activated form or by gentamicin or amikacin after dialysis. An additional experiment was carried out which demonstrated that the sulfated heteropolysaccharide was hydrolyzed by the microorganism. Therefore, the antibiotic immobilized on xylofucoglucuronan can be proposed as a controlled drug delivery system. Furthermore, this sulfated heteropolysaccharide can be extracted easily from sea algae Spatoglossum schröederi.

Decision support system for the diagnosis of schizophrenia disorders

Clinical decision support systems are useful tools for assisting physicians to diagnose complex illnesses. Schizophrenia is a complex, heterogeneous and incapacitating mental disorder that should be detected as early as possible to avoid a most serious outcome. These artificial intelligence systems might be useful in the early detection of schizophrenia disorder. The objective of the present study was to describe the development of such a clinical decision support system for the diagnosis of schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SADDESQ). The development of this system is described in four stages: knowledge acquisition, knowledge organization, the development of a computer-assisted model, and the evaluation of the system's performance. The knowledge was extracted from an expert through open interviews. These interviews aimed to explore the expert's diagnostic decision-making process for the diagnosis of schizophrenia. A graph methodology was employed to identify the elements involved in the reasoning process. Knowledge was first organized and modeled by means of algorithms and then transferred to a computational model created by the covering approach. The performance assessment involved the comparison of the diagnoses of 38 clinical vignettes between an expert and the SADDESQ. The results showed a relatively low rate of misclassification (18-34%) and a good performance by SADDESQ in the diagnosis of schizophrenia, with an accuracy of 66-82%. The accuracy was higher when schizophreniform disorder was considered as the presence of schizophrenia disorder. Although these results are preliminary, the SADDESQ has exhibited a satisfactory performance, which needs to be further evaluated within a clinical setting.

Chemotherapy versus support cancer treatment in advanced gastric cancer: a meta-analysis

The aim of the present study was to compare the efficacy of chemotherapy and support treatment in patients with advanced non-resectable gastric cancer in a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials that included a comparison of chemotherapy and support care treatment in patients diagnosed with gastric adenocarcinoma, regardless of their age, gender or place of treatment. The search strategy was based on the criteria of the Cochrane Base, using the following key words: 1) randomized clinical trials and antineoplastic combined therapy or gastrointestinal neoplasm, 2) stomach neoplasm and drug therapy, 3) clinical trial and multi-modality therapy, 4) stomach neoplasm and drug therapy or quality of life, 5) double-blind method or clinical trial. The search was carried out using the Cochrane, Medline and Lilacs databases. Five studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, for a total of 390 participants, 208 (53%) receiving chemotherapy, 182 (47%) receiving support care treatment and 6 losses (1.6%). The 1-year survival rate was 8% for support care and 20% for chemotherapy (RR = 2.14, 95% CI = 1.00-4.57, P = 0.05); 30% of the patients in the chemotherapy group and 12% in the support care group attained a 6-month symptom-free period (RR = 2.33, 95% CI = 1.41-3.87, P < 0.01). Quality of life evaluated after 4 months was significantly better for the chemotherapy patients (34%; RR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.31-3.28, P < 0.01) with tumor mass reduction (RR = 3.32, 95% CI = 0.77-14.24, P = 0.1). Chemotherapy increased the 1-year survival rate of the patients and provided a longer symptom-free period of 6 months and an improvement in quality of life.

Enucleated L929 mouse fibroblasts support invasion and multiplication of Shigella flexneri 5a

Invasive bacteria can induce their own uptake and specify their intracellular localization; hence it is commonly assumed that proximate modulation of host cell transcription is not required for infection. However, bacteria can also modulate, directly or indirectly, the transcription of many host cell genes, whose role in the infection may be difficult to determine by global gene expression. Is the host cell nucleus proximately required for intracellular infection and, if so, for which pathogens and at what stages of infection? Enucleated cells were previously infected with Toxoplasma gondii, Chlamydia psittaci, C. trachomatis, or Rickettsia prowazekii. We enucleated L929 mouse fibroblasts by centrifugation in the presence of cytochalasin B, and compared the infection with Shigella flexneri M90T 5a of nucleated and enucleated cells. Percent infection and bacterial loads were estimated with a gentamicin suppression assay in cultures fixed and stained at different times after infection. Enucleation reduced by about half the percent of infected cells, a finding that may reflect the reduced endocytic ability of L929 cytoplasts. However, average numbers of bacteria and frequency distributions of bacterial numbers per cell at different times were similar in enucleated and nucleated cells. Bacteria with actin-rich tails were detected in both cytoplasts and nucleated cells. Lastly, cytoplasts were similarly infected 2 and 24 h after enucleation, suggesting that short-lived mRNAs were not involved in the infection. Productive S. flexneri infection could thus take place in cells unable to modulate gene transcription, RNA processing, or nucleus-dependent signaling cascades.

Financial support of graduate programs in Brazil: quo vadis?

Graduate programs provide the highest level of formal education and thus are crucial for the development of any country. However, official Brazilian data clearly show a dramatic decrease in the number and values of scholarships available to graduate programs in Brazil over the last few years, despite the importance and growth of such programs. Between 1995 and 2004, investment by the Coordenadoria de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal do Ensino Superior (CAPES, subordinate to the Ministry of Education and Culture) in funding scholarships, corrected for inflation in the period, actually decreased by 51%. In addition, during the period between 1994 and 2004, there was a loss of about 60% in the purchasing power of the graduate scholarships provided by CAPES and the National Council for Science and Technology (CNPq). To reverse this trend, we propose the development of sectorial funding for Brazilian graduate programs to guarantee the availability and continuity of financial support for this strategic activity.

The role of brand identification in alumni support to their alma mater

Universities around the world are facing global competition and challenges to finance their main functions - research and education. This study focused on the role of graduates, alumni, in the success of a university. The purpose of this study was to examine the role of brand identification in alumni willingness to support their alma mater. The research concentrated on finding out what is the relationship between brand identification and it’s antecedents (prestige, satisfaction, interpretation of brand) to alumni willingness to promote university, participate in university activities and support financially by donating money to university’s research. The research method was quantitative and the data was collected via online survey from 569 alumni of a Finnish university. The findings suggest that there is a strong relationship between brand identification and alumni support. The stronger brand identification is, the more willing alumni were to promote university, participate in university activities and support financially. Based on the research, it is beneficial for universities to invest in brand development in order to get alumni to act as ambassadors of the university after their graduation.

Can course format influence the performance of students in an advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) program?

Advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) is a problem-based course that employs simulation techniques to teach the standard management techniques of cardiovascular emergencies. Its structure is periodically revised according to new versions of the American Heart Association guidelines. Since it was introduced in Brazil in 1996, the ACLS has been through two conceptual and structural changes. Detailed documented reports on the effect of these changes on student performance are limited. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of conceptual and structural changes of the course on student ACLS performance at a Brazilian training center. This was a retrospective study of 3266 students divided into two groups according to the teaching model: Model 1 (N = 1181; 1999-2003) and Model 2 (N = 2085; 2003-2007). Model 2 increased practical skill activities to 75% of the total versus 60% in Model 1. Furthermore, the teaching material provided to the students before the course was more objective than that used for Model 1. Scores greater than 85% in the theoretical evaluation and approval in the evaluation of practice by the instructor were considered to be a positive outcome. Multiple logistic regression was used to adjust for potential confounders (specialty, residency, study time, opportunity to enhance practical skills during the course and location where the course was given). Compared to Model 1, Model 2 presented odds ratios (OR) indicating better performance in the theoretical (OR = 1.34; 95%CI = 1.10-1.64), practical (OR = 1.19; 95%CI = 0.90-1.57), and combined (OR = 1.38; 95%CI = 1.13-1.68) outcomes. Increasing the time devoted to practical skills did not improve the performance of ACLS students.

Basic life support knowledge of first-year university students from Brazil

We aimed to evaluate knowledge of first aid among new undergraduates and whether it is affected by their chosen course. A questionnaire was developed to assess knowledge of how to activate the Mobile Emergency Attendance Service - MEAS (Serviço de Atendimento Móvel de Urgência; SAMU), recognize a pre-hospital emergency situation and the first aid required for cardiac arrest. The students were also asked about enrolling in a first aid course. Responses were received from 1038 of 1365 (76.04%) new undergraduates. The questionnaires were completed in a 2-week period 1 month after the beginning of classes. Of the 1038 respondents (59.5% studying biological sciences, 11.6% physical sciences, and 28.6% humanities), 58.5% knew how to activate the MEAS/SAMU (54.3% non-biological vs 61.4% biological, P=0.02), with an odds ratio (OR)=1.39 (95%CI=1.07-1.81) regardless of age, sex, origin, having a previous degree or having a relative with cardiac disease. The majority could distinguish emergency from non-emergency situations. When faced with a possible cardiac arrest, 17.7% of the students would perform chest compressions (15.5% non-biological vs 19.1% biological first-year university students, P=0.16) and 65.2% would enroll in a first aid course (51.1% non-biological vs 74.7% biological, P<0.01), with an OR=2.61 (95%CI=1.98-3.44) adjusted for the same confounders. Even though a high percentage of the students recognized emergency situations, a significant proportion did not know the MEAS/SAMU number and only a minority had sufficient basic life support skills to help with cardiac arrest. A significant proportion would not enroll in a first aid course. Biological first-year university students were more prone to enroll in a basic life support course.

A Web-Based Environmental Toolkit to Support Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the Implementation of Their Own Environmental Management System

With small and medium sized-enterprises (SMEs) taking up the majority of the global businesses, it is important they act in an environmentally responsible manner. Environmental management systems (EMS) help companies evaluate and improve their environmental impact but they often require human, financial, and temporary resources that not all SMEs can provide. This research encompasses interviews with representatives of two small enterprises in Germany to provide insights into their understanding, and knowledge of an EMS and how they perceive their responsibility towards the environment. Furthermore, it presents a toolkit created especially for small and medium-sized enterprises that serves as a simplified version of an EMS based on the ISO 14001 standard and is evaluated by the representatives of the SMEs. Some of the findings are: while being open to the idea of improving their environmental impact, SMEs do not always feel it is their responsibility to do so; they seem to lack the means to fully implement an EMS. The developed toolkit is considered useful and usable and recommendations are drawn for its future enhancement.

Synthesis of Short Oligonucleotides on a Soluble Support by the Phosphoramidite Method

In the last decades, the chemical synthesis of short oligonucleotides has become an important aspect of study due to the discovery of new functions for nucleic acids such as antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs), aptamers, DNAzymes, microRNA (miRNA) and small interfering RNA (siRNA). The applications in modern therapies and fundamental medicine on the treatment of different cancer diseases, viral infections and genetic disorders has established the necessity to develop scalable methods for their cheaper and easier industrial manufacture. While small scale solid-phase oligonucleotide synthesis is the method of choice in the field, various challenges still remain associated with the production of short DNA and RNA-oligomers in very large quantities. On the other hand, solution phase synthesis of oligonucleotides offers a more predictable scaling-up of the synthesis and is amenable to standard industrial manufacture techniques. In the present thesis, various protocols for the synthesis of short DNA and RNA oligomers have been studied on a peracetylated and methylated β-cyclodextrin, and also on a pentaerythritol-derived support. On using the peracetylated and methylated β-cyclodextrin soluble supports, the coupling cycle was simplified by replacement of the typical 5′-O-(4,4′-dimethoxytrityl) protecting group with an acid-labile acetal-protected 5′-O-(1-methoxy-1-methylethyl) group, which upon acid-catalyzed methanolysis released easily removable volatile products. For this reason monomeric building blocks 5′-O-(1-methoxy-1-methylethyl) 3′-(2-cyano-ethyl-N,N-diisopropylphosphoramidite) were synthesized. Alternatively, on using the precipitative pentaerythritol support, novel 2´-O-(2-cyanoethyl)-5´-O-(1-methoxy-1-methylethyl) protected phosphoramidite building blocks for RNA synthesis have been prepared and their applicability by the synthesis of a pentamer was demonstrated. Similarly, a method for the preparation of short RNAs from commercially available 5´-O-(4,4´-dimethoxytrityl)-2´-O-(tert-butyldimethyl-silyl)ribonucleoside 3´-(2-cyanoethyl-N,N-diisopropylphosphoramidite) building blocks has been developed