Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Evaluation of visual stress symptoms in Age-matched Dyslexic, Meares–Irlen syndrome (MIS) and normal adults

AIM To examine the prevalence of dyslexia and Meares–Irlen syndrome (MIS) among female students and determine their level of visual stress in comparison with normal subjects. METHODS A random sample of 450 female medical students of King Saud University Riyadh (age range, 18 - 30 years) responded to a wide range of questions designed to accomplish the aims of this study. The detailed questionnaire consisted of 54 questions with twelve questions enquiring on ocular history and demography of participants while 42 questions were on visual symptoms. Items were categorized into; critical and non-critical questions (CQ and NCQ) and were rated on four point Likert scale. Based on the responses obtained, the subjects were grouped into normal (control), dyslexic with or without MIS (Group 1) and subjects with MIS only (Group 2). Responses were analysed as averages and mean scores were calculated and compared between-groups using one way analysis of variance to evaluate total (TVSS = NCQ + CQ), critical and non-critical visual stress scores. The relationship between categorical variables such as age, handedness and condition were assessed with Chi- Square test. RESULTS The completion rate was 96.8% and majority of the respondents (92%) were normal readers, 2% dyslexic and 6% had MIS. They were age-matched. More than half of the participants had visited an eye care practitioner in the last 2yrs. About 13% were recommended eye exercises and one participant experienced pattern glare. Hand preference was not associated with any condition but Group 1 subjects (3/9, 33%) were significantly more likely to be diagnosed of lazy eye than Group 2 (2/27, 7%) and control (27/414, 5%) subjects. The mean ± SD of TVSS responses were 63 ± 14 but it was 44 ± 9 for CQ and 19 ± 5 for NCQ. Responses from all three variables were normally distributed but the CQ responses were on the average more positive (82%) in Group 2 and less positive (46%) in Group 1 than control. With NCQ, the responses were equally less positive in Group 1 and 2 than control. Group 2 subjects showed significantly higher TVSS (P = 0.002), NCQ (P = 0.006) and CQ (P = 0.008) visual stress scores than control but no difference between Group 1 and control subjects, was observed for all scores (P > 0.05, for all comparisons). CONCLUSION The prevalence of dyslexia and MIS among Saudi female students was 2 and 6%, respectively. Critical questions performed best for assessing visual stress symptoms in dyslexic and MIS subjects. Generally, students with MIS were more sensitive to visual stress than normal students but dyslexics were more likely to present with a lazy eye than MIS and normal readers.

Achieving a national sample of nursing homes: Balancing probability techniques and practicalities

Sampling design is critical to the quality of quantitative research, yet it does not always receive appropriate attention in nursing research. The current article details how balancing probability techniques with practical considerations produced a representative sample of Australian nursing homes (NHs). Budgetary, logistical, and statistical constraints were managed by excluding some NHs (e.g., those too difficult to access) from the sampling frame; a stratified, random sampling methodology yielded a final sample of 53 NHs from a population of 2,774. In testing the adequacy of representation of the study population, chi-square tests for goodness of fit generated nonsignificant results for distribution by distance from major city and type of organization. A significant result for state/territory was expected and was easily corrected for by the application of weights. The current article provides recommendations for conducting high-quality, probability-based samples and stresses the importance of testing the representativeness of achieved samples.

Activities of daily living in children with developmental coordination disorder: Performance, learning, and participation

Background Children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD) face evident motor difficulties in daily functioning. Little is known, however, about their difficulties in specific activities of daily living (ADL). Objective The purposes of this study were: (1) to investigate differences between children with DCD and their peers with typical development for ADL performance, learning, and participation, and (2) to explore the predictive values of these aspects. Design. This was a cross-sectional study. Methods In both a clinical sample of children diagnosed with DCD (n=25 [21 male, 4 female], age range=5-8 years) and a group of peers with typical development (25 matched controls), the children’s parents completed the DCDDaily-Q. Differences in scores between the groups were investigated using t tests for performance and participation and Pearson chi-square analysis for learning. Multiple regression analyses were performed to explore the predictive values of performance, learning, and participation. Results Compared with their peers, children with DCD showed poor performance of ADL and less frequent participation in some ADL. Children with DCD demonstrated heterogeneous patterns of performance (poor in 10%-80% of the items) and learning (delayed in 0%-100% of the items). In the DCD group, delays in learning of ADL were a predictor for poor performance of ADL, and poor performance of ADL was a predictor for less frequent participation in ADL compared with the control group. Limitations A limited number of children with DCD were addressed in this study. Conclusions This study highlights the impact of DCD on children’s daily lives and the need for tailored intervention.

The non-linear response of a gyrostabilized platform: Effects of correction torque time delay and of random inputs

First, the non-linear response of a gyrostabilized platform to a small constant input torque is analyzed in respect to the effect of the time delay (inherent or deliberately introduced) in the correction torque supplied by the servomotor, which itself may be non-linear to a certain extent. The equation of motion of the platform system is a third order nonlinear non-homogeneous differential equation. An approximate analytical method of solution of this equation is utilized. The value of the delay at which the platform response becomes unstable has been calculated by using this approximate analytical method. The procedure is illustrated by means of a numerical example. Second, the non-linear response of the platform to a random input has been obtained. The effects of several types of non-linearity on reducing the level of the mean square response have been investigated, by applying the technique of equivalent linearization and solving the resulting integral equations by using laguerre or Gaussian integration techniques. The mean square responses to white noise and band limited white noise, for various values of the non-linear parameter and for different types of non-linearity function, have been obtained. For positive values of the non-linear parameter the levels of the non-linear mean square responses to both white noise and band-limited white noise are low as compared to the linear mean square response. For negative values of the non-linear parameter the level of the non-linear mean square response at first increases slowly with increasing values of the non-linear parameter and then suddenly jumps to a high level, at a certain value of the non-linearity parameter.

Men´s health behaviour, health beliefs and need for health counselling : A study amongst 40-year-old males from one Helsinki City region

Tavoitteena oli tutkia 40-vuotiaiden miesten terveyskäyttäytymistä, terveysuskomuksia ja miesten saamaa terveysneuvontaa Helsingissä. 273 miestä vastasi kyselyyn ja osallistui terveystutkimuksiin. Terveydentilan perusteella miehet arvioitiin matalan (n=145) ja korkean (n=128) riskin ryhmiin. Khin neliö-testillä tutkittiin elämäntapa- ja riskitekijöitä koetun terveyden (hyvä, keskinkertainen/huono) luokissa ja verrattiin matalan ja korkean riskin ryhmiä em. tekijöiden osalta. Askeltavalla logistisella regressiomallilla analysoitiin tulosmuuttujia taustatekijöiden, terveyskäyttäytymisen, terveysuskomusten ja kliinisten riskitekijöiden avulla sekä arvioitiin oireiden ja vaivojen suhdetta koettuun terveydentilaan. Korkeassa riskissä olevien terveyttä seurattiin vuosina 2001–2004 analysoimalla mini-intervention vaikutusta terveysriskeihin ja elintapoihin varianssianalyysin avulla (ANOVA) (n=46). Matalasta vastausprosentista johtuen (39.6%), ei-vastanneiden aineistoa kerättiin käyttämällä syvähaastattelua (n=28) sekä puhelinkyselyä (n=40). Lopullinen aineisto koostui 341 miehestä. Tulokset osoittivat, että miehillä oli sydän- ja verisuonitautiriskejä. Kaksi kolmesta osallistuneista oli ylipainoisia tai lihavia, yli kolmanneksella vyötärönympärys oli ≥100 cm, ja yli 40%:llä oli diastolinen verenpaine ≥90 mmHg. Yli puolet tupakoi päivittäin ja 40% käytti alkoholia runsaasti. Ristiriitaisuutta ilmensi se, että huolimatta riskitekijöistä noin puolet miehistä koki terveydentilansa hyväksi. Sairauden tai vamman puute, hyvä suun terveydentila ja normaali vyötärönympärys olivat yhteydessä hyväksi koettuun terveydentilaan. Suora yhteys voitiin havaita omaisten tarjoaman neuvonnan ja vähäisen alkoholin käytön välillä. Masennus ja unettomuus olivat voimakkaasti yhteydessä loppuun palamiseen. Miehillä oli erilaisia fyysisiä ja psyykkisiä oireita, jotka korreloivat voimakkaasti masennuksen kanssa. Pieni määrä miehistä koki saaneensa terveysneuvontaa hoitohenkilökunnalta verrattuna perheenjäseniltä saatuun ohjaukseen. Korkeariskisten miesten (n=46) arvot parantuivat merkitsevästi lyhyellä aikavälillä. Kolesteroliarvoja lukuunottamatta ne palautuivat kolmen vuoden kuluttua alkumittausarvoja kohti. Laadullinen tutkimus osoitti, että “ei-vastanneet“ eivät osallistuneet projektiin, sillä he olivat oireettomia tai kiireisiä. Heillä todettiin samoja terveysriskejä kuin projektiin osallistuneilla. Syvähaastattelussa miehet toivat esille kokemuksiaan huolista, vihan tunteista, peloista ja yksinäisyydestä. Hoidonantajien on tärkeää ymmärtää ristiriidat miesten subjektiivisen ja objektiivisen terveydentilan välillä, mikä auttaa havaitsemaan esteitä terveyskäyttäytymiselle. Yhä enemmän tarvitaan yhteistyötä yksityisen ja julkisen terveydenhuollon välillä varmistamaan terveystottumusten jatkuminen miesten keskuudessa.

Let the lighting technology decide

Generating a cultural lighting icon on the Manhattan skyline is a big responsibility and there is no second chance to make it right. In addition, we had to balance a classic timeless lighting design for the building while responding to the lighting criteria of the Times Square district – in a time of energy awareness...

Strong motion compatible source geometry

Strong motion array records are analyzed in this paper to identify and map the source zone of four past earthquakes. The source is represented as a sequence of double couples evolving as ramp functions, triggering at different instants, distributed in a region yet to be mapped. The known surface level ground motion time histories are treated as responses to the unknown double couples on the fault surface. The location, orientation, magnitude, and risetime of the double couples are found by minimizing the mean square error between analytical solution and instrumental data. Numerical results are presented for Chi-Chi, Imperial Valley, San Fernando, and Uttarakashi earthquakes. Results obtained are in good agreement with field investigations and those obtained from conventional finite fault source inversions.

Vibrational phase relaxation of O–H stretch in bulk water: Role of large amplitude angular jumps and negative cross-correlations among the forces on the O–H bond

The ultrafast vibrational phase relaxation of O–H stretch in bulk water is investigated in molecular dynamics simulations. The dephasing time (T2) of the O–H stretch in bulk water calculated from the frequency fluctuation time correlation function (Cω(t)) is in the range of 70–80 femtosecond (fs), which is comparable to the characteristic timescale obtained from the vibrational echo peak shift measurements using infrared photon echo [W.P. de Boeij, M.S. Pshenichnikov, D.A. Wiersma, Ann. Rev. Phys. Chem. 49 (1998) 99]. The ultrafast decay of Cω(t) is found to be responsible for the ultrashort T2 in bulk water. Careful analysis reveals the following two interesting reasons for the ultrafast decay of Cω(t). (A) The large amplitude angular jumps of water molecules (within 30–40 fs time duration) provide a large scale contribution to the mean square vibrational frequency fluctuation and gives rise to the rapid spectral diffusion on 100 fs time scale. (B) The projected force, due to all the atoms of the solvent molecules on the oxygen (FO(t)) and hydrogen (FH(t)) atom of the O–H bond exhibit a large negative cross-correlation (NCC). We further find that this NCC is partly responsible for a weak, non-Arrhenius temperature dependence of the dephasing rate.

Maan magneettikentän dipolimallin toimivuus inklinaatiojakauman perusteella

The magnetic field of the Earth is 99 % of the internal origin and generated in the outer liquid core by the dynamo principle. In the 19th century, Carl Friedrich Gauss proved that the field can be described by a sum of spherical harmonic terms. Presently, this theory is the basis of e.g. IGRF models (International Geomagnetic Reference Field), which are the most accurate description available for the geomagnetic field. In average, dipole forms 3/4 and non-dipolar terms 1/4 of the instantaneous field, but the temporal mean of the field is assumed to be a pure geocentric axial dipolar field. The validity of this GAD (Geocentric Axial Dipole) hypothesis has been estimated by using several methods. In this work, the testing rests on the frequency dependence of inclination with respect to latitude. Each combination of dipole (GAD), quadrupole (G2) and octupole (G3) produces a distinct inclination distribution. These theoretical distributions have been compared with those calculated from empirical observations from different continents, and last, from the entire globe. Only data from Precambrian rocks (over 542 million years old) has been used in this work. The basic assumption is that during the long-term course of drifting continents, the globe is sampled adequately. There were 2823 observations altogether in the paleomagnetic database of the University of Helsinki. The effect of the quality of observations, as well as the age and rocktype, has been tested. For comparison between theoretical and empirical distributions, chi-square testing has been applied. In addition, spatiotemporal binning has effectively been used to remove the errors caused by multiple observations. The modelling from igneous rock data tells that the average magnetic field of the Earth is best described by a combination of a geocentric dipole and a very weak octupole (less than 10 % of GAD). Filtering and binning gave distributions a more GAD-like appearance, but deviation from GAD increased as a function of the age of rocks. The distribution calculated from so called keypoles, the most reliable determinations, behaves almost like GAD, having a zero quadrupole and an octupole 1 % of GAD. In no earlier study, past-400-Ma rocks have given a result so close to GAD, but low inclinations have been prominent especially in the sedimentary data. Despite these results, a greater deal of high-quality data and a proof of the long-term randomness of the Earth's continental motions are needed to make sure the dipole model holds true.

The non-linear response of a gyrostabilized platform: Effects of correction torque time delay and of random inputs

First, the non-linear response of a gyrostabilized platform to a small constant input torque is analyzed in respect to the effect of the time delay (inherent or deliberately introduced) in the correction torque supplied by the servomotor, which itself may be non-linear to a certain extent. The equation of motion of the platform system is a third order nonlinear non-homogeneous differential equation. An approximate analytical method of solution of this equation is utilized. The value of the delay at which the platform response becomes unstable has been calculated by using this approximate analytical method. The procedure is illustrated by means of a numerical example. Second, the non-linear response of the platform to a random input has been obtained. The effects of several types of non-linearity on reducing the level of the mean square response have been investigated, by applying the technique of equivalent linearization and solving the resulting integral equations by using laguerre or Gaussian integration techniques. The mean square responses to white noise and band limited white noise, for various values of the non-linear parameter and for different types of non-linearity function, have been obtained. For positive values of the non-linear parameter the levels of the non-linear mean square responses to both white noise and band-limited white noise are low as compared to the linear mean square response. For negative values of the non-linear parameter the level of the non-linear mean square response at first increases slowly with increasing values of the non-linear parameter and then suddenly jumps to a high level, at a certain value of the non-linearity parameter.

Poetics of the Nameless Middle : Japan and the West in Philosophy and Music of the Twentieth Century

This study investigates the affinities between philosophy, aesthetics, and music of Japan and the West. The research is based on the structuralist notion (specifically, on that found in the narratology of Algirdas Julius Greimas), that the universal grammar functions as an abstract principle, underlying all kinds of discourse. The study thus aims to demonstrate how this grammar is manifested in philosophical, aesthetic, and musical texts and how the semiotic homogeneity of these texts can be explained on this basis. Totality and belongingness are the key philosophical concepts presented herein. As distinct from logocentrism manifested as substantializations of the world of ideas , god or mind, which was characteristic of previous Western paradigms, totality was defined as the coexistence of opposites. Thus Heidegger, Merleau-Ponty, Dōgen, and Nishida often illustrated it by identifying fundamental polarities, such as being and nothing, seer and seen, truth and illusion, etc. Accordingly, totality was schematically presented as an all-encompassing middle of the semiotic square. Similar values can be found in aesthetics and arts. Instead of dialectic syntagms, differentiated unity is considered as paradigmatic and the study demonstrates how this is manifested in traditional Japanese and Heideggerian aesthetics, as well as in the aspects of music of Claude Debussy and Tōru Takemitsu.

Kielellinen erityisvaikeus : oirekuva ja familiaalisuus potilasasiakirjojen perusteella

Goals. Specific language impairment (SLI) has a negative impact on child s speech and language development and interaction. Disorder may be associated with a wide range of comorbid problems. In clinical speech therapy it is important to see the child as a whole so that the rehabilitation can be targeted properly. The aim of this study was to describe the linguistic-cognitive and comorbid symptoms of children with SLI at the age of five, as well as to provide an overwiew of the developmental disorders in the families. The study is part of a larger research project, which will examine paths of development and quality of life of children with SLI as young adults. Methods. The data consisted of patient documents of 100 5-year old children, who were examined in Lastenlinna mainly at 1998. Majority of the subjects were boys, and children s primary diagnosis was either F80.1 or F80.2, which was most common, or both. The diagnosis and the information about the linguistic-cognitive status and comorbid symptoms were collected from reports of medical doctors and experts of other fields, as well as mentions related to familiality. Linguistic-cognitive symptoms were divided into subclasses of speech motor functions, prosessing of language, comprehension of language and use of language. Comorbid symptoms were divided into subclasses of interaction, activity and attention, emotional and behavior problems and neurologic problems. Statistical analyses were based mainly on Pearson s Chi Square test. Results and conclusions. Problems in language processing and speech motor functions were most common of the linguistic-cognitive symptoms. Most of the children had symptoms from two or three symptom classes, and it seemed that girls had more symptoms than boys. Usually children did not have any comorbid symptoms, or had them from one or three symptom classes. Of the comorbid symptoms the most prevalent ones were problems in activity and attention and neurological symptoms, which consisted mostly of motoric and visuomotoric symptoms. The most common of the comorbid diagnoses was F82, specific developmental disorder of motor function. According to literature children with SLI may have problems in mental health, but the results of this study did not confirm that. Children with diagnosis F80.2 had more linguistic-cognitive and comorbid symptoms than children with diagnosis F80.1. The cluster analyses based on all the symtoms revealed four subgroups of the subjects. Of the subjects 85 percent had a positive family history of developmental disorders, and the most prevalent problem in the families was delayed speech development. This study outlined the symptom profile of children with SLI and laid a foundation for the future longitudinal study. The results suggested that there are differences between linguistic-cognitive symptoms of boys and girls, which is important to notice especially when assessing and diagnosing children with SLI.

An improved Monte Carlo scheme for simulation of synthesis of nanoparticles in reverse micelles

An improved Monte Carlo technique is presented in this work to simulate nanoparticle formation through a micellar route. The technique builds on the simulation technique proposed by Bandyopadhyaya et al. (Langmuir 2000, 16, 7139) which is general and rigorous but at the same time very computation intensive, so much so that nanoparticle formation in low occupancy systems cannot be simulated in reasonable time. In view of this, several strategies, rationalized by simple mathematical analyses, are proposed to accelerate Monte Carlo simulations. These are elimination of infructuous events, removal of excess reactant postreaction, and use of smaller micelle population a large number of times. Infructuous events include collision of an empty micelle with another empty one or with another one containing only one molecule or only a solid particle. These strategies are incorporated in a new simulation technique which divides the entire micelle population in four classes and shifts micelles from one class to other as the simulation proceeds. The simulation results, throughly tested using chi-square and other tests, show that the predictions of the improved technique remain unchanged, but with more than an order of magnitude decrease in computational effort for some of the simulations reported in the literature. A post priori validation scheme for the correctness of the simulation results has been utilized to propose a new simulation strategy to arrive at converged simulation results with near minimum computational effort.

Particle dynamics in a turbulent particle–gas suspension at high Stokes number. Part 2. The fluctuating-force model

A fluctuating-force model is developed for representing the effect of the turbulent fluid velocity fluctuations on the particle phase in a turbulent gas–solid suspension in the limit of high Stokes number, where the particle relaxation time is large compared with the correlation time for the fluid velocity fluctuations. In the model, a fluctuating force is incorporated in the equation of motion for the particles, and the force distribution is assumed to be an anisotropic Gaussian white noise. It is shown that this is equivalent to incorporating a diffusion term in the Boltzmann equation for the particle velocity distribution functions. The variance of the force distribution, or equivalently the diffusion coefficient in the Boltzmann equation, is related to the time correlation functions for the fluid velocity fluctuations. The fluctuating-force model is applied to the specific case of a Couette flow of a turbulent particle–gas suspension, for which both the fluid and particle velocity distributions were evaluated using direct numerical simulations by Goswami & Kumaran (2010). It is found that the fluctuating-force simulation is able to quantitatively predict the concentration, mean velocity profiles and the mean square velocities, both at relatively low volume fractions, where the viscous relaxation time is small compared with the time between collisions, and at higher volume fractions, where the time between collisions is small compared with the viscous relaxation time. The simulations are also able to predict the velocity distributions in the centre of the Couette, even in cases in which the velocity distribution is very different from a Gaussian distribution.