PRACTICAL STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR CHEMICAL KINETICS

The Practical Stochastic Model is a simple and robust method to describe coupled chemical reactions. The connection between this stochastic method and a deterministic method was initially established to understand how the parameters and variables that describe the concentration in both methods were related. It was necessary to define two main concepts to make this connection: the filling of compartments or dilutions and the rate of reaction enhancement. The parameters, variables, and the time of the stochastic methods were scaled with the size of the compartment and were compared with a deterministic method. The deterministic approach was employed as an initial reference to achieve a consistent stochastic result. Finally, an independent robust stochastic method was obtained. This method could be compared with the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm developed by Gillespie, 1977. The Practical Stochastic Model produced absolute values that were essential to describe non-linear chemical reactions with a simple structure, and allowed for a correct description of the chemical kinetics.

Development of an HTR-10 model in the Serpent reactor physics code

The use of exact coordinates of pebbles and fuel particles of pebble bed reactor modelling becoming possible in Monte Carlo reactor physics calculations is an important development step. This allows exact modelling of pebble bed reactors with realistic pebble beds without the placing of pebbles in regular lattices. In this study the multiplication coefficient of the HTR-10 pebble bed reactor is calculated with the Serpent reactor physics code and, using this multiplication coefficient, the amount of pebbles required for the critical load of the reactor. The multiplication coefficient is calculated using pebble beds produced with the discrete element method and three different material libraries in order to compare the results. The received results are lower than those from measured at the experimental reactor and somewhat lower than those gained with other codes in earlier studies.

Gearing Towards Omnichannel Grocery Retail Through Business Model Innovation

Technological innovations and the advent of digitalization have led retail business into one of its biggest transformations of all time. Consumer behaviour has changed rapidly and the customers are ever more powerful, demanding, tech-savvy and moving on various plat-forms. These attributes will continue to drive the development and robustly restructure the architecture of value creation in the retail business. The largest retail category, grocery yet awaits for a real disruption, but the signals for major change are already on the horizon. The first wave of online grocery retail was introduced in the mid 1990’s and it throve until millennium. Many overreactions, heavy investments and the burst IT-bubble almost stag-nated the whole industry for a long period of time. The second wave started with a venge-ance around 2010. Some research was carried out during the first wave from a single-viewpoint of online grocery retail, but without a comprehensive approach to online-offline business model integration. Now the accelerating growth of e-business has initiated an increased interest to examine the transformation from traditional business models towards e-business models and their integration on the companies’ traditional business models. This research strove to examine how can we recognize and analyze how digitalization and online channels are affecting the business models of grocery retail, by using business mod-el canvas as an analysis tool. Furthermore business model innovation and omnichannel retail were presented and suggested as potential solutions for these changes. 21 experts in online grocery industry were being interviewed. The thoughts of the informants were being qualitatively analysed by using an analysis tool called the business model canvas. The aim of this research was to portray a holistic view on the Omnichannel grocery retail business model, and the value chain, in which the case company Arina along with its partners are operating. The key conclusions exhibited that online grocery retail business model is not an alterna-tive model nor a substitute for the traditional grocery retail business model, though all of the business model elements are to some extent affected by it, but rather a complementary business model that should be integrated into the prevailing, conventional grocery retail business model. A set of business model elements, such as value proposition and distribu-tion channels were recognized as the most important ones and sources of innovation within these components were being illustrated. Segments for online grocery retail were empiri-cally established as polarized niche markets in contrast of the segmented mass-market of the conventional grocery retail. Business model innovation was proven to be a considera-ble method and a conceptual framework, by which to come across with new value proposi-tions that create competitive advantage for the company in the contemporary, changing business environment. Arina as a retailer can be considered as a industry model innovator, since it has initiated an entire industry in its market area, where other players have later on embarked on, and in which the contributors of the value chain, such as Posti depend on it to a great extent. Consumer behaviour clearly affects and appears everywhere in the digi-talized grocery trade and it drives customers to multiple platforms where retailers need to be present. Omnichannel retail business model was suggested to be the solution, in which the new technologies are being utilized, contemporary consumer behaviour is embedded in decision-making and all of the segments and their value propositions are being served seamlessly across the channels.

Performance measurement model for projects from a strategic management perspective

This research studied the project performance measurement from the perspective of strategic management. The objective was to find a generic model for project performance measurement that emphasizes strategy and decision making. Research followed the guidelines of a constructive research methodology. As a result, the study suggests a model that measures projects with multiple meters during and after projects. Measurement after the project is suggested to be linked to the strategic performance measures of a company. The measurement should be conducted with centralized project portfolio management e.g. using the project management office in the organization. Metrics, after the project, measure the project’s actual benefit realization. During the project, the metrics are universal and they measure the accomplished objectives relation to costs, schedule and internal resource usage. Outcomes of these measures should be forecasted by using qualitative or stochastic methods. Solid theoretical background for the model was found from the literature that covers the subjects of performance measurement, projects and uncertainty. The study states that the model can be implemented in companies. This statement is supported by empirical evidence from a single case study. The gathering of empiric evidence about the actual usefulness of the model in companies is left to be done by the evaluative research in the future.

Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent variables

This paper assesses the empirical performance of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables which generalizes the Hull-White stochastic volatility formula. Using this generalized formula in an ad-hoc fashion to extract two implicit parameters and forecast next day S&P 500 option prices, we obtain similar pricing errors than with implied volatility alone as in the Hull-White case. When we specialize this model to an equilibrium recursive utility model, we show through simulations that option prices are more informative than stock prices about the structural parameters of the model. We also show that a simple method of moments with a panel of option prices provides good estimates of the parameters of the model. This lays the ground for an empirical assessment of this equilibrium model with S&P 500 option prices in terms of pricing errors.

Estimating the Tobit Model with Serial Correlation: an Operational Approach

Several Authors Have Discussed Recently the Limited Dependent Variable Regression Model with Serial Correlation Between Residuals. the Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimators Obtained by Ignoring Serial Correlation Altogether, Have Been Shown to Be Consistent. We Present Alternative Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimators Which Are Obtained by Ignoring Serial Correlation Only Selectively. Monte Carlo Experiments on a Model with First Order Serial Correlation Suggest That Our Alternative Estimators Have Substantially Lower Mean-Squared Errors in Medium Size and Small Samples, Especially When the Serial Correlation Coefficient Is High. the Same Experiments Also Suggest That the True Level of the Confidence Intervals Established with Our Estimators by Assuming Asymptotic Normality, Is Somewhat Lower Than the Intended Level. Although the Paper Focuses on Models with Only First Order Serial Correlation, the Generalization of the Proposed Approach to Serial Correlation of Higher Order Is Also Discussed Briefly.

Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and Option Pricing

This paper develops a general stochastic framework and an equilibrium asset pricing model that make clear how attitudes towards intertemporal substitution and risk matter for option pricing. In particular, we show under which statistical conditions option pricing formulas are not preference-free, in other words, when preferences are not hidden in the stock and bond prices as they are in the standard Black and Scholes (BS) or Hull and White (HW) pricing formulas. The dependence of option prices on preference parameters comes from several instantaneous causality effects such as the so-called leverage effect. We also emphasize that the most standard asset pricing models (CAPM for the stock and BS or HW preference-free option pricing) are valid under the same stochastic setting (typically the absence of leverage effect), regardless of preference parameter values. Even though we propose a general non-preference-free option pricing formula, we always keep in mind that the BS formula is dominant both as a theoretical reference model and as a tool for practitioners. Another contribution of the paper is to characterize why the BS formula is such a benchmark. We show that, as soon as we are ready to accept a basic property of option prices, namely their homogeneity of degree one with respect to the pair formed by the underlying stock price and the strike price, the necessary statistical hypotheses for homogeneity provide BS-shaped option prices in equilibrium. This BS-shaped option-pricing formula allows us to derive interesting characterizations of the volatility smile, that is, the pattern of BS implicit volatilities as a function of the option moneyness. First, the asymmetry of the smile is shown to be equivalent to a particular form of asymmetry of the equivalent martingale measure. Second, this asymmetry appears precisely when there is either a premium on an instantaneous interest rate risk or on a generalized leverage effect or both, in other words, whenever the option pricing formula is not preference-free. Therefore, the main conclusion of our analysis for practitioners should be that an asymmetric smile is indicative of the relevance of preference parameters to price options.

Time Reversibility of Stationary Regular Finite State Markov Chains

We propose an alternate parameterization of stationary regular finite-state Markov chains, and a decomposition of the parameter into time reversible and time irreversible parts. We demonstrate some useful properties of the decomposition, and propose an index for a certain type of time irreversibility. Two empirical examples illustrate the use of the proposed parameter, decomposition and index. One involves observed states; the other, latent states.

L'épigénétique, moteur de l'évolution d'un vertébré asexué

L’objectif de cette thèse est de déterminer l’étendue de la variabilité épigénétique, plus particulièrement du polymorphisme de méthylation de l’ADN, non liée à la variabilité génétique dans les populations asexuées en milieu naturel. Cette évaluation nous a permis de mieux cerner l’importance que peuvent avoir les processus épigénétiques en écologie et en évolution. Le modèle biologique utilisé est l’hybride clonal du complexe gynogénétique Chrosomus eos-neogaeus. Malgré une homogénéité génétique, une importante variabilité phénotypique est observée entre les hybrides d’une même lignée clonale mais retrouvés dans des environnements différents. L’influence des processus épigénétiques apporte une explication sur ce paradoxe. L’épigénétique se définit comme une modification de l’expression des gènes sans changement de la séquence d’ADN. La diversité des phénotypes peut entre autre s’expliquer par des patrons de méthylation différentiels des gènes et/ou des allèles des gènes entre les hybrides génétiquement identiques. La diversité des lignées épiclonales peut quant à elle s’expliquer par la colonisation de plusieurs lignées épiclonales, s’établir en réponse à l’environnement ou de façon aléatoire. Plusieurs méthodes seront utilisées afin de survoler le génome des hybrides clonaux pour mettre en évidence le polymorphisme de méthylation de l’ADN à l’échelle de l’individu et entre les individus de différentes populations.

Applications du processus ancestral avec recombinaison et conversion en génétique statistique

Les diagrammes de transitions d'états ont été réalisés avec le logiciel Latex.

A Coupled 2 × 2D Babcock–Leighton Solar Dynamo Model. I. Surface Magnetic Flux Evolution

The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series of papers we present one such dynamo model, and document its behavior and properties. This first paper focuses on one of the model's key components, namely surface magnetic flux evolution. Using a genetic algorithm, we obtain best-fit parameters of the transport model by least-squares minimization of the differences between the associated synthetic synoptic magnetogram and real magnetographic data for activity cycle 21. Our fitting procedure also returns Monte Carlo-like error estimates. We show that the range of acceptable surface meridional flow profiles is in good agreement with Doppler measurements, even though the latter are not used in the fitting process. Using a synthetic database of bipolar magnetic region (BMR) emergences reproducing the statistical properties of observed emergences, we also ascertain the sensitivity of global cycle properties, such as the strength of the dipole moment and timing of polarity reversal, to distinct realizations of BMR emergence, and on this basis argue that this stochasticity represents a primary source of uncertainty for predicting solar cycle characteristics.

Comment on "Kinetics of spinodal decomposition in the ising model with vacancy diffusion"

In a recent paper [Phys. Rev. B 50, 3477 (1994)], P. Fratzl and O. Penrose present the results of the Monte Carlo simulation of the spinodal decomposition problem (phase separation) using the vacancy dynamics mechanism. They observe that the t1/3 growth regime is reached faster than when using the standard Kawasaki dynamics. In this Comment we provide a simple explanation for the phenomenon based on the role of interface diffusion, which they claim is irrelevant for the observed behavior.

Mean Squared Residue Based Biclustering Algorithms for the Analysis of Gene Expression Data

Computational Biology is the research are that contributes to the analysis of biological data through the development of algorithms which will address significant research problems.The data from molecular biology includes DNA,RNA ,Protein and Gene expression data.Gene Expression Data provides the expression level of genes under different conditions.Gene expression is the process of transcribing the DNA sequence of a gene into mRNA sequences which in turn are later translated into proteins.The number of copies of mRNA produced is called the expression level of a gene.Gene expression data is organized in the form of a matrix. Rows in the matrix represent genes and columns in the matrix represent experimental conditions.Experimental conditions can be different tissue types or time points.Entries in the gene expression matrix are real values.Through the analysis of gene expression data it is possible to determine the behavioral patterns of genes such as similarity of their behavior,nature of their interaction,their respective contribution to the same pathways and so on. Similar expression patterns are exhibited by the genes participating in the same biological process.These patterns have immense relevance and application in bioinformatics and clinical research.Theses patterns are used in the medical domain for aid in more accurate diagnosis,prognosis,treatment planning.drug discovery and protein network analysis.To identify various patterns from gene expression data,data mining techniques are essential.Clustering is an important data mining technique for the analysis of gene expression data.To overcome the problems associated with clustering,biclustering is introduced.Biclustering refers to simultaneous clustering of both rows and columns of a data matrix. Clustering is a global whereas biclustering is a local model.Discovering local expression patterns is essential for identfying many genetic pathways that are not apparent otherwise.It is therefore necessary to move beyond the clustering paradigm towards developing approaches which are capable of discovering local patterns in gene expression data.A biclusters is a submatrix of the gene expression data matrix.The rows and columns in the submatrix need not be contiguous as in the gene expression data matrix.Biclusters are not disjoint.Computation of biclusters is costly because one will have to consider all the combinations of columans and rows in order to find out all the biclusters.The search space for the biclustering problem is 2 m+n where m and n are the number of genes and conditions respectively.Usually m+n is more than 3000.The biclustering problem is NP-hard.Biclustering is a powerful analytical tool for the biologist.The research reported in this thesis addresses the problem of biclustering.Ten algorithms are developed for the identification of coherent biclusters from gene expression data.All these algorithms are making use of a measure called mean squared residue to search for biclusters.The objective here is to identify the biclusters of maximum size with the mean squared residue lower than a given threshold. All these algorithms begin the search from tightly coregulated submatrices called the seeds.These seeds are generated by K-Means clustering algorithm.The algorithms developed can be classified as constraint based,greedy and metaheuristic.Constarint based algorithms uses one or more of the various constaints namely the MSR threshold and the MSR difference threshold.The greedy approach makes a locally optimal choice at each stage with the objective of finding the global optimum.In metaheuristic approaches particle Swarm Optimization(PSO) and variants of Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure(GRASP) are used for the identification of biclusters.These algorithms are implemented on the Yeast and Lymphoma datasets.Biologically relevant and statistically significant biclusters are identified by all these algorithms which are validated by Gene Ontology database.All these algorithms are compared with some other biclustering algorithms.Algorithms developed in this work overcome some of the problems associated with the already existing algorithms.With the help of some of the algorithms which are developed in this work biclusters with very high row variance,which is higher than the row variance of any other algorithm using mean squared residue, are identified from both Yeast and Lymphoma data sets.Such biclusters which make significant change in the expression level are highly relevant biologically.

Fragile-glass behavior of a short-range p-spin model

We propose a short-range generalization of the p-spin interaction spin-glass model. The model is well suited to test the idea that an entropy collapse is at the bottom line of the dynamical singularity encountered in structural glasses. The model is studied in three dimensions through Monte Carlo simulations, which put in evidence fragile glass behavior with stretched exponential relaxation and super-Arrhenius behavior of the relaxation time. Our data are in favor of a Vogel-Fulcher behavior of the relaxation time, related to an entropy collapse at the Kauzmann temperature. We, however, encounter difficulties analogous to those found in experimental systems when extrapolating thermodynamical data at low temperatures. We study the spin-glass susceptibility, investigating the behavior of the correlation length in the system. We find that the increase of the relaxation time is accompanied by a very slow growth of the correlation length. We discuss the scaling properties of off-equilibrium dynamics in the glassy regime, finding qualitative agreement with the mean-field theory.