Assessing individual risk attitudes using field data from lottery games

We use information from the television game show with the highest guaranteed average payoff in the United States, Hoosier Millionaire, to analyze risktaking in a high-stakes experiment. We characterize gambling decisions under alternative assumptions about contestant behavior and preferences, and derive testable restrictions on individual risk attitudes based on this characterization. We then use an extensive sample of gambling decisions to estimate distributions of risk-aversion parameters consistent with the theoretical restrictions and revealed preferences. We find that although most contestants display risk-averse preferences, the extent of the risk aversion implied by our estimates varies substantially with the stakes involved in the different decisions.

Risk communication in clinical trials: a cognitive experiment and a survey.

BACKGROUND: A Royal Statistical Society Working Party recently recommended that "Greater use should be made of numerical, as opposed to verbal, descriptions of risk" in first-in-man clinical trials. This echoed the view of many clinicians and psychologists about risk communication. As the clinical trial industry expands rapidly across the globe, it is important to understand risk communication in Asian countries. METHODS: We conducted a cognitive experiment about participation in a hypothetical clinical trial of a pain relief medication and a survey in cancer and arthritis patients in Singapore. In part 1 of the experiment, the patients received information about the risk of side effects in one of three formats (frequency, percentage and verbal descriptor) and in one of two sequences (from least to most severe and from most to least severe), and were asked about their willingness to participate. In part 2, the patients received information about the risk in all three formats, in the same sequence, and were again asked about their willingness to participate. A survey of preference for risk presentation methods and usage of verbal descriptors immediately followed. RESULTS: Willingness to participate and the likelihood of changing one's decision were not affected by the risk presentation methods. Most patients indicated a preference for the frequency format, but patients with primary school or no formal education were indifferent. While the patients used the verbal descriptors "very common", "common" and "very rare" in ways similar to the European Commission's Guidelines, their usage of the descriptors "uncommon" and "rare" was substantially different from the EU's. CONCLUSION: In this sample of Asian cancer and arthritis patients, risk presentation format had no impact on willingness to participate in a clinical trial. However, there is a clear preference for the frequency format. The lay use of verbal descriptors was substantially different from the EU's.

The increasing impact of human immunodeficiency virus infections, sexually transmitted diseases, and viral hepatitis in Durham County, North Carolina: a call for coordinated and integrated services.

BACKGROUND: Durham County, North Carolina, faces high rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (with or without progression to AIDS) and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). We explored the use of health care services and the prevalence of coinfections, among HIV-infected residents, and we recorded community perspectives on HIV-related issues. METHODS: We evaluated data on diagnostic codes, outpatient visits, and hospitalizations for individuals with HIV infection, STDs, and/or hepatitis B or C who visited Duke University Hospital System (DUHS). Viral loads for HIV-infected patients receiving care were estimated for 2009. We conducted geospatial mapping to determine disease trends and used focus groups and key informant interviews to identify barriers and solutions to improving testing and care. RESULTS: We identified substantial increases in HIV/STDs in the southern regions of the county. During the 5-year period, 1,291 adults with HIV infection, 4,245 with STDs, and 2,182 with hepatitis B or C were evaluated at DUHS. Among HIV-infected persons, 13.9% and 21.8% were coinfected with an STD or hepatitis B or C, respectively. In 2009, 65.7% of HIV-infected persons receiving care had undetectable viral loads. Barriers to testing included stigma, fear, and denial of risk, while treatment barriers included costs, transportation, and low medical literacy. LIMITATIONS: Data for health care utilization and HIV load were available from different periods. Focus groups were conducted among a convenience sample, but they represented a diverse population. CONCLUSIONS: Durham County has experienced an increase in the number of HIV-infected persons in the county, and coinfections with STDs and hepatitis B or C are common. Multiple barriers to testing/treatment exist in the community. Coordinated care models are needed to improve access to HIV care and to reduce testing and treatment barriers.

Outcomes of metallic stents for malignant ureteral obstruction.

PURPOSE: Malignant ureteral obstruction often necessitates chronic urinary diversion and is associated with high rates of failure with traditional ureteral stents. We evaluated the outcomes of a metallic stent placed for malignant ureteral obstruction and determined the impact of risk factors previously associated with increased failure rates of traditional stents. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients undergoing placement of the metallic Resonance® stent for malignant ureteral obstruction at an academic referral center were identified retrospectively. Stent failure was defined as unplanned stent exchange or nephrostomy tube placement for signs or symptoms of recurrent ureteral obstruction (recurrent hydroureteronephrosis or increasing creatinine). Predictors of time to stent failure were assessed using Cox regression. RESULTS: A total of 37 stents were placed in 25 patients with malignant ureteral obstruction. Of these stents 12 (35%) were identified to fail. Progressive hydroureteronephrosis and increasing creatinine were the most common signs of stent failure. Three failed stents had migrated distally and no stents required removal for recurrent infection. Patients with evidence of prostate cancer invading the bladder at stent placement were found to have a significantly increased risk of failure (HR 6.50, 95% CI 1.45-29.20, p = 0.015). Notably symptomatic subcapsular hematomas were identified in 3 patients after metallic stent placement. CONCLUSIONS: Failure rates with a metallic stent are similar to those historically observed with traditional polyurethane based stents in malignant ureteral obstruction. The invasion of prostate cancer in the bladder significantly increases the risk of failure. Patients should be counseled and observed for subcapsular hematoma formation with this device.

A fruit in the hand or two in the bush? Divergent risk preferences in chimpanzees and bonobos.

Human and non-human animals tend to avoid risky prospects. If such patterns of economic choice are adaptive, risk preferences should reflect the typical decision-making environments faced by organisms. However, this approach has not been widely used to examine the risk sensitivity in closely related species with different ecologies. Here, we experimentally examined risk-sensitive behaviour in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and bonobos (Pan paniscus), closely related species whose distinct ecologies are thought to be the major selective force shaping their unique behavioural repertoires. Because chimpanzees exploit riskier food sources in the wild, we predicted that they would exhibit greater tolerance for risk in choices about food. Results confirmed this prediction: chimpanzees significantly preferred the risky option, whereas bonobos preferred the fixed option. These results provide a relatively rare example of risk-prone behaviour in the context of gains and show how ecological pressures can sculpt economic decision making.

A neural biomarker of psychological vulnerability to future life stress.

We all experience a host of common life stressors such as the death of a family member, medical illness, and financial uncertainty. While most of us are resilient to such stressors, continuing to function normally, for a subset of individuals, experiencing these stressors increases the likelihood of developing treatment-resistant, chronic psychological problems, including depression and anxiety. It is thus paramount to identify predictive markers of risk, particularly those reflecting fundamental biological processes that can be targets for intervention and prevention. Using data from a longitudinal study of 340 healthy young adults, we demonstrate that individual differences in threat-related amygdala reactivity predict psychological vulnerability to life stress occurring as much as 1 to 4 years later. These results highlight a readily assayed biomarker, threat-related amygdala reactivity, which predicts psychological vulnerability to commonly experienced stressors and represents a discrete target for intervention and prevention.

Protocol for the "Implementation, adoption, and utility of family history in diverse care settings" study.

BACKGROUND: Risk assessment with a thorough family health history is recommended by numerous organizations and is now a required component of the annual physical for Medicare beneficiaries under the Affordable Care Act. However, there are several barriers to incorporating robust risk assessments into routine care. MeTree, a web-based patient-facing health risk assessment tool, was developed with the aim of overcoming these barriers. In order to better understand what factors will be instrumental for broader adoption of risk assessment programs like MeTree in clinical settings, we obtained funding to perform a type III hybrid implementation-effectiveness study in primary care clinics at five diverse healthcare systems. Here, we describe the study's protocol. METHODS/DESIGN: MeTree collects personal medical information and a three-generation family health history from patients on 98 conditions. Using algorithms built entirely from current clinical guidelines, it provides clinical decision support to providers and patients on 30 conditions. All adult patients with an upcoming well-visit appointment at one of the 20 intervention clinics are eligible to participate. Patient-oriented risk reports are provided in real time. Provider-oriented risk reports are uploaded to the electronic medical record for review at the time of the appointment. Implementation outcomes are enrollment rate of clinics, providers, and patients (enrolled vs approached) and their representativeness compared to the underlying population. Primary effectiveness outcomes are the percent of participants newly identified as being at increased risk for one of the clinical decision support conditions and the percent with appropriate risk-based screening. Secondary outcomes include percent change in those meeting goals for a healthy lifestyle (diet, exercise, and smoking). Outcomes are measured through electronic medical record data abstraction, patient surveys, and surveys/qualitative interviews of clinical staff. DISCUSSION: This study evaluates factors that are critical to successful implementation of a web-based risk assessment tool into routine clinical care in a variety of healthcare settings. The result will identify resource needs and potential barriers and solutions to implementation in each setting as well as an understanding potential effectiveness. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01956773.

Patient beliefs and behaviors about genomic risk for type 2 diabetes: Implications for prevention

Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 2015.Type 2 diabetes is a major health burden in the United States, and population trends suggest this burden will increase. High interest in, and increased availability of, testing for genetic risk of type 2 diabetes presents a new opportunity for reducing type 2 diabetes risk for many patients; however, to date, there is little evidence that genetic testing positively affects type 2 diabetes prevention. Genetic information may not fit patients illness representations, which may reduce the chances of risk-reducing behavior changes. The present study aimed to examine illness representations in a clinical sample who are at risk for type 2 diabetes and interested in genetic testing. The authors used the Common Sense Model to analyze survey responses of 409 patients with type 2 diabetes risk factors. Patients were interested in genetic testing for type 2 diabetes risk and believed in its importance. Most patients believed that genetic factors are important to developing type 2 diabetes (67%), that diet and exercise are effective in preventing type 2 diabetes (95%), and that lifestyle changes are more effective than drugs (86%). Belief in genetic causality was not related to poorer self-reported health behaviors. These results suggest that patients interest in genetic testing for type 2 diabetes might produce a teachable moment that clinicians can use to counsel behavior change.

The UK 9/11 evacuation study: Analysis of survivors’ recognition and response phase in WTC1

The September 11th 2001 impact on the World Trade Centre (WTC) resulted in one of the most significant evacuations of a high-rise building in modern times. The UK High-rise Evacuation Evaluation Database (HEED) study aimed to capture and collate the experiences and behaviours of WTC evacuees in a database, which would facilitate and encourage future research, which in turn would influence the design construction and use of safer built environments. A data elicitation tool designed for the purpose comprised a pre-interview questionnaire followed by a one-to-one interview protocol consisting of free-flow narratives and semi-structured interviews of WTC evacuees. This paper, which is one in a series dealing with issues relating to the successful evacuations of towers 1 and 2, focuses on cue recognition and response patterns within WTC1. Results are presented by vertical floor clusters and include information regarding cues experienced, activities prior and subsequent to occupants first becoming aware that something was wrong, perceived personal risk, time taken to respond and the inter-relationships between them. The results indicate differences in occupant activities across the floor clusters and suggest that these differences can be explained in terms of the perception of risk and the nature and extent of cues received by the participants.

Partitioning, bioavailability and effects of oestrogens and xeno-oestrogens in the aquatic environment

This review provides insights into the distribution and impact of oestrogens and xeno-oestrogens in the aquatic environment and highlights some significant knowledge gaps in our understanding of endocrine disrupting chemicals. Key areas of uncertainty in the assessment of risk include the role of estuarine sediments in mediating the fate and bioavailability of environmental (xeno)oestrogens (notably their transfer to benthic organisms and estuarine food chains), together with evidence for endocrine disruption in invertebrate populations. Emphasis is placed on using published information to interpret the behaviour and effects of a small number of model compounds thought to contribute to oestrogenic effects in nature; namely, the natural steroid 17 beta -oestradiol (E2) and the synthetic hormone 17 alpha -ethinyloestradiol (EE2), together with the alkyl-phenols octyl- and nonyl-phenol (OP, NP) as oestrogen mimics. Individual sections of the review are devoted to sources and concentrations of (xeno)oestrogens in waterways, sediment partitioning and persistence, bioaccumulation rates and routes, assays and biomarkers of oestrogenicity, and, finally, a synopsis of reproductive and ecological effects in aquatic species.

Impacts of Climate Change on European Marine Ecosystems: Observations, Expectations and Indicators

The Northern Hemisphere has been warmer since 1980 than at any other time during the last 2000 years. The observed increase in temperature has been generally higher in northern than in southern European seas, and higher in enclosed than in open seas. Although European marine ecosystems are influenced by many other factors, such as nutrient enrichment and overfishing, every region has shown at least some changes that were most likely attributable to recent climate change. It is expected that within open systems there will generally be (further) northward movement of species, leading to a switch from polar to more temperate species in the northern seas such as the Arctic, Barents Sea and the Nordic Seas, and subtropical species moving northward to temperate regions such as the Iberian upwelling margin. For seas that are highly influenced by river runoff, such as the Baltic Sea, an increase in freshwater due to enhanced rainfall will lead to a shift from marine to more brackish and even freshwater species. If semi-enclosed systems such as the Mediterranean and the Black Sea lose their endemic species, the associated niches will probably be filled by species originating from adjacent waters and, possibly, with species transported from one region to another via ballast water and the Suez Canal. A better understanding of potential climate change impacts (scenarios) at both regional and local levels, the development of improved methods to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections, the construction of usable climate change indicators, and an improvement of the interface between science and policy formulation in terms of risk assessment will be essential to formulate and inform better adaptive strategies to address the inevitable consequences of climate change.

The Influence of Child Protection Orientation on Child Welfare Practice

This article reports the findings of the second part of a two-part research project examining the potential for social workers to make changes in their work with families and children. While social workers in the United Kingdom have been encouraged to shift from a child protection to a child welfare orientation in their practice, such changes have been hampered by professional and organisational concern to manage risk. The research explores the influence of a child protection orientation on practice in child welfare cases. The findings, from two file analyses and interviews with twenty-six social workers, indicate that such an influence is indeed apparent. This is evidenced in two ways; firstly patterns of practice in child welfare cases are similar to those in child protection cases. Secondly, while the majority of social workers express an attitudinal desire to move towards a child welfare orientation, they still prioritise the management of risk in their practice. It is argued that social workers need permission from their employing organisations to make changes in their practice. This, in turn, requires such organisations to state clear goals in line with a child welfare orientation and develop holistic strategies to achieve these.

Impact of the intrinsic motivation on the academic performance through voluntary assignments: An empirical analysis

The students academic performance is a key aspect for all agents involved in a higher education quality program. However, there is no unanimity on how to measure it. Some professionals choose assessing only cognitive aspects while others lean towards assessing the acquisition of certain skills. The need to train increasingly adapted professionals in order to respond to the companies’ demands and being able to compete internationally in a global labour market requires a kind of training that goes beyond memorizing. Critical and logical thinking are amongst written language skills demanded in the field of Social Sciences. The objective of this study is to empirically demonstrate the impact of voluntary assignments on the academic performance of students. Our hypothesis is that students who complete high quality voluntary assignments are those more motivated and, therefore, those with higher grades. An experiment with students from the "Financial Accounting II" during the academic year of 2012/13 at the Business and Economics School of the UCM was carried out. A series of voluntary assessments involving the preparation of accounting essays were proposed in order to develop skills and competencies as a complement to the lessons included in the curriculum of the subject. At the end of the course, the carrying-out or not of the essay together with its critical, reflective quality and style, were compared. Our findings show a relationship between the voluntarily presented papers of quality and the final grade obtained throughout the course. These results show that the students intrinsic motivation is a key element in their academic performance. On the other hand, the teachers role focuses on being a motivating element through the learning process.

Knowledge-based risk assessment under uncertainty in engineering projects

In this paper we describe how an evidential-reasoner can be used as a component of risk assessment of engineering projects using a direct way of reasoning. Guan & Bell (1991) introduced this method by using the mass functions to express rule strengths. Mass functions are also used to express data strengths. The data and rule strengths are combined to get a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of our reasoning process. Then we combine the prior mass and the evidence from the different rules; i.e., the second half of the reasoning process. Finally, belief intervals are calculated to help in identifying the risks. We apply our evidential-reasoner on an engineering project and the results demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of this system in this environment.

The text and the tale: differences between scientific reports and scientists’ reportings on the eruption of Mount Chance, Montserrat

This article looks at the difference between scientists’ written reports and their oral accounts, explanations and stories. The subject of these discourses is the eruption of Mount Chance on Montserrat, a British Overseas Territory in the Eastern Caribbean, and its continued monitoring and reporting. Scientific notions of risk and uncertainty which feature in these texts and tales will subsequently be examined and critiqued. Further to this, this article will end by pointing out that, ironically, the latter - the tale – can in some cases be a more effective and approximate mode of communication with the public than the former – the text.