Séquelles radio-induites et tests prédictifs [Radiation-induced sequelae: toward an individual profile]

The impact of curative radiotherapy depends mainly on the total dose delivered homogenously in the targeted volume. Nevertheless, the dose delivery is limited by the tolerated dose of the surrounding healthy tissues. Two different side effects (acute and late) can occur during and after radiotherapy. Of particular interest are the radiation-induced sequelae due to their irreversibility and the potential impact on daily quality of life. In a population treated in one center with the same technique, it appears that individual radiosensitivity clearly exists. In the hypothesis that genetic is involved in this area of research, lymphocytes seem to be the tissue of choice due to easy accessibility. Recently, low percentage of CD4 and CD8 lymphocyte apoptosis were shown to be correlated with high grade of sequelae. In addition, recent data suggest that patients with severe radiation-induced late side effects possess four or more SNP in candidate genes (ATM, SOD2, TGFB1, XRCC1 et XRCC3) and low radiation-induced CD8 lymphocyte apoptosis in vitro.

Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities that focus on the models' actual predictive ability in finite samples. The tests offer a simple way of evaluatingthe correct specification of predictive densities, either parametric or non-parametric.The results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification in predictive densities. An empirical application to the Survey ofProfessional Forecasters and a baseline Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelshows the usefulness of our methodology.

Utility of the trabecular bone score (TBS) in secondary osteoporosis.

Altered bone micro-architecture is an important factor in accounting for fragility fractures. Until recently, it has not been possible to gain information about skeletal microstructure in a way that is clinically feasible. Bone biopsy is essentially a research tool. High-resolution peripheral Quantitative Computed Tomography, while non-invasive, is available only sparsely throughout the world. The trabecular bone score (TBS) is an imaging technology adapted directly from the Dual Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry (DXA) image of the lumbar spine. Thus, it is potentially readily and widely available. In recent years, a large number of studies have demonstrated that TBS is significantly associated with direct measurements of bone micro-architecture, predicts current and future fragility fractures in primary osteoporosis, and may be a useful adjunct to BMD for fracture detection and prediction. In this review, we summarize its potential utility in secondary causes of osteoporosis. In some situations, like glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis and in diabetes mellitus, the TBS appears to out-perform DXA. It also has apparent value in numerous other disorders associated with diminished bone health, including primary hyperparathyroidism, androgen-deficiency, hormone-receptor positive breast cancer treatment, chronic kidney disease, hemochromatosis, and autoimmune disorders like rheumatoid arthritis. Further research is both needed and warranted to more clearly establish the role of TBS in these and other disorders that adversely affect bone.

Three-Dimensional (3D) Microarchitecture Correlations with 2D Projection Image Gray-Level Variations Assessed by Trabecular Bone Score Using High-Resolution Computed Tomographic Acquisitions: Effects of Resolution and Noise.

The aim of the present study is to determine the level of correlation between the 3-dimensional (3D) characteristics of trabecular bone microarchitecture, as evaluated using microcomputed tomography (μCT) reconstruction, and trabecular bone score (TBS), as evaluated using 2D projection images directly derived from 3D μCT reconstruction (TBSμCT). Moreover, we have evaluated the effects of image degradation (resolution and noise) and X-ray energy of projection on these correlations. Thirty human cadaveric vertebrae were acquired on a microscanner at an isotropic resolution of 93μm. The 3D microarchitecture parameters were obtained using MicroView (GE Healthcare, Wauwatosa, MI). The 2D projections of these 3D models were generated using the Beer-Lambert law at different X-ray energies. Degradation of image resolution was simulated (from 93 to 1488μm). Relationships between 3D microarchitecture parameters and TBSμCT at different resolutions were evaluated using linear regression analysis. Significant correlations were observed between TBSμCT and 3D microarchitecture parameters, regardless of the resolution. Correlations were detected that were strongly to intermediately positive for connectivity density (0.711≤r(2)≤0.752) and trabecular number (0.584≤r(2)≤0.648) and negative for trabecular space (-0.407 ≤r(2)≤-0.491), up to a pixel size of 1023μm. In addition, TBSμCT values were strongly correlated between each other (0.77≤r(2)≤0.96). Study results show that the correlations between TBSμCT at 93μm and 3D microarchitecture parameters are weakly impacted by the degradation of image resolution and the presence of noise.

Validité de la prédiction des durées de séjour en réadaptation à partir du score AVQ

Introduction: En Suisse, toute hospitalisation pour un séjour de¦réadaptation doit être soumise à l'accord préalable du service du¦médecin-conseil de l'assurance du patient. Les assureurs fixent ensuite¦le nombre de jours d'hospitalisation qu'ils s'engagent à financer¦(délai de garantie initial). Dans le canton de Vaud, ces délais sont¦hétérogènes entre assureurs et souvent trop courts, ce qui nécessite¦fréquemment une demande de prolongation de garantie (jusqu'à 80%¦des hospitalisations dans certains services de réadaptation). Un travail¦précédent a montré la validité d'un groupage, basé principalement sur¦l'état fonctionnel du patient à l'admission (score d'activités de la vie¦quotidienne de base [AVQ]), pour prédire les durées de séjour en¦réadaptation. L'objectif de cette étude est d'évaluer si les scores AVQ¦communiqués aux assureurs permettraient d'établir un délai de garantie¦correspondant au plus près à la durée de séjour effective des patients¦en réadaptation, afin de diminuer le nombre de demandes de¦prolongation sans induire une augmentation artificielle des durées de¦séjour.¦Méthode: Les données de 2335 patients admis consécutivement sur¦une durée de trois ans au Centre de Traitement et de Réadaptation¦gériatrique du Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CUTR) ont été¦analysées rétrospectivement. Des délais de garantie fictifs ont été¦calculés à partir de plusieurs algorithmes utilisant des groupages de¦patients basés uniquement sur leurs AVQ à l'admission, et comparés¦aux durées de séjour effectives ainsi qu'aux délais de garantie initiaux¦fournis par les assureurs.¦Résultats: Une règle d'allocation de délais de garantie initiaux proches¦des durées réelles de séjour a pu être produite. Son application au¦CUTR réduirait la proportion estimée de séjours pour lesquels une¦demande de prolongation est nécessaire de 69% à 46% (0,1 EPT¦économisé). La proportion globale de jours en excès accordés par¦l'assureur passerait de 7% à 11%.¦Conclusion: L'utilisation systématique d'une règle d'allocation utilisant¦l'état fonctionnel du patient pour définir le délai de garantie initial¦accordé par les assureurs permettrait de diminuer de façon importante¦le nombre de demandes de prolongation. Cette mesure contribuerait à¦alléger les charges administratives, aussi bien pour les assureurs que¦pour les services de réadaptation. La proportion de jours accordés en¦excès resterait faible, limitant le risque d'augmentation artificielle de la¦durée de séjour.

The French adaptation of the Health of the Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescents Self-Rated Form (F-HoNOSCA-SR): Validation and clinical routine use.

The current study aimed to explore the validity of an adaptation into French of the self-rated form of the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales for Children and Adolescents (F-HoNOSCA-SR) and to test its usefulness in a clinical routine use. One hundred and twenty nine patients, admitted into two inpatient units, were asked to participate in the study. One hundred and seven patients filled out the F-HoNOSCA-SR (for a subsample (N=17): at two occasions, one week apart) and the strengths and difficulties questionnaire (SDQ). In addition, the clinician rated the clinician-rated form of the HoNOSCA (HoNOSCA-CR, N=82). The reliability (assessed with split-half coefficient, item response theory (IRT) models and intraclass correlations (ICC) between the two occasions) revealed that the F-HoNSOCA-SR provides reliable measures. The concurrent validity assessed by correlating the F-HoNOSCA-SR and the SDQ revealed a good convergent validity of the instrument. The relationship analyses between the F-HoNOSCA-SR and the HoNOSCA-CR revealed weak but significant correlations. The comparison between the F-HoNOSCA-SR and the HoNOSCA-CR with paired sample t-tests revealed a higher score for the self-rated version. The F-HoNSOCA-SR was reported to provide reliable measures. In addition, it allows us to measure complementary information when used together with the HoNOSCA-CR.

Transcranial Doppler for predicting delayed cerebral ischemia after subarachnoid hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: Transcranial Doppler (TCD) is widely used to monitor the temporal course of vasospasm after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), but its ability to predict clinical deterioration or infarction from delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) remains controversial. We sought to determine the prognostic utility of serial TCD examination after SAH. METHODS: We analyzed 1877 TCD examinations in 441 aneurysmal SAH patients within 14 days of onset. The highest mean blood flow velocity (mBFV) value in any vessel before DCI onset was recorded. DCI was defined as clinical deterioration or computed tomographic evidence of infarction caused by vasospasm, with adjudication by consensus of the study team. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios for DCI risk after controlling for other risk factors. RESULTS: DCI occurred in 21% of patients (n = 92). Multivariate predictors of DCI included modified Fisher computed tomographic score (P = 0.001), poor clinical grade (P = 0.04), and female sex (P = 0.008). After controlling for these variables, all TCD mBFV thresholds between 120 and 180 cm/s added a modest degree of incremental predictive value for DCI at nearly all time points, with maximal sensitivity by SAH day 8. However, the sensitivity of any mBFV more than 120 cm/s for subsequent DCI was only 63%, with a positive predictive value of 22% among patients with Hunt and Hess grades I to III and 36% in patients with Hunt and Hess grades IV and V. Positive predictive value was only slightly higher if mBFV exceeded 180 cm/s. CONCLUSION: Increased TCD flow velocities imply only a mild incremental risk of DCI after SAH, with maximal sensitivity by day 8. Nearly 40% of patients with DCI never attained an mBFV more than 120 cm/s during the course of monitoring. Given the poor overall sensitivity of TCD, improved methods for identifying patients at high risk for DCI after SAH are needed.

External validation of the ASTRAL score to predict 3- and 12-month functional outcome in the China National Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was recently introduced as a prognostic tool for acute ischemic stroke. It predicts 3-month outcome reliably in both the derivation and the validation European cohorts. We aimed to validate the ASTRAL score in a Chinese stroke population and moreover to explore its prognostic value to predict 12-month outcome. METHODS: We applied the ASTRAL score to acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to 132 study sites of the China National Stroke Registry. Unfavorable outcome was assessed as a modified Rankin Scale score >2 at 3 and 12 months. Areas under the curve were calculated to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by comparing predicted and observed probability of unfavorable outcome using Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Among 3755 patients, 1473 (39.7%) had 3-month unfavorable outcome. Areas under the curve for 3 and 12 months were 0.82 and 0.81, respectively. There was high correlation between observed and expected probability of unfavorable 3- and 12-month outcome (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.964 and 0.963, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: ASTRAL score is a reliable tool to predict unfavorable outcome at 3 and 12 months after acute ischemic stroke in the Chinese population. It is a useful tool that can be readily applied in clinical practice to risk-stratify acute stroke patients.

Weak Form Tests of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from CEE-Countries and Russian Stock Markets

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää Venäjän, Slovakian, Tsekin, Romanian, Bulgarian, Unkarin ja Puolan osakemarkkinoiden heikkojen ehtojen tehokkuutta. Tämä tutkielma on kvantitatiivinen tutkimus ja päiväkohtaiset indeksin sulkemisarvot kerättiin Datastreamin tietokannasta. Data kerättiin pörssien ensimmäisestä kaupankäyntipäivästä aina vuoden 2006 elokuun loppuun saakka. Analysoinnin tehostamiseksi dataa tutkittiin koko aineistolla, sekä kahdella aliperiodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuutta on testattu neljällä tilastollisella metodilla, mukaan lukien autokorrelaatiotesti ja epäparametrinen runs-testi. Tavoitteena on myös selvittääesiintyykö kyseisillä markkinoilla viikonpäiväanomalia. Viikonpäiväanomalian esiintymistä tutkitaan käyttämällä pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Viikonpäiväanomalia on löydettävissä kaikilta edellä mainituilta osakemarkkinoilta paitsi Tsekin markkinoilta. Merkittävää, positiivista tai negatiivista autokorrelaatiota, on löydettävissä kaikilta osakemarkkinoilta, myös Ljung-Box testi osoittaa kaikkien markkinoiden tehottomuutta täydellä periodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden satunnaiskulku hylätään runs-testin perusteella kaikilta muilta paitsi Slovakian osakemarkkinoilla, ainakin tarkastellessa koko aineistoa tai ensimmäistä aliperiodia. Aineisto ei myöskään ole normaalijakautunut minkään indeksin tai aikajakson kohdalla. Nämä havainnot osoittavat, että kyseessä olevat markkinat eivät ole heikkojen ehtojen mukaan tehokkaita

Empirical Tests of Asset Pricing Models in Finnish Stock Market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää mitkä riskitekijät vaikuttavat osakkeiden tuottoihin. Arvopapereina käytetään kuutta portfoliota, jotka ovat jaoteltu markkina-arvon mukaan. Aikaperiodi on vuoden 1987 alusta vuoden 2004 loppuun. Malleina käytetään pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia, arbitraasihinnoitteluteoriaa sekä kulutuspohjaista pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia. Riskifaktoreina kahteen ensimmäiseen malliin käytetään markkinariskiä sekä makrotaloudellisia riskitekijöitä. Kulutuspohjaiseen pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoinoittelumallissa keskitytään estimoimaan kuluttajien riskitottumuksia sekä diskonttaustekijää, jolla kuluttaja arvostavat tulevaisuuden kulutusta. Tämä työ esittelee momenttiteorian, jolla pystymme estimoimaan lineaarisia sekä epälineaarisia yhtälöitä. Käytämme tätä menetelmää testaamissamme malleissa. Yhteenvetona tuloksista voidaan sanoa, että markkinabeeta onedelleen tärkein riskitekijä, mutta löydämme myös tukea makrotaloudellisille riskitekijöille. Kulutuspohjainen mallimme toimii melko hyvin antaen teoreettisesti hyväksyttäviä arvoja.

Can Charisma Be Taught? Tests of Two Interventions

We tested whether we could teach individuals to behave more charismatically, andwhether changes in charisma affected leader outcomes. In Study 1, a mixed-design fieldexperiment, we randomly assigned 34 middle-level managers to a control or anexperimental group. Three months later, we reassessed the managers using theircoworker ratings (Time 1 raters = 343; Time 2 raters = 321). In Study 2, a within-subjectslaboratory experiment, we videotaped 41 MBA participants giving a speech. We thentaught them how to behave more charismatically, and they redelivered the speech6 weeks later. Independent assessors (n = 135) rated the speeches. Results from thestudies indicated that the training had significant effects on ratings of leader charisma(mean D = .62) and that charisma had significant effects on ratings of leaderprototypicality and emergence................................................................................................................................