Estimation of Sample Size and Power For Quantile Regression

Quantile regression (QR) was first introduced by Roger Koenker and Gilbert Bassett in 1978. It is robust to outliers which affect least squares estimator on a large scale in linear regression. Instead of modeling mean of the response, QR provides an alternative way to model the relationship between quantiles of the response and covariates. Therefore, QR can be widely used to solve problems in econometrics, environmental sciences and health sciences. Sample size is an important factor in the planning stage of experimental design and observational studies. In ordinary linear regression, sample size may be determined based on either precision analysis or power analysis with closed form formulas. There are also methods that calculate sample size based on precision analysis for QR like C.Jennen-Steinmetz and S.Wellek (2005). A method to estimate sample size for QR based on power analysis was proposed by Shao and Wang (2009). In this paper, a new method is proposed to calculate sample size based on power analysis under hypothesis test of covariate effects. Even though error distribution assumption is not necessary for QR analysis itself, researchers have to make assumptions of error distribution and covariate structure in the planning stage of a study to obtain a reasonable estimate of sample size. In this project, both parametric and nonparametric methods are provided to estimate error distribution. Since the method proposed can be implemented in R, user is able to choose either parametric distribution or nonparametric kernel density estimation for error distribution. User also needs to specify the covariate structure and effect size to carry out sample size and power calculation. The performance of the method proposed is further evaluated using numerical simulation. The results suggest that the sample sizes obtained from our method provide empirical powers that are closed to the nominal power level, for example, 80%.

Optimal generation scheduling of interconnected wind-coal intensive power systems

Large scale wind power generation complicated with restrictions on the tie line plans may lead to significant wind power curtailment and deep cycling of coal units during the valley load periods. This study proposes a dispatch strategy for interconnected wind-coal intensive power systems (WCISs). Wind power curtailment and cycling of coal units are included in the economic dispatch analysis of regional systems. Based on the day-ahead dispatch results, a tie line power plan adjustment strategy is implemented in the event of wind power curtailment or deep cycling occurring in the economic dispatch model, with the objective of reducing such effects. The dispatch strategy is designed based on the distinctive operation characteristics of interconnected WCISs, and dispatch results for regional systems in China show that the proposed strategy is feasible and can improve the overall system operation performance.

Measurement of electromagnetic pulses generated during interactions of high power lasers with solid targets

A target irradiated with a high power laser pulse, blows off a large amount of charge and as a consequence the target itself becomes a generator of electromagnetic pulses (EMP) owing to high return current flowing to the ground through the target holder. The first measurement of the magnetic field induced by the neutralizing current reaching a value of a few kA was performed with the use of an inductive target probe at the PALS Laser Facility (Cikhardt et al. Rev. Sci. Instrum. 85 (2014) 103507). A full description of EMP generation should contain information on the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the electromagnetic field inside and outside of the interaction chamber. For this reason, we consider the interaction chamber as a resonant cavity in which different modes of EMP oscillate for hundreds of nanoseconds, until the EMP is transmitted outside through the glass windows and EM waves are attenuated. Since the experimental determination of the electromagnetic field distribution is limited by the number of employed antennas, a mapping of the electromagnetic field has to be integrated with numerical simulations. Thus, this work reports on a detailed numerical mapping of the electromagnetic field inside the interaction chamber at the PALS Laser Facility (covering a frequency spectrum from 100 MHz to 3 GHz) using the commercial code COMSOL Multiphysics 5.2. Moreover we carried out a comparison of the EMP generated in the parallelepiped-like interaction chamber used in the Vulcan Petawatt Laser Facility at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, against that produced in the spherical interaction chamber of PALS.

Identification of Microturbine Model for Long-term Dynamic Analysis of Distribution Networks

As one of the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, the long-term effects of microturbines (MTs) on the distribution network has not been fully investigated due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes. This is further complicated by the fact that the parameter and internal data of MTs are not always available to the electric utility, due to different ownerships and confidentiality concerns. To address this issue, a general modeling approach for MTs is proposed in this paper, which allows for the long-term simulation of the distribution network with multiple MTs. First, the feasibility of deriving a simplified MT model for long-term dynamic analysis of the distribution network is discussed, based on the physical understanding of dynamic processes that occurred within MTs. Then a three-stage identification method is developed in order to obtain a piecewise MT model and predict electro-mechanical system behaviors with saturation. Next, assisted with the electric power flow calculation tool, a fast simulation methodology is proposed to evaluate the long-term impact of multiple MTs on the distribution network. Finally, the model is verified by using Capstone C30 microturbine experiments, and further applied to the dynamic simulation of a modified IEEE 37-node test feeder with promising results.

A probabilistic approach to the estimation of regional photovoltaic power generation using meteorological data

In Germany the upscaling algorithm is currently the standard approach for evaluating the PV power produced in a region. This method involves spatially interpolating the normalized power of a set of reference PV plants to estimate the power production by another set of unknown plants. As little information on the performances of this method could be found in the literature, the first goal of this thesis is to conduct an analysis of the uncertainty associated to this method. It was found that this method can lead to large errors when the set of reference plants has different characteristics or weather conditions than the set of unknown plants and when the set of reference plants is small. Based on these preliminary findings, an alternative method is proposed for calculating the aggregate power production of a set of PV plants. A probabilistic approach has been chosen by which a power production is calculated at each PV plant from corresponding weather data. The probabilistic approach consists of evaluating the power for each frequently occurring value of the parameters and estimating the most probable value by averaging these power values weighted by their frequency of occurrence. Most frequent parameter sets (e.g. module azimuth and tilt angle) and their frequency of occurrence have been assessed on the basis of a statistical analysis of parameters of approx. 35 000 PV plants. It has been found that the plant parameters are statistically dependent on the size and location of the PV plants. Accordingly, separate statistical values have been assessed for 14 classes of nominal capacity and 95 regions in Germany (two-digit zip-code areas). The performances of the upscaling and probabilistic approaches have been compared on the basis of 15 min power measurements from 715 PV plants provided by the German distribution system operator LEW Verteilnetz. It was found that the error of the probabilistic method is smaller than that of the upscaling method when the number of reference plants is sufficiently large (>100 reference plants in the case study considered in this chapter). When the number of reference plants is limited (<50 reference plants for the considered case study), it was found that the proposed approach provides a noticeable gain in accuracy with respect to the upscaling method.

Applications of Microwave Antenna Array for Wireless Power Transmission and Radar Imaging in Complex Environment

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Ecological drivers of a vector borne pathogen: distribution and abundance of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato and its vector Ixodes ricinus in Scotland

Vector-borne disease emergence in recent decades has been associated with different environmental drivers including changes in habitat, hosts and climate. Lyme borreliosis is among the most important vector-borne diseases in the Northern hemisphere and is an emerging disease in Scotland. Transmitted by Ixodid tick vectors between large numbers of wild vertebrate host species, Lyme borreliosis is caused by bacteria from the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato species group. Ecological studies can inform how environmental factors such as host abundance and community composition, habitat and landscape heterogeneity contribute to spatial and temporal variation in risk from B. burgdorferi s.l. In this thesis a range of approaches were used to investigate the effects of vertebrate host communities and individual host species as drivers of B. burgdorferi s.l. dynamics and its tick vector Ixodes ricinus. Host species differ in reservoir competence for B. burgdorferi s.l. and as hosts for ticks. Deer are incompetent transmission hosts for B. burgdorferi s.l. but are significant hosts of all life-stages of I. ricinus. Rodents and birds are important transmission hosts of B. burgdorferi s.l. and common hosts of immature life-stages of I. ricinus. In this thesis, surveys of woodland sites revealed variable effects of deer density on B. burgdorferi prevalence, from no effect (Chapter 2) to a possible ‘dilution’ effect resulting in lower prevalence at higher deer densities (Chapter 3). An invasive species in Scotland, the grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis), was found to host diverse genotypes of B. burgdorferi s.l. and may act as a spill-over host for strains maintained by native host species (Chapter 4). Habitat fragmentation may alter the dynamics of B. burgdorferi s.l. via effects on the host community and host movements. In this thesis, there was lack of persistence of the rodent associated genospecies of B. burgdorferi s.l. within a naturally fragmented landscape (Chapter 3). Rodent host biology, particularly population cycles and dispersal ability are likely to affect pathogen persistence and recolonization in fragmented habitats. Heterogeneity in disease dynamics can occur spatially and temporally due to differences in the host community, habitat and climatic factors. Higher numbers of I. ricinus nymphs, and a higher probability of detecting a nymph infected with B. burgdorferi s.l., were found in areas with warmer climates estimated by growing degree days (Chapter 2). The ground vegetation type associated with the highest number of I. ricinus nymphs varied between studies in this thesis (Chapter 2 & 3) and does not appear to be a reliable predictor across large areas. B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence and genospecies composition was highly variable for the same sites sampled in subsequent years (Chapter 2). This suggests that dynamic variables such as reservoir host densities and deer should be measured as well as more static habitat and climatic factors to understand the drivers of B. burgdorferi s.l. infection in ticks. Heterogeneity in parasite loads amongst hosts is a common finding which has implications for disease ecology and management. Using a 17-year data set for tick infestations in a wild bird community in Scotland, different effects of age and sex on tick burdens were found among four species of passerine bird (Chapter 5). There were also different rates of decline in tick burdens among bird species in response to a long term decrease in questing tick pressure over the study. Species specific patterns may be driven by differences in behaviour and immunity and highlight the importance of comparative approaches. Combining whole genome sequencing (WGS) and population genetics approaches offers a novel approach to identify ecological drivers of pathogen populations. An initial analysis of WGS from B. burgdorferi s.s. isolates sampled 16 years apart suggests that there is a signal of measurable evolution (Chapter 6). This suggests demographic analyses may be applied to understand ecological and evolutionary processes of these bacteria. This work shows how host communities, habitat and climatic factors can affect the local transmission dynamics of B. burgdorferi s.l. and the potential risk of infection to humans. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in pathogen dynamics poses challenges for the prediction of risk. New tools such as WGS of the pathogen (Chapter 6) and blood meal analysis techniques will add power to future studies on the ecology and evolution of B. burgdorferi s.l.

COMPREHENSIVE ELECTRICAL/OPTICAL/THERMAL CHARACTERIZATIONS OF HIGH POWER LIGHT EMITTING DIODES AND LASER DIODES

Thermal characterizations of high power light emitting diodes (LEDs) and laser diodes (LDs) are one of the most critical issues to achieve optimal performance such as center wavelength, spectrum, power efficiency, and reliability. Unique electrical/optical/thermal characterizations are proposed to analyze the complex thermal issues of high power LEDs and LDs. First, an advanced inverse approach, based on the transient junction temperature behavior, is proposed and implemented to quantify the resistance of the die-attach thermal interface (DTI) in high power LEDs. A hybrid analytical/numerical model is utilized to determine an approximate transient junction temperature behavior, which is governed predominantly by the resistance of the DTI. Then, an accurate value of the resistance of the DTI is determined inversely from the experimental data over the predetermined transient time domain using numerical modeling. Secondly, the effect of junction temperature on heat dissipation of high power LEDs is investigated. The theoretical aspect of junction temperature dependency of two major parameters – the forward voltage and the radiant flux – on heat dissipation is reviewed. Actual measurements of the heat dissipation over a wide range of junction temperatures are followed to quantify the effect of the parameters using commercially available LEDs. An empirical model of heat dissipation is proposed for applications in practice. Finally, a hybrid experimental/numerical method is proposed to predict the junction temperature distribution of a high power LD bar. A commercial water-cooled LD bar is used to present the proposed method. A unique experimental setup is developed and implemented to measure the average junction temperatures of the LD bar. After measuring the heat dissipation of the LD bar, the effective heat transfer coefficient of the cooling system is determined inversely. The characterized properties are used to predict the junction temperature distribution over the LD bar under high operating currents. The results are presented in conjunction with the wall-plug efficiency and the center wavelength shift.

Physical Design Methodologies for Low Power and Reliable 3D ICs

As the semiconductor industry struggles to maintain its momentum down the path following the Moore's Law, three dimensional integrated circuit (3D IC) technology has emerged as a promising solution to achieve higher integration density, better performance, and lower power consumption. However, despite its significant improvement in electrical performance, 3D IC presents several serious physical design challenges. In this dissertation, we investigate physical design methodologies for 3D ICs with primary focus on two areas: low power 3D clock tree design, and reliability degradation modeling and management. Clock trees are essential parts for digital system which dissipate a large amount of power due to high capacitive loads. The majority of existing 3D clock tree designs focus on minimizing the total wire length, which produces sub-optimal results for power optimization. In this dissertation, we formulate a 3D clock tree design flow which directly optimizes for clock power. Besides, we also investigate the design methodology for clock gating a 3D clock tree, which uses shutdown gates to selectively turn off unnecessary clock activities. Different from the common assumption in 2D ICs that shutdown gates are cheap thus can be applied at every clock node, shutdown gates in 3D ICs introduce additional control TSVs, which compete with clock TSVs for placement resources. We explore the design methodologies to produce the optimal allocation and placement for clock and control TSVs so that the clock power is minimized. We show that the proposed synthesis flow saves significant clock power while accounting for available TSV placement area. Vertical integration also brings new reliability challenges including TSV's electromigration (EM) and several other reliability loss mechanisms caused by TSV-induced stress. These reliability loss models involve complex inter-dependencies between electrical and thermal conditions, which have not been investigated in the past. In this dissertation we set up an electrical/thermal/reliability co-simulation framework to capture the transient of reliability loss in 3D ICs. We further derive and validate an analytical reliability objective function that can be integrated into the 3D placement design flow. The reliability aware placement scheme enables co-design and co-optimization of both the electrical and reliability property, thus improves both the circuit's performance and its lifetime. Our electrical/reliability co-design scheme avoids unnecessary design cycles or application of ad-hoc fixes that lead to sub-optimal performance. Vertical integration also enables stacking DRAM on top of CPU, providing high bandwidth and short latency. However, non-uniform voltage fluctuation and local thermal hotspot in CPU layers are coupled into DRAM layers, causing a non-uniform bit-cell leakage (thereby bit flip) distribution. We propose a performance-power-resilience simulation framework to capture DRAM soft error in 3D multi-core CPU systems. In addition, a dynamic resilience management (DRM) scheme is investigated, which adaptively tunes CPU's operating points to adjust DRAM's voltage noise and thermal condition during runtime. The DRM uses dynamic frequency scaling to achieve a resilience borrow-in strategy, which effectively enhances DRAM's resilience without sacrificing performance. The proposed physical design methodologies should act as important building blocks for 3D ICs and push 3D ICs toward mainstream acceptance in the near future.

Benefits of using a spectral hindcast database for wave power extraction assessment

When considering deployment of wave energy converters at a given site, it is of prime importance from both a technical and an economical point of view to accurately assess the total yearly energy that can be extracted by the given device. Especially, to be considered is the assessment of the efficiency of the device over the widest span of the sea-states spectral bandwidth. Hence, the aim of this study is to assess the biases and errors introduced on extracted power classically computed using spectral data derived from analytical functions such as a JONSWAP spectrum, compared to the power derived using actual wave spectra obtained from a spectral hindcast database.

IMPACT OF PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND WIND GENERATORS ON HARMONIC DISTORTION OF ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

Harmonic distortion on voltages and currents increases with the increased penetration of Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) loads in distribution systems. Wind Generators (WGs), which are source of harmonic currents, have some common harmonic profiles with PEVs. Thus, WGs can be utilized in careful ways to subside the effect of PEVs on harmonic distortion. This work studies the impact of PEVs on harmonic distortions and integration of WGs to reduce it. A decoupled harmonic three-phase unbalanced distribution system model is developed in OpenDSS, where PEVs and WGs are represented by harmonic current loads and sources respectively. The developed model is first used to solve harmonic power flow on IEEE 34-bus distribution system with low, moderate, and high penetration of PEVs, and its impact on current/voltage Total Harmonic Distortions (THDs) is studied. This study shows that the voltage and current THDs could be increased upto 9.5% and 50% respectively, in case of distribution systems with high PEV penetration and these THD values are significantly larger than the limits prescribed by the IEEE standards. Next, carefully sized WGs are selected at different locations in the 34-bus distribution system to demonstrate reduction in the current/voltage THDs. In this work, a framework is also developed to find optimal size of WGs to reduce THDs below prescribed operational limits in distribution circuits with PEV loads. The optimization framework is implemented in MATLAB using Genetic Algorithm, which is interfaced with the harmonic power flow model developed in OpenDSS. The developed framework is used to find optimal size of WGs on the 34-bus distribution system with low, moderate, and high penetration of PEVs, with an objective to reduce voltage/current THD deviations throughout the distribution circuits. With the optimal size of WGs in distribution systems with PEV loads, the current and voltage THDs are reduced below 5% and 7% respectively, which are within the limits prescribed by IEEE.

EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION INTO PARTICULATE MATTER DISTRIBUTION IN CATALYZED PARTICULATE FILTERS USING A 3D TERAHERTZ WAVE SCANNER

The particulate matter distribution (PM) trends that exist in catalyzed particulate filters (CPFs) after loading, passive oxidation, active regeneration, and post loading conditions are not clearly understood. These data are required to optimize the operation of CPFs, prevent damage to the CPFs caused by non-uniform distributions, and develop accurate CPF models. To develop an understanding of PM distribution trends, multiple tests were conducted and the PM distribution was measured in three dimensions using a terahertz wave scanner. The results of this work indicate that loading, passive oxidation, active regeneration, and post loading can all cause non-uniform PM distributions. The density of the PM in the substrate after loading and the amount of PM that is oxidized during passive oxidations and active regenerations affect the uniformity of the distribution. Post loading that occurs after active regenerations result in distributions that are less uniform than post loading that occurs after passive oxidations.

Study on Bivariate Normal Distribution

Let (X, Y) be bivariate normal random vectors which represent the responses as a result of Treatment 1 and Treatment 2. The statistical inference about the bivariate normal distribution parameters involving missing data with both treatment samples is considered. Assuming the correlation coefficient ρ of the bivariate population is known, the MLE of population means and variance (ξ, η, and σ2) are obtained. Inferences about these parameters are presented. Procedures of constructing confidence interval for the difference of population means ξ – η and testing hypothesis about ξ – η are established. The performances of the new estimators and testing procedure are compared numerically with the method proposed in Looney and Jones (2003) on the basis of extensive Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation studies indicate that the testing power of the method proposed in this thesis study is higher.

Hybrid Power System Intelligent Operation and Protection Involving Distributed Architectures and Pulsed Loads

Efficient and reliable techniques for power delivery and utilization are needed to account for the increased penetration of renewable energy sources in electric power systems. Such methods are also required for current and future demands of plug-in electric vehicles and high-power electronic loads. Distributed control and optimal power network architectures will lead to viable solutions to the energy management issue with high level of reliability and security. This dissertation is aimed at developing and verifying new techniques for distributed control by deploying DC microgrids, involving distributed renewable generation and energy storage, through the operating AC power system. To achieve the findings of this dissertation, an energy system architecture was developed involving AC and DC networks, both with distributed generations and demands. The various components of the DC microgrid were designed and built including DC-DC converters, voltage source inverters (VSI) and AC-DC rectifiers featuring novel designs developed by the candidate. New control techniques were developed and implemented to maximize the operating range of the power conditioning units used for integrating renewable energy into the DC bus. The control and operation of the DC microgrids in the hybrid AC/DC system involve intelligent energy management. Real-time energy management algorithms were developed and experimentally verified. These algorithms are based on intelligent decision-making elements along with an optimization process. This was aimed at enhancing the overall performance of the power system and mitigating the effect of heavy non-linear loads with variable intensity and duration. The developed algorithms were also used for managing the charging/discharging process of plug-in electric vehicle emulators. The protection of the proposed hybrid AC/DC power system was studied. Fault analysis and protection scheme and coordination, in addition to ideas on how to retrofit currently available protection concepts and devices for AC systems in a DC network, were presented. A study was also conducted on the effect of changing the distribution architecture and distributing the storage assets on the various zones of the network on the system’s dynamic security and stability. A practical shipboard power system was studied as an example of a hybrid AC/DC power system involving pulsed loads. Generally, the proposed hybrid AC/DC power system, besides most of the ideas, controls and algorithms presented in this dissertation, were experimentally verified at the Smart Grid Testbed, Energy Systems Research Laboratory. All the developments in this dissertation were experimentally verified at the Smart Grid Testbed.

Assessing the contribution of microgrids to the reliability of distribution networks

The emergence of microgeneration has recently lead to the concept of microgrid, a network of LV consumers and producers able to export electric energy in some circumstances and also to work in an isolated way in emergency situations. Research on the organization of microgrids, control devices, functionalities and other technical aspects is presently being carried out, in order to establish a consistent technical framework to support the concept. The successful development of the microgrid concept implies the definition of a suitable regulation for its integration on distribution systems. In order to define such a regulation, the identification of costs and benefits that microgrids may bring is a crucial task. Actually, this is the basis for a discussion about the way global costs could be divided among the different agents that benefit from the development of microgrids. Among other aspects, the effect of microgrids on the reliability of the distribution network has been pointed out as an important advantage, due to the ability of isolated operation in emergency situations. This paper identifies the situations where the existence of a microgrid may reduce the interruption rate and duration and thus improve the reliability indices of the distribution network. The relevant expressions necessary to quantify the reliability are presented. An illustrative example is included, where the global influence of the microgrid in the reliability is commented.