Previsão de inflação utilizando modelos de séries temporais

Este trabalho compara modelos de séries temporais para a projeção de curto prazo da inflação brasileira, medida pelo Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA). Foram considerados modelos SARIMA de Box e Jenkins e modelos estruturais em espaço de estados, estimados pelo filtro de Kalman. Para a estimação dos modelos, foi utilizada a série do IPCA na base mensal, de março de 2003 a março de 2012. Os modelos SARIMA foram estimados no EVIEWS e os modelos estruturais no STAMP. Para a validação dos modelos para fora da amostra, foram consideradas as previsões 1 passo à frente para o período de abril de 2012 a março de 2013, tomando como base os principais critérios de avaliação de capacidade preditiva propostos na literatura. A conclusão do trabalho é que, embora o modelo estrutural permita, decompor a série em componentes com interpretação direta e estudá-las separadamente, além de incorporar variáveis explicativas de forma simples, o desempenho do modelo SARIMA para prever a inflação brasileira foi superior, no período e horizonte considerados. Outro importante aspecto positivo é que a implementação de um modelo SARIMA é imediata, e previsões a partir dele são obtidas de forma simples e direta.

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Predição de promotores de Bacillus subtilis usando técnicas de aprendizado de máquina

One of the most important goals of bioinformatics is the ability to identify genes in uncharacterized DNA sequences on world wide database. Gene expression on prokaryotes initiates when the RNA-polymerase enzyme interacts with DNA regions called promoters. In these regions are located the main regulatory elements of the transcription process. Despite the improvement of in vitro techniques for molecular biology analysis, characterizing and identifying a great number of promoters on a genome is a complex task. Nevertheless, the main drawback is the absence of a large set of promoters to identify conserved patterns among the species. Hence, a in silico method to predict them on any species is a challenge. Improved promoter prediction methods can be one step towards developing more reliable ab initio gene prediction methods. In this work, we present an empirical comparison of Machine Learning (ML) techniques such as Na¨ýve Bayes, Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines and Neural Networks, Voted Perceptron, PART, k-NN and and ensemble approaches (Bagging and Boosting) to the task of predicting Bacillus subtilis. In order to do so, we first built two data set of promoter and nonpromoter sequences for B. subtilis and a hybrid one. In order to evaluate of ML methods a cross-validation procedure is applied. Good results were obtained with methods of ML like SVM and Naïve Bayes using B. subtilis. However, we have not reached good results on hybrid database

Avaliação de desempenho da codificação wavelet em canais seletivos em frequência

Wavelet coding has emerged as an alternative coding technique to minimize the fading effects of wireless channels. This work evaluates the performance of wavelet coding, in terms of bit error probability, over time-varying, frequency-selective multipath Rayleigh fading channels. The adopted propagation model follows the COST207 norm, main international standards reference for GSM, UMTS, and EDGE applications. The results show the wavelet coding s efficiency against the inter symbolic interference which characterizes these communication scenarios. This robustness of the presented technique enables its usage in different environments, bringing it one step closer to be applied in practical wireless communication systems

Desenvolvimento de uma desfribadeira para obtenção da fibra da folha do abacaxi

In 1998 the first decorticator was developed in the Textile Engineering Laboratory and patented for the purpose of extracting fibres from pineapple leaves, with the financial help from CNPq and BNB. The objective of the present work was to develop an automatic decorticator different from the first one with a semiautomatic system of decortication with automatic feeding of the leaves and collection of the extracted fibres. The system is started through a command system that passes information to two engines, one for starting the beater cylinder and the other for the feeding of the leaves as well as the extraction of the decorticated fibres automatically. This in turn introduces the leaves between a knife and a beater cylinder with twenty blades (the previous one had only 8 blades). These blades are supported by equidistant flanges with a central transmission axis that would help in increasing the number of beatings of the leaves. In the present system the operator has to place the leaves on the rotating endless feeding belt and collect the extracted leaves that are being carried out through another endless belt. The pulp resulted form the extraction is collected in a tray through a collector. The feeding of the leaves as well as the extraction of the fibres is controlled automatically by varying the velocity of the cylinders. The semi-automatic decorticator basically composed of a chassis made out of iron bars (profile L) with 200cm length, 91 cm of height 68 cm of width. The decorticator weighs around 300Kg. It was observed that the increase in the number of blades from 8 to twenty in the beater cylinder reduced the turbulence inside the decorticator, which helped to improve the removal of the fibres without any problems as well as the quality of the fibres. From the studies carried out, from each leaf 2,8 to 4,5% of fibres can be extracted. This gives around 4 to 5 tons of fibres per hectare, which is more than that of cotton production per hectare. This quantity with no doubt could generate jobs to the people not only on the production of the fibres but also on their application in different areas

Bidens mosaic virus: detecção via RT-PCR e identificação de Galinsoga parviflora como um novo hospedeiro natural do vírus

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Diapocynin versus apocynin as pretranscriptional inhibitors of NADPH oxidase and cytokine production by peripheral blood mononuclear cells

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Análise do custo de produção e lucratividade na cultura de pinha (Annona squamosa L.) na região de Jales-SP, ano agrícola 2001-2002

Este trabalho foi realizado na região de Jales-SP, com objetivo de analisar economicamente o cultivo da pinha. Para estimar a matriz de coeficientes técnicos, os custos de produção, os indicadores de lucratividade e os dados foram levantados com cinco produtores de pinha, no ano de 2001-2002. Apesar do custo superior do sistema de produção tecnificado quando comparado com o convencional na cultura da pinha, o sistema tecnificado apresentou-se mais rentável para os produtores rurais da região de Jales, com um lucro operacional por hectare de R$5.301,07 (US$2.031,06) e para o convencional de R$1.720,48 (US$659,19). Isto se deve principalmente por proporcionar benefícios, como antecipação da colheita para períodos de melhores preços, melhoria na qualidade e na quantidade dos frutos.

Estudo de Fractalidade e Evolução Dinâmica de Sistemas Complexos

In this work, the study of some complex systems is done with use of two distinct procedures. In the first part, we have studied the usage of Wavelet transform on analysis and characterization of (multi)fractal time series. We have test the reliability of Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima method (WTMM) in respect to the multifractal formalism, trough the calculation of the singularity spectrum of time series whose fractality is well known a priori. Next, we have use the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima method to study the fractality of lungs crackles sounds, a biological time series. Since the crackles sounds are due to the opening of a pulmonary airway bronchi, bronchioles and alveoli which was initially closed, we can get information on the phenomenon of the airway opening cascade of the whole lung. Once this phenomenon is associated with the pulmonar tree architecture, which displays fractal geometry, the analysis and fractal characterization of this noise may provide us with important parameters for comparison between healthy lungs and those affected by disorders that affect the geometry of the tree lung, such as the obstructive and parenchymal degenerative diseases, which occurs, for example, in pulmonary emphysema. In the second part, we study a site percolation model for square lattices, where the percolating cluster grows governed by a control rule, corresponding to a method of automatic search. In this model of percolation, which have characteristics of self-organized criticality, the method does not use the automated search on Leaths algorithm. It uses the following control rule: pt+1 = pt + k(Rc − Rt), where p is the probability of percolation, k is a kinetic parameter where 0 < k < 1 and R is the fraction of percolating finite square lattices with side L, LxL. This rule provides a time series corresponding to the dynamical evolution of the system, in particular the likelihood of percolation p. We proceed an analysis of scaling of the signal obtained in this way. The model used here enables the study of the automatic search method used for site percolation in square lattices, evaluating the dynamics of their parameters when the system goes to the critical point. It shows that the scaling of , the time elapsed until the system reaches the critical point, and tcor, the time required for the system loses its correlations, are both inversely proportional to k, the kinetic parameter of the control rule. We verify yet that the system has two different time scales after: one in which the system shows noise of type 1 f , indicating to be strongly correlated. Another in which it shows white noise, indicating that the correlation is lost. For large intervals of time the dynamics of the system shows ergodicity

Fertilizing Capacity of Frozen Epididymal Sperm Collected from Dogs

The collection of epididymal sperm may be a valuable tool for canine reproduction especially since it can enable collection of cells after death of a valuable dog. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the viability of epididymal sperm after freeze-thawing. Epididymides were obtained from four adult dogs by elective orchiectomy. The caudal portion of the epididymides and part of the deferential ducts were squeezed by means of an anatomic clamp into a Petri dish containing either 0.9% saline solution (Group 1) or Ringer solution without lactate (Group 2). Samples were centrifuged at 800 x g for 10 min, the supernatant was removed and the pellet was diluted in one step with a Tris/citric acid/OEP (Orvus Es Paste) extender containing 7% glycerol and subjected to semen freezing. Oocytes were obtained from canine ovaries, after ovariohysterectomy. Only oocytes that were approximately 100 mu m in diameter, with a dark ooplasm surrounded by three-or four-well formed cumulus cell layers were used for sperm testing. Frozen semen samples were thawed in a water bath at 70 degrees C for 8 s and analysed at room temperature for sperm motility and velocity. Oocytes were incubated with spermatozoa in humidified atmosphere containing 5% CO(2) at 38 degrees C for 18 h. Morphological and functional characteristics of spermatozoa were similar in both groups. However, the percentage of sperm cells bound to oocytes was significantly higher in Group 2 than in Group 1. This result suggests that the Ringer solution without lactate was a more suitable medium for collecting epididymal canine sperm than 0.9% saline.

Visual detection of turkey coronavirus RNA in tissues and feces by reverse-transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) with hydroxynaphthol blue dye

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Short-term in situ/ex vivo study of the anticariogenic potential of a resin-modified glass-ionomer cement associated with adhesive systems

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Avaliação do Índice de Remanescente Adesivo utilizando braquetes com e sem tratamento na base e a interação com três sistemas de colagem

OBJETIVO: avaliar o Índice de Remanescente Adesivo (IRA) em dentes bovinos após a descolagem de braquetes com e sem tratamento na base. METODOLOGIA: foram utilizados três sistemas de colagem ortodôntica para os dois padrões de base. Os dentes bovinos foram divididos em seis grupos de 40, de acordo com a base do braquete e o sistema de colagem. Vinte e quatro horas após a colagem foram realizados os testes de compressão em uma máquina de ensaios. A avaliação do IRA foi realizada em um estereomicroscópio por três examinadores calibrados. Foi utilizado o teste não paramétrico de Kruskal-Wallis, seguido do método de Dunn, para fazer as comparações múltiplas entre todos os grupos. RESULTADOS E CONCLUSÕES: observou-se que o tratamento das bases dos braquetes com óxido de alumínio não foi determinante para o aumento da adesividade entre o braquete e o adesivo. O grupo em que se utilizou braquetes com tratamento na base e adesivo TXT (3M-Unitek) + Transbond Plus SEP (3M-Unitek) apresentou a maior parte das fraturas na interface dente-adesivo (escore 4).

Direct detection of infectious bursal disease virus from clinical samples by in situ reverse transcriptase-linked polymerase chain reaction

The presence of the very virulent (vv) Brazilian strain of infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV) was determined in the bursa of Fabricius, thymus and liver of 2-week-old broilers from a flock with a higher than expected mortality. For this purpose, a direct in situ reverse transcriptase (RT)-linked polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method was developed using specific primers for vvIBDV. Unlabelled forward and reverse biotinylated oligonucleotides were used for RT-PCR in a one-step method and the respective products were revealed by a direct enzymatic reaction. The results were compared with those obtained by standard RT-PCR using general primers for IBDV and virus isolation. The virus isolation, RT-PCR and in situ RT-PCR revealed positive results on the bursa of Fabricius in 86%, 80% and 100%, respectively. The in situ RT-PCR detected vvIBDV in all tested thymus and liver samples, whereas the standard RT-PCR detected virus in 80% and 90% of the samples, respectively. After three consecutive passages on chicken embryonated eggs, IBDV was isolated from 64% of the thymus samples and 30% of the liver samples. In the present study, no classical or antigenic variants of IBDV were detected. The developed in situ RT-PCR assay was able to detect the very virulent strain of IBDV with a higher sensitivity than the conventional RT-PCR and virus isolation.

Transdentinal diffusion and cytotoxicity of self-etching adhesive systems

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)