704 resultados para Milho - Aspectos econômicos


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No Brasil, a Política Nacional de Recursos Hídricos apresenta a cobrança pelo uso da água como um instrumento de gestão de recursos hídricos de caráter econômico. Considerando esse caráter, a cobrança deve ter como objetivos: racionalizar o uso do recurso baseado na sua escassez; reconhecer a água como um bem de valor econômico, refletindo os custos ambientais advindos de sua utilização; e diminuir os conflitos entre os usos, induzindo uma alocação que considere o gerenciamento da demanda e as prioridades da sociedade. Além dessas metas, como instrumento de gestão de uma política que lista como primeiro objetivo \"assegurar à atual e às futuras gerações a necessária disponibilidade de água, em padrões de qualidade adequados aos respectivos usos\", a cobrança deve ser implementada de maneira que o agente usuário direcione seu comportamento no sentido da sustentabilidade ambiental. Mediante esses fundamentos, o que se pretende desenvolver neste trabalho é a aplicação de um modelo de cobrança sobre o uso da água que considera como princípio base a manutenção da qualidade ambiental medida pela adequada gestão da escassez de água e, compondo a busca dessa qualidade, a racionalização econômica e a viabilização financeira. Essa predominância do ambiente sobre aspectos econômicos vem no sentido de desqualificar argumentos segundo os quais, os impactos advindos dos usos da água serão corrigidos indefinidamente mediante investimentos financeiros em infra estrutura. Admitir que o desenvolvimento tem esse poder é supor equivocadamente que o meio econômico é limitante do meio ambiente e não o contrário. Esta constatação mostra qual é o problema da maioria das propostas de cobrança que valoram a água baseadas em custos de tratamento de resíduos e de obras hidráulicas. Por mais elaborados que sejam essas fórmulas de cobrança, chegando a ponto de se conseguir que fique mais caro, mediante um padrão ambiental corretamente definido, captar água ou lançar poluentes do que racionalizar usos, o preço da água não pode estar baseado em fatores cuja \"sustentabilidade\" pode acabar no curto prazo, dependendo do ritmo de crescimento econômico. A sustentabilidade dos recursos hídricos só será base da cobrança pelo uso da água se o valor cobrado for dificultando esse uso à medida que os recursos tornarem se escassos, e não quando os custos de medidas mitigadoras dessa escassez se tornarem muito elevados. Portanto, o modelo de cobrança proposto neste trabalho procura garantir que o agente econômico que está exaurindo o meio ambiente não possa ter capacidade de pagar por essa degradação, ajudando efetivamente a política de outorga do direito de uso da água na observância da capacidade de suporte do meio.

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O uso da biomassa como fonte de energia elétrica corresponde a uma alternativa de grande importância para o planejamento estratégico do crescimento econômico de diversos países. A vasta extensão territorial e o clima favorável ao desenvolvimento da agricultura no Brasil trazem como vantagem o poder de planejar sua matriz energética utilizando variadas fontes primárias renováveis. A cana-de-açúcar destaca-se pela rusticidade e grande produtividade. O bagaço como um subproduto resultante do processamento da cana é utilizado como fonte para a cogeração de energia e pode contribuir significativamente para a descentralização das fontes de energia nacional. Com o desenvolvimento da tecnologia de etanol de segunda geração, a busca pela maior produção de biomassa ganha relevância. Os programas de melhoramento identificaram que se caso com redução de 25 a 35% da sacarose na cana, a planta teria um potencial de aumento de mais de 100% da biomassa. Os híbridos derivados de programas de melhoramento da espécie Saccharum spp., direcionados exclusivamente para a produção de biomassa, foram denominados de cana energia. Tendo em vista o potencial de produtividade da cultura e consequentemente de geração de energia, torna-se necessário conhecer se esse potencial se traduz em resultado econômico. Com esse enfoque, o objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a viabilidade econômica da produção de biomassa da cana energia. Para tanto foi desenvolvido um modelo em planilha eletrônica e o modelo foi empregado na simulação de cenários e alternativas. A planilha integra modelos de balanço hídrico, produtividade da cultura e distribuição de chuvas, e suas relações com aspectos econômicos e produtivos. O preço de venda da biomassa, a produtividade da cultura e a distância de transporte se mostraram como os itens que mais influem sobre os indicadores de viabilidade econômica. Diferentemente da eficiência gerencial, a eficiência de campo corresponde a um fator de grande importância a ser considerado para reduzir o custo de produção. A análise da área de colheita como uma variável crítica indicou que existem módulos ideais para a utilização de máquinas agrícolas, reduzindo o seu custo operacional devido ao uso melhor atribuído das máquinas na propriedade. A análise da textura do solo como variável crítica mostrou que o cultivo da planta em diferentes tipos de solos reflete em diferentes custos operacionais, produtividade potencial e no montante de investimento. O ano de reforma corresponde a um fator crítico para a viabilização da atividade. Para o cenário base, o indicador de atratividade financeira apresenta um Valor Presente Líquido de 6,4 milhões de reais e uma Taxa Interna de Retorno de 15,2%, com um horizonte de 20 anos de produção. As análises de sensibilidade mostram que as variáveis que mais impactam nos indicadores de viabilidade econômica financeira são o preço de venda da biomassa e a produtividade média da lavoura.

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The increasing economic competition drives the industry to implement tools that improve their processes efficiencies. The process automation is one of these tools, and the Real Time Optimization (RTO) is an automation methodology that considers economic aspects to update the process control in accordance with market prices and disturbances. Basically, RTO uses a steady-state phenomenological model to predict the process behavior, and then, optimizes an economic objective function subject to this model. Although largely implemented in industry, there is not a general agreement about the benefits of implementing RTO due to some limitations discussed in the present work: structural plant/model mismatch, identifiability issues and low frequency of set points update. Some alternative RTO approaches have been proposed in literature to handle the problem of structural plant/model mismatch. However, there is not a sensible comparison evaluating the scope and limitations of these RTO approaches under different aspects. For this reason, the classical two-step method is compared to more recently derivative-based methods (Modifier Adaptation, Integrated System Optimization and Parameter estimation, and Sufficient Conditions of Feasibility and Optimality) using a Monte Carlo methodology. The results of this comparison show that the classical RTO method is consistent, providing a model flexible enough to represent the process topology, a parameter estimation method appropriate to handle measurement noise characteristics and a method to improve the sample information quality. At each iteration, the RTO methodology updates some key parameter of the model, where it is possible to observe identifiability issues caused by lack of measurements and measurement noise, resulting in bad prediction ability. Therefore, four different parameter estimation approaches (Rotational Discrimination, Automatic Selection and Parameter estimation, Reparametrization via Differential Geometry and classical nonlinear Least Square) are evaluated with respect to their prediction accuracy, robustness and speed. The results show that the Rotational Discrimination method is the most suitable to be implemented in a RTO framework, since it requires less a priori information, it is simple to be implemented and avoid the overfitting caused by the Least Square method. The third RTO drawback discussed in the present thesis is the low frequency of set points update, this problem increases the period in which the process operates at suboptimum conditions. An alternative to handle this problem is proposed in this thesis, by integrating the classic RTO and Self-Optimizing control (SOC) using a new Model Predictive Control strategy. The new approach demonstrates that it is possible to reduce the problem of low frequency of set points updates, improving the economic performance. Finally, the practical aspects of the RTO implementation are carried out in an industrial case study, a Vapor Recompression Distillation (VRD) process located in Paulínea refinery from Petrobras. The conclusions of this study suggest that the model parameters are successfully estimated by the Rotational Discrimination method; the RTO is able to improve the process profit in about 3%, equivalent to 2 million dollars per year; and the integration of SOC and RTO may be an interesting control alternative for the VRD process.

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A questão que nos propusemos analisar consiste em perceber como é que a cultura pode ser um fator de desenvolvimento e em que moldes se tem processado. Em primeiro lugar, procuraremos definir o conceito de cultura, tendo em conta as diferentes aceções que tem adquirido ao longo do tempo, para estabelecer o que é que hoje quer dizer “cultura”. No fundo, abordar de que maneira a área da cultura se interliga com outros domínios, tais como os direitos humanos, a educação, a economia, o ambiente. Também procurar debater de que modo estas áreas são fundamentais para a compreensão da noção atual de cultura e como interferem na questão do desenvolvimento. Além disso, abordaremos o papel fundamental das indústrias culturais e criativas para a compreensão do que aqui está em causa. Deste modo, daremos resposta a questões como a forma de a cultura poder ser um fator de criação de emprego, qualificação e formação e como pode ser um impulso à economia. Ao considerar que a cultura tem um caráter pragmático, lançaremos um olhar sobre a realidade de São Tomé e Príncipe, de que analisaremos os principais espaços de criatividade, as principais questões que se conjugam com o fator cultural bem como o papel que lhe é atribuído enquanto um elemento a ter em conta nas políticas públicas. Em suma, pretendemos perceber o que ainda é preciso ser feito, procurando aliar um dos pontos que constituem a chave da cultura em STP – a tradição – às exigências das novas abordagens no setor cultural.

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Tese de doutoramento, História (História de Arte), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Letras, 2016

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Este estudo pretende identificar as mudanças relevantes no mercado e qual o valor percebido pelos clientes e taxistas, considerando-se a inserção das empresas prestadoras de serviços de táxis da cidade de São Paulo no mundo virtual, através do uso de aplicativos. Para tanto, explanamos o conceito de cadeia de valor, incluindo cadeia de valor virtual e rede de valor, a fim de um melhor entendimento da estrutura em que se embasam as empresas desse novo ambiente, bem como explicamos os conceitos de modelo de negócio e Business Model Canvas. Com esse embasamento teórico propomos um framework com a finalidade de auxiliar o processo de extração e análise das informações que permitiram identificar as mudanças relevantes que ocorreram nesse mercado e o valor percebido pelos clientes e taxistas, fazendo uso de um estudo de caso. O tema é relevante, por se tratar de uma mudança significativa na forma como as empresas se relacionam com seus clientes e prestadores; e por permitir observar que valor agregado esse modelo tem propiciado, que fez com que cerca de 30 mil taxistas, dos 35 mil da cidade de São Paulo, optassem pelo uso de aplicativos, fazendo com que uma das empresas estudadas nessa dissertação atingisse mais de 2.5 milhões de downloads em todo o Brasil. Espera-se, com este estudo, identificar as mudanças relevantes que a inserção dos aplicativos trouxeram aos usuários e taxistas e apresentar um framework que pode ser utilizado como um facilitador na análise da cadeia de valor e cadeia de valor virtual do mercado de prestação de serviços de taxis, esclarecendo que esse modelo não é apenas um modismo ao qual se pode atribuir uma série de benefícios, mas, sim, uma tendência que está redefinindo o formato das empresas desse mercado.

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Esta pesquisa estuda a existência e atuação de uma organização da sociedade civil em São Bernardo do Campo (SBC). A partir da utilização de ferramentas da participação cidadã, em especial a que constitui o Orçamento Participativo, ela analisa se e como esta organização se relaciona com os munícipes e com as esferas do poder executivo na busca por uma proposta de governo que atenda aos anseios daqueles a que representa, além das próprias aspirações. O estudo busca, através de um relato histórico, contextualizar o município pelos aspectos econômicos, políticos e sociais. A partir de levantamentos bibliográficos e acompanhamento, por meio de entrevistas, realizou-se um estudo de caso em uma entidade social não governamental que tem especial olhar sobre o jovem cidadão são-bernardense, a fim de verificar como esta entidade é planejada e gerida para atender às aspirações sociais destes. Espera-se, ao final, entender como uma organização da sociedade civil, em consonância com o que pretende para si mesma, reflete seus objetivos nas propostas e plenárias de Orçamento Participativo de SBC, realizadas em 2010 para o ano 2011.(AU)

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Artisanal fishing is one of the important economic activities of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), becoming the main form of survival and income for many families. The southern coast of RN has strong fishing tradition, both in exploitation of fish as in the collection of mollusks on the banks of Guaraíra Lagoon (APA Bonfim-Guaraíra). In recent years, fishing communities have become more vulnerable to outside influences, since the socio-economic and environmental changes are exposed. These changes require adjustments to the fishermen to different environmental conditions, as the social and natural systems are driven by reorganization and upgrading processes. The living conditions in fishing communities are objective and necessary in different ways, according to a selection that is cultural, so adaptable. This study has the general objective to analyze the main environmental changes in fishing communities, based on the understanding of fishermen and mollusk fisherwomen about this problem. The specific objectives searched to: describe the socioeconomic profile, prospects and difficulties of fishermen and mollusk fisherwomen; investigate the major social and environmental changes in the fishing communities of Patané and Camocim (Arez/RN). The methodology was qualitative-quantitative with the techniques of observation in the field and open and semistructured interviews applied to representatives of Cologne fishing, fishermen and mollusk fisherwomen. Between the months of January to July 2014 were applied semistructured interviews with 41 interlocutors in Patané and 23 of Camocim; totaling 64 people. The results indicated that the interlocutors are aged 40 to 60 years; have only completed elementary school level; are married and have children; survive on less than a minimum wage income and they are not receiving employment insurance. The case study also revealed that the socioeconomic and environmental problems reflected in changes in reproduction, organization and social division of labor, which generates adaptive changes of families to external influences, resulting directly from other economic activities and market pressure and indirectly from tourism. Therefore, adaptations to changes scenario presented as favorable to economic aspects and unfavorable to the social and environmental aspects. In short, the fishery develops on technical, bureaucratic and financial obstacles, in the everyday needs of men and women is the determining factor in willingness to continue exercising fishing and shell fishing on Guaraíra Lagoon, space representing relations social, practices and customs transmitted in the course of local history through social memory of the oldest to the youngest.

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The setting up of wind power enterprises at Permanent Preservation Areas reflects the obvious conflict and necessary convergence between free market and energy security on the one hand, and the promotion of environmental quality on the other. From the perspective of energy sustainability, and in order to achieve development (in its complex meaning, which converges economic, social, environmental and cultural aspects), the harmonization between free market and an ecologically sustainable environment is required. This work aims to identify the link between the protection system of the Permanent Preservation Areas and the current constitutional order, by analyzing the implementation of wind power enterprises in these protected zones focusing on the proportionality aspects. A legal and purposeful research was developed, from a theoretical method, followed by collecting and analyzing both primary and secondary data. From these data, the law, the legal literature and judicial decisions were cross-examined, under the light of the Constitution and guided by the theory of proportionality and related development imperatives. In this context, the present study identified the link between the principles of the economic order, environment and energy law, finding their basis under the Federal Constitution and development. By reproducing this interrelationship and by means of post-crisis institutional reforms, the guiding objectives of the Brazilian electric sector began to corroborate the precepts of development, although issues regarding its sustainability still persist. The appraisal of proportionality indicates that the Permanent Preservation Areas protection system is insufficient to materialize the right to a healthy quality of life upon the implementation of wind projects at Permanent Preservation Areas, albeit seeking the harmonization between free market and environmental protection.

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The setting up of wind power enterprises at Permanent Preservation Areas reflects the obvious conflict and necessary convergence between free market and energy security on the one hand, and the promotion of environmental quality on the other. From the perspective of energy sustainability, and in order to achieve development (in its complex meaning, which converges economic, social, environmental and cultural aspects), the harmonization between free market and an ecologically sustainable environment is required. This work aims to identify the link between the protection system of the Permanent Preservation Areas and the current constitutional order, by analyzing the implementation of wind power enterprises in these protected zones focusing on the proportionality aspects. A legal and purposeful research was developed, from a theoretical method, followed by collecting and analyzing both primary and secondary data. From these data, the law, the legal literature and judicial decisions were cross-examined, under the light of the Constitution and guided by the theory of proportionality and related development imperatives. In this context, the present study identified the link between the principles of the economic order, environment and energy law, finding their basis under the Federal Constitution and development. By reproducing this interrelationship and by means of post-crisis institutional reforms, the guiding objectives of the Brazilian electric sector began to corroborate the precepts of development, although issues regarding its sustainability still persist. The appraisal of proportionality indicates that the Permanent Preservation Areas protection system is insufficient to materialize the right to a healthy quality of life upon the implementation of wind projects at Permanent Preservation Areas, albeit seeking the harmonization between free market and environmental protection.

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Such work aims to analyze aspects of the lives of adolescents, authors of Infraction, after completion of the Socio-Educational Measures in Half Open (Probation - LA and Services to the Community - PSC) in the city of Natal / RN in 2010. Thus, it become necessary to point out and consider the socio-historical determinations that permeate the lives of these young men, estimating the economic, social, political and historical aspects. We understand that these individuals experience numerous expressions of Social Issues, such as lack of opportunities, violence, unemployment, among others. In the reduction context of the State actions for the social, and investments negligible in public policies. Thus, the research aimed to identify such determinations in the lives of adolescents, young people today, and aimed to know these adolescents and analyze the family situation, socio-economic and political these, after completion of educational measures; and to evaluate the inclusion in school life and in the labor market. Therefore, we used as a methodological way the qualiquantitative research, using the procedure of 4 (four) semi-structured interviews, 9 (nine) analysis processes by configuring so documentary research, through the analysis of reports, processes and monitoring documents. The universe of analysis went adolescents who fulfilled socio-educational measures in liberty in the city of Natal / RN. The sample consisted of nine (9) young, that we follow during the mandatory curricular training, in the period of graduation in Social Work at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, in 2010. The time frame of the research took place between 2010 - 2014. The results of this study indicate that the solution to problems of violence is not the reduction of criminal majority. It is necessary to take actions in ensuring rights and allow other living conditions to the children and adolescents, because, in fact, in the society there is a tendency to regression of rights. We learn that, despite all the difficulties, as: low education, access to the labor market, low income, among others, young people interviewed understand the Socio-Educational Measures such as a watershed in their lives, because, they do not practice more illicit acts, they seek a better life, they have dreams and plans for the future, and they continue writing their histories.

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Such work aims to analyze aspects of the lives of adolescents, authors of Infraction, after completion of the Socio-Educational Measures in Half Open (Probation - LA and Services to the Community - PSC) in the city of Natal / RN in 2010. Thus, it become necessary to point out and consider the socio-historical determinations that permeate the lives of these young men, estimating the economic, social, political and historical aspects. We understand that these individuals experience numerous expressions of Social Issues, such as lack of opportunities, violence, unemployment, among others. In the reduction context of the State actions for the social, and investments negligible in public policies. Thus, the research aimed to identify such determinations in the lives of adolescents, young people today, and aimed to know these adolescents and analyze the family situation, socio-economic and political these, after completion of educational measures; and to evaluate the inclusion in school life and in the labor market. Therefore, we used as a methodological way the qualiquantitative research, using the procedure of 4 (four) semi-structured interviews, 9 (nine) analysis processes by configuring so documentary research, through the analysis of reports, processes and monitoring documents. The universe of analysis went adolescents who fulfilled socio-educational measures in liberty in the city of Natal / RN. The sample consisted of nine (9) young, that we follow during the mandatory curricular training, in the period of graduation in Social Work at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, in 2010. The time frame of the research took place between 2010 - 2014. The results of this study indicate that the solution to problems of violence is not the reduction of criminal majority. It is necessary to take actions in ensuring rights and allow other living conditions to the children and adolescents, because, in fact, in the society there is a tendency to regression of rights. We learn that, despite all the difficulties, as: low education, access to the labor market, low income, among others, young people interviewed understand the Socio-Educational Measures such as a watershed in their lives, because, they do not practice more illicit acts, they seek a better life, they have dreams and plans for the future, and they continue writing their histories.

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The farm’s rural dwellings of creation from the Seridó Potiguar microregion, built in the nineteenth century, became a reference by its vernacular character, i.e. these buildings, besides having recognized relevance to the identity of the region, they are adapted to the conditions of the place in many aspects (economic, cultural, construction, physical, et.) and consist in protective spaces in relation to hostile characteristics of Seridó’s climate. Considering the above premise, the following question arises: What characteristics of the nineteenth century Seridó Potiguar’s cattle farms are crucial for them to be a protective space in relation to the semiarid climate? In order to answer the question, this research aim to identify which particularities of the Seridó’s farmhouses that contribute to adaptability in these buildings to semiarid climate, as protection environments; and contribute to the stock valuation of the architectural heritage concerned. Therefore, procedures were adopted divided into two stages. Were first identified the recurring characteristics in the studied buildings, through typological study performed from existing inventories (DINIZ, 2008; FEIJÓ, 2002; IPHAN, 2012). To define the type it worked up with the concept that merges Durand’s analytical typology that identifies the similarities and differences to classify buildings, having the character of historical survey and architectural documentation, with the definition proposed by Argan (1963) that the type is not defined a priory, but the deduction from a number of illustrative cases which have formal and functional similarity with each other. Then worked up in a sample of five different types with each other, defined by the possibility of access to the interior of the houses, proximity to other copies, good state of conservation and preservation. The contemplated farms were: Pitombeiras, Agenus e Garrotes in Acari’s town, and the municipality of Caicó, Palma and Penedo. The second stage consists of the architectural survey, photographic record, digital three-dimensional modeling (aiming to expand the existing documentation and registration) and thermal monitoring over approximately a representative day in five farmhouses, relating the thermal performance of the houses with their individual characteristics. The selected variables for analysis monitoring are based on the thermal comfort adaptive model (SPAGNOLO and DE DEAR, 2003 apud NEGREIROS, 2010). The characteristics of the houses were analyzed as meeting the passive thermal conditioning strategies recommended by NBR 15220 (ABNT, 2005), for the bioclimatic zone 7 where the municipalities of Caicó and Acari are located. The house’s analysis of the operating temperatures revealed that 90% of the times of day the environments are within the comfort range. The farmhouses, which had a higher degree of compliance with recommended bioclimatic strategies, had the best thermal performance. In environments (usually the kitchen and rooms with low ceiling heights, exposed to west radiation) which still had discomfort hours, the thermal comfort can be reached with air movement approximately 1,0 m/s.

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The farm’s rural dwellings of creation from the Seridó Potiguar microregion, built in the nineteenth century, became a reference by its vernacular character, i.e. these buildings, besides having recognized relevance to the identity of the region, they are adapted to the conditions of the place in many aspects (economic, cultural, construction, physical, et.) and consist in protective spaces in relation to hostile characteristics of Seridó’s climate. Considering the above premise, the following question arises: What characteristics of the nineteenth century Seridó Potiguar’s cattle farms are crucial for them to be a protective space in relation to the semiarid climate? In order to answer the question, this research aim to identify which particularities of the Seridó’s farmhouses that contribute to adaptability in these buildings to semiarid climate, as protection environments; and contribute to the stock valuation of the architectural heritage concerned. Therefore, procedures were adopted divided into two stages. Were first identified the recurring characteristics in the studied buildings, through typological study performed from existing inventories (DINIZ, 2008; FEIJÓ, 2002; IPHAN, 2012). To define the type it worked up with the concept that merges Durand’s analytical typology that identifies the similarities and differences to classify buildings, having the character of historical survey and architectural documentation, with the definition proposed by Argan (1963) that the type is not defined a priory, but the deduction from a number of illustrative cases which have formal and functional similarity with each other. Then worked up in a sample of five different types with each other, defined by the possibility of access to the interior of the houses, proximity to other copies, good state of conservation and preservation. The contemplated farms were: Pitombeiras, Agenus e Garrotes in Acari’s town, and the municipality of Caicó, Palma and Penedo. The second stage consists of the architectural survey, photographic record, digital three-dimensional modeling (aiming to expand the existing documentation and registration) and thermal monitoring over approximately a representative day in five farmhouses, relating the thermal performance of the houses with their individual characteristics. The selected variables for analysis monitoring are based on the thermal comfort adaptive model (SPAGNOLO and DE DEAR, 2003 apud NEGREIROS, 2010). The characteristics of the houses were analyzed as meeting the passive thermal conditioning strategies recommended by NBR 15220 (ABNT, 2005), for the bioclimatic zone 7 where the municipalities of Caicó and Acari are located. The house’s analysis of the operating temperatures revealed that 90% of the times of day the environments are within the comfort range. The farmhouses, which had a higher degree of compliance with recommended bioclimatic strategies, had the best thermal performance. In environments (usually the kitchen and rooms with low ceiling heights, exposed to west radiation) which still had discomfort hours, the thermal comfort can be reached with air movement approximately 1,0 m/s.

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En este artículo se recoge la historia de la enseñanza oficial de cine en España: los dos centros en los que se llevó a cabo, sus sedes, sus directores y las prácticas de fin de carrera. Todo ello visto desde la división en tres etapas del tiempo de existencia de la enseñanza anterior a su incorporación a la universidad: la etapa fundacional, la edad de oro y la crisis que lleva al cierre. A lo largo de estas tres etapas hubo un cambio de actitud en el alumnado, desde el entusiasmo y la ilusión inicial al desencanto y rechazo absoluto hacia la Escuela en los últimos años.