Global response sensitivity analysis of uncertain structures

The problem of characterizing global sensitivity indices of structural response when system uncertainties are represented using probabilistic and (or) non-probabilistic modeling frameworks (which include intervals, convex functions, and fuzzy variables) is considered. These indices are characterized in terms of distance measures between a fiducial model in which uncertainties in all the pertinent variables are taken into account and a family of hypothetical models in which uncertainty in one or more selected variables are suppressed. The distance measures considered include various probability distance measures (Hellinger,l(2), and the Kantorovich metrics, and the Kullback-Leibler divergence) and Hausdorff distance measure as applied to intervals and fuzzy variables. Illustrations include studies on an uncertainly parametered building frame carrying uncertain loads. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Enzymatic degradation of polycaprolactone-gelatin blend

Blends of polycaprolactone (PCL), a synthetic polymer and gelatin, natural polymer offer a optimal combination of strength, water wettability and cytocompatibility for use as a resorbable biomaterial. The enzymatic degradation of PCL, gelatin and PCL-gelatin blended films was studied in the presence of lipase (Novozym 435, immobilized) and lysozyme. Novozym 435 degraded the PCL films whereas lysozyme degraded the gelatin. Though Novozym 435 and lysozyme individually could degrade PCL-gelatin blended films, the combination of these enzymes showed the highest degradation of these blended films. Moreover, the enzymatic degradation was much faster when fresh enzymes were added at regular intervals. The changes in physico-chemical properties of polymer films due to degradation were studied by scanning electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and differential scanning calorimetry. These results have important implications for designing resorbable biomedical implants.

Enzymatic degradation of polycaprolactone-gelatin blend

Blends of polycaprolactone (PCL), a synthetic polymer and gelatin, natural polymer offer a optimal combination of strength, water wettability and cytocompatibility for use as a resorbable biomaterial. The enzymatic degradation of PCL, gelatin and PCL-gelatin blended films was studied in the presence of lipase (Novozym 435, immobilized) and lysozyme. Novozym 435 degraded the PCL films whereas lysozyme degraded the gelatin. Though Novozym 435 and lysozyme individually could degrade PCL-gelatin blended films, the combination of these enzymes showed the highest degradation of these blended films. Moreover, the enzymatic degradation was much faster when fresh enzymes were added at regular intervals. The changes in physico-chemical properties of polymer films due to degradation were studied by scanning electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and differential scanning calorimetry. These results have important implications for designing resorbable biomedical implants.

Stalagmite growth perturbations from the Kumaun Himalaya as potential earthquake recorders

The central part of the Himalaya (Kumaun and Garhwal Provinces of India) is noted for its prolonged seismic quiescence, and therefore, developing a longer-term time series of past earthquakes to understand their recurrence pattern in this segment assumes importance. In addition to direct observations of offsets in stratigraphic exposures or other proxies like paleoliquefaction, deformation preserved within stalagmites (speleothems) in karst system can be analyzed to obtain continuous millennial scale time series of earthquakes. The Central Indian Himalaya hosts natural caves between major active thrusts forming potential storehouses for paleoseismological records. Here, we present results from the limestone caves in the Kumaun Himalaya and discuss the implications of growth perturbations identified in the stalagmites as possible earthquake recorders. This article focuses on three stalagmites from the Dharamjali Cave located in the eastern Kumaun Himalaya, although two other caves, one of them located in the foothills, were also examined for their suitability. The growth anomalies in stalagmites include abrupt tilting or rotation of growth axes, growth termination, and breakage followed by regrowth. The U-Th age data from three specimens allow us to constrain the intervals of growth anomalies, and these were dated at 4273 +/- 410 years BP (2673-1853 BC), 2782 +/- 79 years BP (851-693 BC), 2498 +/- 117 years BP (605-371 BC), 1503 +/- 245 years BP (262-752 AD), 1346 +/- 101 years BP (563-765 AD), and 687 +/- 147 years BP (1176-1470 AD). The dates may correspond to the timings of major/great earthquakes in the region and the youngest event (1176-1470 AD) shows chronological correspondence with either one of the great medieval earthquakes (1050-1250 and 1259-1433 AD) evident from trench excavations across the Himalayan Frontal Thrust.

Thermal Properties Measurement of Micro-Electromechanical System Sensors by Digital Moire Method

The thermal properties of a micro-electromechanical system sensor were analysed by a novel digital moire method. A double-layer micro-cantilever sensor (60 mu m long, 10 mu m width and 2 mu dm thick) was prepared by focused ion beam milling. A grating with frequency of 5000 lines mm- I was etched on the cantilever. The sensor was placed into a scanning electron microscope system with a high temperature device. The observation and recording of the thermal deformation of the grating were realised in real-time as the temperature rose from room temperature to 300 degrees C at intervals of 50 degrees C. Digital moire was generated by interference of the deformed grating and a digital virtual grating. The thermal properties including strain distribution of the sensor and the linear expansion coefficient of polysilicon were accurately measured by the phase-shifted moire patterns.

Evaluation of live-attenuated Salmonella vaccines expressing Campylobacter antigens for control of C. jejuni in poultry

Campylobacter jejuni is a zoonotic bacterial pathogen of worldwide importance. It is estimated that 460,000 human infections occur in the United Kingdom per annum and these involve acute enteritis and may be complicated by severe systemic sequelae. Such infections are frequently associated with the consumption of contaminated poultry meat and strategies to control C. jejuni in poultry are expected to limit pathogen entry into the food chain and the incidence of human disease. Toward this aim, a total of 840 Light Sussex chickens were used to evaluate a Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium ΔaroA vaccine expressing the C. jejuni amino acid binding protein CjaA as a plasmid-borne fusion to the C-terminus of fragment C of tetanus toxin. Chickens were given the vaccine at 1-day-old and two weeks later by oral gavage, then challenged after a further two weeks with C. jejuni. Across six biological replicates, statistically significant reductions in caecal C. jejuni of c. 1.4 log10 colony-forming units/g were observed at three and four weeks post-challenge relative to age-matched unvaccinated birds. Protection was associated with the induction of CjaA-specific serum IgY and biliary IgA. Protection was not observed using a vaccine strain containing the empty plasmid. Vaccination with recombinant CjaA subcutaneously at the same intervals significantly reduced the caecal load of C. jejuni at three and four weeks post-challenge. Taken together these data imply that responses directed against CjaA, rather than competitive or cross-protective effects mediated by the carrier, confer protection. The impact of varying parameters on the efficacy of the S. Typhimurium ΔaroA vaccine expressing TetC-CjaA was also tested. Delaying the age at primary vaccination had little impact on protection or humoral responses to CjaA. The use of the parent strain as carrier or changing the attenuating mutation of the carrier to ΔspaS or ΔssaU enhanced the protective effect, consistent with increased invasion and persistence of the vaccine strains relative to the ΔaroA mutant. Expression in the ΔaroA strain of a TetC fusion to Peb1A, but not TetC fusions to GlnH or ChuA, elicited protection against intestinal colonisation by C. jejuni that was comparable to that observed with the TetC-CjaA fusion. Our data are rendered highly relevant by use of the target host in large numbers and support the potential of CjaA- and Peb1A-based vaccines for control of C. jejuni in poultry. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of spatial repeatability using a tire force measuring mat

A portable mat for measuring the dynamic tire forces of commercial vehicles is described. The mat is 56 m long and 13 mm thick and has 141 capacitative strip sensors spaced at 0.4-m intervals. The accuracy of the mat for measuring dynamic tire forces generated by heavy commercial vehicles is assessed using an instrumented vehicle. The spatial repeatability of dynamic wheel loads generated by 14 uninstrumented articulated vehicles is investigated, and it is concluded that approximately half of the vehicles tested are likely to contribute to a repeatable pattern of road loading.

Finding space to mental health : promoting mental health in adolescents (12 to 14 year olds): preliminary results of the intervention's effectiveness

Resumen: La salud mental y el bienestar son fundamentales para nuestra capacidad colectiva y individual como seres humanos de pensar, de exteriorizar los sentimientos, de establecer y mantener relaciones, para estudiar, para perseguir las actividades de ocio, para tomar decisiones diarias y para disfrutar de una vida plena. Una adolescencia saludable es un prerrequisito para una vida adulta saludable. Sin embargo, la realidad actual presenta un panorama preocupante. La formación del capital mental individual y colectivo - especialmente en las primeras etapas de la vida - está siendo retenida por una serie de riesgos evitables para la salud mental (World Health Organization [WHO], 2013). Los adolescentes del sur de Europa (región que ha sido más severamente afectada por la crisis financiera; e.g., Portugal) son señalados como un grupo extremadamente vulnerable, ya que su salud mental fácilmente podría ser influenciada por las dificultades económicas de sus padres y la escasez de solidaridad social (European Parliament, 2012). La promoción de la salud mental de los adolescentes es considerada como una preocupación fundamental (WHO, 2005a, 2013). En este ámbito, las intervenciones centradas en la promoción de la literacía de la salud mental han revelado importantes ventajas en la prevención, reconocimiento, intervención precoz y la reducción del estigma (Pinfold, Stuart, Thornicroft & Arboleda-Florez, 2005; Pinfold, Toulmin, Thornicroft, Huxley, Farmer & Graham, 2003; Schulze, Richter-Werling, Matschinger & Angermeyer, 2003; Stuart, 2006). En consonancia con los marcos de promoción de la salud mentales propuestos por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (2005a), tenemos que involucrar a jóvenes en los ambientes donde interactúan (Burns, 2011). Las escuelas son implícitamente uno de los locales más importantes para la promoción de la salud mental de los adolescentes (Barry, Clarke, Jenkins & Patel, 2013; WHO, 2001). El proyecto “Abrir Espacio para la Salud Mental – Promoción de la salud mental en adolescentes (12-14 años)” tiene como objetivo incrementar literacía de la salud mental en los jóvenes. En el primer año se ha desarrollado un instrumento de evaluación - Mental Health Literacy questionnaire (MHLq) - y la intervención para la promoción de la salud mental. La intervención consiste en 2 sesiones, 90 minutos cada una, implementadas con intervalo de una semana. Siguen una metodología interactiva, utilizando dinámicas de grupo, videos, música y discusión. El estudio de la eficacia de la intervención se lleva a cabo mediante un análisis pre y pos-test con el MHLq, utilizando un grupo experimental y un grupo de control. Este artículo presenta los resultados preliminares de la eficacia de la intervención de promoción de la salud mental en una muestra de 100 adolescentes portugueses (12-14 años). El pos-test mostró un incremento de los niveles de conocimientos de salud mental y estrategias de autoayuda. Los resultados sugieren que la intervención desarrollada parece ser adecuada al objetivo propuesto y refuerzan la creencia de que intervenciones escolares, sistemáticas y sostenibles, para la promoción de la salud mental con jóvenes, es un enfoque prometedor para la promoción de la literacía de la salud mental (Schulze et al., 2003; Rickwood et al., 2005; Corrigan et al., 2007; WHO, 2010).

Attractor crisis and bursting in a fluid flow with two no-slip directions

Characteristic burtsing behavior is observed in a driven, two-dimensional viscous flow, confined to a square domain and subject to no-slip boundaries. Passing a critical parameter value, an existing chaotic attractor undergoes a crisis, after which the flow initially enters a transient bursting regime. Bursting is caused by ejections from and return to a limited subdomain of the phase space, whereas the precrisis chaotic set forms the asymptotic attractor of the flow. For increasing values of the control parameter the length of the bursting regime increases progressively. Passing another critical parameter value, a second crisis leads to the appearance of a secondary type of bursting, of very large dynamical range. Within the bursting regime the flow then switches in irregular intervals from the primary to the secondary type of bursting. Peak enstrophy levels for both types of bursting are associated to the collapse of a primary vortex into a quadrupolar state.

Employment comovements at the sectoral level over the business cycle

This paper extends the technique suggested by den Haan (2000) to investigate contemporaneous as well as lead and lag correlations among economic data for a range of forecast horizons. The technique provides a richer picture of the economic dynamics generating the data and allows one to investigate which variables lead or lag others and whether the lead or lag pattern is short term or long term in nature. The technique is applied to monthly sectoral level employment data for the U.S. and shows that among the ten industrial sectors followed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, six tend to lead the other four. These six have high correlations indicating that the structural shocks generating the data movements are mostly in common. Among the four lagging industries, some lag by longer intervals than others and some have low correlations with the leading industries indicating that these industries are partially influenced by structural shocks beyond those generating the six leading industries.

Paciano II: the report of a conversation on whaling and science, 1-3 March 2008 (Paciano, Umbria)

In 2006 the UK-based charity, Global Ocean, with local support from the Third Millennium Foundation, convened a Conversation among specialists about the problems facing the conservation of whales. Called "A consultation on whaling", this gathering was held in the ancient village of Paciano, in Umbria near the border with Tuscany, 15 – 17 October 2006. There were 15 participants from 11 countries. Dr Kees Lankester served as moderator. The outcome was an Aide Memoire which served to guide the participants in the run-up to the 2007 meeting of the International Whaling Commission (IWC), held in Anchorage, Alaska, in June. One point of agreement was that a second consultation should be held in the months following the Anchorage meeting, involving some but not necessarily all of the participants in the first, but concentrating this time on scientific issues – especially those encountered in the Scientific Committee of the IWC –with particular attention to informing a wider public about those scientific activities in relation to the problems confronting the IWC and the views of scientists about them. This document is the report of that Conversation, referred to as Paciano II. The moderator was Dr Giuseppe Notarbartolo di Sciara and the Report was written by Kieran Mulvaney in consultation with all participants, and with reference to an Aide Memoire prepared by the Rapporteur, Dr Russell Leaper. The sponsor and organisers have agreed with the general sentiment expressed by participants in Paciano II that further such conversations should be held at roughly yearly intervals and they will try to satisfy that desire. Although these future gatherings would be concerned with the living ocean they would not necessarily be restricted in future to consideration of whales and whaling. Discussions are on-going for selection of a theme which is of both scientific interest and practical concern for conservation of marine life and management of the uses of ocean space. (Document has 18 pages)

Paciano II: a report of a conversation on whaling and science, 1-3 March 2008

In 2006 the UK-based charity, Global Ocean, with local support from the Third Millennium Foundation, convened a Conversation among specialists about the problems facing the conservation of whales. Called "A consultation on whaling", this gathering was held in the ancient village of Paciano, in Umbria near the border with Tuscany, 15 – 17 October 2006. There were 15 participants from 11 countries. Dr Kees Lankester served as moderator. The outcome was an Aide Memoire which served to guide the participants in the run-up to the 2007 meeting of the International Whaling Commission (IWC), held in Anchorage, Alaska, in June. One point of agreement was that a second consultation should be held in the months following the Anchorage meeting, involving some but not necessarily all of the participants in the first, but concentrating this time on scientific issues – especially those encountered in the Scientific Committee of the IWC –with particular attention to informing a wider public about those scientific activities in relation to the problems confronting the IWC and the views of scientists about them. This document is the report of that Conversation, referred to as Paciano II. The moderator was Dr Giuseppe Notarbartolo di Sciara and the Report was written by Kieran Mulvaney in consultation with all participants, and with reference to an Aide Memoire prepared by the Rapporteur, Dr Russell Leaper. The sponsor and organisers have agreed with the general sentiment expressed by participants in Paciano II that further such conversations should be held at roughly yearly intervals and they will try to satisfy that desire. Although these future gatherings would be concerned with the living ocean they would not necessarily be restricted in future to consideration of whales and whaling. Discussions are on-going for selection of a theme which is of both scientific interest and practical concern for conservation of marine life and management of the uses of ocean space. (19 page document)

The hydrography of Elkhorn Slough: a shallow California coastal Eebayment: Annual Report, Part 2, 1973

From October 1970 through February 1972, temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, secchi depth and five major nutrients were observed at approximately monthly intervals in Elkhorn Slough and Moss Landing Harbor. In addition, similar hourly observations were made during two tidal studies during the wet and dry seasons. From the salinity measurements during the summer, a salt balance for Elkhorn Slough is formulated and rnean eddy diffusion coefficients are determined. The diffusion nlodel applied to longitudinal phosphate distributions yielded a mean diffusive flux of 12 kg P04/day (140 pg-at/m^2/day) for the area above the mean tidal prism. Consistent differences, apparently due to differing regenerati on ra tes, were observed in the phosphate and nitrogen distributions. Bottom sediments are proposed as a possible source for phosphate and as a sink for fixed nitrogen. Dairy farms located along central Elkhorn Slough are apparently a source for reduced nitrogen. During summer, nitrogen was found to be the limiting nutrient for primary production in the upper slough. Tidal observations indicated fresh water of high nutrient concentration consistently entered the harbor from fresh water sources to the south. This source water had a probable phosphate concentration of 40 to 60 ug-at/l and seasonally varying P:N ratio of 1:16 and 1:5 during the winter and summer respectively. Net production and respiration rates are calculated from diurnal variations in dissolved oxygen levels observed in upper Elkhorn Slough. Changes in phosphate associated with the variations in oxygen was close to the accepted ratio of 1:276 by atoms. Document is 88 pages.

Lithology and palynology of cave floor sediment cores from Wakulla Spring, Wakulla County, Florida

Five short bottom sediment cores taken in Wakulla Spring Wakulla County, Florida, were described lithologically and sampled for palynological study. Four of the cores were recoveredfrom sediments at the spring cave entrance (130 feet water depth). One core was taken in a fossil vertebrate bone bed, 280 feet distance into the main spring cave at a water depth of 240 feet. Sediments in the cores are composed of alternating intervals of quartz sand and calcilitite, containing freshwater diatoms, freshwater mollusk shells and plant remains. The predominant pollen present in all cores consists of a periporate variety typical of the herb families Chenopodiaceae and Amaranthaceae. Arboreal flora, typical of the area surrounding the spring today, represent a very low percentage of thle pollen assemblage in the cores. Clustered Chenopod-Amaranth type pollen observed in one core suggest minimal transport prior to deposition, and indicate that the bottom sediments in the cave may be essentially In situ. An absence of exotic flora suggests a Quaternary age for the sediments. (PDF contains 11 pages.)