Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

É preciso ter coragem: um estudo das narrativas de mulheres na política

É na busca por compreender a inserção e participação de mulheres na política partidária na contemporaneidade que esta dissertação, situada na linha de pesquisa Culturas, Linguagens e Utopias, tem como objetivo analisar as narrativas de vereadoras de municípios que estão localizados na região sul do Rio Grande do Sul no período de 2009-2012. O corpus de análise constitui-se de entrevistas individuais semiestruturadas com as onze vereadoras participantes a partir da metodologia de investigação narrativa. Partindo das contribuições dos Estudos Culturais e de Gênero em suas vertentes pós-estruturalistas procurou-se problematizar alguns discursos e práticas que emergiram nas narrativas com base nas contribuições da análise do discurso de Michel Foucault. Assim, verificou-se que a representação cultural das mulheres neste campo político está fundamentada em concepções essencialistas do gênero feminino como a sensibilidade. Isso vem provocando discussões na ciência política e nos estudos de gênero a partir de termos como política de ideias, política de desvelo que discutem a presença das mulheres em decorrência ou não desses atributos. O fato é que esses discursos vêm instituindo diferenças na participação de homens e mulheres na política e constituindo formas de ser mulher na política partidária e de fazer política diferenciada das dos homens de forma menos “dura”, “rígida”. Ao debruçar-se na inserção das mulheres nessa esfera pública constatou-se uma trajetória marcada pelas noções de público e privado que impediu ao longo de nossa história a participação das mulheres no campo político e o desenvolvimento de sua cidadania. Além disso, nas narrativas das vereadoras fica evidente que as mulheres não foram constituídas para participarem do que hoje é um direito seu: a esfera pública de decisão da política. Isso foi constatado a partir do convite que foi feito para a candidatura pelos partidos que a partir das cotas partidárias procuraram mais significativamente por mulheres para concorrer. Também se observou neste estudo o capital político de ingresso das mulheres nessa esfera: o capital familiar, capital dos movimentos sociais e capital de ocupação em cargos públicos. Quanto a participação das mulheres no cotidiano de seus mandatos identificamos a dificuldade de ser mulher e política na atualidade. As negociações com os partidos e os colegas, a conciliação entre a família e a vida pública; os focos de atuação dedicados as áreas sociais e nesse destacamos mais significativamente a educação. Por fim, o que pretendemos foi desconfiar da máxima “lugar de mulher não é na política” e conhecer as trajetórias e histórias de mulheres que cotidianamente entre conflitos e disputas lutam pelo seu lugar na esfera pública, pelo exercício de sua cidadania.

Complexos de estudo: investigando um experimento de currículo em uma escola de assentamento do MST no Paraná

The Landless Rural Workers Movement (MST) from its educational process and the path taken in education, started in the year 2013, with an experimental curricular proposal by Complexes of study the School Base and the Itinerant Schools, the MST, in Paraná state. For the construction of this proposed curriculum, the movement takes the historical background and the experience of the original foundations of the single school of labor started by the working class in revolutionary Soviet period as a training proposal and school organization that comes close to the creation of collective subjects, fighters and builders of a new society and sociopolitical objectives to this social movement. The Soviet experiment reference required a work of a critical appropriation for the Brazilian context. The curriculum prescription, called Study Plan, in its introduction, includes elements of design fundamentals like: the Education Eesign and Training Matrix; Matrix detailing: School and Life, School and Labor Formative Matrix, School and Social Struggle Formative Matrix, School and Collective Organization Formative Matrix, School and Culture Formative Matrix and School and History Formative Matrix; general school guidelines: a pedagogical function of the environment, the school's political organization, school times, specific methodological aspects, sequencing and duration of Complexes of Study and the evaluation process. The Study Plan contemplates the complexes, the disciplines, the portions of reality / practice categories present in complexes, organized by semester and year, i. e., from 6th to 9th grade in elementary school. Given the the presented context, this research aims to analyze the process of testing the proposed curriculum for the Complexes of Study in Primary School of Iraci Salette Strozak State School, located in the Marcos Freire Settlement, in Rio Bonito do Iguaçu in Paraná state. As a methodological approach, we chose the qualitative approach and analysis were conducted under the Marxism perspective. Library research and field research, semi-structured interviews and analysis of documents generated in the process of construction of the proposal were made.Initially, in this paper, we discus about the path followed by the MST in the fight for schools and public education; highlighting elements of the process which led to the understanding, by the Movement, of which only the struggle for land is not enough for the realization of Agrarian Reform. Then discuss whether some elements of Pedagogy of the Movement, the concept of education and the goals for education that Social Movement, the training matrices and the potential to transform the school from a pedagogical proposal that has these elements as guiding. They present also the original foundations of Complexes Study in its historical origin and design. Is discussed about the changes and curriculum innovations, curriculum as schooling as social reproduction and presents the structure of Curriculum Proposal by Complex of Study. Forth, it is shown how the experiment occurred in basis School Iraci Salette Strozak. At this point, we propose a dialogue on the transformations in the organization of pedagogical work, discussing the elements of the proposal that are being experienced and the changes already perceived. Still, we address the issue of formation of educators and also elements relating to the challenges andadvancements encountered by the school in this area, and possible implications for the experiment.

Proces prekaryzacji pracy - nowe kierunki zmian społeczno-gospodarczych w świecie

Wydział Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa

Gender and East Asian Welfare States: from Confucianism to Gender Equality

How can we understand the gender logic underpinning the welfare states/systems of East Asia? Does the comparative literature, which has largely been concerned with western Welfare states, whether in The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism (Esping-Andersen 1990), or in gender-based analysis of the male breadwinner model (Lewis 1992, 2001, 2006), have anything to offer in understanding the gender assumptions underpinning East Asian welfare states? Are the welfare systems of East Asian countries distinctive, with Confucian assumptions hidden beneath the surface commitment to gender equality? We will use the (mainly western) comparative literature, but argue that Confucian influences remain important, with strong assumptions of family, market and voluntary sector responsibility rather than state responsibility, strong expectations of women’s obligations, without compensating rights, a hierarchy of gender and age, and a highly distinctive, vertical family structure, in which women are subject to parents-in-law. In rapidly changing economies, these social characteristics are changing too. But they still put powerful pressures on women to conform to expectations about care, while weakening their rights to security and support. Nowhere do welfare states’ promises bring gender equality in practice. Even in Scandinavian countries women earn less, care more, and have less power than men. We shall compare East Asian countries (Japan, Korea, Taiwan where possible) with some Western ones, to argue that some major comparative data (e.g. OECD) show the extreme situation of women in these countries. Some fine new qualitative studies give us a close insight into the experience of mothers, including lone and married mothers, which help us to understand how far the gender assumptions of welfare states are from Scandinavia’s dual earner model. There are signs of change in society as well as in economy, and room for optimism that women’s involvement in social movements and academic enquiry may be challenging Confucian gender hierarchies.

Hombres y masculinidad ¿un cambio de modelo?

En las últimas décadas hemos asistido a un importante impulso en las investigaciones centradas en el análisis de las masculinidades. Este hecho no es casual y se debe fundamentalmente a dos razones. Una de carácter político, relacionada con el cuestionamiento de una sociedad representada exclusivamente en términos masculinos. Una segunda razón de carácter científico, ¿si la feminidad debía ser explicada por qué no la masculinidad? Ambas razones han incidido en la desnaturalización de una supuesta masculinidad de carácter universal y en la profusión de investigaciones tendentes a desvelar: las formas sociales de construir a los hombres, los mecanismos de reproducción del poder inscritos en los cuerpos, los desiguales modelos sociales en torno a lo masculino, las relaciones de dominación que se producen entre hombres y mujeres, y entre los propios hombres. Este cuestionamiento teórico de “lo masculino” ha estado muy vinculado al papel de los movimientos sociales y especialmente del feminismo y los movimientos de liberación sexual, que han jugado un papel central en la redefinición del papel de hombres y mujeres, y por tanto en la búsqueda de nuevas alternativas a los modelos tradicionales, también entre los propios hombres. En las páginas siguientes nos aproximaremos precisamente a la noción de masculinidad y masculinidades, incidiendo en su carácter relacional y cambiante, así como en sus distintas significaciones.

The murky waters of neoliberal marketization and commodification on the education of adults in the United States

We approach marketization and commodification of adult education from multiple lenses including our personal narratives and neoliberalism juxtaposed against the educational philosophy of the Progressive Period. We argue that adult education occurs in many arenas including the public spaces found in social movements, community-based organizations, and government sponsored programs designed to engage and give voice to all citizens toward building a stronger civil society. We conclude that only when adult education is viewed from the university lens, where it focuses on the individual and not the public good, does it succumb to neoliberal forces. (DIPF/Orig.)

Direito como efetividade e luta pela terra no Brasil

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Direito, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Direito, 2016.

The incorporation of violence by women video artists

This paper examines the way in which women video artists embodied violence in their video pieces as a strategy of critique of the patriarchal regime. Since the 1960s several generations of women artists used different strategies of self-harm or explored the physical and mental limits of their bodies to express the anguish of those who are excluded from the patriarchal society on sexist and/or racist grounds. Considering the guiding line that covers three fields – art, gender, and feminist social movements – as well as their key thinkers and scholars in Sociology, Fine Arts and the Humanities, we have built the object of study of this essay, namely, the relationship between women's video art focused on the body, violence and gender along with feminist social movements in the period ranging from 1967 to 2007, in a Western context. The methodology used had as its primary goal to create a link between the micro-sociological level of expressions, body gestures and behaviours in the videos and the macro-sociological level of broader, institutionalized social forces that are at the origin of inequalities, such as dimensions of gender and «race». This study concluded that at least since the 1960s there is the denunciation by women video artists of the general circumstances women live under, while enduring violence of various kinds, such as socio-cultural, psychological and sexual violence against women.

Tensões e contradições do processo de construção das diretrizes para a politica pública de educação infantil do campo

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Educação, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Educação, 2016.

Manifestações de junho de 2013 : análise da atuação dos movimentos sociais e antissistêmicos

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciência Política, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência Política, 2016.

Los movimientos sociales en las agendas mediática y política en España: el caso de la PAH

El presente trabajo analiza la presencia de la Plataforma de Afectados por la Hipoteca, de sus acciones y reivindicaciones en la agenda mediática y en la agenda política en España en el año 2014. Tras describir el papel de la plataforma como movimiento social en nuestro país, trata, en primer lugar, de analizar la cobertura que los tres principales medios impresos (El País, El Mundo y ABC) han hecho del mismo a lo largo del año, desde la perspectiva del Framing o Teoría del Enfoque, observando el tratamiento valorativo que realizan los tres diarios de la plataforma. Por otro lado, se lleva a cabo un análisis de la agenda política, en cuanto a las menciones a la PAH y a sus acciones en el debate parlamentario en el Congreso de los Diputados, diferenciando la pertenencia a la agenda simbólica y sustancial. Los datos muestran, por un lado, un tratamiento diverso del movimiento social por parte de los tres medios, que se correspondería con el diferente posicionamiento ideológico de cada periódico. Por otro, las formaciones políticas presentes en el hemiciclo incluyen de manera cuantitativamente distinta a la PAH en sus discursos –siendo Izquierda Plural el grupo que más menciones ha realizado– y la mayoría de éstos pertenece a la agenda simbólica. La distribución temporal de las dos agendas no muestra una influencia clara entre ambas.

Propuesta para un viraje en el estudio de los medios en Las Márgenes

Este artículo explora diferentes tipos de apropiación de tecnologías mediáticas en las márgenes y propone un cambio en el acercamiento investigativo en diferentes niveles: 1) en lugar de centrarse en tecnologías individuales, la investigación sobre medios en las márgenes debe examinar cómo los/as comunicadores locales se desenvuelven en ecologías mediáticas que ofrecen recursos y retos específicos en cada situación histórica; 2) en lugar de tratar de determinar si las tecnologías mediáticas usadas en las márgenes son nuevas u obsoletas, digitales o no, es urgente comprender cómo los/as comunicadores asentados en lo local detectan necesidades de información y comunicación específicas y usan las tecnologías disponibles para abordar tales necesidades; 3) la investigación sobre medios en las márgenes debe esclarecer cómo las/los protagonistas de este tipo de comunicación ciudadana y comunitaria reinventan, hibridan, reciclan y tienden lazos entre plataformas tecnológicas. En resumen, para entender las tecnologías mediáticas en las márgenes la investigación debe asumir altos niveles de complejidad, debe mantener la noción de ecologías mediáticas y entender cómo, a nivel local, comunicadores comunitarios profundamente inmersos en lo cotidiano e histórico, ajustan las tecnologías mediáticas a las necesidades de sus comunidades.

Les liens entre les émotions, les médias et la mobilisation sociale : une étude de cas sur la révolution égyptienne en 2011

Ce mémoire porte sur les liens entre les médias, les émotions et la séquence d’événements lors d’une mobilisation sociale. Nous avons fait une étude de cas sur la révolution égyptienne de 2011. L’objectif est de comprendre comment les gens se mobilisent lors d’un événement de cet ordre. Au niveau théorique, nous explorons les travaux de Castells (2012) sur les mouvements de foule. Nous présentons la théorie d’intelligence affective pour résumer ce que les chercheurs ont dit sur la place des émotions en temps de mobilisation. En ce qui concerne la méthodologie, nous avons effectué des entrevues semi-structurées avec des Égyptiens qui ont participé à la révolution de 2011 ou l’ont suivie. Nous utilisons des cartes cognitives pour comprendre leur expérience. Une carte cognitive est une analyse qui vise à révéler les représentations, soit les liens que voient les personnes entre différentes composantes. Les résultats de cette recherche semblent illustrés le fait qu’au début de la révolution, les gens ont surtout utilisé Facebook pour en apprendre sur les manifestations. Plus tard, autres formes de communication ont pris de l’importance pour s’informer sur ce qui se passait dans le pays et pour mobiliser les gens. Par ailleurs, de la colère s’est fait sentir à la fois pendant et avant la révolution. La discussion a permis d’analyser la mobilisation sociale avec l’arrivée du web 2.0 et de s’interroger sur ce phénomène ainsi que sur l’importance de la communication interpersonnelle et des émotions durant une révolution.

Génération souverainiste? L'engagement des jeunes au sein du mouvement souverainiste québécois : le cas du Parti québécois

Depuis la défaite du Oui au référendum de 1995, nous observons une perte de vitesse du mouvement souverainiste québécois. Cette dernière est d’abord perceptible d’un point de vue électoral où nous observons une baisse constante des appuis aux partis souverainistes, et ensuite relativement au fractionnement social et idéologique du mouvement souverainiste. Dans un tel contexte, nous nous attardons, dans le cadre de ce mémoire, à l’engagement des jeunes âgé-e-s de 20 à 26 ans au sein du Parti québécois (PQ). Ces personnes ont commencé à s’impliquer dans ce parti alors que le mouvement souverainiste était déjà caractérisé par une perte de vitesse et n’ont jamais connu les moments effervescents de celui-ci. Suite à seize entrevues semi-directives réalisées avec des militant-e-s du PQ, ce mémoire a pour but de comprendre les processus d’engagement de ces personnes. À l’aide d’une analyse sociologique des parcours d’engagement, nous démontrons d’abord que plusieurs types de parcours ont pu mener ces jeunes à s’engager au PQ. Ensuite, nous soulignons le fait que des éléments du passé, notamment par l’entremise des cours d’histoire et de la socialisation familiale, ont eu une plus grande importance que ceux d’actualité pour leur prise de conscience souverainiste. Nous montrons aussi que ces jeunes appartiennent à une génération politique pour laquelle les grands évènements de l’histoire du mouvement souverainiste ne peuvent plus être considérés comme étant des moments critiques des parcours d’engagement. Nous démontrons finalement que l’analyse des orientations politiques des personnes permet de mieux comprendre les différences entre les différents processus d’engagement.