Arrested Drunk Drivers : Trends, social background, recidivism and mortality

The aim of this study was to examine the trends, incidence and recidivism of drunken driving during a 20-year period (1988 - 2007) using the data on all suspected drunken driving in this period. Furthermore, the association between social background and drunken driving, and the mortality of drunk drivers were studied by using administrative register data provided by Statistics Finland. The study was completely register-based. In 1989 - 1991, every year 30,000 drivers were suspected of drunken driving, but the number fell to less than 20,000 by 1994, during the economic recession. The changes in the arrest incidence of the youngest age groups were especially pronounced, most of all in the age group of 18 - 19-year olds. Even though the incidence among youth decreased dramatically, their incidence rate was still twice that of the general population aged 15 - 84 years. Drunken driving was associated with a poor social background among youth and working-aged men and women. For example, a low level of education, unemployment, divorce, and parental factors in youth were associated with a higher risk of being arrested for drunken driving. While a low income was related to more drunken driving among working-aged people, the effect among young persons was the opposite. Every third drunk driver got rearrested during a 15-year period, whereas the estimated rearrest rate was 44%. Findings of drugs only or in combination with alcohol increased the risk of rearrest. The highest rearrest rates were seen among drivers who were under the influence of amphetamines or cannabis. Also male gender, young age, high blood alcohol concentration, and arrest during weekdays and in the daytime predicted rearrest. When compared to the general population, arrested drunk drivers had significant excess mortality. The greatest relative differences were seen in alcohol-related causes of death (including alcohol diseases and alcohol poisoning), accidents, suicides and violence. Also mortality due to other than alcohol-related diseases was elevated among drunk drivers. Drunken driving was associated with multiple factors linked to traffic safety, health and social problems. Social marginalization may expose a person to harmful use of alcohol and drunken driving, and the associations are seen already among the youth. Recidivism is common among drunk drivers, and driving under the influence of illicit and/or medicinal drugs is likely to indicate worse substance abuse problems, judging from the high rearrest rates. High alcohol-related mortality in this population shows that drunken driving is clearly an indicator of alcohol abuse. More effective measures of preventing alcohol-related harms are needed, than merely preventing convicted drunk drivers from driving again.

Elämänmuutoksen, jännityksen ja asiantuntijuuden representointi Veikkaus Oy:n mainonnassa vuosina 1970— 2006

Aim of this master's thesis paper for consumer economics, is to research gambling advertisements in Finland over a period of 35 years, from 1970 to 2006. Veikkaus Oy (later Veikkaus), was founded in 1940, as one of the three licensed gambling organizations in Finland. Material for the current research comprised 1494 advertisements published by Veikkaus in newspapers and magazines at that time. Veikkaus has the exclusive licence to organize lotto games, sport games, instant games and other draw games in Finland. The other two operators, The Finnish Slot Machine Association RAY and Fintoto (on-track horse betting), were not included in the current analysis. This study has been completed according to research contract and grand by the Finnish Foundation for Gaming Research (Pelitoiminnan tutkimussäätiö). In general, advertisements reflect surrounding culture and time, and their message is built on stratified meanings, symbols and codes. Advertising draws the viewer's attention, introduces the advertised subject, and finally, affects the individual's consumption habits. However, advertisements not only work on individual level, but also influence public perception of the advertised product. Firstly, in order to assess gambling as a phenomenon, this paper discusses gambling as consumer behaviour, and also reviews history of gambling in Finland. Winning is a major feature of gambling, and dreaming about positive change of life is a centre of most gambling ads. However, perceived excitement through risk of losing can also be featured in gambling ads. Secondly, this study utilizes Veikkaus’ large advertising archives, were advertising data is analyzed by content analysis and the semiotic analysis. Two methods have been employed to support analyzing outcome in a synergistic way. Content analysis helps to achieve accuracy and comprehensiveness. Semiotic analysis allows deeper and more sensitive analysis to emerged findings and occurrences. It is important to understand the advertised product, as advertising is bound to the culture and time. Hence, to analyze advertising, it is important to understand the environment where the ads appear. Content analysis of Veikkaus data discovered the main gambling and principal advertisement style for each.period. Interestingly, nearly half of Veikkaus’ advertisements promoted topic other than “just winning the bet”. Games of change, like Lotto, typically advertised indirectly represented dreams about winning. In the category of skill gambling, features were represented as investment, and the excitement of sporting expertise was emphasized. In addition, there were a number of gambling ads that emphasize social responsibility of Veikkaus as a government guided organization. Semiotic methods were employed to further elaborate on findings of content analysis. Dreaming in the advertisements was represented by the product of symbols, (e.g. cars and homes) that were found to have significance connection with each other. Thus, advertising represents change of life obtained by the winning. Interestingly, gambling ads promoting jackpots were often representing religious symbolisms. Ads promoting social responsibility were found to be the most common during economical depression of the 90’s. Deeper analysis showed that at that time, advertisements frequently represented depression-related meanings, such as unemployment and bank loans. Skill gaming ads were often represented by sports expertise – late 90’s, their number started sky rocketing, and continued increasing until 2006 (when this study ended). One may conclude that sport betting draws its meanings from the relevant consumer culture, and from the rules and features of the betted sport.

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.

A mean-reverting stochastic model for the political business cycle

In this article, we look at the political business cycle problem through the lens of uncertainty. The feedback control used by us is the famous NKPC with stochasticity and wage rigidities. We extend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model to the continuous time stochastic set up with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We minimize relevant expected quadratic cost by solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The basic intuition of the classical model is qualitatively carried forward in our set up but uncertainty also plays an important role in determining the optimal trajectory of the voter support function. The internal variability of the system acts as a base shifter for the support function in the risk neutral case. The role of uncertainty is even more prominent in the risk averse case where all the shape parameters are directly dependent on variability. Thus, in this case variability controls both the rates of change as well as the base shift parameters. To gain more insight we have also studied the model when the coefficients are time invariant and studied numerical solutions. The close relationship between the unemployment rate and the support function for the incumbent party is highlighted. The role of uncertainty in creating sampling fluctuation in this set up, possibly towards apparently anomalous results, is also explored.

Nationwide-US newspaper coverage of handling water contamination : a community structure approach

Resumen: Empleando la teoría de la “estructura comunitaria”, un muestreo de diarios principales en 28 ciudades grandes en Estados Unidos examina la cobertura del tema “El manejo de contaminación de agua y acceso a agua potable”. Mediante el análisis de todos los artículos de más de 250 palabras publicados a través de diez años entre 01/01/2001 y 01/01/2011 (339 artículos), se compararon sistemáticamente características comunitarias y el “Vector Mediático” de Pollock (combinando en un valor dos medidas de contenido: la “prominencia” de un artículo en un periódico con la orientación o tono). Cobertura “favorable”, que apoya la mayor ayuda gubernamental para mejorar el abastecimiento de agua potable, fue vinculada con medidas de “los interesados”, por ejemplo, con el porcentaje de hispanos (r de Pearson = .349, p = .04). El análisis de las medidas y su regresión reveló dos medidas significativas asociadas con apoyo para manejo gubernamental por agua potable: porcentaje de hispanos (12.2% de la varianza), y con porcentaje de ciudadanos de 18-24 años, 16.7%. Inesperadamente, la cobertura de manejo gubernamental para mejorar las existencias de agua potable no fue vinculado ni con medidas de “vulnerabilidad” (pobreza, desempleo) ni con medidas de “estabilidad” (educación, ingreso).

Desempleo y políticas del mercado laboral. Análisis internacional de políticas públicas : algunos casos exitosos

Resumen: En los últimos quince años, mientras la mayoría de los países del mundo sufrieron un aumento o estabilidad en el nivel de desempleo, algunos países han logrado mejorar significativamente su situación. Este trabajo lleva a cabo una revisión de la literatura con respecto a las políticas de empleo y del mercado laboral de esos países con el objetivo de extraer algunas lecciones de estas ‘buenas prácticas’. Cabe aclarar que el objetivo no consiste en recomendar políticas específicas para Argentina sino simplemente destacar la relevancia de algunas características comunes que presentan estos casos exitosos. Los países exitosos, además de experimentar una buena performance en términos de crecimiento económico, implementaron un conjunto de políticas que van desde políticas del mercado laboral activas a un amplio sistema de seguridad social, mayor flexibilidad laboral y políticas salariales moderadas.

Endogenous Unions Formation

This paper analyzes the process of endogenous union formation in the context of a sequential bargaining model between a firm and several unions and tries to explain why workers may be represented by several unions of different sizes. We show that the equilibrium number of unions and their relative size depend on workers' attitudes toward the risk of unemployment and union configuration is independent of labor productivity.

Immigrants Responsiveness to Labor Market Conditions

Using data from the Spanish Labor Force Survey (Encuesta de Población Activa) from 1999 through 2004, we explore the role of regional employment opportunities in explaining the increasing immigrant flows of recent years despite the limited internal mobility on the part of natives. Subsequently, we investigate the policy question of whether immigration has helped reduced unemployment rate disparities across Spanish regions by attracting immigrant flows to regions offering better employment opportunities. Our results indicate that immigrants choose to reside in regions with larger employment rates and where their probability of finding a job is higher. In particular, and despite some differences depending on their origin, immigrants appear generally more responsive than their native counterparts to a higher likelihood of informal, self, or indefinite employment. More importantly, insofar the vast majority of immigrants locate in regions characterized by higher employment rates, immigration contributes to greasing the wheels of the Spanish labor market by narrowing regional unemployment rate disparities.

Optimal Fiscal Policy with Rationing in the Labor Market

Published as an article in: Topics in Macroeconomics, 2005, vol. 5, issue 1, article 17.

Costes potenciales ante el déficit de señalización en la Licenciatura de Ciencias Económicas para la Empresa

[ES] El desempleo existente entre los recién licenciados en España ha alcanzado un nivel récord comparado con el resto de los países en la Unión Europea. A su vez no hay ningún país en la Unión Europea que cuente con tantos estudiantes y licenciados como España. Este artículo no muestra los altos costes para los recién licenciados y el estado en general, sino se centra en los potenciales costes para las empresas en este país que conllevan estas circunstancias. Como base teórica este artículo aplicará los resultados de la Teoría de la agencia para hacer ver que las titulaciones tanto universitarias como no universitarias pueden sufrir una deflación permanente del valor. Con ayuda del ejemplo de la situación de los recién licenciados en Ingeniería y Empresariales en España frente a Alemania este artículo muestra como la deficiente señalización de las titulaciones puede provocar los ya mencionados costes.

Innovación y crecimiento económico: Factores que estimulan la innovación

[ES] El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el papel que desempeñan las innovaciones en la actividad económica. En este sentido, se muestra la relación que existe entre innovaciones y crecimiento económico, como objetivo esencial actual de la política económica para reducir el desempleo y aumentar el bienestar social.

Time Variation in an Optimal Asymmetric Preference Monetary Policy Model

This paper considers a time varying parameter extension of the Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) model to explore whether some of the variation in parameter estimates seen in the literature could arise from this source. A time varying value for the unemployment volatility parameter can be motivated through several means including variation in the slope of the Phillips curve or variation in the preferences of the monetary authority.We show that allowing time variation for the coefficient on the unemployment volatility parameter improves the model fit and it helps to provide an explanation of inflation bias based on asymmetric central banker preferences, which is consistent across subsamples.

Optimal Monetary Policy with Asymmetric Preferences for Output

Using a model of an optimizing monetary authority which has preferences that weigh inflation and unemployment, Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) finds empirical evidence that the authority has asymmetric preferences for unemployment. We extend this model to weigh inflation and output and show that the empirical evidence using these series also supports an asymmetric preference hypothesis, only in our case, preferences are asymmetric for output. We also find evidence that the monetary authority targets potential output rather than some higher output level as would be the case in an extended Barro and Gordon (1983) model.

Promoting women participation in fish culture enterprises - as a means of poverty alleviation in Nigeria

One major aspect of the poverty status in Nigeria is the high rate of unemployment with the attendant economic in capacity, which in turn is responsible for the persistent problem of malnutrition over the decades. This paper is focused on how women can be empowered for better productivity in fish culture enterprises, seeing that women have been active in different aspects of agricultural production. They also sustain more than half of the developing countries such as Nigeria. Some problems being encountered by would be women fish farmers and suggestions on how women participation in fish and shellfish culture enterprises can be enhanced are proffered. The major ones being those sustainable policies by the Government State ADPs and NGOs are applied to ensure adequate motivation of women for fish culture enterprises

From Shadow to Green: Linking Environmental Fiscal Reforms and the Informal Economy

47 p.