Constructing good deals in discrete time arbitrage-free dynamic pricing models

Recent literature has proved that many classical pricing models (Black and Scholes, Heston, etc.) and risk measures (V aR, CV aR, etc.) may lead to “pathological meaningless situations”, since traders can build sequences of portfolios whose risk leveltends to −infinity and whose expected return tends to +infinity, i.e., (risk = −infinity, return = +infinity). Such a sequence of strategies may be called “good deal”. This paper focuses on the risk measures V aR and CV aR and analyzes this caveat in a discrete time complete pricing model. Under quite general conditions the explicit expression of a good deal is given, and its sensitivity with respect to some possible measurement errors is provided too. We point out that a critical property is the absence of short sales. In such a case we first construct a “shadow riskless asset” (SRA) without short sales and then the good deal is given by borrowing more and more money so as to invest in the SRA. It is also shown that the SRA is interested by itself, even if there are short selling restrictions.

Evidence of portuguese stock market abnormal returns

According to the stock market efficiency theory, it is not possible to consistently beat the market. However, technical analysis is more and more spread as an efficient way to achieve abnormal returns. In fact there is evidence that momentum investing strategies provide abnormal returns in different stock markets, Jegadeesh, N. and Titman, S. (1993), George, T. and Hwang, C. (2004) and Du, D. (2009). In this work we study if like other markets, the Portuguese stock market also allows to obtain abnormal returns, using a strategy that consists in picking stocks according to their past performance. Our work confirms the results of Soares, J. and Serra, A. (2005) and Pereira, P. (2009), showing that an investor can get abnormal returns investing in momentum portfolios. The Portuguese stock market evidences momentum returns in short term, exhibiting reversal in long term.

Multilingualism and interpreting: training for the EU

AGM and Conference in Mechelen 27 – 30 April 2010

Abordagem ao risco de crédito no âmbito do acordo de Basileia III em Portugal

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira

Plano de negócios para empresa de turismo de luxo

Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais

Plano de negócios para empresa de iluminação de emergência

Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais

Influence of wearing an unstable shoe on thigh and leg muscle activity and venous response in upright standing

Purpose: To quantify the effect of unstable shoe wearing on muscle activity and haemodynamic response during standing. Methods: Thirty volunteers were divided into 2 groups: the experimental group wore an unstable shoe for 8 weeks, while the control group used a conventional shoe for the same period. Muscle activity of the medial gastrocnemius, tibialis anterior, rectus femoris and biceps femoris and venous circulation were assessed in quiet standing with the unstable shoe and barefoot. Results: In the first measurement there was an increase in medial gastrocnemius activity in all volunteers while wearing the unstable shoe. On the other hand, after wearing the unstable shoe for eight weeks these differences were not verified. Venous return increased in subjects wearing the unstable shoe before and after training. Conclusions: The unstable shoe produced changes in electromyographic characteristics which were advantageous for venous circulation even after training accommodation by the neuromuscular system.

Alianças estratégicas: análise do sector exportador de produtos português

Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais

A decision-support system based on particle swarm optimization for multiperiod hedging in electricity markets

This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.

Avaliação da satisfação dos dadores do Instituto Português do Sangue - Centro Regional de Sangue do Porto

No contexto da qualidade o grau de satisfação do dador é um indicador importante, permitindo melhorar os serviços e promover o seu retorno. Com o objectivo de avaliar o grau de satisfação dos dadores do IPS-Centro Regional de Sangue do Porto realizou-se estudo descritivo transversal, numa amostra de 512 dadores. Verificou-se que os dadores encontram-se Satisfeitos e Muito Satisfeitos com a instituição e que existe associação entre o grau de satisfação e 5 variáveis independentes. Conclui-se que os recursos humanos IPS-CRSP desempenham a sua função adequadamente, ficando identificada como área para melhoria o alargamento do horário de atendimento.

A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Fundos de investimento imobiliário

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

Gestão sustentável da água em empreendimentos turísticos

O presente documento enquadra-se no âmbito do trabalho final do mestrado (TFM) do curso de Engenharia Civil, na área de especialização de Hidráulica, do Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, sob a forma de um projeto na fase de estudo prévio com o título ―Gestão Sustentável da Água no empreendimento turístico Parque de Campismo da Ilha do Pessegueiro situado em Porto Covo - Região de Turismo do Alentejo‖. Este trabalho é constituído essencialmente por 5 partes. Sendo a primeira uma breve introdução às questões a abordar, a segunda corresponde à discrição teórica do uso eficiente da água baseando-se no PNEUA (Programa nacional para o uso eficiente da água). Já a terceira parte é relativa ao atual sistema de utilização da água no Parque de campismo da ilha do pessegueiro (PCIP), sendo a quarta o estudo do desenvolvimento do projecto para a gestão eficiente da água no empreendimento e a quinta parte o estudo de viabilidade económica e financeira a implementar no projecto. Para além da implementação de medidas de poupança são também objetivos principais deste trabalho a reutilização da água através da recolha, o tratamento e armazenamento das águas residuais e aproveitamento das águas pluviais para posterior abastecimento do sistema de utilização em descargas sanitárias, lavagem de pavimentos e regas de espaços verdes. São, portanto, três os subsistemas de gestão eficiente da água que se pretende implementar. Dá-se importância ao estudo de viabilidade económica do projeto, cujo período de retorno do capital investido em capitais próprios e alheios é de seis anos. Este projeto pretende dar apoio técnico ao uso eficiente da água no PCIP, de forma a conseguir por um lado obter vantagens económicas e por outro proteger o ambiente. As vantagens económicas são interessantes para orientar os recursos financeiros para outros investimentos e as questões ambientais são a base de uma campanha, já em curso, para obtenção de certificação energética, em conjunto com outras práticas já em curso, nomeadamente a recolha seletiva de resíduos sólidos para recircular e aproveitamento de energia solar.

Avaliação da performance empresarial: as métricas tradicionais versus as métricas baseadas em valor

Mestrado em Controlo e Gestão dos Negócios