Forecasting US output growth with non-linear models in the presence of data uncertainty

We consider the impact of data revisions on the forecast performance of a SETAR regime-switching model of U.S. output growth. The impact of data uncertainty in real-time forecasting will affect a model's forecast performance via the effect on the model parameter estimates as well as via the forecast being conditioned on data measured with error. We find that benchmark revisions do affect the performance of the non-linear model of the growth rate, and that the performance relative to a linear comparator deteriorates in real-time compared to a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise.

Booms and busts in commodity markets: bubbles or fundamentals?

This paper considers whether there were periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in commodity prices over a 40-year period from the late 1960s. We apply a switching regression approach to a broad range of commodities using two different measures of fundamental values—estimated from convenience yields and from a set of macroeconomic factors believed to affect commodity demand. We find reliable evidence for bubbles only among crude oil and feeder cattle, showing the popular belief that the extreme price movements observed in commodity markets were caused by pure speculation to be unsustainable

Comparing performance of instrumental drift correction by linear and quadratic adjusting in inductive electromagnetic data

Electromagnetic induction (EMI) method results are shown for vertical magnetic dipole (VMD) configuration by using the EM38 equipment. Performance in the location of metallic pipes and electrical cables is compared as a function of instrumental drift correction by linear and quadratic adjusting under controlled conditions. Metallic pipes and electrical cables are buried at the IAG/USP shallow geophysical test site in Sao Paulo City. Brazil. Results show that apparent electrical conductivity and magnetic susceptibility data were affected by ambient temperature variation. In order to obtain better contrast between background and metallic targets it was necessary to correct the drift. This correction was accomplished by using linear and quadratic relation between conductivity/susceptibility and temperature intending comparative studies. The correction of temperature drift by using a quadratic relation was effective, showing that all metallic targets were located as well deeper targets were also improved. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods of Estimation in Multiple Linear Regression: Application to Clinical Data

Nesse artigo, tem-se o interesse em avaliar diferentes estratégias de estimação de parâmetros para um modelo de regressão linear múltipla. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo foram utilizados dados de um ensaio clínico em que o interesse foi verificar se o ensaio mecânico da propriedade de força máxima (EM-FM) está associada com a massa femoral, com o diâmetro femoral e com o grupo experimental de ratas ovariectomizadas da raça Rattus norvegicus albinus, variedade Wistar. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo serão comparadas três metodologias: a metodologia clássica, baseada no método dos mínimos quadrados; a metodologia Bayesiana, baseada no teorema de Bayes; e o método Bootstrap, baseado em processos de reamostragem.

Magnetic linear dichroism in absorption spectroscopy of EuTe

The magnetic linear dichroism (MLD) at band-edge photon energies in the Voigt geometry was calculated for EuTe. At the spin-flop transition, MLD shows a step-like increase. Above the spin-flop transition MLD slowly decreases and becomes zero when the averaged electronic charge becomes symmetric relative to the axis of light propagation. Further increase of the magnetic field causes ferromagnetic alignment of the spins along the magnetic field direction, and MLD is recovered but with an opposite sign, and reaches maximum absolute values. These results are explained by the rearrangement of the Eu(2+) spin distribution in the crystal lattice as a function of magnetic field, due to the Zeeman interaction, demonstrating that MLD can be a sensitive probe of the spin order in EuTe, and provides information that is not accessible from other magneto-optical techniques, such as magnetic circular dichroism measurement studies.

Improved score tests in symmetric linear regression models

The class of symmetric linear regression models has the normal linear regression model as a special case and includes several models that assume that the errors follow a symmetric distribution with longer-than-normal tails. An important member of this class is the t linear regression model, which is commonly used as an alternative to the usual normal regression model when the data contain extreme or outlying observations. In this article, we develop second-order asymptotic theory for score tests in this class of models. We obtain Bartlett-corrected score statistics for testing hypotheses on the regression and the dispersion parameters. The corrected statistics have chi-squared distributions with errors of order O(n(-3/2)), n being the sample size. The corrections represent an improvement over the corresponding original Rao`s score statistics, which are chi-squared distributed up to errors of order O(n(-1)). Simulation results show that the corrected score tests perform much better than their uncorrected counterparts in samples of small or moderate size.

Improved testing inference in mixed linear models

Mixed linear models are commonly used in repeated measures studies. They account for the dependence amongst observations obtained from the same experimental unit. Often, the number of observations is small, and it is thus important to use inference strategies that incorporate small sample corrections. In this paper, we develop modified versions of the likelihood ratio test for fixed effects inference in mixed linear models. In particular, we derive a Bartlett correction to such a test, and also to a test obtained from a modified profile likelihood function. Our results generalize those in [Zucker, D.M., Lieberman, O., Manor, O., 2000. Improved small sample inference in the mixed linear model: Bartlett correction and adjusted likelihood. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 62,827-838] by allowing the parameter of interest to be vector-valued. Additionally, our Bartlett corrections allow for random effects nonlinear covariance matrix structure. We report simulation results which show that the proposed tests display superior finite sample behavior relative to the standard likelihood ratio test. An application is also presented and discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ANTISYMMETRIC ELEMENTS IN GROUP RINGS II

Let R be a commutative ring, G a group and RG its group ring. Let phi : RG -> RG denote the R-linear extension of an involution phi defined on G. An element x in RG is said to be phi-antisymmetric if phi(x) = -x. A characterization is given of when the phi-antisymmetric elements of RG commute. This is a completion of earlier work.

Nuclear elements of degree 6 in the free alternative algebra

We construct five new elements of degree 6 in the nucleus of the free alternative algebra. We use the representation theory of the symmetric group to locate the elements. We use the computer algebra system ALBERT and an extension of ALBERT to express the elements in compact form and to show that these new elements are not a consequence of the known clegree-5 elements in the nucleus. We prove that these five new elements and four known elements form a basis for the subspace of nuclear elements of degree 6. Our calculations are done using modular arithmetic to save memory and time. The calculations can be done in characteristic zero or any prime greater than 6, and similar results are expected. We generated the nuclear elements using prime 103. We check our answer using five other primes.

INVOLUTIONS AND FREE PAIRS OF BASS CYCLIC UNITS IN INTEGRAL GROUP RINGS

Let ZG be the integral group ring of the finite nonabelian group G over the ring of integers Z, and let * be an involution of ZG that extends one of G. If x and y are elements of G, we investigate when pairs of the form (u(k,m)(x*), u(k,m)(x*)) or (u(k,m)(x), u(k,m)(y)), formed respectively by Bass cyclic and *-symmetric Bass cyclic units, generate a free noncyclic subgroup of the unit group of ZG.

Description of costandard modules for Schur superalgebra S(2 vertical bar 1) in positive characteristic

We describe the characters of simple modules and composition factors of costandard modules for S(2 vertical bar 1) in positive characteristics and verify a conjecture of La Scala-Zubkov regarding polynomial superinvariants for GL(2 vertical bar 1).

Galois orders in skew monoid rings

We introduce a new class of noncommutative rings - Galois orders, realized as certain subrings of invariants in skew semigroup rings, and develop their structure theory. The class of Calms orders generalizes classical orders in noncommutative rings and contains many important examples, such as the Generalized Weyl algebras, the universal enveloping algebra of the general linear Lie algebra, associated Yangians and finite W-algebras (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved

An algebraic theory for generalized Jordan chains and partial signatures in the Lagrangian Grassmannian

We discuss an algebraic theory for generalized Jordan chains and partial signatures, that are invariants associated to sequences of symmetric bilinear forms on a vector space. We introduce an intrinsic notion of partial signatures in the Lagrangian Grassmannian of a symplectic space that does not use local coordinates, and we give a formula for the Maslov index of arbitrary real analytic paths in terms of partial signatures.