945 resultados para Estimator standard error and efficiency


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Ocean acidification (OA) threatens the existence of coral reefs by slowing the rate of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) production of framework-building corals thus reducing the amount of CaCO3 the reef can produce to counteract natural dissolution. Some evidence exists to suggest that elevated levels of dissolved inorganic nutrients can reduce the impact of OA on coral calcification. Here, we investigated the potential for enhanced energetic status of juvenile corals, achieved via heterotrophic feeding, to modulate the negative impact of OA on calcification. Larvae of the common Atlantic golf ball coral, Favia fragum, were collected and reared for 3 weeks under ambient (421 µatm) or significantly elevated (1,311 µatm) CO2 conditions. The metamorphosed, zooxanthellate spat were either fed brine shrimp (i.e., received nutrition from photosynthesis plus heterotrophy) or not fed (i.e., primarily autotrophic). Regardless of CO2 condition, the skeletons of fed corals exhibited accelerated development of septal cycles and were larger than those of unfed corals. At each CO2 level, fed corals accreted more CaCO3 than unfed corals, and fed corals reared under 1,311 µatm CO2 accreted as much CaCO3 as unfed corals reared under ambient CO2. However, feeding did not alter the sensitivity of calcification to increased CO2; Delta calcification/Delta Omega was comparable for fed and unfed corals. Our results suggest that calcification rates of nutritionally replete juvenile corals will decline as OA intensifies over the course of this century. Critically, however, such corals could maintain higher rates of skeletal growth and CaCO3 production under OA than those in nutritionally limited environments.

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Rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are changing the carbonate chemistry of the oceans, a process known as ocean acidification (OA). Absorption of this CO2 by the surface oceans is increasing the amount of total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and bicarbonate ion (HCO3) available for marine calcification yet is simultaneously lowering the seawater pH and carbonate ion concentration ([CO3]), and thus the saturation state of seawater with respect to aragonite. We investigated the relative importance of [HCO3] versus [CO3] for early calcification by new recruits (primary polyps settled from zooxanthellate larvae) of two tropical coral species, Favia fragum and Porites astreoides. The polyps were reared over a range of ?ar values, which were manipulated by both acid-addition at constant pCO2 (decreased total [HCO3] and [CO3]) and by pCO2 elevation at constant alkalinity (increased [HCO3], decreased [CO3]). Calcification after 2 weeks was quantified by weighing the complete skeleton (corallite) accreted by each polyp over the course of the experiment. Both species exhibited the same negative response to decreasing [CO3] whether ?ar was lowered by acid-addition or by pCO2 elevation-calcification did not follow total DIC or [HCO3]. Nevertheless, the calcification response to decreasing [CO3] was nonlinear. A statistically significant decrease in calcification was only detected between Omega aragonite = <2.5 and Omega aragonite = 1.1-1.5, where calcification of new recruits was reduced by 22-37% per 1.0 decrease in Omega aragonite. Our results differ from many previous studies that report a linear coral calcification response to OA, and from those showing that calcification increases with increasing [HCO3]. Clearly, the coral calcification response to OA is variable and complex. A deeper understanding of the biomineralization mechanisms and environmental conditions underlying these variable responses is needed to support informed predictions about future OA impacts on corals and coral reefs.

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Volcanic CO2 seeps provide opportunities to investigate the effects of ocean acidification on organisms in the wild. To understand the influence of increasing CO2 concentrations on the metabolic rate (oxygen consumption) and the development of ocellated wrasse early life stages, we ran two field experiments, collecting embryos from nesting sites with different partial pressures of CO2 [pCO2; ambient (400 µatm) and high (800-1000 µatm)] and reciprocally transplanting embryos from ambient- to high-CO2 sites for 30 h. Ocellated wrasse offspring brooded in different CO2 conditions had similar responses, but after transplanting portions of nests to the high-CO2 site, embryos from parents that spawned in ambient conditions had higher metabolic rates. Although metabolic phenotypic plasticity may show a positive response to high CO2, it often comes at a cost, in this case as a smaller size at hatching. This can have adverse effects because smaller larvae often exhibit a lower survival in the wild. However, the adverse effects of increased CO2 on metabolism and development did not occur when embryos from the high-CO2 nesting site were exposed to ambient conditions, suggesting that offspring from the high-CO2 nesting site could be resilient to a wider range of pCO2 values than those belonging to the site with present-day pCO2 levels. Our study identifies a crucial need to increase the number of studies dealing with these processes under global change trajectories and to expand these to naturally high-CO2 environments, in order to assess further the adaptive plasticity mechanism that encompasses non-genetic inheritance (epigenetics) through parental exposure and other downstream consequences, such as survival of larvae.

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The timing and nature of the penultimate deglaciation, also known as Termination II (T-II), is subject of controversial discussions due to the scarcity of precisely-dated palaeoclimate records. Here we present a new precisely-dated and highly-resolved multi-proxy stalagmite record covering T-II from the high alpine Schafsloch Cave in Switzerland, an area where climate is governed by the North Atlantic. The inception of stalagmite growth at 137.4 ± 1.4 kyr before present (BP) indicates the presence of drip water and cave air temperatures of above 0 °C, and is related to a climate-induced change in the thermal state (from cold-to warm-based) of the glacier above the cave. The cessation of stalagmite growth between 133.1 ± 0.7 and 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is most likely related to distinct drop in temperature associated with Heinrich stadial 11. The resumption of stalagmite growth at 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is accompanied by an abrupt increase in temperature and precipitation as indicated by distinct shifts in the oxygen and carbon isotopic composition as well as in trace element concentrations. The mid-point of T-II is around 131.8 ± 0.6 kyr BP in the Schafsloch Cave record is significantly earlier compared to the age of 129.1 ± 0.1 kyr BP in the Sanbao Cave record from China. The different ages between both records can be best explained by the competing effects of insolation and glacial boundary forcing on seasonality and snow cover extent in Eurasia.

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This study investigated the impacts of acidified seawater (pCO2 900 µatm) and elevated water temperature (+3 °C) on the early life history stages of Acropora spicifera from the subtropical Houtman Abrolhos Islands (28°S) in Western Australia. Settlement rates were unaffected by high temperature (27 °C, 250 µatm), high pCO2 (24 °C, 900 µatm), or a combination of both high temperature and high pCO2 treatments (27 °C, 900 µatm). There were also no significant differences in rates of post-settlement survival after 4 weeks of exposure between any of the treatments, with survival ranging from 60 to 70 % regardless of treatment. Similarly, calcification, as determined by the skeletal weight of recruits, was unaffected by an increase in water temperature under both ambient and high pCO2 conditions. In contrast, high pCO2 significantly reduced early skeletal development, with mean skeletal weight in the high pCO2 and combined treatments reduced by 60 and 48 %, respectively, compared to control weights. Elevated temperature appeared to have a partially mitigative effect on calcification under high pCO2; however, this effect was not significant. Our results show that rates of settlement, post-settlement survival, and calcification in subtropical corals are relatively resilient to increases in temperature. This is in marked contrast to the sensitivity to temperature reported for the majority of tropical larvae and recruits in the literature. The subtropical corals in this study appear able to withstand an increase in temperature of 3 °C above ambient, indicating that they may have a wider thermal tolerance range and may not be adversely affected by initial increases in water temperature from subtropical 24 to 27 °C. However, the reduction in skeletal weight with high pCO2 indicates that early skeletal formation will be highly vulnerable to the changes in ocean pCO2 expected to occur over the twenty-first century, with implications for their longer-term growth and resilience.

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We present new d13C measurements of atmospheric CO2 covering the last glacial/interglacial cycle, complementing previous records covering Terminations I and II. Most prominent in the new record is a significant depletion in d13C(atm) of 0.5 permil occurring during marine isotope stage (MIS) 4, followed by an enrichment of the same magnitude at the beginning of MIS 3. Such a significant excursion in the record is otherwise only observed at glacial terminations, suggesting that similar processes were at play, such as changing sea surface temperatures, changes in marine biological export in the Southern Ocean (SO) due to variations in aeolian iron fluxes, changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, upwelling of deep water in the SO, and long-term trends in terrestrial carbon storage. Based on previous modeling studies, we propose constraints on some of these processes during specific time intervals. The decrease in d13C(atm) at the end of MIS 4 starting approximately 64 kyr B.P. was accompanied by increasing [CO2]. This period is also marked by a decrease in aeolian iron flux to the SO, followed by an increase in SO upwelling during Heinrich event 6, indicating that it is likely that a large amount of d13C-depleted carbon was transferred to the deep oceans previously, i.e., at the onset of MIS 4. Apart from the upwelling event at the end of MIS 4 (and potentially smaller events during Heinrich events in MIS 3), upwelling of deep water in the SO remained reduced until the last glacial termination, whereupon a second pulse of isotopically light carbon was released into the atmosphere.

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Multiproxy geologic records of d18O and Mg/Ca in fossil foraminifera from sediments under the Eastern Pacific Warm Pool (EPWP) region west of Central America document variations in upper ocean temperature, pycnocline strength, and salinity (i.e., net precipitation) over the past 30 kyr. Although evident in the paleotemperature record, there is no glacial-interglacial difference in paleosalinity, suggesting that tropical hydrologic changes do not respond passively to high-latitude ice sheets and oceans. Millennial variations in paleosalinity with amplitudes as high as 4 practical salinity units occur with a dominant period of 3-5 ky during the glacial/deglacial interval and 1.0-1.5 ky during the Holocene. The amplitude of the EPWP paleosalinity changes greatly exceeds that of published Caribbean and western tropical Pacific paleosalinity records. EPWP paleosalinity changes correspond to millennial-scale climate changes in the surface and deep Atlantic and the high northern latitudes, with generally higher (lower) paleosalinity during cold (warm) events. In addition to Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) dynamics, which play an important role in tropical hydrologic variability, changes in Atlantic-Pacific moisture transport, which is closely linked to ITCZ dynamics, may also contribute to hydrologic variations in the EPWP. Calculations of interbasin salinity average and interbasin salinity contrast between the EPWP and the Caribbean help differentiate long-term changes in mean ITCZ position and Atlantic-Pacific moisture transport, respectively.

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Atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) has risen from approximately 280 to 400 ppm since the Industrial Revolution, due mainly to the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation, and cement production. It is predicted to reach as high as 900 ppm by the end of this century. Ocean acidification resulting from the release of anthropogenic CO2 has been shown to impair the ability of some marine calcifiers to build their shells and skeletons. Here, we present the results of ocean acidification experiments designed to assess the effects of an increase in atmospheric pCO2 from ca. 448 to 827 ppm on calcification rates of the tropical urchin Echinometra viridis. Experiments were conducted under the urchin's winter (20 °C) and summer (30 °C) water temperatures in order to identify seasonal differences in the urchin's response to ocean acidification. The experiments reveal that calcification rates decreased for urchins reared under elevated pCO2, with the decline being more pronounced under wintertime temperatures than under summertime temperatures. These results indicate that the urchin E. viridis will be negatively impacted by CO2-induced ocean acidification that is predicted to occur by the end of this century. These results also suggest that impact of CO2-induced ocean acidification on urchin calcification will be more severe in the winter and in cooler waters.

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A global sea surface temperature calibration based on the relative abundance of different morphotypes within the coccolithophore genus Gephyrocapsa in Holocene deep-sea sediments is presented. There is evidence suggesting that absolute sea surface temperature for a given location can be calculated from the relative abundance of Gephyrocapsa morphotypes in sediment samples, with a standard error comparable to temperature estimates derived from other temperature proxies such as planktic foraminifera transfer functions. A total of 110 Holocene sediment samples were selected from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans covering a mean sea surface temperature gradient from 13.6° to 29.3°C. Standard multiple linear regression analyses were applied to this data set, linking the relative abundance of Gephyrocapsa morphotypes to sea surface temperature. The best model revealed an r**2 of 0.83 with a standard residual error of 1.78°C for the estimation of mean sea surface temperature. This new proxy provides a unique opportunity for the reconstruction of paleotemperatures with a very small amount of sample material due to the minute size of coccoliths, permitting examination of thinly laminated sediments (e.g., a pinhead of material from laminated sediments for the reconstruction of annual sea surface temperature variations). Such fine-scale resolution is currently not possible with any other proxy. Application of this new paleotemperature proxy may allow new paleoenvironmental interpretations in the late Quaternary period and discrepancies between the different currently used paleotemperature proxies might be resolved.

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This synthesis dataset contains records of freshwater peat and lake sediments from continental shelves and coastal areas. Information included is site location (when available), thickness and description of terrestrial sediments as well as underlying and overlying sediments, dates (when available), and references.

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We present an almost 3 year long time series of shell fluxes and oxygen isotopes of left-coiling Neogloboquadrina pachyderma and Turborotalita quinqueloba from sediment traps moored in the deep central Irminger Sea. We determined their response to the seasonal change from a deeply mixed water column with occasional deep convection in winter to a thermally stratified water column with a surface mixed layer (SML) of around 50 m in summer. Both species display very low fluxes during winter with a remnant summer population holding out until replaced by a vital population that seeds the subsequent blooms. This annual population overturning is marked by a 0.7 per mill increase in d18O in both species. The shell flux of N. pachyderma peaks during the spring bloom and in late summer, when stratification is close to its minimum and maximum, respectively. Both export periods contribute about equally and account for >95% of the total annual flux. Shell fluxes of T. quinqueloba show only a single broad pulse in summer, thus following the seasonal stratification cycle. The d18O of N. pachyderma reflects temperatures just below the base of the seasonal SML without offset from isotopic equilibrium. The d18O pattern of T. quinqueloba shows a nearly identical amplitude and correlates highly with the d18O of N. pachyderma. Therefore T. quinqueloba also reflects temperature near the base of the SML but with a positive offset from isotopic equilibrium. These offsets contrast with observations elsewhere and suggest a variable offset from equilibrium calcification for both species. In the Irminger Sea the species consistently show a contrast in their flux timings. Their flux-weighted delta d18O will thus dominantly be determined by seasonal temperature differences at the base of the SML rather than by differences in their depth habitat. Consequently, their sedimentary delta d18O may be used to infer the seasonal contrast in temperature at the base of the SML.

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Trials in a temporal two-interval forced-choice discrimination experiment consist of two sequential intervals presenting stimuli that differ from one another as to magnitude along some continuum. The observer must report in which interval the stimulus had a larger magnitude. The standard difference model from signal detection theory analyses poses that order of presentation should not affect the results of the comparison, something known as the balance condition (J.-C. Falmagne, 1985, in Elements of Psychophysical Theory). But empirical data prove otherwise and consistently reveal what Fechner (1860/1966, in Elements of Psychophysics) called time-order errors, whereby the magnitude of the stimulus presented in one of the intervals is systematically underestimated relative to the other. Here we discuss sensory factors (temporary desensitization) and procedural glitches (short interstimulus or intertrial intervals and response bias) that might explain the time-order error, and we derive a formal model indicating how these factors make observed performance vary with presentation order despite a single underlying mechanism. Experimental results are also presented illustrating the conventional failure of the balance condition and testing the hypothesis that time-order errors result from contamination by the factors included in the model.

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Bayesian adaptive methods have been extensively used in psychophysics to estimate the point at which performance on a task attains arbitrary percentage levels, although the statistical properties of these estimators have never been assessed. We used simulation techniques to determine the small-sample properties of Bayesian estimators of arbitrary performance points, specifically addressing the issues of bias and precision as a function of the target percentage level. The study covered three major types of psychophysical task (yes-no detection, 2AFC discrimination and 2AFC detection) and explored the entire range of target performance levels allowed for by each task. Other factors included in the study were the form and parameters of the actual psychometric function Psi, the form and parameters of the model function M assumed in the Bayesian method, and the location of Psi within the parameter space. Our results indicate that Bayesian adaptive methods render unbiased estimators of any arbitrary point on psi only when M=Psi, and otherwise they yield bias whose magnitude can be considerable as the target level moves away from the midpoint of the range of Psi. The standard error of the estimator also increases as the target level approaches extreme values whether or not M=Psi. Contrary to widespread belief, neither the performance level at which bias is null nor that at which standard error is minimal can be predicted by the sweat factor. A closed-form expression nevertheless gives a reasonable fit to data describing the dependence of standard error on number of trials and target level, which allows determination of the number of trials that must be administered to obtain estimates with prescribed precision.

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Results from two deep sea cores from northeast of Newfoundland at 1251 and 2527 m water depth, respectively, indicate that during the time period from 160,000 to 10,000 years BP, ice rafting events in the Labrador Sea were accompanied by rapid variations in deep and surface water circulation. Twelve ice-rafting events occurred, each coinciding with high concentrations of detrital carbonate and oxygen isotopic depletion of both surface and bottom waters. Eleven of these can be correlated with the North Atlantic Heinrich events H1-H11. The remaining very conspicuous ice-rafting event took place early in MIS substage 5e, at a time when the planktic faunal assemblage suggests marked warming of the sea surface. In the shallower core, benthic d13C values rise from a minimum during the deglaciation to peak substage 5e values following the last ice-rafting event, indicating that the ventilation of intermediate depths was renewed after the deglaciation was complete and continued throughout substage 5e. The benthic foraminifera suggest that this well-ventilated water mass was comparable to the modern Labrador Sea Water (LSW). The benthic faunas suggest that a relatively warm intermediate water mass entered the SE Labrador Sea during Heinrich events. Generally low benthic d13C values indicate that this water mass was poorly ventilated and rich in inorganic nutrients. Isotope data and benthic faunal distributions indicate that North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formed in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea reached the SE Labrador Sea between the Heinrich events.

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Ocean acidification, as a result of increased atmospheric CO2, has the potential to adversely affect the larval stages of many marine organisms and hence have profound effects on marine ecosystems. This is the first study of its kind to investigate the effects of ocean acidification on the early life-history stages of three echinoderms species, two asteroids and one irregular echinoid. Potential latitudinal variations on the effects of ocean acidification were also investigated by selecting a polar species (Odontaster validus), a temperate species (Patiriella regularis), and a tropical species (Arachnoides placenta). The effects of reduced seawater pH levels on the fertilization of gametes, larval survival and morphometrics on the aforementioned species were evaluated under experimental conditions. The pH levels considered for this research include ambient seawater (pH 8.1 or pH 8.2), levels predicted for 2100 (pH 7.7 and pH 7.6) and the extreme pH of 7.0, adjusted by bubbling CO2 gas into filtered seawater. Fertilization for Odontaster validus and Patiriella regularis for the predicted scenarios for 2100 was robust, whereas fertilization was significantly reduced in Arachnoides placenta. Larval survival was robust for the three species at pH 7.8, but numbers declined when pH dropped below 7.6. Normal A. placenta larvae developed in pH 7.8, whereas smaller larvae were observed for O. validus and P. regularis under the same pH treatment. Seawater pH levels below 7.6 resulted in smaller and underdeveloped larvae for all three species. The greatest effects were expected for the Antarctic asteroid O. validus but overall the tropical sand dollar A. placenta was the most affected by the reduction in seawater pH. The effects of ocean acidification on the asteroids O. validus and P. regulars, and the sand dollar A. placenta are species-specific. Several parameters, such as taxonomic differences, physiology, genetic makeup and the population's evolutionary history may have contributed to this variability. This study highlights the vulnerability of the early developmental stages and the complexity of ocean acidification. However, future research is needed to understand the effects at individual, community and ecosystem levels.