Continuous-time random-walk model for financial distributions

We apply the formalism of the continuous-time random walk to the study of financial data. The entire distribution of prices can be obtained once two auxiliary densities are known. These are the probability densities for the pausing time between successive jumps and the corresponding probability density for the magnitude of a jump. We have applied the formalism to data on the U.S. dollardeutsche mark future exchange, finding good agreement between theory and the observed data.

Continuous phase transition in a spin-glass model without time-reversal symmetry

We investigate the phase transition in a strongly disordered short-range three-spin interaction model characterized by the absence of time-reversal symmetry in the Hamiltonian. In the mean-field limit the model is well described by the Adam-Gibbs-DiMarzio scenario for the glass transition; however, in the short-range case this picture turns out to be modified. The model presents a finite temperature continuous phase transition characterized by a divergent spin-glass susceptibility and a negative specific-heat exponent. We expect the nature of the transition in this three-spin model to be the same as the transition in the Edwards-Anderson model in a magnetic field, with the advantage that the strong crossover effects present in the latter case are absent.

Non independent continuous-time random walks

The usual development of the continuous-time random walk (CTRW) assumes that jumps and time intervals are a two-dimensional set of independent and identically distributed random variables. In this paper, we address the theoretical setting of nonindependent CTRWs where consecutive jumps and/or time intervals are correlated. An exact solution to the problem is obtained for the special but relevant case in which the correlation solely depends on the signs of consecutive jumps. Even in this simple case, some interesting features arise, such as transitions from unimodal to bimodal distributions due to correlation. We also develop the necessary analytical techniques and approximations to handle more general situations that can appear in practice.

Parrondo-like behavior in continuous-time random walks with memory

The continuous-time random walk (CTRW) formalism can be adapted to encompass stochastic processes with memory. In this paper we will show how the random combination of two different unbiased CTRWs can give rise to a process with clear drift, if one of them is a CTRW with memory. If one identifies the other one as noise, the effect can be thought of as a kind of stochastic resonance. The ultimate origin of this phenomenon is the same as that of the Parrondo paradox in game theory.

The effect of continuous positive airway pressure on total cerebral blood flow in healthy awake volunteers.

PURPOSE: Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is the gold standard treatment for obstructive sleep apnea. However, the physiologic impact of CPAP on cerebral blood flow (CBF) is not well established. Ultrasound can be used to estimate CBF, but there is no widespread accepted protocol. We studied the physiologic influence of CPAP on CBF using a method integrating arterial diameter and flow velocity (FV) measurements obtained for each vessel supplying blood to the brain. METHODS: FV and lumen diameter of the left and right internal carotid, vertebral, and middle cerebral arteries were measured using duplex Doppler ultrasound with and without CPAP at 15 cm H(2)O, applied in a random order. Transcutaneous carbon dioxide (PtcCO(2)), heart rate (HR), blood pressure (BP), and oxygen saturation were monitored. Results were compared with a theoretical prediction of CBF change based on the effect of partial pressure of carbon dioxide on CBF. RESULTS: Data were obtained from 23 healthy volunteers (mean ± SD; 12 male, age 25.1 ± 2.6 years, body mass index 21.8 ± 2.0 kg/m(2)). The mean experimental and theoretical CBF decrease under CPAP was 12.5 % (p < 0.001) and 11.9 % (p < 0.001), respectively. The difference between experimental and theoretical CBF reduction was not statistically significant (3.84 ± 79 ml/min, p = 0.40). There was a significant reduction in PtcCO(2) with CPAP (p = <0.001) and a significant increase in mean BP (p = 0.0017). No significant change was observed in SaO(2) (p = 0.21) and HR (p = 0.62). CONCLUSION: Duplex Doppler ultrasound measurements of arterial diameter and FV allow for a noninvasive bedside estimation of CBF. CPAP at 15 cm H(2)O significantly decreased CBF in healthy awake volunteers. This effect appeared to be mediated predominately through the hypocapnic vasoconstriction coinciding with PCO(2) level reduction. The results suggest that CPAP should be used cautiously in patients with unstable cerebral hemodynamics.

Prognostic value of continuous EEG monitoring during therapeutic hypothermia after cardiac arrest.

Introduction: Continuous EEG (cEEG) is increasingly used to monitor brain function in neuro-ICU patients. However, its value in patients with coma after cardiac arrest (CA), particularly in the setting of therapeutic hypothermia (TH), is only beginning to be elucidated. The aim of this study was to examine whether cEEG performed during TH may predict outcome. Methods: From April 2009 to April 2010, we prospectively studied 34 consecutive comatose patients treated with TH after CA who were monitored with cEEG, initiated during hypothermia and maintained after rewarming. EEG background reactivity to painful stimulation was tested. We analyzed the association between cEEG findings and neurologic outcome, assessed at 2 months with the Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). Results: Continuous EEG recording was started 12 ± 6 hours after CA and lasted 30 ± 11 hours. Nonreactive cEEG background (12 of 15 (75%) among nonsurvivors versus none of 19 (0) survivors; P < 0.001) and prolonged discontinuous "burst-suppression" activity (11 of 15 (73%) versus none of 19; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with mortality. EEG seizures with absent background reactivity also differed significantly (seven of 15 (47%) versus none of 12 (0); P = 0.001). In patients with nonreactive background or seizures/epileptiform discharges on cEEG, no improvement was seen after TH. Nonreactive cEEG background during TH had a positive predictive value of 100% (95% confidence interval (CI), 74 to 100%) and a false-positive rate of 0 (95% CI, 0 to 18%) for mortality. All survivors had cEEG background reactivity, and the majority of them (14 (74%) of 19) had a favorable outcome (CPC 1 or 2). Conclusions: Continuous EEG monitoring showing a nonreactive or discontinuous background during TH is strongly associated with unfavorable outcome in patients with coma after CA. These data warrant larger studies to confirm the value of continuous EEG monitoring in predicting prognosis after CA and TH.

Treating the individual hypertensive patient: considerations on dose, sequential monotherapy and drug combinations.

For the general practitioner to be able to prescribe optimal therapy to his individual hypertensive patients, he needs accurate information on the therapeutic agents he is going to administer and practical treatment strategies. The information on drugs and drug combinations has to be applicable to the treatment of individual patients and not just patient study groups. A basic requirement is knowledge of the dose-response relationship for each compound in order to choose the optimal therapeutic dose. Contrary to general assumption, this key information is difficult to obtain and often not available to the physician for many years after marketing of a drug. As a consequence, excessive doses are often used. Furthermore, the physician needs comparative data on the various antihypertensive drugs that are applicable to the treatment of individual patients. In order to minimize potential side effects due to unnecessary combinations of compounds, the strategy of sequential monotherapy is proposed, with the goal of treating as many patients as possible with monotherapy at optimal doses. More drug trials of a crossover design and more individualized analyses of the results are badly needed to provide the physician with information that he can use in his daily practice. In this time of continuous intensive development of new antihypertensive agents, much could be gained in enhanced efficacy and reduced incidence of side effects by taking a closer look at the drugs already available and using them more appropriately in individual patients.

Continuous recording intrarectal pressures during the second phase of labor.

Parameters of intrarectal pressure (surface area under pressure curve and peak pressure) recorded with a microsystem device during the second phase of labor showed no significant correlations with baby's weight or mode of delivery. AIM OF THE STUDY: Was to assess the biomechanical pressures delivered against pelvic floor structures during the second phase of labor in nulliparae women, and to correlate them with obstetrics parameters, i.e. baby'sweight and mode of delivery. MATERIAL: Using a microsystem device placed into the rectum at the beginning of the second phase of labor, two parameters were assessed during the bearing efforts in 59 nulliparae women: the surface area under the pressure curve and the peak pressure. RESULTS: During 11.5±9 bearing efforts of 99.1±16s duration, the mean value of surface area under the pressure curve was 32677±26058cm/s and the mean value of the peak pressure was 60.7±24cmH(2)O, exceeding 100cmH(2)O in 10% of women. These two parameters were not correlated with baby's weight (R: 0.19, P: 0.15 and R: 0.05, P: 0.71). In the same way, these two parameters were not correlated with the mode of delivery (spontaneous or forceps/vacuum-assisted). Furthermore, the individual values of these two parameters showed great variation from one woman to another. CONCLUSION: This study has showed that parameters of biomechanical pressures recorded into the rectum during second phase of labor had no significant correlations with obstetricals parameters, explaining why these latter have poor predicitive value of further pelvic floor problems.

Optimization of analytical methods for the assessment of the quality of fats and oils used in continuous deep fat frying

La aplicabilidad, repetibilidad y capacidad de diferentes métodos de análisis para discriminar muestras de aceites con diferentes grados de oxidación fueron evaluadas mediante aceites recogidos en procesos de fritura en continuo en varias empresas españolas. El objetivo de este trabajo fue encontrar métodos complementarios a la determinación del índice de acidez para el control de calidad rutinario de los aceites de fritura empleados en estas empresas. La optimización de la determinación de la constante dieléctrica conllevó una clara mejora de la variabilidad. No obstante, excepto en el caso del índice del ATB, el resto de métodos ensayados mostraron una menor variabilidad. La determinación del índice del ATB fue descartada ya que su sensibilidad fue insuficiente para discriminar entre aceites con diferente grado de oxidación. Los diferentes parámetros de alteración determinados en los aceites de fritura mostraron correlaciones significativas entre el índice de acidez y varios parámetros de oxidación diferentes, como la constante dieléctrica, el índice de p-anisidina, la absorción al ultravioleta y el contenido en polímeros de los triacilgliceroles. El índice de acidez solo evalúa la alteración hidrolítica, por lo que estos parámetros aportan información complementaria al evaluar la alteración termooxidativa.

Mean first-passage time of continuous non-Markovian processes driven by colored noise

An equation for mean first-passage times of non-Markovian processes driven by colored noise is derived through an appropriate backward integro-differential equation. The equation is solved in a Bourret-like approximation. In a weak-noise bistable situation, non-Markovian effects are taken into account by an effective diffusion coefficient. In this situation, our results compare satisfactorily with other approaches and experimental data.

Continuous sunitinib treatment in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC): A multicenter phase II trial (SAKK 77/06 and SASL 23)

Background: Sunitinib (SU) is a multitargeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor with antitumor and antiangiogenetic activity. Evidence for clinical activity in HCC was reported in 2 phase II trials [Zhu et al and Faivre et al, ASCO 2007] using either a 37.5 or a 50 mg daily dose in a 4 weeks on, 2 weeks off regimen. The objective of this trial was to demonstrate antitumor activity of continuous SU treatment in patients (pts) with HCC. Methods: Key eligibility criteria included unresectable or metastatic HCC, no prior systemic anticancer treatment, measurable disease and Child- Pugh A or B liver dysfunction. Pts received 37.5 mg SU daily until progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary endpoint was progression free survival at 12 weeks (PFS12) defined as 'success' if the patient was alive and without tumor progression assessed by 12 weeks (±7 days) after registration. A PFS12 of _20% was considered uninteresting and promising if _40%. Using the Simon-two minimax stage design with 90% power and 5% significance the sample size was 45 pts. Secondary endpoints included safety assessments, measurement of serum cobalamin levels and tumor density. Results: From September 2007 to August 2008 45 pts, mostly male (87%), were enrolled in 10 centers. Median age was 63 years, 89% had Child-Pugh A and 47% had distant metastases. Median largest lesion diameter was 84mm (range: 18-280) and 18% had prior TACE. Reasons for stopping therapy were: PD 60%, symptomatic deterioration 16%, toxicity 11%, death 2% (due to tumor), and other reasons 4%; 7% remain on therapy. PFS12 was rated as success in 15 pts (33%) (95% CI: 20%, 49%) and failure in 27 (60%); 3 were not evaluable (due to refusal). Over the whole trial period 1 CR and 40% SD as best response were achieved. Median PFS, duration of disease stabilization, TTP and OS were 2.8, 3.2, 2.8 and 9.3 months, respectively. Grade 3 and 4 adverse events were infrequent and all deaths due to the tumor. Conclusions: Continuous SU treatment with 37.5 mg/d daily is feasible and demonstrates moderate activity in pts with advanced HCC and mild to moderately impaired liver dysfunction. Under this trial design the therapy is considered promising (>13 PFS12 successes).

Induction of experimental endocarditis by continuous low-grade bacteremia mimicking spontaneous bacteremia in humans.

Transient high-grade bacteremia following invasive procedures carries a risk of infective endocarditis (IE). This is supported by experimental endocarditis. On the other hand, case-control studies showed that IE could be caused by cumulative exposure to low-grade bacteremia occurring during daily activities. However, no experimental demonstration of this latter possibility exists. This study investigated the infectivity in animals of continuous low-grade bacteremia compared to that of brief high-grade bacteremia. Rats with aortic vegetations were inoculated with Streptococcus intermedius, Streptococcus gordonii or Staphylococcus aureus (strains Newman and P8). Animals were challenged with 10(3) to 10(6) CFU. Identical bacterial numbers were given by bolus (1 ml in 1 min) or continuous infusion (0.0017 ml/min over 10 h). Bacteremia was 50 to 1,000 times greater after bolus than during continuous inoculation. Streptococcal bolus inoculation of 10(5) CFU infected 63 to 100% vegetations compared to 30 to 71% infection after continuous infusion (P > 0.05). When increasing the inoculum to 10(6) CFU, bolus inoculation infected 100% vegetations and continuous infusion 70 to 100% (P > 0.05). S. aureus bolus injection of 10(3) CFU infected 46 to 57% valves. This was similar to the 53 to 57% infection rates produced by continuous infusion (P > 0.05). Inoculation of 10(4) CFU of S. aureus infected 80 to 100% vegetations after bolus and 60 to 75% after continuous infusion (P > 0.05). These results show that high-level bacteremia is not required to induce experimental endocarditis and support the hypothesis that cumulative exposure to low-grade bacteremia represents a genuine risk of IE in humans.

Characterization of surface functional groups present on laboratory-generated and ambient aerosol particles by means of heterogeneous titration reactions

A Knudsen flow reactor has been used to quantify surface functional groups on aerosols collected in the field. This technique is based on a heterogeneous titration reaction between a probe gas and a specific functional group on the particle surface. In the first part of this work, the reactivity of different probe gases on laboratory-generated aerosols (limonene SOA, Pb(NO3)2, Cd(NO3)2) and diesel reference soot (SRM 2975) has been studied. Five probe gases have been selected for the quantitative determination of important functional groups: N(CH3)3 (for the titration of acidic sites), NH2OH (for carbonyl functions), CF3COOH and HCl (for basic sites of different strength), and O3 (for oxidizable groups). The second part describes a field campaign that has been undertaken in several bus depots in Switzerland, where ambient fine and ultrafine particles were collected on suitable filters and quantitatively investigated using the Knudsen flow reactor. Results point to important differences in the surface reactivity of ambient particles, depending on the sampling site and season. The particle surface appears to be multi-functional, with the simultaneous presence of antagonistic functional groups which do not undergo internal chemical reactions, such as acid-base neutralization. Results also indicate that the surface of ambient particles was characterized by a high density of carbonyl functions (reactivity towards NH2OH probe in the range 0.26-6 formal molecular monolayers) and a low density of acidic sites (reactivity towards N(CH3)3 probe in the range 0.01-0.20 formal molecular monolayer). Kinetic parameters point to fast redox reactions (uptake coefficient ?0>10-3 for O3 probe) and slow acid-base reactions (?0<10-4 for N(CH3)3 probe) on the particle surface. [Authors]