Three Essays on the Formation and Impact of Economic Policy

Introduction In my thesis I argue that economic policy is all about economics and politics. Consequently, analysing and understanding economic policy ideally has at least two parts. The economics part, which is centered around the expected impact of a specific policy on the real economy both in terms of efficiency and equity. The insights of this part point into which direction the fine-tuning of economic policies should go. However, fine-tuning of economic policies will be most likely subject to political constraints. That is why, in the politics part, a much better understanding can be gained by taking into account how the incentives of politicians and special interest groups as well as the role played by different institutional features affect the formation of economic policies. The first part and chapter of my thesis concentrates on the efficiency-related impact of economic policies: how does corporate income taxation in general, and corporate income tax progressivity in specific, affect the creation of new firms? Reduced progressivity and flat-rate taxes are in vogue. By 2009, 22 countries are operating flat-rate income tax systems, as do 7 US states and 14 Swiss cantons (for corporate income only). Tax reform proposals in the spirit of the "flat tax" model typically aim to reduce three parameters: the average tax burden, the progressivity of the tax schedule, and the complexity of the tax code. In joint work, Marius Brülhart and I explore the implications of changes in these three parameters on entrepreneurial activity, measured by counts of firm births in a panel of Swiss municipalities. Our results show that lower average tax rates and reduced complexity of the tax code promote firm births. Controlling for these effects, reduced progressivity inhibits firm births. Our reading of these results is that tax progressivity has an insurance effect that facilitates entrepreneurial risk taking. The positive effects of lower tax levels and reduced complexity are estimated to be significantly stronger than the negative effect of reduced progressivity. To the extent that firm births reflect desirable entrepreneurial dynamism, it is not the flattening of tax schedules that is key to successful tax reforms, but the lowering of average tax burdens and the simplification of tax codes. Flatness per se is of secondary importance and even appears to be detrimental to firm births. The second part of my thesis, which corresponds to the second and third chapter, concentrates on how economic policies are formed. By the nature of the analysis, these two chapters draw on a broader literature than the first chapter. Both economists and political scientists have done extensive research on how economic policies are formed. Thereby, researchers in both disciplines have recognised the importance of special interest groups trying to influence policy-making through various channels. In general, economists base their analysis on a formal and microeconomically founded approach, while abstracting from institutional details. In contrast, political scientists' frameworks are generally richer in terms of institutional features but lack the theoretical rigour of economists' approaches. I start from the economist's point of view. However, I try to borrow as much as possible from the findings of political science to gain a better understanding of how economic policies are formed in reality. In the second chapter, I take a theoretical approach and focus on the institutional policy framework to explore how interactions between different political institutions affect the outcome of trade policy in presence of special interest groups' lobbying. Standard political economy theory treats the government as a single institutional actor which sets tariffs by trading off social welfare against contributions from special interest groups seeking industry-specific protection from imports. However, these models lack important (institutional) features of reality. That is why, in my model, I split up the government into a legislative and executive branch which can both be lobbied by special interest groups. Furthermore, the legislative has the option to delegate its trade policy authority to the executive. I allow the executive to compensate the legislative in exchange for delegation. Despite ample anecdotal evidence, bargaining over delegation of trade policy authority has not yet been formally modelled in the literature. I show that delegation has an impact on policy formation in that it leads to lower equilibrium tariffs compared to a standard model without delegation. I also show that delegation will only take place if the lobby is not strong enough to prevent it. Furthermore, the option to delegate increases the bargaining power of the legislative at the expense of the lobbies. Therefore, the findings of this model can shed a light on why the U.S. Congress often practices delegation to the executive. In the final chapter of my thesis, my coauthor, Antonio Fidalgo, and I take a narrower approach and focus on the individual politician level of policy-making to explore how connections to private firms and networks within parliament affect individual politicians' decision-making. Theories in the spirit of the model of the second chapter show how campaign contributions from lobbies to politicians can influence economic policies. There exists an abundant empirical literature that analyses ties between firms and politicians based on campaign contributions. However, the evidence on the impact of campaign contributions is mixed, at best. In our paper, we analyse an alternative channel of influence in the shape of personal connections between politicians and firms through board membership. We identify a direct effect of board membership on individual politicians' voting behaviour and an indirect leverage effect when politicians with board connections influence non-connected peers. We assess the importance of these two effects using a vote in the Swiss parliament on a government bailout of the national airline, Swissair, in 2001, which serves as a natural experiment. We find that both the direct effect of connections to firms and the indirect leverage effect had a strong and positive impact on the probability that a politician supported the government bailout.

Integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability: the pros and cons of reductionism

In this paper I review a series of theoretical concepts that are relevant for the integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability but that are not generally included in the curriculum of the various scientific disciplines dealing with quantitative analysis of agriculture. I first illustrate with plain narratives and concrete examples that sustainability is an extremely complex issue requiring the simultaneous consideration of several aspects, which cannot be reduced into a single indicator of performance. Following, I justify this obvious need for multi-criteria analysis with theoretical concepts dealing with the epistemological predicament of complexity, starting from classic philosophical lessons to arrive to recent developments in complex system theory, in particular Rosen´s theory of modelling relation which is essential to analyze the quality of any quantitative representation. The implications of these theoretical concepts are then illustrated with applications of multi-criteria analysis to the sustainability of agriculture. I wrap up by pointing out the crucial difference between "integrated assessment" and "integrated analysis". An integrated analysis is a set of indicators and analytical models generating an analytical output. An integrated assessment is much more than that. It is about finding an effective way to deal with three key issues: (i) legitimacy – how to handle the unavoidable existence of legitimate but contrasting points of view about different meanings given by social actors to the word "development"; (ii) pertinence – how to handle in a coherent way scientific analyses referring to different scales and dimensions; and (iii) credibility – how to handle the unavoidable existence of uncertainty and genuine ignorance, when dealing with the analysis of future scenarios.

Estudi de la reformació amb vapor de biocombustibles per a l'obtenció d'hidrogen utilitzant suports estructurats ceràmics funcionalitzats

Donada una aplicació racional en una varietat complexa, Bellon i Viallet van definit l’entropia algebraica d’aquesta aplicació i van provar que aquest valor és un invariant biracional. Un invariant biracional equivalent és el grau asimptòtic, grau dinàmic o complexitat, definit per Boukraa i Maillard. Aquesta noció és propera a la complexitat definida per Arnold. Conjecturalment, el grau asimptòtic satisfà una recurrència lineal amb coeficients enters. Aquesta conjectura ha estat provada en el cas polinòmic en el pla afí complex per Favre i Jonsson i resta oberta en per al cas projectiu global i per al cas local. L’estudi de l’arbre valoratiu de Favre i Jonsson ha resultat clau per resoldre la conjectura en el cas polinòmic en el pla afí complex. El beneficiari ha estudiat l’arbre valoratiu global de Favre i Jonsson i ha reinterpretat algunes nocions i resultats des d’un punt de vista més geomètric. Així mateix, ha estudiat la demostració de la conjectura de Bellon – Viallet en el cas polinòmic en el pla afí complex com a primer pas per trobar una demostració en el cas local i projectiu global en estudis futurs. El projecte inclou un estudi detallat de l'arbre valoratiu global des d'un punt de vista geomètric i els primers passos de la demostració de la conjectura de Bellon - Viallet en el cas polinòmic en el pla afí complex que van efectuar Favre i Jonsson.

Aspectes geomètrics i dinàmics de transformacions racionals planes

Donada una aplicació racional en una varietat complexa, Bellon i Viallet van definit l’entropia algebraica d’aquesta aplicació i van provar que aquest valor és un invariant biracional. Un invariant biracional equivalent és el grau asimptòtic, grau dinàmic o complexitat, definit per Boukraa i Maillard. Aquesta noció és propera a la complexitat definida per Arnold. Conjecturalment, el grau asimptòtic satisfà una recurrència lineal amb coeficients enters. Aquesta conjectura ha estat provada en el cas polinòmic en el pla afí complex per Favre i Jonsson i resta oberta en per al cas projectiu global i per al cas local. L’estudi de l’arbre valoratiu de Favre i Jonsson ha resultat clau per resoldre la conjectura en el cas polinòmic en el pla afí complex. El beneficiari ha estudiat l’arbre valoratiu global de Favre i Jonsson i ha reinterpretat algunes nocions i resultats des d’un punt de vista més geomètric. Així mateix, ha estudiat la demostració de la conjectura de Bellon – Viallet en el cas polinòmic en el pla afí complex com a primer pas per trobar una demostració en el cas local i projectiu global en estudis futurs. El projecte inclou un estudi detallat de l'arbre valoratiu global des d'un punt de vista geomètric i els primers passos de la demostració de la conjectura de Bellon - Viallet en el cas polinòmic en el pla afí complex que van efectuar Favre i Jonsson.

A critical application of securitization theory: overcoming the normative dilemma of writing security

This article addresses the normative dilemma located within the application of `securitization,’ as a method of understanding the social construction of threats and security policies. Securitization as a theoretical and practical undertaking is being increasingly used by scholars and practitioners. This scholarly endeavour wishes to provide those wishing to engage with securitization with an alternative application of this theory; one which is sensitive to and self-reflective of the possible normative consequences of its employment. This article argues that discussing and analyzing securitization processes have normative implications, which is understood here to be the negative securitization of a referent. The negative securitization of a referent is asserted to be carried out through the unchallenged analysis of securitization processes which have emerged through relations of exclusion and power. It then offers a critical understanding and application of securitization studies as a way of overcoming the identified normative dilemma. First, it examines how the Copenhagen School’s formation of securitization theory gives rise to a normative dilemma, which is situated in the performative and symbolic power of security as a political invocation and theoretical concept. Second, it evaluates previous attempts to overcome the normative dilemma of securitization studies, outlining the obstacles that each individual proposal faces. Third, this article argues that the normative dilemma of applying securitization can be avoided by firstly, deconstructing the institutional power of security actors and dominant security subjectivities and secondly, by addressing countering or alternative approaches to security and incorporating different security subjectivities. Examples of the securitization of international terrorism and immigration are prominent throughout.

GWAS of human bitter taste perception identifies new loci and reveals additional complexity of bitter taste genetics.

Human perception of bitterness displays pronounced interindividual variation. This phenotypic variation is mirrored by equally pronounced genetic variation in the family of bitter taste receptor genes. To better understand the effects of common genetic variations on human bitter taste perception, we conducted a genome-wide association study on a discovery panel of 504 subjects and a validation panel of 104 subjects from the general population of São Paulo in Brazil. Correction for general taste-sensitivity allowed us to identify a SNP in the cluster of bitter taste receptors on chr12 (10.88- 11.24 Mb, build 36.1) significantly associated (best SNP: rs2708377, P = 5.31 × 10(-13), r(2) = 8.9%, β = -0.12, s.e. = 0.016) with the perceived bitterness of caffeine. This association overlaps with-but is statistically distinct from-the previously identified SNP rs10772420 influencing the perception of quinine bitterness that falls in the same bitter taste cluster. We replicated this association to quinine perception (P = 4.97 × 10(-37), r(2) = 23.2%, β = 0.25, s.e. = 0.020) and additionally found the effect of this genetic locus to be concentration specific with a strong impact on the perception of low, but no impact on the perception of high concentrations of quinine. Our study, thus, furthers our understanding of the complex genetic architecture of bitter taste perception.

Analyzing complexity in foreign language monologic oral production in a CLIL context

The study tested three analytic tools applied in SLA research (T-unit, AS-unit and Idea-unit) against FL learner monologic oral data. The objective was to analyse their effectiveness for the assessment of complexity of learners' academic production in English. The data were learners' individual productions gathered during the implementation of a CLIL teaching sequence on Natural Sciences in a Catalan state secondary school. The analysis showed that only AS-unit was easily applicable and highly effective in segmenting the data and taking complexity measures

Theory of mind tasks and executive functions: A systematic review of group studies in neurology.

A growing number of studies have been addressing the relationship between theory of mind (TOM) and executive functions (EF) in patients with acquired neurological pathology. In order to provide a global overview on the main findings, we conducted a systematic review on group studies where we aimed to (1) evaluate the patterns of impaired and preserved abilities of both TOM and EF in groups of patients with acquired neurological pathology and (2) investigate the existence of particular relations between different EF domains and TOM tasks. The search was conducted in Pubmed/Medline. A total of 24 articles met the inclusion criteria. We considered for analysis classical clinically accepted TOM tasks (first- and second-order false belief stories, the Faux Pas test, Happe's stories, the Mind in the Eyes task, and Cartoon's tasks) and EF domains (updating, shifting, inhibition, and access). The review suggests that (1) EF and TOM appear tightly associated. However, the few dissociations observed suggest they cannot be reduced to a single function; (2) no executive subprocess could be specifically associated with TOM performances; (3) the first-order false belief task and the Happe's story task seem to be less sensitive to neurological pathologies and less associated to EF. Even though the analysis of the reviewed studies demonstrates a close relationship between TOM and EF in patients with acquired neurological pathology, the nature of this relationship must be further investigated. Studies investigating ecological consequences of TOM and EF deficits, and intervention researches may bring further contributions to this question.

What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence-environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence-environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building 'under fit' models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence-environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building 'over fit' models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species ranges.

Index theory for basic Dirac operators on Riemannian foliations

In this paper we prove a formula for the analytic index of a basic Dirac-type operator on a Riemannian foliation, solving a problem that has been open for many years. We also consider more general indices given by twisting the basic Dirac operator by a representation of the orthogonal group. The formula is a sum of integrals over blowups of the strata of the foliation and also involves eta invariants of associated elliptic operators. As a special case, a Gauss-Bonnet formula for the basic Euler characteristic is obtained using two independent proofs.

Vintage capital growth theory: three breakthroughs

Vintage capital growth models have been at the heart of growth theory in the 60s. This research line collapsed in the late 60s with the so-called embodiment controversy and the technical sophisitication of the vintage models. This paper analyzes the astonishing revival of this literature in the 90s. In particular, it outlines three methodological breakthroughs explaining this resurgence: a growth accounting revolution, taking advantage of the availability of new time series, an optimal control revolution allowing to safely study vintage capital optimal growth models, and a vintage human capital revolution, along with the rise of economic demography, accounting for the vintage structure of human capital similarly to physical capital age structuring. The related literature is surveyed.

The longitudinal association between social functioning and theory of mind in first episode psychosis

Introduction. There is some cross-sectional evidence that theory of mind ability is associated with social functioning in those with psychosis but the direction of this relationship is unknown. This study investigates the longitudinal association between both theory of mind and psychotic symptoms and social functioning outcome in first-episode psychosis. Methods. Fifty-four people with first-episode psychosis were followed up at 6 and 12 months. Random effects regression models were used to estimate the stability of theory of mind over time and the association between baseline theory of mind and psychotic symptoms and social functioning outcome. Results. Neither baseline theory of mind ability (regression coefficients: Hinting test 1.07 95% CI 0.74, 2.88; Visual Cartoon test 2.91 95% CI 7.32, 1.51) nor baseline symptoms (regression coefficients: positive symptoms 0.04 95% CI 1.24, 1.16; selected negative symptoms 0.15 95% CI 2.63, 2.32) were associated with social functioning outcome. There was evidence that theory of mind ability was stable over time, (regression coefficients: Hinting test 5.92 95% CI 6.66, 8.92; Visual Cartoon test score 0.13 95% CI 0.17, 0.44). Conclusions. Neither baseline theory of mind ability nor psychotic symptoms are associated with social functioning outcome. Further longitudinal work is needed to understand the origin of social functioning deficits in psychosis.