Actionable climate knowledge: From analysis to synthesis

The traditional reductionist approach to science has a tendency to create 'islands of knowledge in a sea of ignorance', with a much stronger focus on analysis of scientific inputs rather than synthesis of socially relevant outcomes. This might be the principal reason why intended end users of climate information generally fail to embrace what the climate science community has to offer. The translation of climate information into real-life action requires 3 essential components: salience (the perceived relevance of the information), credibility (the perceived technical quality of the information) and legitimacy (the perceived objectivity of the process by which the information is shared). We explore each of these components using 3 case studies focused on dryland cropping in Australia, India and Brazil. In regards to 'salience' we discuss the challenge for climate science to be 'policy-relevant', using Australian drought policy as an example. In a village in southern India 'credibility' was gained through engagement between scientists and risk managers with the aim of building social capital, achieved only at high cost to science institutions. Finally, in Brazil we found that 'legitimacy' is a fragile, yet renewable resource that needs to be part of the package for successful climate applications; legitimacy can be easily eroded but is difficult to recover. We conclude that climate risk management requires holistic solutions derived from cross-disciplinary and participatory, user-oriented research. Approaches that combine climate, agroecological and socioeconomic models provide the scientific capabilities for establishment of 'borderless' institutions without disciplinary constraints. Such institutions could provide the necessary support and flexibility to deliver the social benefits of climate science across diverse contexts. Our case studies show that this type of solution is already being applied, and suggest that the climate science community attempt to address existing institutional constraints, which still impede climate risk management.

Genetic approaches to resistance to Fusarium and Bipolaris in wheat and barley

This project provided information on the genetics of crown rot (CR) resistance to help breeding work, located new parent lines in wheat and barley, and provided an insight into yield losses that occur in commercial varieties with increasing levels of CR for risk management. Genetic experiments found some highly resistant lines were poor parents, and CR resistance was complex. Best parent lines and many specific crosses were identified for further work. New potential parent lines were identified in wheat and barley, some now used in breeding programs. Yield loss can be severe even with low levels of CR when combined with drought stress. CR can reduce yield even with a wet finish.

The Distribution of Henipaviruses in Southeast Asia and Australasia: Is Wallace's Line a Barrier to Nipah Virus?

Nipah virus (NiV) (Genus Henipavirus) is a recently emerged zoonotic virus that causes severe disease in humans and has been found in bats of the genus Pteropus. Whilst NiV has not been detected in Australia, evidence for NiV-infection has been found in pteropid bats in some of Australia's closest neighbours. The aim of this study was to determine the occurrence of henipaviruses in fruit bat (Family Pteropodidae) populations to the north of Australia. In particular we tested the hypothesis that Nipah virus is restricted to west of Wallace's Line. Fruit bats from Australia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Indonesia were tested for the presence of antibodies to Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus, and tested for the presence of HeV, NiV or henipavirus RNA by PCR. Evidence was found for the presence of Nipah virus in both Pteropus vampyrus and Rousettus amplexicaudatus populations from East Timor. Serology and PCR also suggested the presence of a henipavirus that was neither HeV nor NiV in Pteropus alecto and Acerodon celebensis. The results demonstrate the presence of NiV in the fruit bat populations on the eastern side of Wallace's Line and within 500 km of Australia. They indicate the presence of non-NiV, non-HeV henipaviruses in fruit bat populations of Sulawesi and Sumba and possibly in Papua New Guinea. It appears that NiV is present where P. vampyrus occurs, such as in the fruit bat populations of Timor, but where this bat species is absent other henipaviruses may be present, as on Sulawesi and Sumba. Evidence was obtained for the presence henipaviruses in the non-Pteropid species R. amplexicaudatus and in A. celebensis. The findings of this work fill some gaps in knowledge in geographical and species distribution of henipaviruses in Australasia which will contribute to planning of risk management and surveillance activities.

Book Review: "Safe Design and Construction of Machinery – Regulation, Practice and Performance [First edition]"

With Safe Design and Construction of Machinery, the author presents the results of empirical studies into this significant aspect of safety science in a very readable, well-structured format. The book contains 436 references, 17 tables, one figure and a comprehensive index. Liz Bluff addresses a complex and important, but often neglected domain in OHS – the safety of machinery – in a holistic and profound, yet evidence based analysis; with many applied cases from her studies, which make the book accessible and a pleasant lecture. Although research that led to this remarkable publication might have been primarily focused on the regulators, this book can be highly recommended to all OHS academics and practitioners. It provides an important contribution to the body of knowledge in OHS, and establishes one of the few Australian in-depth insights into the significance of machinery producers, rather than machinery users in the wider framework of risk management. The author bases this fresh perspective on the well-established European Machinery Safety guidelines, and grounds her mixed-methods research predominantly in qualitative analysis of motivation and knowledge, which eventually leads to specific safety outcomes. It should be noted that both European and Australian legal aspects are investigated and considered, as both equally apply to many machinery exporters. A detailed description of the research design and methods can be found in an appendix. Overall, the unique combination of quantitative safety performance data and qualitative analysis of safety behaviours form a valuable addition to the understanding of machinery safety. The author must be congratulated on making these complex relationships transparent to the reader through her meticulous inquiry.

Performance-based contracting for roads – Experiences of Australia and Indonesia

Many countries over the last decade, have used performance-based contracting (PBC) to manage and maintain roads. The implementation of PBC provides additional benefits for the government/public such as cost savings and improved conditions of contracted road assets. In Australia, PBC is already being implemented on all categories of roads: national, state, urban and rural. Australian PBC arrangement is designed to turn over control and responsibility for roadway system maintenance, rehabilitation, and capital improvement projects to private contractors. Contractors’ responsibilities include determination of treatment types, the design, programming and the undertaking of works needed to maintain road networks at predetermined performance levels. Indonesia initiated two PBC pilot projects in 2011, the Pantura Section Demak-Trengguli (7.68 kilometers) in Central Java Province and Section Ciasem-Pamanukan (18.5 kilometers) in West Java Province. Both sections are categorized as national roads. The contract duration for both of these projects is four years. To facilitate a possible way forward, it is proposed to conduct a study to understand Australia's experiences of advancing from pilot projects to nation-wide programs using PBC. The study focuses on the scope of contracts, bidding processes, risk allocation, and key drivers, using relevant PBC case studies from Australia. Recommendations for future PBC deployment nation-wide should be based on more research associated with risk allocation. This will include investigation of standard conditions of contract. Implications of the contract clauses for the risk management strategy to be adopted by contractors. Based on the nature of risks, some are best managed by the project owner. It is very important that all parties involved to be open to the new rules of contract and to convince themselves about the potential increased benefits of the use of PBC. The most recent states of challenging issues were explored and described.

Spatiotemporal aspects of Hendra Virus infection in Pteropid Bats (Flying-Foxes) in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus (HeV) causes highly lethal disease in horses and humans in the eastern Australian states of Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW), with multiple equine cases now reported on an annual basis. Infection and excretion dynamics in pteropid bats (flying-foxes), the recognised natural reservoir, are incompletely understood. We sought to identify key spatial and temporal factors associated with excretion in flying-foxes over a 2300 km latitudinal gradient from northern QLD to southern NSW which encompassed all known equine case locations. The aim was to strengthen knowledge of Hendra virus ecology in flying-foxes to improve spillover risk prediction and exposure risk mitigation strategies, and thus better protect horses and humans. Monthly pooled urine samples were collected from under roosting flying-foxes over a three-year period and screened for HeV RNA by quantitative RT-PCR. A generalised linear model was employed to investigate spatiotemporal associations with HeV detection in 13,968 samples from 27 roosts. There was a non-linear relationship between mean HeV excretion prevalence and five latitudinal regions, with excretion moderate in northern and central QLD, highest in southern QLD/northern NSW, moderate in central NSW, and negligible in southern NSW. Highest HeV positivity occurred where black or spectacled flying-foxes were present; nil or very low positivity rates occurred in exclusive grey-headed flying-fox roosts. Similarly, little red flying-foxes are evidently not a significant source of virus, as their periodic extreme increase in numbers at some roosts was not associated with any concurrent increase in HeV detection. There was a consistent, strong winter seasonality to excretion in the southern QLD/northern NSW and central NSW regions. This new information allows risk management strategies to be refined and targeted, mindful of the potential for spatial risk profiles to shift over time with changes in flying-fox species distribution.

Elements of Volatility at High Frequency

Volatility is central in options pricing and risk management. It reflects the uncertainty of investors and the inherent instability of the economy. Time series methods are among the most widely applied scientific methods to analyze and predict volatility. Very frequently sampled data contain much valuable information about the different elements of volatility and may ultimately reveal the reasons for time varying volatility. The use of such ultra-high-frequency data is common to all three essays of the dissertation. The dissertation belongs to the field of financial econometrics. The first essay uses wavelet methods to study the time-varying behavior of scaling laws and long-memory in the five-minute volatility series of Nokia on the Helsinki Stock Exchange around the burst of the IT-bubble. The essay is motivated by earlier findings which suggest that different scaling laws may apply to intraday time-scales and to larger time-scales, implying that the so-called annualized volatility depends on the data sampling frequency. The empirical results confirm the appearance of time varying long-memory and different scaling laws that, for a significant part, can be attributed to investor irrationality and to an intraday volatility periodicity called the New York effect. The findings have potentially important consequences for options pricing and risk management that commonly assume constant memory and scaling. The second essay investigates modelling the duration between trades in stock markets. Durations convoy information about investor intentions and provide an alternative view at volatility. Generalizations of standard autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models are developed to meet needs observed in previous applications of the standard models. According to the empirical results based on data of actively traded stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and the Helsinki Stock Exchange the proposed generalization clearly outperforms the standard models and also performs well in comparison to another recently proposed alternative to the standard models. The distribution used to derive the generalization may also prove valuable in other areas of risk management. The third essay studies empirically the effect of decimalization on volatility and market microstructure noise. Decimalization refers to the change from fractional pricing to decimal pricing and it was carried out on the New York Stock Exchange in January, 2001. The methods used here are more accurate than in the earlier studies and put more weight on market microstructure. The main result is that decimalization decreased observed volatility by reducing noise variance especially for the highly active stocks. The results help risk management and market mechanism designing.

Directors and officers insurance – Recent critical issues in Australia and New Zealand

Directors and Officers Liability Insurance (“D&O insurance”) has grown and evolved rapidly over the past 80 years to assume an important position in most corporations’ corporate governance and risk management strategies. This article focuses upon certain topical matters of particular concern to directors and officers including the availability of defence costs where a D&O policy is subject to a statutory charge; the commercial desirability of stand-alone “A-side” coverage, being the cover provided directly to directors and officers for loss resulting from claims made against them for wrongful acts; the impact of fraud and/or dishonesty upon D&O cover; and disclosure of the nature and extent of D&O cover to the directors and officers themselves and to third parties – in the latter case such access frequently being necessary to determine the economic viability of pursuing a proposed action against a company and its directors and officers.

Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

Social determinants of health and diabetic foot disease

Background Diabetic foot disease (DFD) is the leading cause of hospitalisation and lower extremity amputation (LEA) in people with diabetes. Many studies have established the relationship between DFD and clinical risk factors, such as peripheral neuropathy and peripheral arterial disease. Other studies have identified the relationship between diabetes and non-clinical risk factors termed social determinants of health (SDoH), such as socioeconomic status. However, it appears very few studies have investigated the relationship between DFD and SDoH. This paper aims to review the existing literature investigating the relationship between DFD and the SDoH factors socioeconomic status (SES), race and geographical remoteness (remoteness). Process Electronic databases (MEDLINE, CINAHL, and PubMed) were searched for studies reporting SES, race (including Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander in Australia) and remoteness and their relationship to DFD and LEA. Exclusion criteria were studies conducted in developing countries and studies published prior to 2000. Findings Forty-eight studies met the inclusion criteria and were reviewed; 10 in Australia. Overall, 28 (58%) studies investigated LEA, 10 (21%) DFD, and 10 (21%) DFD and LEA as the DFD-related outcome. Thirty-six (75%) studies investigated the SDoH risk factor of race, 22 (46%) SES, and 20 (42%) remoteness. SES, race and remoteness were found to be individually associated with LEA and DFD in the majority of studies. Only four studies investigated interactions between SES, race and remoteness and DFD with contrasting findings. All four studies used only LEA as their investigated outcome. No Australian studies investigate the interaction of all three SDoH risk factors on DFD outcomes. Conclusions The SDoH risk factors of SES, race and GR appear to be individually associated with DFD. However, only few studies investigated the interaction of these three major SDoH risk factors and DFD outcomes with contrasting results. There is a clear gap in this area of DFD research and particularly in Australia. Until urgent future research is performed, current practice and policy does not adequately take into consideration the implication of SDoH on DFD.

Genotype-Phenotype Relationships in Long QT Syndrome: Role of Mental Stress, Adrenergic Activity and a Common KCNH2 Polymorphism

Long QT syndrome is a congenital or acquired arrhythmic disorder which manifests as a prolonged QT-interval on the electrocardiogram and as a tendency to develop ventricular arrhythmias which can lead to sudden death. Arrhythmias often occur during intense exercise and/or emotional stress. The two most common subtypes of LQTS are LQT1, caused by mutations in the KCNQ1 gene and LQT2, caused by mutations in the KCNH2 gene. LQT1 and LQT2 patients exhibit arrhythmias in different types of situations: in LQT1 the trigger is usually vigorous exercise whereas in LQT2 arrhythmia results from the patient being startled from rest. It is not clear why trigger factors and clinical outcome differ from each other in the different LQTS subtypes. It is possible that stress hormones such as catecholamines may show different effects depending on the exact nature of the genetic defect, or sensitivity to catecholamines varies from subject to subject. Furthermore, it is possible that subtle genetic variants of putative modifier genes, including those coding for ion channels and hormone receptors, play a role as determinants of individual sensitivity to life-threatening arrhythmias. The present study was designed to identify some of these risk modifiers. It was found that LQT1 and LQT2 patients show an abnormal QT-adaptation to both mental and physical stress. Furthermore, as studied with epinephrine infusion experiments while the heart was paced and action potentials were measured from the right ventricular septum, LQT1 patients showed repolarization abnormalities which were related to their propensity to develop arrhythmia during intense, prolonged sympathetic tone, such as exercise. In LQT2 patients, this repolarization abnormality was noted already at rest corresponding to their arrhythmic episodes as a result of intense, sudden surges in adrenergic tone, such as fright or rage. A common KCNH2 polymorphism was found to affect KCNH2 channel function as demonstrated by in vitro experiments utilizing mammalian cells transfected with the KCNH2 potassium channel as well as QT-dynamics in vivo. Finally, the present study identified a common β-1-adrenergic receptor genotype that is related a shorter QT-interval in LQT1 patients. Also, it was discovered that compound homozygosity for two common β-adrenergic polymorphisms was related to the occurrence of symptoms in the LQT1 type of long QT syndrome. The studies demonstrate important genotype-phenotype differences between different LQTS subtypes and suggest that common modifier gene polymorphisms may affect cardiac repolarization in LQTS. It will be important in the future to prospectively study whether variant gene polymorphisms will assist in clinical risk profiling of LQTS patients.

The Pathobiology of the Saccular Cerebral Artery Aneurysm Rupture and Repair : A Clinicopathological and Experimental Approach

Backround and Purpose The often fatal (in 50-35%) subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) caused by saccular cerebral artery aneurysm (SCAA) rupture affects mainly the working aged population. The incidence of SAH is 10-11 / 100 000 in Western countries and twice as high in Finland and Japan. The estimated prevalence of SCAAs is around 2%. Many of those never rupture. Currently there are, however, no diagnostic methods to identify rupture-prone SCAAs from quiescent, (dormant) ones. Finding diagnostic markers for rupture-prone SCAAs is of primary importance since a SCAA rupture has such a sinister outcome, and all current treatment modalities are associated with morbidity and mortality. Also the therapies that prevent SCAA rupture need to be developed to as minimally invasive as possible. Although the clinical risk factors for SCAA rupture have been extensively studied and documented in large patient series, the cellular and molecular mechanisms how these risk factors lead to SCAA wall rupture remain incompletely known. Elucidation of the molecular and cellular pathobiology of the SCAA wall is needed in order to develop i) novel diagnostic tools that could identify rupture-prone SCAAs or patients at risk of SAH, and to ii) develop novel biological therapies that prevent SCAA wall rupture. Materials and Methods In this study, histological samples from unruptured and ruptured SCAAs and plasma samples from SCAA carriers were compared in order to identify structural changes, cell populations, growth factor receptors, or other molecular markers that would associate with SCAA wall rupture. In addition, experimental saccular aneurysm models and experimental models of mechanical vascular injury were used to study the cellular mechanisms of scar formation in the arterial wall, and the adaptation of the arterial wall to increased mechanical stress. Results and Interpretation Inflammation and degeneration of the SCAA wall, namely loss of mural cells and degradation of the wall matrix, were found to associate with rupture. Unruptured SCAA walls had structural resemblance with pads of myointimal hyperplasia or so called neointima that characterizes early atherosclerotic lesions, and is the repair and adaptation mechanism of the arterial wall after injury or increased mechanical stress. As in pads of myointimal hyperplasia elsewhere in the vasculature, oxidated LDL was found in the SCAA walls. Immunity against OxLDL was demonstrated in SAH patients with detection of circulating anti-oxidized LDL antibodies, which were significantly associated with the risk of rupture in patients with solitary SCAAs. Growth factor receptors associated with arterial wall remodeling and angiogenesis were more expressed in ruptured SCAA walls. In experimental saccular aneurysm models, capillary growth, arterial wall remodeling and neointima formation were found. The neointimal cells were shown to originate from the experimental aneurysm wall with minor contribution from the adjacent artery, and a negligible contribution of bone marrow-derived neointimal cells. Since loss of mural cells characterizes ruptured human SCAAs and likely impairs the adaptation and repair mechanism of ruptured or rupture-prone SCAAs, we investigated also the hypothesis that bone marrow-derived or circulating neointimal precursor cells could be used to enhance neointima formation and compensate the impaired repair capacity in ruptured SCAA walls. However, significant contribution of bone marrow cells or circulating mononuclear cells to neointima formation was not found.

Iodine Brachytherapy for Large Uveal Melanomas

Uveal melanoma is the most common primary intraocular malignancy in adults. Vision in the affected eye is threatened by both the tumor and side-effects from the treatments currently available. Poor prognosis for saving vision increases with tumor size and, consequently, enucleation has been the treatment of choice for large uveal melanomas in most centers. However, increasing evidence suggests that no survival benefit is gained (nor lost) by enucleation as compared to eye-conserving methods. The Helsinki University Eye Hospital has since 1990 offered episcleral iodine-125 plaque brachytherapy (IBT) for all patients unwilling to undergo enucleation for a large uveal melanoma. The primary aim of this study was to assess survival, local tumor recurrence and preservation of the eye and vision after IBT in a population-based series of 97 patients with uveal melanomas classified as large by the Collaborative Ocular Melanoma Study (COMS) criteria. Further aims included reporting the incidence of side-effects and assessing the role of intraocular dose distribution and clinical risk factors in their development. Finally, means to improve the current treatment were investigated by using computer models to compare existing plaques with collimating ones and by comparing the outcome of a subgroup of 54 IBT patients with very thick tumors with 33 patients with similarly-sized tumors managed with transscleral local resection (TSR) in Liverpool, United Kingdom. Kaplan-Meier estimates of all-cause and melanoma-specific survival at 5 years after IBT were 62% and 65%, respectively, and visually comparable with the survival experience of patients reported after enucleation by the COMS. Local recurrence developed in 6% of eyes and 84% of eyes were conserved at 5 years. Visual prognosis was guarded with 11% avoiding loss of 20/70 vision and 26% avoiding loss of 20/400 vision in the tumor eye at 2 years. Large tumor height and short distance from the posterior pole were independently associated with loss of vision. Using cumulative incidence analysis to account for competing risks, such as enucleation and metastatic death, the 5-year incidence of cataract after IBT was 79%, glaucoma 60%, optic neuropathy 46%, maculopathy 52%, persistent or recurring retinal detachment (RD) 25%, and vitreous hemorrhage 36%. In multivariate competing risks regression models, increasing tumor height was associated with cataract, iris neovascularization and RD. Maculopathy and optic neuropathy were associated with distance from the tumor to the respective structure. Median doses to the tumor apex, macula and optic disc were 81 Gy (range, 40-158), 79 Gy (range, 12-632), and 83 Gy (range, 10-377), respectively. Dose to the optic disc was independently associated with optic neuropathy, and both dose to the optic disc and dose to the macula predicted vision loss after IBT. Simulated treatment using collimating plaques resulted in clinically meaningful reduction in both optic disc (median reduction, 30 Gy) and macular (median reduction, 36 Gy) doses as compared to the actual treatment with standard plaques. In the subgroup of patients with uveal melanomas classified as large because of tumor height, cumulative incidence analysis revealed that while long-term preservation of 20/70 vision was rare after both IBT and TSR, preservation of 20/400 vision was better after TSR (32% vs. 5% at 5 years). In multivariate logistic regression models, TSR was independently associated with better preservation of 20/400 vision (OR 0.03 at 2 years, P=0.005) No cases of secondary glaucoma were observed after TSR and optic neuropathy was rare. However, local tumor recurrence was more common after TSR than it was after IBT (Cumulative incidence 41% vs. 7% at 5 years, respectively). In terms of survival, IBT seems to be a safe alternative to enucleation in managing large uveal melanomas. Local tumor control is no worse than with medium-sized tumors and the chances of avoiding secondary enucleation are good. Unfortunately, side-effects from radiotherapy are frequent, especially in thick tumors, and long-term prognosis of saving vision is consequently guarded. Some complications can be limited by using collimating plaques and by managing uveal melanomas that are large because of tumor height with TSR instead of IBT. However, the patient must be willing to accept a substantial risk of local tumor recurrence after TSR and it is best suited for cases in which the preservation of vision in the tumor eye is critical.

Sport scandal and sponsorship decisions: Team identification matters

We conducted an experiment to investigate the impact of sport scandal on consumer attitudes toward a range of sport stakeholders. We examined the effects of fans’ social identity (fan of scandalized team vs. fan of rival team), scandal severity (single perpetrator vs. multiple perpetrators) and the sponsor brand’s response to the scandal (sponsorship retention vs. termination) on consumers’ attitudes toward the implicated team, the scandal perpetrators, the sport, and sponsor brand. We find evidence of differential reactions to scandal reflecting social identity, such that fans support their own team despite increased scandal severity but negatively judge a rival team’s transgressions. Results suggest that where fans are concerned, sponsors may be better served to continue with a sponsorship following scandal than to terminate, even for some forms of severe scandal. However, termination may receive more positive evaluation from rival team fans; hence continuation of sponsorship needs to accompany a tempered approach.

Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.