Counting Crime: an explanation of falling crime rates

The current crime decrease is defying traditional criminological theories such as those espoused by Bonger (1916) who researched the relationship between crime and economic conditions and stated that when unemployment rises so does crime. In both the USA and the UK crime has dropped dramatically while unemployment has risen. Both the USA and the UK have been in a deep recession since 2008 but the crime rate has decreased dramatically in both countries. Over the past 20 years it has halved in England and Wales. So how do we explain this phenomenon? Crime is down across the West but more so in Britain (see Figure 1). In England and Wales crime has decreased by 8% in a single year (2013). Vandalism is down by 14% and burglaries and vehicle crime by 11%. The murder rate in the UK is at its lowest since 1978; in 2013, 540 people were killed. Some less serious offences are vanishing too; antisocial behaviour has fallen from just under 4million incidents in 2007-08 to 2.4million. (The Economist 20/4/13). According to the most recent annual results from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), crime is at its lowest level since the survey began in 1981; the most recent annual figures from the survey, Latest figures from the CSEW show there were an estimated 7.3 million incidents of crime against households and resident adults (aged 16 and over) in England and Wales for the year ending March 2014. This represents a 14% decrease compared with the previous year’s survey, and is the lowest estimate since the survey began in 1981.

Foreclosure Counseling with Latino Households: Policy Assumptions in a Changing Demographic Landscape

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Factibilidad de relanzamiento de la revista de manualidades Costureando

Este es un trabajo de carácter académico que busca identificar la viabilidad del relanzamiento de la revista de manualidades “Costureando”, nacida en la ciudad de Medellín y enfocada a un público específico: mujeres de estratos 4, 5 y 6 de Colombia, amantes a las manualidades y a las actividades de sano entretenimiento. En este documento se presenta el producto mencionado anteriormente y sobre él se hace un análisis enfocado a entender su viabilidad de venta en el mercado actual. Este análisis se logra a través del planteamiento de unos objetivos específicos que orientan la recolección de información, para ser respondidos a través de unas conclusiones y recomendaciones finales; que nacen de los resultados de investigaciones en fuentes secundarias, observaciones en puntos de venta, encuestas a una muestra poblacional y entrevistas con expertos.

Essays on Information Frictions, Prices and Unemployment

I investigate the effects of information frictions in price setting decisions. I show that firms' output prices and wages are less sensitive to aggregate economic conditions when firms and workers cannot perfectly understand (or know) the aggregate state of the economy. Prices and wages respond with a lag to aggregate innovations because agents learn slowly about those changes, and this delayed adjustment in prices makes output and unemployment more sensitive to aggregate shocks. In the first chapter of this dissertation, I show that workers' noisy information about the state of the economy help us to explain why real wages are sluggish. In the context of a search and matching model, wages do not immediately respond to a positive aggregate shock because workers do not (yet) have enough information to demand higher wages. This increases firms' incentives to post more vacancies, and it makes unemployment volatile and sensitive to aggregate shocks. This mechanism is robust to two major criticisms of existing theories of sluggish wages and volatile unemployment: the flexibility of wages for new hires and the cyclicality of the opportunity cost of employment. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model explains 60% of the overall unemployment volatility. Consistent with empirical evidence, the response of unemployment to TFP shocks predicted by my model is large, hump-shaped, and peaks one year after the TFP shock, while the response of the aggregate wage is weak and delayed, peaking after two years. In the second chapter of this dissertation, I study the role of information frictions and inventories in firms' price setting decisions in the context of a monetary model. In this model, intermediate goods firms accumulate output inventories, observe aggregate variables with one period lag, and observe their nominal input prices and demand at all times. Firms face idiosyncratic shocks and cannot perfectly infer the state of nature. After a contractionary nominal shock, nominal input prices go down, and firms accumulate inventories because they perceive some positive probability that the nominal price decline is due to a good productivity shock. This prevents firms' prices from decreasing and makes current profits, households' income, and aggregate demand go down. According to my model simulations, a 1% decrease in the money growth rate causes output to decline 0.17% in the first quarter and 0.38% in the second followed by a slow recovery to the steady state. Contractionary nominal shocks also have significant effects on total investment, which remains 1% below the steady state for the first 6 quarters.

Empirical studies on share issuance and repurchase decisions

Financial constraints influence corporate policies of firms, including both investment decisions and external financing policies. The relevance of this phenomenon has become more pronounced during and after the recent financial crisis in 2007/2008. In addition to raising costs of external financing, the effects of financial crisis limited the availability of external financing which had implications for employment, investment, sale of assets, and tech spending. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects of financial constraints on share issuance and repurchases decisions. Financial constraints comprise both internal constraints reflecting the demand for external financing and external financial constraints that relate to the supply of external financing. The study also examines both operating performance and stock market reactions associated with equity issuance methods. The first empirical chapter explores the simultaneous effects of financial constraints and market timing on share issuance decisions. Internal financing constraints limit firms’ ability to issue overvalued equity. On the other hand, financial crisis and low market liquidity (external financial constraints) restrict availability of equity financing and consequently increase the costs of external financing. Therefore, the study explores the extent to which internal and external financing constraints limit market timing of equity issues. This study finds that financial constraints play a significant role in whether firms time their equity issues when the shares are overvalued. The conclusion is that financially constrained firms issue overvalued equity when the external equity market or the general economic conditions are favourable. During recessionary periods, costs of external finance increase such that financially constrained firms are less likely to issue overvalued equity. Only unconstrained firms are more likely to issue overvalued equity even during crisis. Similarly, small firms that need cash flows to finance growth projects are less likely to access external equity financing during period of significant economic recessions. Moreover, constrained firms have low average stock returns compared to unconstrained firms, especially when they issue overvalued equity. The second chapter examines the operating performance and stock returns associated with equity issuance methods. Firms in the UK can issue equity through rights issues, open offers, and private placement. This study argues that alternative equity issuance methods are associated with a different level of operating performance and long-term stock returns. Firms using private placement are associated with poor operating performance. However, rights issues are found empirically to be associated with higher operating performance and less negative long-term stock returns after issuance in comparison to counterpart firms that issue private placements and open offers. Thus, rights issuing firms perform better than open offers and private placement because the favourable operating performance at the time of issuance generates subsequent positive long-run stock price response. Right issuing firms are of better quality and outperform firms that adopt open offers and private placement. In the third empirical chapter, the study explores the levered share repurchase of internally financially unconstrained firms. Unconstrained firms are expected to repurchase their shares using internal funds rather than through external borrowings. However, evidence shows that levered share repurchases are common among unconstrained firms. These firms display this repurchase behaviour when they have bond ratings or investment grade ratings that allow them to obtain cheap external debt financing. It is found that internally financially unconstrained firms borrow to finance their share repurchase when they invest more. Levered repurchase firms are associated with less positive abnormal returns than unlevered repurchase firms. For the levered repurchase sample, high investing firms are associated with more positive long-run abnormal stock returns than low investing firms. It appears the market underreact to the levered repurchase in the short-run regardless of the level of investments. These findings indicate that market reactions reflect both undervaluation and signaling hypotheses of positive information associated with share repurchase. As the firms undertake capital investments, they generate future cash flows, limit the effects of leverage on financial distress and ultimately reduce the risk of the equity capital.

Wsparcie Stanów Zjednoczonych skierowane na promowanie demokracji na Bliskim Wschodzie w latach 2003-2013 na przykładach Egiptu, Iraku i Jordanii

Wydział Nauk Politycznych i Dziennikarstwa

Génese, apogeu e declínio das fortificações calcolíticas da Extremadura

En este artículo se presenta un análisis de las condiciones de tipo socioeconómico que determinarán el origen y el desarrollo de las fortificaciones calcolíticas en la Extremadura Portuguesa, unos 2800 a.C. En la interpretación de los acontecimientos, se considera determinante la evolución interna de las propias comunidades que habitarán la región, al menos desde el neolítico final, caracterizadas por un sistema agro-pastoral de creciente complejidad y diversificación.

O impacto das telenovelas brasileiras nos luandenses

Vivemos uma era em que os distintos pontos geográficos do globo se tornaram mais próximos em virtude do estreitamento proporcionado pelo profundo avanço tecnológico dos meios de transporte, mas também pela evolução vertiginosa das novas tecnologias de comunicação que têm permitido fazer com que eventos ocorridos numa determinada região do planeta sejam vistos num outro ponto geográfico, com diferença de apenas algumas horas ou mesmo em tempo real. Graças a esse avanço tecnológico e ao consequente desenvolvimento do processo comercial de transmissão e receção de sinal de televisão por satélite e/ou por cabo, a par do veloz fluxo de informação, são também disponibilizados aos recetores conteúdos de entretenimento que refletem práticas culturais com características marcadamente identitárias, de outras sociedades. Considerando que determinadas condicionantes históricas e económicas do mundo não possibilitam um fluxo bidirecional dos referidos produtos televisivos e o facto de as empresas prestadoras destes serviços se dedicarem exclusivamente à venda de produtos, cujos conteúdos retratam práticas culturais de determinados países (em melhores condições de desenvolvimento económico e tecnológico) existe a possibilidade de se estar diante de um processo de difusão cultural e de aculturação de que são alvo os cidadãos dos países recetores dos referidos conteúdos. Este trabalho pretende efetuar uma análise do impacto das telenovelas brasileiras no comportamento dos luandenses, baseando-se numa pesquisa desenvolvida nos sete municípios da Província de Luanda. Os resultados da pesquisa revelam a presença de componentes culturais brasileiras em práticas sociais dos luandenses há várias gerações e mostram o papel transformador que as telenovelas brasileiras continuam a desempenhar nesta sociedade. A ausência nos canais de televisão locais de mensagens e imagens das representações endógenas favorece a apropriação de práticas culturais exógenas emitidas pelas produções brasileiras e a sua ressignificação no quotidiano local.

As competências interculturais no processo de integração das imigrantes brasileiras em Cascais

A presente dissertação levou-nos a recolher excertos dos inquéritos, por entrevista, aplicados a oito mulheres participantes que nos ajudaram a compreender como as competências interculturais influenciaram o processo de integração em Cascais, Portugal. Ver o/a outro/a como igual apesar da sua diversidade cultural, sabendo colocar-nos no seu lugar pode parecer simples, no entanto, passar da teoria à prática exige a desconstrução da nossa perspetiva sobre o outro/a e de nós próprios. Neste processo acabamos por compilar um conjunto de informação qualitativa, que apresenta um método psicossocial de interação empático e conciliatório com os outros/as, pessoas, seres humanos como nós, livres de terem ideias e convicções diferentes das nossas. Apresentamos uma aplicação aberta à mudança, flexível e articulante de conhecimentos, concretamente das competências interculturais em constante plasticidade evolutiva.

Desvendando a resposta dos eosinófilos, dos neutrófilos e dos monócitos nas parasitoses intestinais, na asma e na associação de ambas em crianças

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Medicina, Pós-graduação em Medicina Tropical, 2015.

Impacto de fusões e aquisições na eficiência e produtividade de operadoras de infraestruturas do mercado financeiro e sistemas de negociação

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Administração, Programa de Pós-graduação em Administração, 2016.

Caracterización nutricional mediante antropometría de los niños sanos menores de 5 años asistentes a una institución de salud en Puerto Inírida 2014

Introducción: Siendo la desnutrición infantil, un indicador trazador en el perfil de salud de una población y prioridad establecida por los objetivos de desarrollo del milenio y el plan decenal de salud pública en Colombia - PDSP en su dimensión de seguridad alimentaria y nutricional, mantiene gran prevalencia a nivel nacional a pesar de presentar subregistro en la información reportada, por ende, es prioridad la medición, notificación y tratamiento de la misma. La OMS estandarizó los parámetros de medición y el gobierno nacional los adoptó mediante la resolución 2121 de 2010. Sin embargo, para disminuir el indicador de desnutrición que al año 2015 debería estar reducido en un 50% según el PDSP, es necesario identificar el sub registro que hay en el diagnóstico de la misma. Metodología: Se realizó un estudio poblacional, descriptivo y transversal, en el cual se analizó la base de datos de los niños menores de 5 años asistentes a consulta de crecimiento y desarrollo en una institución de salud del municipio de Puerto Inírida, con el fin de realizar una caracterización nutricional basados en mediciones antropométricas y contrastándolas realizadas por los profesionales de salud con las encontradas utilizando los patrones establecidos por la OMS. La información se analizó con el Software WHO Anthro propiedad de la OMS. Resultados: Se encontró que el 33,6% de los menores de 5 años registrados presentan desnutrición crónica, el 7,6% desnutrición aguda, el 13,2% de desnutrición global y el 13,9% tiene obesidad. Al discriminarlo por edad se encontró mayor prevalencia de desnutrición crónica en ambos sexos, siendo mayor en población de sexo masculino (40,1% masculino – 27,6% femenino); al igual que al realizar la comparación por pertenencia puesto que se encuentra la misma prevalencia en desnutrición crónica (29,1% en población indígena y 29% en población no indígena). Según los estándares de la OMS, en la población estudiada 12 se identificaron 243 casos de malnutrición, mientras que en la consulta de crecimiento y desarrollo fueron diagnosticados como casos de malnutrición por los profesionales de salud solo 99. Discusión: La malnutrición es un problema estructural, por ende, se deben tener en cuenta factores tanto intrínsecos como extrínsecos de la persona. Las medidas antropométricas son sólo una manera de medir, que se debe contextualizar con el entorno y las condiciones socioeconómicas, patológicas y culturales en las que se encuentre la población. El estado nutricional de los menores asistentes a los controles de crecimiento y desarrollo de la población estudiada, se encuentra mal registrado, de la misma manera se encontró una gran prevalencia de desnutrición crónica que es un determinante en la calidad de vida. Es imperante la implementación de políticas públicas adecuadas que permitan profundizar en las causas de este flagelo y así mismo en su tratamiento.

Condicionantes económicas de Colombia y la alianza del Pacífico

La principal finalidad de este estudio, es presentar una visión actualizada y genérica respecto a las condicionantes económicas de Colombia en particular y las relacionadas con el conjunto de países que conforman la Alianza del Pacífico en general –Chile, Colombia, México y Perú. Se trata de un estudio no experimental, descriptivo-interpretativo con énfasis en la revisión de datos. Entre las conclusiones más importantes se destacan los niveles de crecimiento económico con mayor estabilidad se presentan en Chile y Perú, una dependencia comercial exterior de México hacia Estados Unidos y que en Colombia se tiene el caso de que el aumento de producción que se hace evidente, no impacta tanto como era de esperarse, en la variable empleo.

Solastalgia y conductas pro-ambientales en un conflicto socioambiental por la construcción de una hidroeléctrica

Introducción: La construcción de megaproyectos hídricos implica una reconfiguración territorial donde se ven afectadas las fuentes de agua dulce, la biodiversidad terrestre y acuática, y los asentamientos humanos que colindan con dichas construcciones. Objetivo: estimar la asociación entre las conductas proambientales con la solastalgia entre las personas que se encuentran ejerciendo un proceso de resistencia social contra la Central Hidrosogamoso en el departamento de Santander, Colombia. Metodología: se utilizó un diseño de estudio transversal en el que se entrevistaron integrantes y no integrantes de grupos ambientalistas de las zonas de influencia del proyecto. Se realizó un análisis descriptivo de las variables sociodemográficas de los dos grupos de comparación presentando frecuencias absolutas y relativas y diferencias significativas por medio de la prueba ji cuadrado, exacta de Fisher y U de Mann Whitney. Se utilizó un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple en el que la variable dependiente fue el puntaje de solastalgia y las variables independientes fueron las escalas de las conductas proambientales: altruismo, austeridad, equidad, conducta ecológica, deliberación, indignación y aprecio por lo natural, además, se ajustó por algunas variables sociodemográficas de interés. Resultados: los grupos comparados presentaron diferencias importantes en cuanto a la zona de procedencia, condiciones económicas y organización social. El incremento de 5 puntos en la escala del sentimiento de indignación incrementó 0.98 la escala de solastalgia (IC95%: 0.19; 1.78). Las personas sin pareja estable tuvieron 3.02 puntos menos de solastalgia comparadas con personas casadas o en unión libre (IC95%: -4.96; -1.44), mientras que aquellas con alto nivel educativo obtuvieron 2.02 puntos menos que las personas con primaria y bachillerato (IC95%: -3.99; -0.06). Un modelo alterno mostró que no pertenecer a un grupo ambientalista disminuye en 2.29 puntos la solastalgia, comparado con pertenecer a un grupo (IC95%: -4.31; -0.28),. Conclusión: posiblemente las motivaciones por las cuales los actores involucrados se resisten a las transformaciones territoriales ocasionadas por la construcción de las represas son más un reflejo de la condición socioeconómica que de la preocupación de los actores por el daño del medio ambiente y además, esta resistencia es un fenómeno que se limita a aquellos que están afectados directamente en el área de influencia del proyecto

Which aspects of socio-economic status are related to health in mid-aged and older women?

A population-based study was conducted to validate gender- and age-specific indexes of socio-economic status (SES) and to investigate the associations between these indexes and a range of health outcomes in 2 age cohorts of women. Data from 11,637 women aged 45 to 50 and 9,5 10 women aged 70 to 75 were analyzed. Confirmatory factor analysis produced four domains of SES among the mid-aged cohort (employment, family unit, education, and migration) and four domains among the older cohort (family unit, income, education, and migration). Overall, the results supported the factor structures derived from another population-based study (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1995), reinforcing the argument that SES domains differ across age groups. In general, the findings also supported the hypotheses that women with low SES would have poorer health outcomes than higher SES women, and that the magnitude of these effects would differ according to the specific SES domain and by age group, with fewer and smaller differences observed among older women. The main exception was that in the older cohort, the education domain was significantly associated with specific health conditions. Results suggest that relations between SES and health are highly complex and vary by age, SES domain, and the health outcome under study.