910 resultados para Prediction method


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Objective: Although suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, clinicians and researchers lack a data-driven method to assess the risk of suicide attempts. This study reports the results of an analysis of a large cross-national epidemiologic survey database that estimates the 12-month prevalence of suicidal behaviors, identifies risk factors for suicide attempts, and combines these factors to create a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts separately for developed and developing countries. Method: Data come from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys (conducted 2001-2007), in which 108,705 adults from 21 countries were interviewed using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. The survey assessed suicidal behaviors and potential risk factors across multiple domains, including socio-demographic characteristics, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, DSM-IV disorders, and history of suicidal behavior. Results: Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts are 2.0%, 0.6%, and 0.3%, respectively, for developed countries and 2.1%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, respectively, for developing countries. Risk factors for suicidal behaviors in both developed and developing countries include female sex, younger age, lower education and income, unmarried status, unemployment, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, and presence of diverse 12-month DSM-IV mental disorders. Combining risk factors from multiple domains produced risk indices that accurately predicted 12-month suicide attempts in both developed and developing countries (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74-0.80). Conclusions: Suicidal behaviors occur at similar rates in both developed and developing countries. Risk indices assessing multiple domains can predict suicide attempts with fairly good accuracy and may be useful in aiding clinicians in the prediction of these behaviors. J Clin Psychiatry 2010;71(12):1617-1628 (C) Copyright 2010 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

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OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to investigate the success rate of using the facial motor evoked potential (FMEP) of orbicularis oculi and oris muscles for facial nerve function monitoring with use of a stepwise protocol, and its usefulness in predicting facial nerve outcome during cerebellopontine angle (CPA) surgeries. METHODS: FMEPs were recorded intraoperatively from 60 patients undergoing CPA surgeries. Transcranial electrocortical stimulation (TES) was performed using corkscrew electrodes positioned at hemispheric montage (C3/C4 and CZ). The contralateral abductor pollicis brevis muscle was used as the control response. Stimulation was always applied contralaterally to the affected side using 1, 3, or 5 rectangular pulses ranging from 200 to 600 V with 50 mu s of pulse duration and an interstimulus interval of 2 ms. Facial potentials were recorded from needles placed in the orbicularis oculi and oris muscles. RESULTS: FMEP from the orbicularis oris and oculi muscles could be reliably monitored in 86.7% and 85% of the patients, respectively. The immediate postoperative facial function correlated significantly with the FMEP ratio in the orbicularis oculi muscle at 80% amplitude ratio (P =.037) and orbicularis oris muscle at 35% ratio (P =.000). FMEP loss was always related to postoperative facial paresis, although in different degrees. CONCLUSION: FMEPs can be obtained reliably by using TES with 3 to 5 train pulses. Stable intraoperative FMEPs can predict a good postoperative outcome of facial function. However, further refinements of this technique are necessary to minimize artifacts and to make this method more reliable.

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To obtain a high quality EMG acquisition, the signal must be recorded as far away as possible from muscle innervations and tendon zones, which are known to shift during dynamic contractions. This study describes a methodology, using commercial bipolar electrodes, to identify better electrode positions for superficial EMG of lower limb muscles during dynamic contractions. Eight female volunteers participated in this study. Myoelectric signals of the vastus lateralis, gastrocnemius medialis, peroneus longus and tibialis anterior muscles were acquired during maximum isometric contractions using bipolar electrodes. The electrode positions of each muscle were selected assessing SENIAM and then, other positions were located along the length of muscle up and down the SENIAM site. The raw signal (density), the linear envelopes, the RMS value, the motor point site, the position of the IZ and its shift during dynamic contractions were taken into account to select and compare electrode positions. For vastus lateralis and peroneus longus, the best sites were 66% and 25% of muscle length, respectively (similar to SENIAM location). The position of the tibialis anterior electrodes presented the best signal at 47.5% of its length (different from SENIAM location). The position of the gastrocnemius medialis electrodes was at 38% of its length and SENIAM does not specify a precise location for signal acquisition. The proposed method should be considered as another methodological step in every EMG study to guarantee the quality of the signal and subsequent human movement interpretations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Background/Aims: While laboratory methods for the detection of testicular tissue are well standardized, currently there is no available test to demonstrate the presence of ovarian tissue. We evaluated the effectiveness of gonadal stimulation with luteinizing hormone (LH)/follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) for the detection of ovarian tissue in patients with disorders of sex development (DSD). Methods: Ten patients with congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) as ovarian-positive controls, 10 with cryptorchidism (ovarian-negative controls), 13 patients with DSD of no defined etiology and 7 patients with ovotesticular DSD (true hermaphroditism, TH) were included in the study. They underwent a daily injection of both LH and FSH on 3 consecutive days. LH, FSH, estradiol, testosterone and inhibin A were measured before treatment, 24 h after the 1st dose and 24 h after the 3rd dose. Results: Estradiol increased in all CAH and TH patients, with a median value of 155.1 and 92.6 pg/ml, respectively, after the 3rd injection. Inhibin A also increased in all CAH and TH patients, with a median value of 70.4 and 32.2 pg/ml, respectively, after the 3rd injection. There was no change in these hormones in the other groups. Conclusion: The LH/FSH stimulation test might be a useful method to detect the presence of ovarian tissue. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

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PURPOSE. To assess whether baseline Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS; HRT-3; Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany) results are predictive of progression in patients with suspected glaucoma. The GPS is a new feature of the confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope that generates an operator-independent, three-dimensional model of the optic nerve head and gives a score for the probability that this model is consistent with glaucomatous damage. METHODS. The study included 223 patients with suspected glaucoma during an average follow-up of 63.3 months. Included subjects had a suspect optic disc appearance and/or elevated intraocular pressure, but normal visual fields. Conversion was defined as development of either repeatable abnormal visual fields or glaucomatous deterioration in the appearance of the optic disc during the study period. The association between baseline GPS and conversion was investigated by Cox regression models. RESULTS. Fifty-four (24.2%) eyes converted. In multivariate models, both higher values of GPS global and subjective stereophotograph assessment ( larger cup-disc ratio and glaucomatous grading) were predictive of conversion: adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI): 1.31 (1.15 - 1.50) per 0.1 higher global GPS, 1.34 (1.12 - 1.62) per 0.1 higher CDR, and 2.34 (1.22 - 4.47) for abnormal grading, respectively. No significant differences ( P > 0.05 for all comparisons) were found between the c-index values ( equivalent to area under ROC curve) for the multivariate models (0.732, 0.705, and 0.699, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. GPS values were predictive of conversion in our population of patients with suspected glaucoma. Further, they performed as well as subjective assessment of the optic disc. These results suggest that GPS could potentially replace stereophotograph as a tool for estimating the likelihood of conversion to glaucoma.

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Some Latin American countries have plans for total control and/or eradication of Chagas disease by the main vector (Triatoma infestans) and by blood transfusion. To achieve this, patients with Chagas disease must be identified. A Western blotting test, TESAcruzi, is described as a supplemental test for diagnosis of Chagas disease using samples collected from children <5 years living in different states of Brazil. Blood samples collected by finger prick on filter paper were sent to the test laboratory by a central laboratory to confirm results obtained previously. Ten percent of negative samples, all doubtful and all positive samples were received. Commercial reagents, IgG indirect immunofluorescence, enzyme immunoassay, and a recently introduced TESAcruzi test were used. From 8788 samples, 163 (1.85%) were reactive by IgG-ELISA and 312 (3.55%) by IgG IIF. From these, 77 (0.87%) were reactive in the TESAcruzi test. The results had high clinical value to identify those truly infected. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Axial vertebral rotation, an important parameter in the assessment of scoliosis may be identified on X-ray images. In line with the advances in the field of digital radiography, hospitals have been increasingly using this technique. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the reliability of computer-processed rotation measurements obtained from digital radiographs. A software program was therefore developed, which is able to digitally reproduce the methods of Perdriolle and Raimondi and to calculate semi-automatically the rotation degree of vertebra on digital radiographs. Three independent observers estimated vertebral rotation employing both the digital and the traditional manual methods. Compared to the traditional method, the digital assessment showed a 43% smaller error and a stronger correlation. In conclusion, the digital method seems to be reliable and enhance the accuracy and precision of vertebral rotation measurements.

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Study design: Cross-sectional study. Objective: Pulmonary functional capacity in 23 Brazilian quadriplegic subjects (ASIA A), aged 30 (9.5) years, weight 66 (10.75) kg, height 176 (7) cm, was investigated at 42 ( 64) months postinjury. Setting: University Hospital-UNICAMP, Campinas, Brazil. Method: Subjects performed forced vital capacity ( FVC) and maximal voluntary ventilation (MVV) tests while seated in their standard wheelchairs. Forced Expired Volume after 1 s (FEV1) and FVC/FEV1 ratio were calculated from these tests. Values obtained were compared to three prediction equations from the literature that are used specifically for spinal cord subjects and include different variables in their formulae, such as age, gender, height, postinjury time and injury level. Data are expressed as median (interquartile interval). Differences between values were demonstrated by median confidence interval with significance level set at a 0.05. Results: Obtained data were statistically different from prediction equation results, with FVC 3.11 ( 0.81), 4.46 (0.28), 4.16 (0.33), 4.26 (0.42); FEV1 2.77 (1.03), 3.67 (0.21), 3.66 (0.30), 3.45 (0.39) and MVV 92 (27), 154.2 (11.9), 156.6 (14),157.3 (16.8), where the first value is obtained experimentally and the second, third and fourth values correspond to predicted values. The results obtained from spirometry test in this study differed significantly from the results obtained when prediction equations were used. Conclusion: The use of prediction equations developed to estimate pulmonary function in wheelchair users significantly overestimates pulmonary function of quadriplegic individuals with complete lesions (ASIA group A), in comparison to measured values.

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This paper describes an easy, cheap, and safe method of capturing and handling the medically important spider Phoneutria for venom extraction. The method does not injure or kill the spider and allows the extraction of pure venom.

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The Golgi method has been used for over a century to describe the general morphology of neurons in the nervous system of different species. The ""single-section"" Golgi method of Gabbott and Somogyi (1984) and the modifications made by Izzo et al. (1987) are able to produce consistent results. Here, we describe procedures to show cortical and subcortical neurons of human brains immersed in formalin for months or even years. The tissue was sliced with a vibratome, post-fixed in a combination of paraformaldehyde and picric acid in phosphate buffer, followed by osmium tetroxide and potassium dicromate, ""sandwiched"" between cover slips, and immersed in silver nitrate. The whole procedure takes between 5 and 11 days to achieve good results. The Golgi method has its characteristic pitfalls but, with this procedure, neurons and glia appear well-impregnated, allowing qualitative and quantitative studies under light microscopy. This contribution adds to the basic techniques for the study of human nervous tissue with the same advantages described for the ""single-section"" Golgi method in other species; it is easy and fast, requires minimal equipment, and provides consistent results. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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In this paper, we propose a method based on association rule-mining to enhance the diagnosis of medical images (mammograms). It combines low-level features automatically extracted from images and high-level knowledge from specialists to search for patterns. Our method analyzes medical images and automatically generates suggestions of diagnoses employing mining of association rules. The suggestions of diagnosis are used to accelerate the image analysis performed by specialists as well as to provide them an alternative to work on. The proposed method uses two new algorithms, PreSAGe and HiCARe. The PreSAGe algorithm combines, in a single step, feature selection and discretization, and reduces the mining complexity. Experiments performed on PreSAGe show that this algorithm is highly suitable to perform feature selection and discretization in medical images. HiCARe is a new associative classifier. The HiCARe algorithm has an important property that makes it unique: it assigns multiple keywords per image to suggest a diagnosis with high values of accuracy. Our method was applied to real datasets, and the results show high sensitivity (up to 95%) and accuracy (up to 92%), allowing us to claim that the use of association rules is a powerful means to assist in the diagnosing task.

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Background: We report the validation of a method for the determination of acetaldehyde, acetone, methanol, and ethanol in biological fluids using manual headspace sample introduction and an acetonitrile internal standard. Method: This method uses a capillary column (I = 30 m, I.D. = 0.25 mm, dF = 0.25 mu m) installed in a gas chromatography-flame ionization detector (GC-FID) apparatus with a run time of 7.5 minutes. Results: Analysis of the retention times and the resolution of the analyte peaks demonstrated excellent separation without widening of the peaks. Precision and accuracy were good (interassay precision < 15% and recovery between 85% and 115%) in both blood and urine. Conclusion: The method was linear (r > 0.09) over the analytical measurement range (AMR) of each analyte.