Desarrollo de un método estadístico para la generación de escenarios climáticos de alta resolución a partir de simulaciones de baja resolución de Modelos de Circulación General: aplicación a España

Esta tesis doctoral presenta el desarrollo, verificación y aplicación de un método original de regionalización estadística para generar escenarios locales de clima futuro de temperatura y precipitación diarias, que combina dos pasos. El primer paso es un método de análogos: los "n" días cuya configuración atmosférica de baja resolución es más parecida a la del día problema, se seleccionan de un banco de datos de referencia del pasado. En el segundo paso, se realiza un análisis de regresión múltiple sobre los "n" días más análogos para la temperatura, mientras que para la precipitación se utiliza la distribución de probabilidad de esos "n" días análogos para obtener la estima de precipitación. La verificación de este método se ha llevado a cabo para la España peninsular y las Islas Baleares. Los resultados muestran unas buenas prestaciones para temperatura (BIAS cerca de 0.1ºC y media de errores absolutos alrededor de 1.9ºC); y unas prestaciones aceptables para la precipitación (BIAS razonablemente bajo con una media de -18%; error medio absoluto menor que para una simulación de referencia (la persistencia); y una distribución de probabilidad simulada similar a la observada según dos test no-paramétricos de similitud). Para mostrar la aplicabilidad de la metodología desarrollada, se ha aplicado en detalle en un caso de estudio. El método se aplicó a cuatro modelos climáticos bajo diferentes escenarios futuros de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, para la región de Aragón, produciendo así proyecciones futuras de precipitación y temperaturas máximas y mínimas diarias. La fiabilidad de la técnica de regionalización fue evaluada de nuevo para el caso de estudio mediante un proceso de verificación. Para determinar la capacidad de los modelos climáticos para simular el clima real, sus simulaciones del pasado (la denominada salida 20C3M) se regionalizaron y luego se compararon con el clima observado (los resultados son bastante robustos para la temperatura y menos concluyentes para la precipitación). Las proyecciones futuras a escala local presentan un aumento significativo durante todo el siglo XXI de las temperaturas máximas y mínimas para todos los futuros escenarios de emisiones considerados. Las simulaciones de precipitación presentan mayores incertidumbres. Además, la aplicabilidad práctica del método se demostró también mediante su utilización para producir escenarios climáticos futuros para otros casos de estudio en los distintos sectores y regiones del mundo. Se ha prestado especial atención a una aplicación en Centroamérica, una región que ya está sufriendo importantes impactos del cambio climático y que tiene un clima muy diferente. ABSTRACT This doctoral thesis presents the development, verification and application of an original downscaling method for daily temperature and precipitation, which combines two statistical approaches. The first step is an analogue approach: the “n” days most similar to the day to be downscaled are selected. In the second step, a multiple regression analysis using the “n” most analogous days is performed for temperature, whereas for precipitation the probability distribution of the “n” analogous days is used to obtain the amount of precipitation. Verification of this method has been carried out for the Spanish Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. Results show good performance for temperature (BIAS close to 0.1ºC and Mean Absolute Errors around 1.9ºC); and an acceptable skill for precipitation (reasonably low BIAS with a mean of - 18%, Mean Absolute Error lower than for a reference simulation, i.e. persistence, and a well-simulated probability distribution according to two non-parametric tests of similarity). To show the applicability of the method, a study case has been analyzed. The method was applied to four climate models under different future emission scenarios for the region of Aragón, thus producing future projections of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures. The reliability of the downscaling technique was re-assessed for the study case by a verification process. To determine the ability of the climate models to simulate the real climate, their simulations of the past (the 20C3M output) were downscaled and then compared with the observed climate – the results are quite robust for temperature and less conclusive for the precipitation. The downscaled future projections exhibit a significant increase during the entire 21st century of the maximum and minimum temperatures for all the considered future emission scenarios. Precipitation simulations exhibit greater uncertainties. Furthermore, the practical applicability of the method was demonstrated also by using it to produce future climate scenarios for some other study cases in different sectors and regions of the world. Special attention was paid to an application of the method in Central America, a region that is already suffering from significant climate change impacts and that has a very different climate from others where the method was previously applied.

EXPERIÊNCIAS AFETIVAS NO CONTEXTO ORGANIZACIONAL E SEU IMPACTO SOBRE O BEM-ESTAR NO TRABALHO

Em ambiente de elevada pressão, competição e necessidade de criação de diferenciais consistentes que venham contribuir com a longevidade das organizações, nota-se a busca e, às vezes, radicais transformações nos modelos de gestão de negócios e gestão do ser humano no meio empresarial. No campo central dos estudos atuais acerca do comportamento humano e de suas relações com as diversas instituições em que o homem se vê inserido, figuram os esforços voltados à compreensão do papel e valor da contribuição do ser humano ao ambiente de trabalho e fortalecimento das organizações. Crescentes se mostram a preocupação e o entendimento sobre os fatores que impactam o bem-estar geral, o bem-estar no trabalho, a saúde dos trabalhadores e as variáveis emocionais oriundas das relações interpessoais comuns a todo organismo social. A combinação de temas emergentes e ricos em significância como bem-estar no trabalho, satisfação e envolvimento com o trabalho, comprometimento organizacional afetivo, emoções, afetos e sentimentos, caracterizam-se como um vasto e instigante campo de pesquisa para uma adaptação mais ampla do ser humano ao ambiente organizacional. O presente estudo teve como objetivo submeter ao teste empírico as relações entre experiências afetivas no contexto organizacional e três dimensões de bem-estar no trabalho - satisfação no trabalho, envolvimento com o trabalho e comprometimento organizacional afetivo. A amostra foi composta por 253 profissionais de uma indústria metalúrgica de autopeças na grande São Paulo, sendo 213 do sexo masculino e 29 do sexo feminino, com maior freqüência na faixa etária compreendida entre 26 a 30 anos, distribuída entre solteiros e casados. Para a coleta de dados foi utilizado um questionário de auto-preenchimento com quatro escalas que avaliaram afetos positivos e negativos, satisfação no trabalho, envolvimento com o trabalho e comprometimento organizacional afetivo. A análise dos dados foi feita por meio do SPSS, versão 16.0 e diversos sub-programas permitiram realizar análises descritivas bem como calcular modelos de regressão linear para verificar o impacto de afetos positivos e negativos sobre bem-estar no trabalho. Os resultados deste estudo revelaram que o principal preditor das dimensões de bem-estar no trabalho foram os afetos positivos. Assim, parece ser adequado afirmar que bem-estar no trabalho seja um estado psicológico sustentado, em especial, pela vivência de emoções positivas no contexto organizacional. Sugere-se que a promoção da saúde e do bem-estar dentro das organizações sejam focos de estudos futuros, representando valiosa contribuição aos campos de conhecimento da psicologia da saúde e da psicologia organizacional, bem como ao conseqüente fortalecimento dos vínculos entre empresa e trabalhadores.(AU)

EXPERIÊNCIAS AFETIVAS NO CONTEXTO ORGANIZACIONAL E SEU IMPACTO SOBRE O BEM-ESTAR NO TRABALHO

Em ambiente de elevada pressão, competição e necessidade de criação de diferenciais consistentes que venham contribuir com a longevidade das organizações, nota-se a busca e, às vezes, radicais transformações nos modelos de gestão de negócios e gestão do ser humano no meio empresarial. No campo central dos estudos atuais acerca do comportamento humano e de suas relações com as diversas instituições em que o homem se vê inserido, figuram os esforços voltados à compreensão do papel e valor da contribuição do ser humano ao ambiente de trabalho e fortalecimento das organizações. Crescentes se mostram a preocupação e o entendimento sobre os fatores que impactam o bem-estar geral, o bem-estar no trabalho, a saúde dos trabalhadores e as variáveis emocionais oriundas das relações interpessoais comuns a todo organismo social. A combinação de temas emergentes e ricos em significância como bem-estar no trabalho, satisfação e envolvimento com o trabalho, comprometimento organizacional afetivo, emoções, afetos e sentimentos, caracterizam-se como um vasto e instigante campo de pesquisa para uma adaptação mais ampla do ser humano ao ambiente organizacional. O presente estudo teve como objetivo submeter ao teste empírico as relações entre experiências afetivas no contexto organizacional e três dimensões de bem-estar no trabalho - satisfação no trabalho, envolvimento com o trabalho e comprometimento organizacional afetivo. A amostra foi composta por 253 profissionais de uma indústria metalúrgica de autopeças na grande São Paulo, sendo 213 do sexo masculino e 29 do sexo feminino, com maior freqüência na faixa etária compreendida entre 26 a 30 anos, distribuída entre solteiros e casados. Para a coleta de dados foi utilizado um questionário de auto-preenchimento com quatro escalas que avaliaram afetos positivos e negativos, satisfação no trabalho, envolvimento com o trabalho e comprometimento organizacional afetivo. A análise dos dados foi feita por meio do SPSS, versão 16.0 e diversos sub-programas permitiram realizar análises descritivas bem como calcular modelos de regressão linear para verificar o impacto de afetos positivos e negativos sobre bem-estar no trabalho. Os resultados deste estudo revelaram que o principal preditor das dimensões de bem-estar no trabalho foram os afetos positivos. Assim, parece ser adequado afirmar que bem-estar no trabalho seja um estado psicológico sustentado, em especial, pela vivência de emoções positivas no contexto organizacional. Sugere-se que a promoção da saúde e do bem-estar dentro das organizações sejam focos de estudos futuros, representando valiosa contribuição aos campos de conhecimento da psicologia da saúde e da psicologia organizacional, bem como ao conseqüente fortalecimento dos vínculos entre empresa e trabalhadores.(AU)

Sex-specific quantitative trait loci affecting longevity in Drosophila melanogaster

Senescence, the decline in survivorship and fertility with increasing age, is a near-universal property of organisms. Senescence and limited lifespan are thought to arise because weak natural selection late in life allows the accumulation of mutations with deleterious late-age effects that are either neutral (the mutation accumulation hypothesis) or beneficial (the antagonistic pleiotropy hypothesis) early in life. Analyses of Drosophila spontaneous mutations, patterns of segregating variation and covariation, and lines selected for late-age fertility have implicated both classes of mutation in the evolution of aging, but neither their relative contributions nor the properties of individual loci that cause aging in nature are known. To begin to dissect the multiple genetic causes of quantitative variation in lifespan, we have conducted a genome-wide screen for quantitative trait loci (QTLs) affecting lifespan that segregate among a panel of recombinant inbred lines using a dense molecular marker map. Five autosomal QTLs were mapped by composite interval mapping and by sequential multiple marker analysis. The QTLs had large sex-specific effects on lifespan and age-specific effects on survivorship and mortality and mapped to the same regions as candidate genes with fertility, cellular aging, stress resistance and male-specific effects. Late age-of-onset QTL effects are consistent with the mutation accumulation hypothesis for the evolution of senescence, and sex-specific QTL effects suggest a novel mechanism for maintaining genetic variation for lifespan.

Culture as shared cognitive representations.

Culture consists of shared cognitive representations in the minds of individuals. This paper investigates the extent to which English speakers share the "same" semantic structure of English kinship terms. The semantic structure is defined as the arrangement of the terms relative to each other as represented in a metric space in which items judged more similar are placed closer to each other than items judged as less similar. The cognitive representation of the semantic structure, residing in the mind of an individual, is measured by judged similarity tasks involving comparisons among terms. Using six independent measurements, from each of 122 individuals, correspondence analysis represents the data in a common multidimensional spatial representation. Judged by a variety of statistical procedures, the individuals in our sample share virtually identical cognitive representations of the semantic structure of kinship terms. This model of culture accounts for 70-90% of the total variability in these data. We argue that our findings on kinship should generalize to all semantic domains--e.g., animals, emotions, etc. The investigation of semantic domains is important because they may reside in localized functional units in the brain, because they relate to a variety of cognitive processes, and because they have the potential to provide methods for diagnosing individual breakdowns in the structure of cognitive representations typical of such ailments as Alzheimer disease.

Consumo alimentar e estilo de vida: um estudo longitudinal com estudantes universitários

A universidade é um local de aprendizagem no qual conhecimento acadêmico, social e cultural permeia a relação entre os estudantes, onde estes terão a oportunidade de vivenciar diferentes situações durante o curso. A maior preocupação é como esta experiência influenciará o estado nutricional com a possível mudança dos hábitos cotidianos, como abuso de bebidas alcoólicas, uso irrestrito de suplementos vitamínicos e alimentares e a alimentação inadequada. O consumo alimentar de universitários foi o foco desta pesquisa que teve como objetivo geral identificar as principais mudanças do consumo de alimentos/ bebidas e estilos de vida por meio de estudo de coorte, envolvendo estudantes ingressantes nos cursos de graduação da Escola Superior de Agricultura \"Luiz de Queiroz\" - ESALQ/USP, e como objetivos específicos desenvolver, validar e aplicar um instrumento com a finalidade de identificar medidas comportamentais relacionadas aos hábitos de consumo alimentar, atividade física, situação socioeconômica e relacionar as informações obtidas ao estado nutricional do estudante; descrever o consumo dentro e fora do domicílio. Participaram da pesquisa estudantes com idade entre 18 e 30 anos. Um questionário foi aplicado juntamente com a avaliação antropométrica para mensuração do peso, altura e classificação do estado nutricional por meio do Índice de Massa Corporal (IMC). Este protocolo foi repetido após 8 meses de curso para que fosse identificada a situação do estado nutricional de cada indivíduo relacionada às mudanças do comportamento alimentar. Os dados coletados foram armazenados em base de dados no Microsoft Excel, sendo analisados por meio do Statistical Analysis System. Os dados quantitativos foram expressos em média e desvio-padrão (DP) com cálculos de intervalos de confiança de 95%. O teste do qui-quadrado foi utilizado para comparar a distribuição da prevalência de sobrepeso e obesidade quanto à variável sexo, associando-se ao IMC. Foi utilizado o coeficiente de correlação intraclasse de Pearson para verificação de concordância entre peso e altura aferidos e referidos. Foi realizada análise de regressão múltipla para identificação da mudança de consumo entre as fases, assim como para peso corporal. Utilizou-se o nível de significância de 5%. Observaram-se entre as duas fases quantidades preocupantes de nutrientes ingeridos aquém ou além dos limites preconizados para ambos os sexos; destaque para o elevado consumo de sódio, e insatisfatório de carotenóides. No caso dos carotenóides, houve crescimento significativo da contribuição da categoria 3 para as alunas. O consumo de cafeína na segunda fase foi maior, predominando o fornecimento pelos alimentos ultraprocessados. De forma geral houve aumento do consumo de alimentos processados e ultraprocessados. Observou-se aumento (significativo a 5%) no consumo de lipídios. Constatou-se diminuição na prática de exercícios físicos e aumento na ingestão de bebidas alcoólicas, e destas com energéticos e no tabagismo. Concluiu-se que o ingresso na universidade contribui para a mudança nos hábitos alimentares e estilos de vida de maneira negativa, sendo necessária intervenção adequada visando a promoção da saúde dos estudantes.

Influence of characteristics of irrigation channels on the breeding bird community of a wetland zone in southeast of Spain

The “El Hondo Nature Park” is mainly composed of a series of irrigation channels and water reservoirs, subjected to various regimes of management as well as reed and vegetation control, thus creating a great variety of habitats and situations. To determine the influence of these habitats and management regimes on the local bird community, a set of characteristics of these channels and their surrounding area were analysed with a Correspondence Analysis (CA). The degree of reed development in channels and the presence in the surroundings of orchards and other reed formations were the most decisive factors to explain the probability of occurrence of reed birds and waterbirds, as well as bird species richness and abundance. Other bird species were not directly influenced by channel variables, but only by those of surrounding land uses.

Modeling construction time in Spanish building projects

The literature states that project duration is affected by various scope factors. Using 168 building projects carried out in Spain, this paper uses the multiple regression analysis to develop a forecast model that allows estimating project duration of new builds. The proposed model uses project type, gross floor area (GFA), the cost/GFA relationship and number of floors as predictor variables. The research identified the logarithmic form of construction speed as the most appropriate response variable. GFA has greater influence than cost on project duration but both factors are necessary to achieve a forecast model with the highest accuracy. We developed an analysis to verify the stability of forecasted values and showed how a model with high values of fit and accuracy may display an anomalous behavior in the forecasted values. The sensitivity of the proposed forecast model was also analyzed versus the variability of construction costs.

Correlation of Anterior and Posterior Corneal Shape in Keratoconus

Purpose: To evaluate the correlation of the mean curvature and shape factors of both corneal surfaces for different corneal diameters measured with the Scheimpflug photography–based system in keratoconus eyes. Methods: A total of 61 keratoconus eyes of 61 subjects, aged 14 to 64 years, were included in this study. All eyes received a comprehensive ophthalmologic examination including anterior segment and corneal analysis with the Sirius system (CSO): anterior and posterior mean corneal radius for 3, 5, and 7 mm (aKM, pKM), anterior and posterior mean shape factor for 4.5 and 8 mm (ap, pp), central and minimal corneal thickness, and anterior chamber depth. Results: Mean aKM/pKM ratio around 1.20 (range, 0.95–1.48) was found for all corneal diameters (P = 0.24). Weak but significant correlations of this ratio with pachymetric parameters were found (r between −0.28 and −0.34, P < 0.04). The correlation coefficient between aKM and pKM was ≥0.92 for all corneal diameters. A strong and significant correlation was also found between ap and pp (r ≥ 0.86, P < 0.01). The multiple regression analysis revealed that central pKM was significantly correlated with aKM, central corneal thickness, anterior chamber depth, and spherical equivalent (R2 ≥ 0.88, P < 0.01) and that 8 mm pp was significantly correlated with 8 mm ap and age (R2 = 0.89, P < 0.01). Conclusions: Central posterior corneal curvature and shape factor in the keratoconus eye can be consistently predicted from the anterior corneal curvature and shape factor, respectively, in combination with other anatomical and ocular parameters.

Error induced by the estimation of the corneal power and the effective lens position with a rotationally asymmetric refractive multifocal intraocular lens

AIM: To evaluate the prediction error in intraocular lens (IOL) power calculation for a rotationally asymmetric refractive multifocal IOL and the impact on this error of the optimization of the keratometric estimation of the corneal power and the prediction of the effective lens position (ELP). METHODS: Retrospective study including a total of 25 eyes of 13 patients (age, 50 to 83y) with previous cataract surgery with implantation of the Lentis Mplus LS-312 IOL (Oculentis GmbH, Germany). In all cases, an adjusted IOL power (PIOLadj) was calculated based on Gaussian optics using a variable keratometric index value (nkadj) for the estimation of the corneal power (Pkadj) and on a new value for ELP (ELPadj) obtained by multiple regression analysis. This PIOLadj was compared with the IOL power implanted (PIOLReal) and the value proposed by three conventional formulas (Haigis, Hoffer Q and Holladay). RESULTS: PIOLReal was not significantly different than PIOLadj and Holladay IOL power (P>0.05). In the Bland and Altman analysis, PIOLadj showed lower mean difference (-0.07 D) and limits of agreement (of 1.47 and -1.61 D) when compared to PIOLReal than the IOL power value obtained with the Holladay formula. Furthermore, ELPadj was significantly lower than ELP calculated with other conventional formulas (P<0.01) and was found to be dependent on axial length, anterior chamber depth and Pkadj. CONCLUSION: Refractive outcomes after cataract surgery with implantation of the multifocal IOL Lentis Mplus LS-312 can be optimized by minimizing the keratometric error and by estimating ELP using a mathematical expression dependent on anatomical factors.

Positional accommodative intraocular lens power error induced by the estimation of the corneal power and the effective lens position

Purpose: To evaluate the predictability of the refractive correction achieved with a positional accommodating intraocular lenses (IOL) and to develop a potential optimization of it by minimizing the error associated with the keratometric estimation of the corneal power and by developing a predictive formula for the effective lens position (ELP). Materials and Methods: Clinical data from 25 eyes of 14 patients (age range, 52–77 years) and undergoing cataract surgery with implantation of the accommodating IOL Crystalens HD (Bausch and Lomb) were retrospectively reviewed. In all cases, the calculation of an adjusted IOL power (PIOLadj) based on Gaussian optics considering the residual refractive error was done using a variable keratometric index value (nkadj) for corneal power estimation with and without using an estimation algorithm for ELP obtained by multiple regression analysis (ELPadj). PIOLadj was compared to the real IOL power implanted (PIOLReal, calculated with the SRK-T formula) and also to the values estimated by the Haigis, HofferQ, and Holladay I formulas. Results: No statistically significant differences were found between PIOLReal and PIOLadj when ELPadj was used (P = 0.10), with a range of agreement between calculations of 1.23 D. In contrast, PIOLReal was significantly higher when compared to PIOLadj without using ELPadj and also compared to the values estimated by the other formulas. Conclusions: Predictable refractive outcomes can be obtained with the accommodating IOL Crystalens HD using a variable keratometric index for corneal power estimation and by estimating ELP with an algorithm dependent on anatomical factors and age.

Reciprocal Prospective Associations Between Depressive Symptoms and Perceived Relationship With Parents in Early Adolescence

Objective: Adolescent depressive symptoms are associated with difficult family relationships. Family systems and interpersonal theories of depression suggest that this association could reflect a circular process in which symptoms and family functioning affect each other over time. Few longitudinal studies have tested this hypothesis, and the results of these studies have been equivocal. In this study, we examine reciprocal prospective associations in early adolescence between depressive symptoms and 2 important aspects of parent–child relationships: communication and conflict. Methods: Participants were 3862 students who annually filled out self-reports. Path analysis was used to examine prospective associations between depressive symptoms and perceived communication and conflict with parents from the age of 12 to 13 and 14 to 15 years. Independence of these associations was assessed by controlling for family context (parental separation and family socioeconomic status) and adolescent behaviour problems (delinquent behaviours and substance use). Sex differences were evaluated with multiple group analysis. Results: Reciprocal prospective associations were found between depressive symptoms and perceived conflict with parents, but not between depressive symptoms and communication with parents. Depressive symptoms were found to predict poorer communication with parents over time, but communication was not predictive of lower depressive symptoms in subsequent years. All paths were sex-invariant and independent from family context and behaviour problems. Conclusion: This study highlights the importance of considering the potential impact of adolescent symptomatology on parent–child relationships and suggests that reciprocity may characterize the association between depressive symptoms and negative aspects of parent–child relationships. The role of adolescent perceptions in the interplay between depressive symptoms and family relationships remains to be clarified.

R&D, Spillovers, Innovation Systems and the Genesis of Regional Growth in Europe. Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 5/October 2006

Research on the impact of innovation on regional economic performance in Europe has fundamentally followed three approaches: a) the analysis of the link between investment in R&D, patents, and economic growth; b) the study of the existence and efficiency of regional innovation systems; and c) the examination of geographical diffusion of regional knowledge spillovers. These complementary approaches have, however, rarely been combined. Important operational and methodological barriers have thwarted any potential cross-fertilization. In this paper, we try to fill this gap in the literature by combining in one model R&D, spillovers, and innovation systems approaches. A multiple regression analysis is conducted for all regions of the EU-25, including measures of R&D investment, proxies for regional innovation systems, and knowledge and socio-economic spillovers. This approach allows us to discriminate between the influence of internal factors and external knowledge and institutional flows on regional economic growth. The empirical results highlight how the interaction between local and external research with local and external socioeconomic and institutional conditions determines the potential of every region in order to maximise its innovation capacity. They also indicate the importance of proximity for the transmission of economically productive knowledge, as spillovers show strong distance decay effects. In the EU-25 context, only the innovative efforts pursued within a 180 minute travel radius have a positive and significant impact on regional growth performance.

Reciprocal Prospective Associations Between Depressive Symptoms and Perceived Relationship With Parents in Early Adolescence

Objective: Adolescent depressive symptoms are associated with difficult family relationships. Family systems and interpersonal theories of depression suggest that this association could reflect a circular process in which symptoms and family functioning affect each other over time. Few longitudinal studies have tested this hypothesis, and the results of these studies have been equivocal. In this study, we examine reciprocal prospective associations in early adolescence between depressive symptoms and 2 important aspects of parent–child relationships: communication and conflict. Methods: Participants were 3862 students who annually filled out self-reports. Path analysis was used to examine prospective associations between depressive symptoms and perceived communication and conflict with parents from the age of 12 to 13 and 14 to 15 years. Independence of these associations was assessed by controlling for family context (parental separation and family socioeconomic status) and adolescent behaviour problems (delinquent behaviours and substance use). Sex differences were evaluated with multiple group analysis. Results: Reciprocal prospective associations were found between depressive symptoms and perceived conflict with parents, but not between depressive symptoms and communication with parents. Depressive symptoms were found to predict poorer communication with parents over time, but communication was not predictive of lower depressive symptoms in subsequent years. All paths were sex-invariant and independent from family context and behaviour problems. Conclusion: This study highlights the importance of considering the potential impact of adolescent symptomatology on parent–child relationships and suggests that reciprocity may characterize the association between depressive symptoms and negative aspects of parent–child relationships. The role of adolescent perceptions in the interplay between depressive symptoms and family relationships remains to be clarified.

Chemical and mineral compositions of sediments from ODP Site 127-797

In order to reconstruct past variations in the aeolian dust (Kosa) contribution to the Japan Sea, and to establish a direct link between terrestrial and marine climatic records, we have applied statistical procedures to distinguish and quantify detrital subcomponents within the detrital fraction of the late Quaternary hemipelagic sediments in the Japan Sea. Q-mode factor analysis with varimax and oblique rotation of the factors followed by multiple-regression analysis between mineral composition and factor loadings was conducted using six ''detrital'' elements. Four detrital subcomponents were defined, which are attributed to Kosa derived from ''typical'' loess, Kosa from ''weathered'' loess, and fine and coarse arc-derived detritus, respectively, based on comparisons with the chemical and mineral compositions of probable source materials. Using these detrital subcomponents, the variation in Kosa fraction was reconstructed for the last 200 ky. The results reveal millennial-scale as well as glacial-interglacial scale variations in Kosa contribution. Especially, millennial-scale variability of Kosa contribution suggests the presence of high frequency variation in summer monsoon precipitation in the central to east Asia during the last 200 ky.