Assessing the significance of climate and community factors on urban water demand

Ensuring adequate water supply to urban areas is a challenging task due to factors such as rapid urban growth, increasing water demand and climate change. In developing a sustainable water supply system, it is important to identify the dominant water demand factors for any given water supply scheme. This paper applies principal components analysis to identify the factors that dominate residential water demand using the Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia as a case study. The results show that the influence of community intervention factors (e.g. use of water efficient appliances and rainwater tanks) on water demand are among the most significant. The result also confirmed that the community intervention programmes and water pricing policy together can play a noticeable role in reducing the overall water demand. On the other hand, the influence of rainfall on water demand is found to be very limited, while temperature shows some degree of correlation with water demand. The results of this study would help water authorities to plan for effective water demand management strategies and to develop a water demand forecasting model with appropriate climatic factors to achieve sustainable water resources management. The methodology developed in this paper can be adapted to other water supply systems to identify the influential factors in water demand modelling and to devise an effective demand management strategy.

Development of a robust framework for an outdoor mobile manipulation UAV

There is a growing interest to autonomously collect or manipulate objects in remote or unknown environments, such as mountains, gullies, bush-land, or rough terrain. There are several limitations of conventional methods using manned or remotely controlled aircraft. The capability of small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) used in parallel with robotic manipulators could overcome some of these limitations. By enabling the autonomous exploration of both naturally hazardous environments, or areas which are biologically, chemically, or radioactively contaminated, it is possible to collect samples and data from such environments without directly exposing personnel to such risks. This paper covers the design, integration, and initial testing of a framework for outdoor mobile manipulation UAV. The framework is designed to allow further integration and testing of complex control theories, with the capability to operate outdoors in unknown environments. The results obtained act as a reference for the effectiveness of the integrated sensors and low-level control methods used for the preliminary testing, as well as identifying the key technologies needed for the development of an outdoor capable system.

Ecology, population genetics and conservation of the African violet

The ongoing rapid fragmentation of tropical forests is a major threat to global biodiversity. This is because many of the tropical forests are so-called biodiversity 'hotspots', areas that host exceptional species richness and concentrations of endemic species. Forest fragmentation has negative ecological and genetic consequences for plant survival. Proposed reasons for plant species' loss in forest fragments are, e.g., abiotic edge effects, altered species interactions, increased genetic drift, and inbreeding depression. To be able to conserve plants in forest fragments, the ecological and genetic processes that threaten the species have to be understood. That is possible only after obtaining adequate information on their biology, including taxonomy, life history, reproduction, and spatial and genetic structure of the populations. In this research, I focused on the African violet (genus Saintpaulia), a little-studied conservation flagship from the Eastern Arc Mountains and Coastal Forests hotspot of Tanzania and Kenya. The main objective of the research was to increase understanding of the life history, ecology and population genetics of Saintpaulia that is needed for the design of appropriate conservation measures. A further aim was to provide population-level insights into the difficult taxonomy of Saintpaulia. Ecological field work was conducted in a relatively little fragmented protected forest in the Amani Nature Reserve in the East Usambara Mountains, in northeastern Tanzania, complemented by population genetic laboratory work and ecological experiments in Helsinki, Finland. All components of the research were conducted with Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei, which forms a taxonomically controversial population complex in the study area. My results suggest that Saintpaulia has good reproductive performance in forests with low disturbance levels in the East Usambara Mountains. Another important finding was that seed production depends on sufficient pollinator service. The availability of pollinators should thus be considered in the in situ management of threatened populations. Dynamic population stage structures were observed suggesting that the studied populations are demographically viable. High mortality of seedlings and juveniles was observed during the dry season but this was compensated by ample recruitment of new seedlings after the rainy season. Reduced tree canopy closure and substrate quality are likely to exacerbate seedling and juvenile mortality, and, therefore, forest fragmentation and disturbance are serious threats to the regeneration of Saintpaulia. Restoration of sufficient shade to enhance seedling establishment is an important conservation measure in populations located in disturbed habitats. Long-term demographic monitoring, which enables the forecasting of a population s future, is also recommended in disturbed habitats. High genetic diversities were observed in the populations, which suggest that they possess the variation that is needed for evolutionary responses in a changing environment. Thus, genetic management of the studied populations does not seem necessary as long as the habitats remain favourable for Saintpaulia. The observed high levels of inbreeding in some of the populations, and the reduced fitness of the inbred progeny compared to the outbred progeny, as revealed by the hand-pollination experiment, indicate that inbreeding and inbreeding depression are potential mechanisms contributing to the extinction of Saintpaulia populations. The relatively weak genetic divergence of the three different morphotypes of Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei lend support to the hypothesis that the populations in the Usambara/lowlands region represent a segregating metapopulation (or metapopulations), where subpopulations are adapting to their particular environments. The partial genetic and phenological integrity, and the distinct trailing habit of the morphotype 'grotei' would, however, justify its placement in a taxonomic rank of its own, perhaps in a subspecific rank.

Diurnal-scale signatures of monsoon rainfall over the Indian region from TRMM satellite observations

One of the most important modes of summer season precipitation variability over the Indian region, the diurnal cycle, is studied using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3-hourly, 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees 3B42 rainfall product for nine years (1999-2007). Most previous studies have provided an analysis of a single year or a few years of satellite-or station-based rainfall data. Our study aims to systematically analyze the statistical characteristics of the diurnal-scale signature of rainfall over the Indian and surrounding regions. Using harmonic analysis, we extract the signal corresponding to diurnal and subdiurnal variability. Subsequently, the 3-hourly time period or the octet of rainfall peak for this filtered signal, referred to as the ``peak octet,'' is estimated, with care taken to eliminate spurious peaks arising out of Gibbs oscillations. Our analysis suggests that over the Bay of Bengal, there are three distinct modes of the peak octet of diurnal rainfall corresponding to 1130, 1430, and 1730 Indian standard time (IST), from the north central to south bay. This finding could be seen to be consistent with southward propagation of the diurnal rainfall pattern reported by earlier studies. Over the Arabian Sea, there is a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet (1430 IST), in a region where it rains for more than 30% of the time. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, while most of the western part shows a late night/early morning peak, the eastern part does not show a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet owing to the occurrence of a ual maxima (early morng and early/late afternoon). The imalayan foothills were found to have a mode of peak octet corresponding to 0230 IST, whereas over the Burmese mountains and the Western Ghats (west coast of India) the rainfall peaks during late afternoon/early evening (1430-1730 IST). This implies that the phase of the diurnal cycle over inland orography (e. g., Himalayas) is significantly different from coastal orography (e. g., Western Ghats). We also find that over the Gangetic plains, the peak octet is around 1430 IST, a few hours earlier compared to the typical early evening maxima over land.

Numerical Modelling of the Observed Diurnal Cycle of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

We have analysed the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Indian region (10S-35N, 60E-100E) using both satellite and in-situ data, and found many interesting features associated with this fundamental, yet under-explored, mode of variability. Since there is a distinct and strong diurnal mode of variability associated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, we evaluate the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate the observed diurnal rainfall characteristics. The model (at 54km grid-spacing) is integrated for the month of July, 2006, since this period was particularly favourable for the study of diurnal cycle. We first evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), by using two different SST datasets, namely, Final Analyses (FNL) and Real-time Global (RTG). It was found that with RTG SST the rainfall simulation over central India (CI) was significantly better than that with FNL. On the other hand, over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), rainfall simulated with FNL was marginally better than with RTG. However, the overall performance of RTG SST was found to be better than FNL, and hence it was used for further model simulations. Next, we investigated the role of the convective parameterization scheme on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall. We found that the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme performs significantly better than Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ) and Grell-Devenyi schemes. We also studied the impact of other physical parameterizations, namely, microphysics, boundary layer, land surface, and the radiation parameterization, on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall, and identified the “best” model configuration. We used this configuration of the “best” model to perform a sensitivity study on the role of various convective components used in the KF scheme. In particular, we studied the role of convective downdrafts, convective timescale, and feedback fraction, on the simulated diurnal cycle of rainfall. The “best” model simulations, in general, show a good agreement with observations. Specifically, (i) Over CI, the simulated diurnal rainfall peak is at 1430 IST, in comparison to the observed 1430-1730 IST peak; (ii) Over Western Ghats and Burmese mountains, the model simulates a diurnal rainfall peak at 1430 IST, as opposed to the observed peak of 1430-1730 IST; (iii) Over Sumatra, both model and observations show a diurnal peak at 1730 IST; (iv) The observed southward propagating diurnal rainfall bands over BoB are weakly simulated by WRF. Besides the diurnal cycle of rainfall, the mean spatial pattern of total rainfall and its partitioning between the convective and stratiform components, are also well simulated. The “best” model configuration was used to conduct two nested simulations with one-way, three-level nesting (54-18-6km) over CI and BoB. While, the 54km and 18km simulations were conducted for the whole of July, 2006, the 6km simulation was carried out for the period 18 - 24 July, 2006. The results of our coarse- and fine-scale numerical simulations of the diurnal cycle of monsoon rainfall will be discussed.

Vegetative phenology of tropical montane forests in the Nilgiris, South India

Spatial and temporal variation in foliar phenology plays a significant role in growth and reproduction of a plant species. Foliar phenology is strongly influenced by environmental factors such as rainfall. A study on phenology of tropical montane forests was undertaken in three different forest patches of the Nilgiri Mountains in peninsular India above 2000 meters ASL. Since August 2000, 500 trees belonging to 70 species of angiosperms were monitored for both vegetative and reproductive phenologies on a monthly basis. Climate data were collected from nearby weather stations. This paper reports results of the study from August 2000 - August 2003 on foliar phenology. Non-parametric correlations and multiple regressions were performed to analyse the influence of environmental factors such as rainfall, temperature and sunshine on foliar phenology. It was found that moisture related factors had a negative influence on the leaf initiation. Circular statistical analyses were performed to understand the seasonality in different phenophases of foliar phenology. Different phenophases of leafing were not significantly seasonal. Results are discussed and compared among three different forest patches on the Nilgiri plateau and also with other montane forest patches across the globe.

Monsoon circulation interaction with Western Ghats orography under changing climate - Projection by a 20-km mesh AGCM

In this study, the authors have investigated the likely future changes in the summer monsoon over the Western Ghats (WG) orographic region of India in response to global warming, using time-slice simulations of an ultra high-resolution global climate model and climate datasets of recent past. The model with approximately 20-km mesh horizontal resolution resolves orographic features on finer spatial scales leading to a quasi-realistic simulation of the spatial distribution of the present-day summer monsoon rainfall over India and trends in monsoon rainfall over the west coast of India. As a result, a higher degree of confidence appears to emerge in many aspects of the 20-km model simulation, and therefore, we can have better confidence in the validity of the model prediction of future changes in the climate over WG mountains. Our analysis suggests that the summer mean rainfall and the vertical velocities over the orographic regions of Western Ghats have significantly weakened during the recent past and the model simulates these features realistically in the present-day climate simulation. Under future climate scenario, by the end of the twenty-first century, the model projects reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghats south of 16A degrees N that is found to be associated with drastic reduction in the southwesterly winds and moisture transport into the region, weakening of the summer mean meridional circulation and diminished vertical velocities. We show that this is due to larger upper tropospheric warming relative to the surface and lower levels, which decreases the lapse rate causing an increase in vertical moist static stability (which in turn inhibits vertical ascent) in response to global warming. Increased stability that weakens vertical velocities leads to reduction in large-scale precipitation which is found to be the major contributor to summer mean rainfall over WG orographic region. This is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy rainfall days over WG which is a typical manifestation of the decrease in large-scale precipitation over this region. Thus, the drastic reduction of vertical ascent and weakening of circulation due to `upper tropospheric warming effect' predominates over the `moisture build-up effect' in reducing the rainfall over this narrow orographic region. This analysis illustrates that monsoon rainfall over mountainous regions is strongly controlled by processes and parameterized physics which need to be resolved with adequately high resolution for accurate assessment of local and regional-scale climate change.

Flying between Sky Islands: The Effect of Naturally Fragmented Habitat on Butterfly Population Structure

High elevation montane areas are called ``sky islands'' when they occur as a series of high mountains separated by lowland valleys. Different climatic conditions at high elevations makes sky islands a specialized type of habitat, rendering them naturally fragmented compared to more continuous habitat at lower elevations. Species in sky islands face unsuitable climate in the intervening valleys when moving from one montane area to another. The high elevation shola-grassland mosaic in the Western Ghats of southern India form one such sky island complex. The fragmented patches make this area ideal to study the effect of the spatial orientation of suitable habitat patches on population genetic structure of species found in these areas. Past studies have suggested that sky islands tend to have genetically structured populations, possibly due to reduced gene flow between montane areas. To test this hypothesis, we adopted the comparative approach. Using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, we compared population genetic structures of two closely related, similar sized butterfly species: Heteropsis oculus, a high elevation shola-grassland specialist restricted to the southern Western Ghats, and Mycalesis patnia, found more continuously distributed in lower elevations. In all analyses, as per expectation the sky island specialist H. oculus exhibited a greater degree of population genetic structure than M. patnia, implying a difference in geneflow. This difference in geneflow in turn appears to be due to the natural fragmentation of the sky island complexes. Detailed analysis of a subset of H. oculus samples from one sky island complex (the Anamalais) showed a surprising genetic break. A possible reason for this break could be unsuitable conditions of higher temperature and lower rainfall in the intervening valley region. Thus, sky island species are not only restricted by lack of habitat continuity between montane areas, but also by the nature of the intervening habitat.

The problem of clear air turbulence: Changing perspectives in the understanding of the phenomenon

Due to rapid improvements in on-board instrumentation and atmospheric observation systems, in most cases, aircraft are able to steer clear of regions of adverse weather. However, they still encounter unexpected bumpy flight conditions in regions away from storms and clouds. This is the phenomenon of clear air turbulence (CAT), which has been a challenge to our understanding as well as efforts at prediction. While most of such cases result in mild discomfort, a few cases can be violent leading to serious injuries to passengers and damage to the aircraft. The underlying physical mechanisms have been sought to be explained in terms of fluid dynamic instabilities and waves in the atmosphere. The main mechanisms which have been proposed are: (i) Kelvin-Helmholtz instability of shear layers, (ii) waves generated from flow over mountains, (iii) inertia-gravity waves from clouds and other sources, (iv) spontaneous imbalance theory and (v) horizontal vortex tubes. This has also undergone a change over the years. We present an overview of the mechanisms proposed and their implications for prediction.

Role of orography in modulating space-time scales of convection over South Asia

Propagation of convective systems in the meridional direction during boreal summer is responsible for active and break phases of monsoon over south Asia. This region is unique in the world in its characteristics of monsoon variability and is in close proximity of mountains like the Himalayas. Here, using an atmospheric general circulation model, we try to understand the role of orography in determining spatial and temporal scales of these convective systems. Absence of orography (noGlOrog) decreased the simulated seasonal mean precipitation over India by 23 % due to delay in onset by about a month vis-a-vis the full-mountain case. In noGlOrog, poleward propagations were absent during the delayed period prior to onset. Post-onset, both simulations had similar patterns of poleward propagations. The spatial and temporal scales of propagating clouds bands were determined using wavelet analysis. These scales were found to be different in full-mountain and no-mountain experiments in June-July. However, after the onset of monsoon in noGlOrog, these scales become similar to that with orography. Simulations with two different sets of convection schemes confirmed this result. Further analysis shows that the absence (presence) of meridional propagations during early (late) phase of summer monsoon in noGlOrog was associated with weaker (stronger) vertical shear of zonal wind over south Asia. Our study shows that orography plays a major role in determining the time of onset over the Indian region. However, after onset, basic characteristics of propagating convective systems and therefore the monthly precipitation over India, are less sensitive to the presence of orography and are modulated by moist convective processes.

Surface motions and intraplate continental deformation in Alaska driven by mantle flow

The degree to which the lithosphere and mantle are coupled and contribute to surface deformation beneath continental regions remains a fundamental question in the field of geodynamics. Here we use a new approach with a surface deformation field constrained by GPS, geologic, and seismicity data, together with a lithospheric geodynamic model, to solve for tractions inferred to be generated by mantle convection that (1) drive extension within interior Alaska generating southward directed surface motions toward the southern convergent plate boundary, (2) result in accommodation of the relative motions between the Pacific and North America in a comparatively small zone near the plate boundary, and (3) generate the observed convergence within the North American plate interior in the Mackenzie mountains in northwestern Canada. The evidence for deeper mantle influence on surface deformation beneath a continental region suggests that this mechanism may be an important contributing driver to continental plate assemblage and breakup.

Bronze and iron weapons from Luristan

The 30,000 km2 province of Luristan is situated in western Iran and encompasses the upper valleys of the Zagros Mountains. Even today, local tribesmen inhabit Luristan with their settlement patterns similar to ancient times. Several scientific excavations in the Luristan region have uncovered evidence that this particular region was a major attraction for human settlements from the Paleolithic era onwards. In Ancient Iran, the existence of rich mines together with discoveries made by innovative and inventive artisans spurred the growth of the metalworking culture as an art and a skill among early human communities in Ancient Iran. The art of Luristan can be described as the art of nomadic herdsmen and horsemen with an emphasis on the crafting of small, easily portable objects, among these a number of bronze daggers, swords and other weapons. Throughout its history, Luristan was never an ethnic or political entity because Luristan has been occupied by various tribes and races, throughout its history. Next to Elamites, other tribes who inhabited Luristan were the Hurrians, Lullubians, Kutians, and Kassites. As local tribesmen of Luristan were illiterate, information about their history can only be partially reconstructed from the literature of their southern neighbors: the Elamites and Babylonians. Luristan smiths made weapons for both civilizations. The region was later invaded by Assyrians and finally the Iranians settled the area and absorbed the local tribes. Following an accidental find by the local inhabitants in Luristan in 1928 CE, a number of unlawful diggings reveal a number of metal objects made of bronze and iron that showed a high level of craftsmanship. These objects were offered for sale on the art market with fancy names to hide their origin. The subsequent scientific excavations several decades after the initial discovery provided fascinating information about the culture of Luristan. The metalworking art of Luristan spans a time period from the third millennium BC to the Iron Age. The artifacts from Luristan seem to possess many unique and distinctive qualities, and are especially noteworthy for the apparently endless, intricate diversity and detail that they characteristically depict. The bronze artifacts found in or attributed to Luristan can be each be classed under five separate heads: a) arms and armor, including swords, dirks, daggers, axes, mace heads, spearheads, shields, quiver plaques, protective bronze girdles, helmets; b) implements related to horsemanship, including decorative or ornamental objects for horses as well as bits and snaffles; c) items for personal adornment and hygiene, including anklets, bangles, bracelets, finger rings, earrings and tweezers; d) ceremonial and ritual objects, including talismans, idols, pins, anthropomorphic and zoomorphic figurines; and e) utilitarian objects comprising various vessels and tools, including beakers, bowls and jugs. The scope of this article is limited to a discussion of the bronze and iron weapons made in Luristan. The techniques used for making bronze weapons in Luristan included: casting with open molds, casting with close molds, and casting with lost wax process. For metal sheets used for quiver plaques and bronze protective belts, the hammering technique was used. Edged weapons made in Luristan can be classified into: a) daggers, dirks, and swords with tangs; b) daggers, dirks, and swords with flanges; and c) daggers, dirks, and swords with cast-on hilts. Next to bronze, iron was also used for making weapons such as the characteristic weapon from this area, the iron mask sword.

La implicación del estudiante con la escuela

[Es]El objetivo de esta investigación ha sido analizar la implicación o compromiso de nuestros estudiantes con sus centros escolares. La implicación posee un componente conductual (la participación) y un componente psicológico (la identificación con el centro escolar). La muestra está compuesta por 656 alumnos de 14 colegios del País Vasco y Cataluña, divididos según diferentes tipologías de centro: 179 en pública-primaria, 151 alumnos en concertada-primaria, 203 alumnos en pública¬-secundaria y 123 alumnos en concertada-secundaria. Los resultados indican que las percepciones en las escalas de participación e identificación son más altas en los centros concertados, de primaria y con una sola línea educativa y modelo lingüístico. Así mismo hemos comprobado que existen correlaciones entre las dos dimensiones de la implicación y las variables independientes analizadas: autoconcepto y motivación académica, tipología de centro, trabajo de los profesores y el entorno familiar.

A Remarkable new fern from Panama

Toward the last of February, 1911, in the course of fieldwork connected with the Smithsonian Biological Survey of the Panama Canal Zone, I accompanied Mr. Henry Pittier from the Canal Zone, where our work had been carried on up to that time, to Chiriqui, the westernmost province of Panama, and spent nearly all of March in collecting plants--mainly ferns and lower cryptogams--in the mountains north of David, the principal city of the province...(Document contains 10 pages)

New mammals from eastern Panama

During the early part of the present year I was again detailed from the Biological Survey, U. S. Department of Agriculture to field work in connection with the Smithsonian Biological Survey of the Panama Canal Zone. Additional collections of mammals and birds were made in January and February in the Canal Zone. From the latter part of February to near the end of June work was carried on in eastern Panama to determine the faunal relation of the region to the Canal Zone and the better known areas to the westward and northward. The work was centered in the Pirri range of mountains which rises to a height of over 5,000 feet near the Colombian boundary southeast of San Miguel Bay...(Document contains 20 pages)