Multinomial goodness-of-fit: large sample tests with survey design correction and exact tests for small samples

I introduce the new mgof command to compute distributional tests for discrete (categorical, multinomial) variables. The command supports largesample tests for complex survey designs and exact tests for small samples as well as classic large-sample x2-approximation tests based on Pearson’s X2, the likelihood ratio, or any other statistic from the power-divergence family (Cressie and Read, 1984, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Methodological) 46: 440–464). The complex survey correction is based on the approach by Rao and Scott (1981, Journal of the American Statistical Association 76: 221–230) and parallels the survey design correction used for independence tests in svy: tabulate. mgof computes the exact tests by using Monte Carlo methods or exhaustive enumeration. mgof also provides an exact one-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for discrete data.

A large animal model of spinal muscular atrophy and correction of phenotype.

OBJECTIVES Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is caused by reduced levels of survival motor neuron (SMN) protein, which results in motoneuron loss. Therapeutic strategies to increase SMN levels including drug compounds, antisense oligonucleotides, and scAAV9 gene therapy have proved effective in mice. We wished to determine whether reduction of SMN in postnatal motoneurons resulted in SMA in a large animal model, whether SMA could be corrected after development of muscle weakness, and the response of clinically relevant biomarkers. METHODS Using intrathecal delivery of scAAV9 expressing an shRNA targeting pig SMN1, SMN was knocked down in motoneurons postnatally to SMA levels. This resulted in an SMA phenotype representing the first large animal model of SMA. Restoration of SMN was performed at different time points with scAAV9 expressing human SMN (scAAV9-SMN), and electrophysiology measurements and pathology were performed. RESULTS Knockdown of SMN in postnatal motoneurons results in overt proximal weakness, fibrillations on electromyography indicating active denervation, and reduced compound muscle action potential (CMAP) and motor unit number estimation (MUNE), as in human SMA. Neuropathology showed loss of motoneurons and motor axons. Presymptomatic delivery of scAAV9-SMN prevented SMA symptoms, indicating that all changes are SMN dependent. Delivery of scAAV9-SMN after symptom onset had a marked impact on phenotype, electrophysiological measures, and pathology. INTERPRETATION High SMN levels are critical in postnatal motoneurons, and reduction of SMN results in an SMA phenotype that is SMN dependent. Importantly, clinically relevant biomarkers including CMAP and MUNE are responsive to SMN restoration, and abrogation of phenotype can be achieved even after symptom onset.

Fully Adaptive Newton--Galerkin Methods for Semilinear Elliptic Partial Differential Equations

In this paper we develop an adaptive procedure for the numerical solution of general, semilinear elliptic problems with possible singular perturbations. Our approach combines both prediction-type adaptive Newton methods and a linear adaptive finite element discretization (based on a robust a posteriori error analysis), thereby leading to a fully adaptive Newton–Galerkin scheme. Numerical experiments underline the robustness and reliability of the proposed approach for various examples

Electrocardiographic characteristics of patients with funnel chest before and after surgical correction using pectus bar: A new association with precordial J wave pattern.

OBJECTIVE Abnormal ECG findings suggestive of cardiac disease are frequent in patients with funnel chest, although structural heart disease is rare. Electrocardiographic characteristics and changes following new surgical treatments in young adults are not described so far. The aim of the study was to analyze electrocardiographic characteristics of patients with funnel chest before and after minimally invasive funnel chest correction by the Nuss procedure. METHODS Twenty-six patients with surgical correction of funnel chest using pectus bar were included. Twelve-lead ECGs before and later than one year after surgery were analyzed. RESULTS In postoperative ECGs, amplitude of P wave in lead II and negative terminal amplitude of P wave in lead V1 decreased from 0.13 to 0.10mV (p=0.03), and from 0.10 to 0.04mV (p<0.001), respectively. Mean QRS duration decreased from 108ms to 98ms (p=0.003) after correction. A pathological left and right Sokolow-Lyon index was observed in 35% and 23% of patients before, versus 8% (p=0.04) and 0% (p=0.01) after correction, respectively. In contrast, the rate of patients with J wave pattern in precordial leads V4-V6 increased from 8% before to 42% after surgery (p=0.004). CONCLUSIONS ECG abnormalities in patients with funnel chest are frequent, and can normalize after surgical correction by the Nuss procedure. De novo J wave pattern in precordial leads V4-V6 is a frequent finding after surgical funnel chest correction using pectus bar.

Second, do less harm: The state of states' medical error reporting programs

Statement of the problem and public health significance. Hospitals were designed to be a safe haven and respite from disease and illness. However, a large body of evidence points to preventable errors in hospitals as the eighth leading cause of death among Americans. Twelve percent of Americans, or over 33.8 million people, are hospitalized each year. This population represents a significant portion of at risk citizens exposed to hospital medical errors. Since the number of annual deaths due to hospital medical errors is estimated to exceed 44,000, the magnitude of this tragedy makes it a significant public health problem. ^ Specific aims. The specific aims of this study were threefold. First, this study aimed to analyze the state of the states' mandatory hospital medical error reporting six years after the release of the influential IOM report, "To Err is Human." The second aim was to identify barriers to reporting of medical errors by hospital personnel. The third aim was to identify hospital safety measures implemented to reduce medical errors and enhance patient safety. ^ Methods. A descriptive, longitudinal, retrospective design was used to address the first stated objective. The study data came from the twenty-one states with mandatory hospital reporting programs which report aggregate hospital error data that is accessible to the public by way of states' websites. The data analysis included calculations of expected number of medical errors for each state according to IOM rates. Where possible, a comparison was made between state reported data and the calculated IOM expected number of errors. A literature review was performed to achieve the second study aim, identifying barriers to reporting medical errors. The final aim was accomplished by telephone interviews of principal patient safety/quality officers from five Texas hospitals with more than 700 beds. ^ Results. The state medical error data suggests vast underreporting of hospital medical errors to the states. The telephone interviews suggest that hospitals are working at reducing medical errors and creating safer environments for patients. The literature review suggests the underreporting of medical errors at the state level stems from underreporting of errors at the delivery level. ^

Nursing-related medication errors: A review of factors that facilitate and hinder error reporting, and recommendations for improvement

Medication errors, one of the most frequent types of medical errors, are a common cause of patient harm in hospital systems today. Nurses at the bedside are in a position to encounter many of these errors since they are there at the start of the process (ordering/prescribing) and the end of the process (administration). One of the recommendations from the IOM (Institute of Medicine) report, "To Err is Human," was for organizations to identify and learn from medical errors through event reporting systems. While many organizations have reporting systems in place, research studies report a significant amount of underreporting by nurses. A systematic review of the literature was performed to identify contributing factors related to the reporting and not reporting of medication errors by nurses at the bedside.^ Articles included in the literature review were primary or secondary studies, dated January 1, 2000 – July 2009, related to nursing medication error reporting. All 634 articles were reviewed with an algorithm developed to standardize the review process and help filter out those that did not meet the study criteria. In addition, 142 article bibliographies were reviewed to find additional studies that were not found in the original literature search.^ After reviewing the 634 articles and the additional 108 articles discovered in the bibliography review, 41 articles met the study criteria and were used in the systematic literature review results.^ Fear of punitive reactions to medication errors was a frequent barrier to error reporting. Nurses fear reactions from their leadership, peers, patients and their families, nursing boards, and the media. Anonymous reporting systems and departments/organizations with a strong safety culture in place helped to encourage the reporting of medication errors by nursing staff.^ Many of the studies included in this literature review do not allow results that can be generalized. The majority of them took place in single institutions/organizations with limited sample sizes. Stronger studies with larger sample sizes need to be performed, utilizing data collection methods that have been validated, to determine stronger correlations between safety cultures and nurse error reporting.^

Evaluation of risk factors for long term changes in refractive error among adult patients at a Dallas Texas private setting A retrospective chart-review study

Background. Over 39.9% of the adult population forty or older in the United States has refractive error, little is known about the etiology of this condition and associated risk factors and their entailed mechanism due to the paucity of data regarding the changes of refractive error for the adult population over time.^ Aim. To evaluate risk factors over a long term, 5-year period, in refractive error changes among persons 43 or older by testing the hypothesis that age, gender, systemic diseases, nuclear sclerosis and baseline refractive errors are all significantly associated with refractive errors changes in patients at a Dallas, Texas private optometric office.^ Methods. A retrospective chart review of subjective refraction, eye health, and self-report health history was done on patients at a private optometric office who were 43 or older in 2000 who had eye examinations both in 2000 and 2005. Aphakic and pseudophakic eyes were excluded as well as eyes with best corrected Snellen visual acuity of 20/40 and worse. After exclusions, refraction was obtained on 114 right eyes and 114 left eyes. Spherical equivalent (sum of sphere + ½ cylinder) was used as the measure of refractive error.^ Results. Similar changes in refractive error were observed for the two eyes. The 5-year change in spherical power was in a hyperopic direction for younger age groups and in a myopic direction for older subjects, P<0.0001. The gender-adjusted mean change in refractive error in right eyes of persons aged 43 to 54, 55 to 64, 65 to 74, and 75 or older at baseline was +0.43D, +0.46 D, -0.09 D, and -0.23D, respectively. Refractive change was strongly related to baseline nuclear cataract severity; grades 4 to 5 were associated with a myopic shift (-0.38 D, P< 0.0001). The mean age-adjusted change in refraction was +0.27 D for hyperopic eyes, +0.56 D for emmetropic eyes, and +0.26 D for myopic eyes.^ Conclusions. This report has documented refractive error changes in an older population and confirmed reported trends of a hyperopic shift before age 65 and a myopic shift thereafter associated with the development of nuclear cataract.^

New methods for quantification and analysis of quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction data

Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) is a sensitive gene quantitation method that has been widely used in the biological and biomedical fields. The currently used methods for PCR data analysis, including the threshold cycle (CT) method, linear and non-linear model fitting methods, all require subtracting background fluorescence. However, the removal of background fluorescence is usually inaccurate, and therefore can distort results. Here, we propose a new method, the taking-difference linear regression method, to overcome this limitation. Briefly, for each two consecutive PCR cycles, we subtracted the fluorescence in the former cycle from that in the later cycle, transforming the n cycle raw data into n-1 cycle data. Then linear regression was applied to the natural logarithm of the transformed data. Finally, amplification efficiencies and the initial DNA molecular numbers were calculated for each PCR run. To evaluate this new method, we compared it in terms of accuracy and precision with the original linear regression method with three background corrections, being the mean of cycles 1-3, the mean of cycles 3-7, and the minimum. Three criteria, including threshold identification, max R2, and max slope, were employed to search for target data points. Considering that PCR data are time series data, we also applied linear mixed models. Collectively, when the threshold identification criterion was applied and when the linear mixed model was adopted, the taking-difference linear regression method was superior as it gave an accurate estimation of initial DNA amount and a reasonable estimation of PCR amplification efficiencies. When the criteria of max R2 and max slope were used, the original linear regression method gave an accurate estimation of initial DNA amount. Overall, the taking-difference linear regression method avoids the error in subtracting an unknown background and thus it is theoretically more accurate and reliable. This method is easy to perform and the taking-difference strategy can be extended to all current methods for qPCR data analysis.^

Mg/Ca ratios in planktonic foraminifera

The primary Mg/Ca ratio of foraminiferal shells is a potentially valuable paleoproxy for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions. However, the reliable extraction of this ratio from sedimentary calcite assumes that we can overcome artifacts related to foraminiferal ecology and partial dissolution, as well as contamination by secondary calcite and clay. The standard batch method for Mg/Ca analysis involves cracking, sonicating, and rinsing the tests to remove clay, followed by chemical cleaning, and finally acid-digestion and single-point measurement. This laborious procedure often results in substantial loss of sample (typically 30-60%). We find that even the earliest steps of this procedure can fractionate Mg from Ca, thus biasing the result toward a more variable and often anomalously low Mg/Ca ratio. Moreover, the more rigorous the cleaning, the more calcite is lost, and the more likely it becomes that any residual clay that has not been removed by physical cleaning will increase the ratio. These potentially significant sources of error can be overcome with a flow-through (FT) sequential leaching method that makes time- and labor-intensive pretreatments unnecessary. When combined with time-resolved analysis (FT-TRA) flow-through, performed with a gradually increasing and highly regulated acid strength, produces continuous records of Mg, Sr, Al, and Ca concentrations in the leachate sorted by dissolution susceptibility of the reacting material. Flow-through separates secondary calcite from less susceptible biogenic calcite and clay, and further resolves the biogenic component into primary and more resistant fractions. FT-TRA reliably separates secondary calcite (which is not representative of original life habitats) from the more resistant biogenic calcite (the desired signal) and clay (a contaminant of high Mg/Ca, which also contains Al), and further resolves the biogenic component into primary and more resistant fractions that may reflect habitat or other changes during ontogeny. We find that the most susceptible fraction of biogenic calcite in surface dwelling foraminifera gives the most accurate value for SST and therefore best represents primary calcite. Sequential dissolution curves can be used to correct the primary Mg/Ca ratio for clay, if necessary. However, the temporal separation of calcite from clay in FT-TRA is so complete that this correction is typically <=2%, even in clay-rich sediments. Unlike hands-on batch methods, that are difficult to reproduce exactly, flow-through lends itself to automation, providing precise replication of treatment for every sample. Our automated flow-through system can process 22 samples, two system blanks, and 48 mixed standards in <12 hours of unattended operation. FT-TRA thus represents a faster, cheaper, and better way to determine Mg/Ca ratios in foraminiferal calcite.

Measurements of stable carbon isotope ratios of CO2 over the last 24000 years and CO2 concentration measurements on Antarctic ice cores using three different methods

The stable carbon isotope ratio of atmospheric CO2 (d13Catm) is a key parameter in deciphering past carbon cycle changes. Here we present d13Catm data for the past 24,000 years derived from three independent records from two Antarctic ice cores. We conclude that a pronounced 0.3 per mil decrease in d13Catm during the early deglaciation can be best explained by upwelling of old, carbon-enriched waters in the Southern Ocean. Later in the deglaciation, regrowth of the terrestrial biosphere, changes in sea surface temperature, and ocean circulation governed the d13Catm evolution. During the Last Glacial Maximum, d13Catm and atmospheric CO2 concentration were essentially constant, which suggests that the carbon cycle was in dynamic equilibrium and that the net transfer of carbon to the deep ocean had occurred before then.

(Appendix 1-4) Geochemistry, desorption methods, TOC, TC, and mineral content of different settings

Sorption of volatile hydrocarbon gases (VHCs) to marine sediments is a recognized phenomenon that has been investigated in the context of petroleum exploration. However, little is known about the biogeochemistry of sorbed methane and higher VHCs in environments that are not influenced by thermogenic processes. This study evaluated two different extraction protocols for sorbed VHCs, used high pressure equipment to investigate the sorption of methane to pure clay mineral phases, and conducted a geochemical and mineralogical survey of sediment samples from different oceanographic settings and geochemical regimes that are not significantly influenced by thermogenic gas. Extraction of sediments under alkaline conditions yielded higher concentrations of sorbed methane than the established protocol for acidic extraction. Application of alkaline extraction in the environmental survey revealed the presence of substantial amounts of sorbed methane in 374 out of 411 samples (91%). Particularly high amounts, up to 2.1 mmol kg**-1 dry sediment, were recovered from methanogenic sediments. Carbon isotopic compositions of sorbed methane suggested substantial contributions from biogenic sources, both in sulfate-depleted and sulfate-reducing sediments. Carbon isotopic relationships between sorbed and dissolved methane indicate a coupling of the two pools. While our sorption experiments and extraction conditions point to an important role for clay minerals as sorbents, mineralogical analyses of marine sediments suggest that variations in mineral composition are not controlling variations in quantities of sorbed methane. We conclude that the distribution of sorbed methane in sediments is strongly influenced by in situ production.

Fast Correction of Tiled Display Systems on Planar Surfaces

A method for fast colour and geometric correction of a tiled display system is presented in this paper. Such kind of displays are a common choice for virtual reality applications and simulators, where a high resolution image is required. They are the cheapest and more flexible alternative for large image generation but they require a precise geometric and colour correction. The purpose of the proposed method is to correct the projection system as fast as possible so in case the system needs to be recalibrated it doesn’t interfere with the normal operation of the simulator or virtual reality application. This technique makes use of a single conventional webcam for both geometric and photometric correction. Some previous assumptions are made, like planar projection surface and negligibleintra-projector colour variation and black-offset levels. If these assumptions hold true, geometric and photometric seamlessness can be achievedfor this kind of display systems. The method described in this paper is scalable for an undefined number of projectors and completely automatic.

Numerical Error Prediction and its applications in CFD using tau-estimation

Nowadays, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers are widely used within the industry to model fluid flow phenomenons. Several fluid flow model equations have been employed in the last decades to simulate and predict forces acting, for example, on different aircraft configurations. Computational time and accuracy are strongly dependent on the fluid flow model equation and the spatial dimension of the problem considered. While simple models based on perfect flows, like panel methods or potential flow models can be very fast to solve, they usually suffer from a poor accuracy in order to simulate real flows (transonic, viscous). On the other hand, more complex models such as the full Navier- Stokes equations provide high fidelity predictions but at a much higher computational cost. Thus, a good compromise between accuracy and computational time has to be fixed for engineering applications. A discretisation technique widely used within the industry is the so-called Finite Volume approach on unstructured meshes. This technique spatially discretises the flow motion equations onto a set of elements which form a mesh, a discrete representation of the continuous domain. Using this approach, for a given flow model equation, the accuracy and computational time mainly depend on the distribution of nodes forming the mesh. Therefore, a good compromise between accuracy and computational time might be obtained by carefully defining the mesh. However, defining an optimal mesh for complex flows and geometries requires a very high level expertize in fluid mechanics and numerical analysis, and in most cases a simple guess of regions of the computational domain which might affect the most the accuracy is impossible. Thus, it is desirable to have an automatized remeshing tool, which is more flexible with unstructured meshes than its structured counterpart. However, adaptive methods currently in use still have an opened question: how to efficiently drive the adaptation ? Pioneering sensors based on flow features generally suffer from a lack of reliability, so in the last decade more effort has been made in developing numerical error-based sensors, like for instance the adjoint-based adaptation sensors. While very efficient at adapting meshes for a given functional output, the latter method is very expensive as it requires to solve a dual set of equations and computes the sensor on an embedded mesh. Therefore, it would be desirable to develop a more affordable numerical error estimation method. The current work aims at estimating the truncation error, which arises when discretising a partial differential equation. These are the higher order terms neglected in the construction of the numerical scheme. The truncation error provides very useful information as it is strongly related to the flow model equation and its discretisation. On one hand, it is a very reliable measure of the quality of the mesh, therefore very useful in order to drive a mesh adaptation procedure. On the other hand, it is strongly linked to the flow model equation, so that a careful estimation actually gives information on how well a given equation is solved, which may be useful in the context of _ -extrapolation or zonal modelling. The following work is organized as follows: Chap. 1 contains a short review of mesh adaptation techniques as well as numerical error prediction. In the first section, Sec. 1.1, the basic refinement strategies are reviewed and the main contribution to structured and unstructured mesh adaptation are presented. Sec. 1.2 introduces the definitions of errors encountered when solving Computational Fluid Dynamics problems and reviews the most common approaches to predict them. Chap. 2 is devoted to the mathematical formulation of truncation error estimation in the context of finite volume methodology, as well as a complete verification procedure. Several features are studied, such as the influence of grid non-uniformities, non-linearity, boundary conditions and non-converged numerical solutions. This verification part has been submitted and accepted for publication in the Journal of Computational Physics. Chap. 3 presents a mesh adaptation algorithm based on truncation error estimates and compares the results to a feature-based and an adjoint-based sensor (in collaboration with Jorge Ponsín, INTA). Two- and three-dimensional cases relevant for validation in the aeronautical industry are considered. This part has been submitted and accepted in the AIAA Journal. An extension to Reynolds Averaged Navier- Stokes equations is also included, where _ -estimation-based mesh adaptation and _ -extrapolation are applied to viscous wing profiles. The latter has been submitted in the Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering. Keywords: mesh adaptation, numerical error prediction, finite volume Hoy en día, la Dinámica de Fluidos Computacional (CFD) es ampliamente utilizada dentro de la industria para obtener información sobre fenómenos fluidos. La Dinámica de Fluidos Computacional considera distintas modelizaciones de las ecuaciones fluidas (Potencial, Euler, Navier-Stokes, etc) para simular y predecir las fuerzas que actúan, por ejemplo, sobre una configuración de aeronave. El tiempo de cálculo y la precisión en la solución depende en gran medida de los modelos utilizados, así como de la dimensión espacial del problema considerado. Mientras que modelos simples basados en flujos perfectos, como modelos de flujos potenciales, se pueden resolver rápidamente, por lo general aducen de una baja precisión a la hora de simular flujos reales (viscosos, transónicos, etc). Por otro lado, modelos más complejos tales como el conjunto de ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes proporcionan predicciones de alta fidelidad, a expensas de un coste computacional mucho más elevado. Por lo tanto, en términos de aplicaciones de ingeniería se debe fijar un buen compromiso entre precisión y tiempo de cálculo. Una técnica de discretización ampliamente utilizada en la industria es el método de los Volúmenes Finitos en mallas no estructuradas. Esta técnica discretiza espacialmente las ecuaciones del movimiento del flujo sobre un conjunto de elementos que forman una malla, una representación discreta del dominio continuo. Utilizando este enfoque, para una ecuación de flujo dado, la precisión y el tiempo computacional dependen principalmente de la distribución de los nodos que forman la malla. Por consiguiente, un buen compromiso entre precisión y tiempo de cálculo se podría obtener definiendo cuidadosamente la malla, concentrando sus elementos en aquellas zonas donde sea estrictamente necesario. Sin embargo, la definición de una malla óptima para corrientes y geometrías complejas requiere un nivel muy alto de experiencia en la mecánica de fluidos y el análisis numérico, así como un conocimiento previo de la solución. Aspecto que en la mayoría de los casos no está disponible. Por tanto, es deseable tener una herramienta que permita adaptar los elementos de malla de forma automática, acorde a la solución fluida (remallado). Esta herramienta es generalmente más flexible en mallas no estructuradas que con su homóloga estructurada. No obstante, los métodos de adaptación actualmente en uso todavía dejan una pregunta abierta: cómo conducir de manera eficiente la adaptación. Sensores pioneros basados en las características del flujo en general, adolecen de una falta de fiabilidad, por lo que en la última década se han realizado grandes esfuerzos en el desarrollo numérico de sensores basados en el error, como por ejemplo los sensores basados en el adjunto. A pesar de ser muy eficientes en la adaptación de mallas para un determinado funcional, este último método resulta muy costoso, pues requiere resolver un doble conjunto de ecuaciones: la solución y su adjunta. Por tanto, es deseable desarrollar un método numérico de estimación de error más asequible. El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo estimar el error local de truncación, que aparece cuando se discretiza una ecuación en derivadas parciales. Estos son los términos de orden superior olvidados en la construcción del esquema numérico. El error de truncación proporciona una información muy útil sobre la solución: es una medida muy fiable de la calidad de la malla, obteniendo información que permite llevar a cabo un procedimiento de adaptación de malla. Está fuertemente relacionado al modelo matemático fluido, de modo que una estimación precisa garantiza la idoneidad de dicho modelo en un campo fluido, lo que puede ser útil en el contexto de modelado zonal. Por último, permite mejorar la precisión de la solución resolviendo un nuevo sistema donde el error local actúa como término fuente (_ -extrapolación). El presenta trabajo se organiza de la siguiente manera: Cap. 1 contiene una breve reseña de las técnicas de adaptación de malla, así como de los métodos de predicción de los errores numéricos. En la primera sección, Sec. 1.1, se examinan las estrategias básicas de refinamiento y se presenta la principal contribución a la adaptación de malla estructurada y no estructurada. Sec 1.2 introduce las definiciones de los errores encontrados en la resolución de problemas de Dinámica Computacional de Fluidos y se examinan los enfoques más comunes para predecirlos. Cap. 2 está dedicado a la formulación matemática de la estimación del error de truncación en el contexto de la metodología de Volúmenes Finitos, así como a un procedimiento de verificación completo. Se estudian varias características que influyen en su estimación: la influencia de la falta de uniformidad de la malla, el efecto de las no linealidades del modelo matemático, diferentes condiciones de contorno y soluciones numéricas no convergidas. Esta parte de verificación ha sido presentada y aceptada para su publicación en el Journal of Computational Physics. Cap. 3 presenta un algoritmo de adaptación de malla basado en la estimación del error de truncación y compara los resultados con sensores de featured-based y adjointbased (en colaboración con Jorge Ponsín del INTA). Se consideran casos en dos y tres dimensiones, relevantes para la validación en la industria aeronáutica. Este trabajo ha sido presentado y aceptado en el AIAA Journal. También se incluye una extensión de estos métodos a las ecuaciones RANS (Reynolds Average Navier- Stokes), en donde adaptación de malla basada en _ y _ -extrapolación son aplicados a perfiles con viscosidad de alas. Este último trabajo se ha presentado en los Actas de la Institución de Ingenieros Mecánicos, Parte G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering. Palabras clave: adaptación de malla, predicción del error numérico, volúmenes finitos

Use of prediction methods for patent and trademark applications in Spain

Patent and trademark offices which run according to principles of new management have an inherent need for dependable forecasting data in planning capacity and service levels. The ability of the Spanish Office of Patents and Trademarks to carry out efficient planning of its resource needs requires the use of methods which allow it to predict the changes in the number of patent and trademark applications at different time horizons. The approach for the prediction of time series of Spanish patents and trademarks applications (1979e2009) was based on the use of different techniques of time series prediction in a short-term horizon. The methods used can be grouped into two specifics areas: regression models of trends and time series models. The results of this study show that it is possible to model the series of patents and trademarks applications with different models, especially ARIMA, with satisfactory model adjustment and relatively low error.