The valuation accuracy of multiples in mergers and acquisitions, and their association with firm misvaluation

This study explores the accuracy and valuation implications of the application of a comprehensive list of equity multiples in the takeover context. Motivating the study is the prevalent use of equity multiples in practice, the observed long-run underperformance of acquirers following takeovers, and the scarcity of multiplesbased research in the merger and acquisition setting. In exploring the application of equity multiples in this context three research questions are addressed: (1) how accurate are equity multiples (RQ1); which equity multiples are more accurate in valuing the firm (RQ2); and which equity multiples are associated with greater misvaluation of the firm (RQ3). Following a comprehensive review of the extant multiples-based literature it is hypothesised that the accuracy of multiples in estimating stock market prices in the takeover context will rank as follows (from best to worst): (1) forecasted earnings multiples, (2) multiples closer to bottom line earnings, (3) multiples based on Net Cash Flow from Operations (NCFO) and trading revenue. The relative inaccuracies in multiples are expected to flow through to equity misvaluation (as measured by the ratio of estimated market capitalisation to residual income value, or P/V). Accordingly, it is hypothesised that greater overvaluation will be exhibited for multiples based on Trading Revenue, NCFO, Book Value (BV) and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) versus multiples based on bottom line earnings; and that multiples based on Intrinsic Value will display the least overvaluation. The hypotheses are tested using a sample of 147 acquirers and 129 targets involved in Australian takeover transactions announced between 1990 and 2005. The results show that first, the majority of computed multiples examined exhibit valuation errors within 30 percent of stock market values. Second, and consistent with expectations, the results provide support for the superiority of multiples based on forecasted earnings in valuing targets and acquirers engaged in takeover transactions. Although a gradual improvement in estimating stock market values is not entirely evident when moving down the Income Statement, historical earnings multiples perform better than multiples based on Trading Revenue or NCFO. Third, while multiples based on forecasted earnings have the highest valuation accuracy they, along with Trading Revenue multiples for targets, produce the most overvalued valuations for acquirers and targets. Consistent with predictions, greater overvaluation is exhibited for multiples based on Trading Revenue for targets, and NCFO and EBITDA for both acquirers and targets. Finally, as expected, multiples based Intrinsic Value (along with BV) are associated with the least overvaluation. Given the widespread usage of valuation multiples in takeover contexts these findings offer a unique insight into their relative effectiveness. Importantly, the findings add to the growing body of valuation accuracy literature, especially within Australia, and should assist market participants to better understand the relative accuracy and misvaluation consequences of various equity multiples used in takeover documentation and assist them in subsequent investment decision making.

Experiences of regional and rural people with cancer being treated with radiotherapy in a metropolitan centre

This paper explores the issues related to rural people with cancer whose choice of radiotherapy treatment necessitated travel and accommodation in a metropolitan centre. Semi-structured interviews with 46 participants, from the Toowoomba and Darling Downs region of Queensland, Australia, were conducted and the data thematically analysed. The specific themes identified were: being away from loved ones, maintaining responsibilities whilst undergoing treatment, emotional stress, burden on significant others, choice about radiotherapy as a treatment, travel and accommodation, and financial burden. This study supports the need for a radiotherapy centre in the location of Toowoomba as a way of providing some equity and access to such treatment for the rural people of Queensland.

Hepatitis C, mental health and equity of access to antiviral therapy : a systematic narrative review

Introduction Access to hepatitis C (hereafter HCV) antiviral therapy has commonly excluded populations with mental health and substance use disorders because they were considered as having contraindications to treatment, particularly due to the neuropsychiatric effects of interferon that can occur in some patients. In this review we examined access to HCV interferon antiviral therapy by populations with mental health and substance use problems to identify the evidence and reasons for exclusion. Methods We searched the following major electronic databases for relevant articles: PsycINFO, Medline, CINAHL, Scopus, Google Scholar. The inclusion criteria comprised studies of adults aged 18 years and older, peer-reviewed articles, date range of (2002--2012) to include articles since the introduction of pegylated interferon with ribarvirin, and English language. The exclusion criteria included articles about HCV populations with medical co-morbidities, such as hepatitis B (hereafter HBV) and human immunodeficiency virus (hereafter HIV), because the clinical treatment, pathways and psychosocial morbidity differ from populations with only HCV. We identified 182 articles, and of these 13 met the eligibility criteria. Using an approach of systematic narrative review we identified major themes in the literature. Results Three main themes were identified including: (1) pre-treatment and preparation for antiviral therapy, (2) adherence and treatment completion, and (3) clinical outcomes. Each of these themes was critically discussed in terms of access by patients with mental health and substance use co-morbidities demonstrating that current research evidence clearly demonstrates that people with HCV, mental health and substance use co-morbidities have similar clinical outcomes to those without these co-morbidities. Conclusions While research evidence is largely supportive of increased access to interferon by people with HCV, mental health and substance use co-morbidities, there is substantial further work required to translate evidence into clinical practice. Further to this, we conclude that a reconsideration of the appropriateness of the tertiary health service model of care for interferon management is required and exploration of the potential for increased HCV care in primary health care settings.

Estimation of disability weights on malignant neoplasms in Shandong province [山东省现患恶性肿瘤残疾权重的测量]

Objective To determine stage-specific and average disability weights (DWs) of malignant neoplasm and provide support and evidence for study on burden of cancer and policy development in Shandong province. Methods Health status of each cancer patient identified during the cancer prevalence survey in Shandong, 2007 was investigated. In line with the GBD methodology in estimating DWs, the disability extent of every case was classified and evaluated according to the Six-class Disability Classification version and then the stage-specific weights and average DWs with their 95 % confidence intervals were calculated, using SAS software. Results A total of 11 757 cancer cases were investigated and evaluated. DWs of specific stage of therapy, remission, metastasis and terminal of all cancers were 0.310, 0.218, 0.450 and 0.653 respectively. The average DW of all cancers was 0.317(95 % CI:0.312-0.321). Weights of different stage and different cancer varied significantly, while no significant differences were found between males and females. DWs were found higher (>0.4) for liver cancer, bone cancer, lymphoma and pancreas cancer. Lower DWs (<0.3) were found for breast cancer, cervix uteri, corpus uteri, ovarian cancer, larynx cancer, mouth and oropharynx cancer. Conclusion Stage-specific and average DWs for various cancers were estimated based on a large sample size survey. The average DWs of 0.317 for all cancers indicated that 1/3 healthy year lost for each survived life year of them. The difference of DWs between different cancer and stage provide scientific evidence for cancer prevention strategy development. Abstract in Chinese 目的 测算各种恶性肿瘤的分病程残疾权重和平均残疾权重,为山东省恶性肿瘤疾病负担研究及肿瘤防治对策制定提供参考依据. 方法 在山东省2007年恶性肿瘤现患调查中对所有恶性肿瘤患者的健康状况进行调查,参考全球疾病负担研究的方法 ,利用六级社会功能分级标准对患者残疾状况进行分级和赋值,分别计算20种恶性肿瘤的分病程残疾权重和平均残疾权重及其95%CI. 结果 共调查恶性肿瘤患者11757例,所有恶性肿瘤治疗期、恢复期、转移期和晚期的残疾权重分别为0.310、0.218、0.450和0.653,平均残疾权重为0.317(95%CI:0.312～0.321).不同恶性肿瘤和不同病程阶段的残疾权重差别显著,性别间差异无统计学意义.肝癌、骨癌、淋巴瘤和胰腺癌平均残疾权重较高(>0.4),乳腺癌、子宫体癌、子宫颈癌、卵巢癌、喉癌和口咽部癌症相对较低(<0.3). 结论 山东省恶性肿瘤平均残疾权重为0.317,即恶性肿瘤患者每存活1年平均损失近1/3个健康生命年;不同恶性肿瘤和不同病程阶段的残疾权重差别为肿瘤防治对策的制定具有重要意义.

Monitoring style drift : evidence from U.S. Equity funds

This thesis examines the stewardship and investment style monitoring by managers and boards of U.S. equity funds. Results indicate that complying with a fund’s declared style, especially in value-growth dimension, remains a challenge for fund managers and boards, and that style-based investors should be aware of the risk of style drift since fund managers and boards do not always monitor the fund’s investment style as stated in the prospectus. Results also show that the quality of fund stewardship, as reflected by fund board quality, corporate culture, manager compensation, regulatory history, and fees are effective in ensuring that fund managers and boards perform their fiduciary obligation by increasing monitoring of the fund investment style.

What is an expert? A systems perspective on expertise

1. Expert knowledge continues to gain recognition as a valuable source of information in a wide range of research applications. Despite recent advances in defining expert knowledge, comparatively little attention has been given to how to view expertise as a system of interacting contributory factors, and thereby, to quantify an individual’s expertise. 2. We present a systems approach to describing expertise that accounts for many contributing factors and their interrelationships, and allows quantification of an individual’s expertise. A Bayesian network (BN) was chosen for this purpose. For the purpose of illustration, we focused on taxonomic expertise. The model structure was developed in consultation with professional taxonomists. The relative importance of the factors within the network were determined by a second set of senior taxonomists. This second set of experts (i.e. supra-experts) also provided validation of the model structure. Model performance was then assessed by applying the model to hypothetical career states in the discipline of taxonomy. Hypothetical career states were used to incorporate the greatest possible differences in career states and provide an opportunity to test the model against known inputs. 3. The resulting BN model consisted of 18 primary nodes feeding through one to three higher-order nodes before converging on the target node (Taxonomic Expert). There was strong consistency among node weights provided by the supra-experts for some nodes, but not others. The higher order nodes, “Quality of work” and “Total productivity”, had the greatest weights. Sensitivity analysis indicated that although some factors had stronger influence in the outer nodes of the network, there was relatively equal influence of the factors leading directly into the target node. Despite differences in the node weights provided by our supra-experts, there was remarkably good agreement among assessments of our hypothetical experts that accurately reflected differences we had built into them. 4. This systems approach provides a novel way of assessing the overall level of expertise of individuals, accounting for multiple contributory factors, and their interactions. Our approach is adaptable to other situations where it is desirable to understand components of expertise.

“Which child left behind” : historical issues regarding equity in science assessment

Assessment of learning plays a dominant role in formal education in the forms of determining features of curriculum that are emphasized, pedagogic methods that teachers use with their students, and parents’ and employers’ understanding of how well students have performed. A common perception is that fair assessment applies the same mode of assessment and content focus for all students—the approach of assessments in international comparative studies of science achievement. This article examines research evidence demonstrating that the act of assessment is not neutral—different forms of assessment advantage or disadvantage groups of students on the basis of family backgrounds, gender, race, or disability. Assessment that implicitly or explicitly captures the social capital of the child serves to consolidate, not address, educational equity. The article provides an overview of ways that science curriculum focus and assessment can introduce bias in the identification of student achievement. It examines the effect of changes to curriculum and assessment approaches in science, and relationships between assessment of science and the cultural context of the student. Recommendations are provided for science–assessment research to address bias for different groups of students.

Volatility timing : how best to forecast portfolio exposures

This paper investigates how best to forecast optimal portfolio weights in the context of a volatility timing strategy. It measures the economic value of a number of methods for forming optimal portfolios on the basis of realized volatility. These include the traditional econometric approach of forming portfolios from forecasts of the covariance matrix, and a novel method, where a time series of optimal portfolio weights are constructed from observed realized volatility and directly forecast. The approach proposed here of directly forecasting portfolio weights shows a great deal of merit. Resulting portfolios are of equivalent economic benefit to a number of competing approaches and are more stable across time. These findings have obvious implications for the manner in which volatility timing is undertaken in a portfolio allocation context.

Lexis Nexis Questions and Answers : Equity and Trusts [4th Ed.]

"LexisNexis Questions and Answers: Equity and Trusts provides students with a clear and systematic approach to successfully analysing and answering assessment questions on equity and trusts. Each chapter commences with a discussion of key principles and issues including a summary of relevant leading cases and legislation for effective revision. Examples of written questions with fact scenarios follow, each with a suggested answer plan, sample answer and comments on how the answer might be viewed by an examiner. Readers are provided with advice on common errors to avoid when answering questions and practical hints and tips on how to achieve higher marks. Features • Summary of key issues helps students revise key areas before attempting problem questions • Sample questions with model answers assist students with effective exam study preparation"--publisher website

Investigating attitudes towards three South American destinations in an emerging long haul market using a model of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE)

Despite the importance of destination image in market competitiveness, and the popularity of the field within tourism literature, there remains a dearth of published research examining travellers’ perceptions of destinations in South America. This manuscript addresses this gap by testing a model of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) associated with three South American countries; Chile, Brazil and Argentina. The introduction of direct air links and a free trade agreement in 2008 has led destination marketing organisations (DMOs) in these countries to increase promotional efforts in the Australian market. This study shows that the CBBE model is an appropriate tool to explore consumers’ attitudes in the long haul travel context. The findings provide DMOs of the three countries studied, with benchmarks against which to compare the impact of future marketing communications in Australia. The results provide increased transparency and accountability to stakeholders, such as South American tourism businesses and Australian travel intermediaries.

Document ranking with quantum probabilities

In this thesis we investigate the use of quantum probability theory for ranking documents. Quantum probability theory is used to estimate the probability of relevance of a document given a user's query. We posit that quantum probability theory can lead to a better estimation of the probability of a document being relevant to a user's query than the common approach, i. e. the Probability Ranking Principle (PRP), which is based upon Kolmogorovian probability theory. Following our hypothesis, we formulate an analogy between the document retrieval scenario and a physical scenario, that of the double slit experiment. Through the analogy, we propose a novel ranking approach, the quantum probability ranking principle (qPRP). Key to our proposal is the presence of quantum interference. Mathematically, this is the statistical deviation between empirical observations and expected values predicted by the Kolmogorovian rule of additivity of probabilities of disjoint events in configurations such that of the double slit experiment. We propose an interpretation of quantum interference in the document ranking scenario, and examine how quantum interference can be effectively estimated for document retrieval. To validate our proposal and to gain more insights about approaches for document ranking, we (1) analyse PRP, qPRP and other ranking approaches, exposing the assumptions underlying their ranking criteria and formulating the conditions for the optimality of the two ranking principles, (2) empirically compare three ranking principles (i. e. PRP, interactive PRP, and qPRP) and two state-of-the-art ranking strategies in two retrieval scenarios, those of ad-hoc retrieval and diversity retrieval, (3) analytically contrast the ranking criteria of the examined approaches, exposing similarities and differences, (4) study the ranking behaviours of approaches alternative to PRP in terms of the kinematics they impose on relevant documents, i. e. by considering the extent and direction of the movements of relevant documents across the ranking recorded when comparing PRP against its alternatives. Our findings show that the effectiveness of the examined ranking approaches strongly depends upon the evaluation context. In the traditional evaluation context of ad-hoc retrieval, PRP is empirically shown to be better or comparable to alternative ranking approaches. However, when we turn to examine evaluation contexts that account for interdependent document relevance (i. e. when the relevance of a document is assessed also with respect to other retrieved documents, as it is the case in the diversity retrieval scenario) then the use of quantum probability theory and thus of qPRP is shown to improve retrieval and ranking effectiveness over the traditional PRP and alternative ranking strategies, such as Maximal Marginal Relevance, Portfolio theory, and Interactive PRP. This work represents a significant step forward regarding the use of quantum theory in information retrieval. It demonstrates in fact that the application of quantum theory to problems within information retrieval can lead to improvements both in modelling power and retrieval effectiveness, allowing the constructions of models that capture the complexity of information retrieval situations. Furthermore, the thesis opens up a number of lines for future research. These include: (1) investigating estimations and approximations of quantum interference in qPRP; (2) exploiting complex numbers for the representation of documents and queries, and; (3) applying the concepts underlying qPRP to tasks other than document ranking.

The Service Portfolio of a BPM Center of Excellence

A key concept for the centralized provision of Business Process Management (BPM) is the Center of Excellence (CoE). Organizations establish a CoE (aka BPM Support Office) as their BPM maturity increases in order to ensure a consistent and cost-effective way of offering BPM services. The definition of the offerings of such a center and the allocation of roles and responsibilities play an important role within BPM Governance. In order to plan the role of such a BPM CoE, this chapter proposes the productization of BPM leading to a set of fifteen distinct BPM services. A portfolio management approach is suggested to position these services. The approach allows identifying specific normative strategies for each BPM service, such as further training or BPM communication and marketing. A public sector case study provides further insights into how this approach has been used in practice. Empirical evidence from a survey with 15 organizations confirms the coverage of this set of BPM services and shows typical profiles for such BPM Centers of Excellence.

Taxation determinations as de facto regulation : private equity exits in Australia

The Australian Taxation Office (AT)) attempted to challenge both the private equity fund reliance on double tax agreements and the assertion that profits were capital in nature in its dispute with private equity group TPG. Failure to resolve the dispute resulted in the ATO issuing two taxation determinations: TD 2010/20 which states that the general anti-avoidance provisions can apply to arrangements designed to alter the intended effect of Australia's international tax agreements net; and TD 2010/21 which states that the profits on the sale of shares in a company group acquired in a leveraged buyout is assessable income. The purpose of this article is to determine the effectiveness of the administrative rulings regime as a regulatory strategy. This article, by using the TPG-Myer scenario and subsequent tax determinations as a case study, collects qualitative data which is then analysed (and triangulated) using tonal and thematic analysis. Contemporaneous commentary of private equity stakeholders, tax professionals, and media observations are analysed and evaluated within a framework of responsive regulation and utilising the current ATO compliance model. Contrary to the stated purpose of the ATO rulings regime to alleviate complexities in Australian taxation law and provide certainty to taxpayers, and despite the de facto law status afforded these rulings, this study found that the majority of private equity stakeholders and their advisors perceived that greater uncertainty was created by the two determinations. Thus, this study found that in the context of private equity fund investors, a responsive regulation measure in the form of taxation determinations was not effective.

Physical activity and physical fitness in African-American girls with and without obesity

Lack of physical activity and low levels of physical fitness are thought to be contributing factors to the high prevalence of obesity in African-American girls, To examine this hypothesis, we compared habitual physical activity and physical fitness in 54 African-American girls with obesity and 96 African-American girls without obesity residing in rural South Carolina, Participation in vigorous (greater than or equal to 6 METs) (VPA) or moderate and vigorous physical activity (greater than or equal to 4 METs) (MVPA) was assessed on three consecutive days using the Previous Day Physical Activity Recall, Cardiorespiratory fitness was assessed using the PWC 170 cycle ergometer test, Upper body strength was determined at two sites via isometric cable tensiometer tests, Relative to their counterparts without obesity, girls with obesity reported significantly fewer 30-minute blocks of VPA (0.90 +/- 0.14 vs. 1.3 +/- 0.14) and MVPA (1.2 +/- 0.18 vs. 1.7 +/- 0.16) (p<0.01), Within the entire sample, VPA and MVPA were inversely associated with body mass index (r=-0.17 and r=-0.19) and triceps skinfold thickness (r=-0.19 and r=-0.22) (p<0.05), In the PWC 170 test and isometric strength tests, girls with obesity demonstrated absolute scores that were similar to, or greater than, those of girls without obesity; however, when scores were expressed relative to bodyweight, girls with obesity demonstrated significantly lower values (p<0.05). The results support the hypothesis that lack of physical activity and low physical fitness are important contributing factors in the development and/or maintenance of obesity in African-American girls.

The activation, appropriation and practices of student-equity policy in Australian higher education

Current national reforms in Australian higher education have prioritised efforts to reduce educational disadvantage within a vernacular expression of neoliberal education policy. Student-equity policy in universities is enmeshed in a set of competitive student recruitment relations. This raises practice-based tensions as universities strive to meet specific institutional targets for low-socio-economic status (SES) and Indigenous student participation, whilst broadening participation more generally within the sector. This paper seeks empirically to trace the activation and appropriation of federal policy through two sites of higher education policy practices: a state government-sponsored equity practitioner body and two differently positioned universities, Dawson and McIllwraith, as they engage with low-SES schools. Working together Dorothy Smith’s insights into the textually mediated activation of local practices, Levinson and colleagues’ concept of the local appropriation of authorised policy, and Bourdieu’s notion of the contested field, we demonstrate that the generation of state level and institutionally specific policies for student-equity practices not only articulates to federal policy, but also appropriates the ruling relations of mandated policy. Further, the scope of these creative local appropriations is organised within a hierarchical academic field through which particular institutional imperatives, as well as the needs of low-SES students, are negotiated. The analysis demonstrates the vernacularisation of policy in the national rearticulation of global discourses, in appropriation at the level of the state body and in the practices of equity workers.