Evaluation of risk factors leading to cost overrun in delivery of highway construction projects

Accurate owner budget estimates are critical to the initial decision-to-build process for highway construction projects. However, transportation projects have historically experienced significant construction cost overruns from the time the decision to build has been taken by the owner. This paper addresses the problem of why highway projects overrun their predicted costs. It identifies the owner risk variables that contribute to significant cost overrun and then uses factor analysis, expert elicitation, and the nominal group technique to establish groups of importance ranked owner risks. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis is also used to investigate any correlation of the percentage of cost overrun with risks, together with attributes such as highway project type, indexed cost, geographics location, and project delivery method. The research results indicate a correlation between the reciprocal of project budgets size and percentage cost overrun. This can be useful for owners in determining more realistic decision-to-build highway budget estimates by taking into account the economies of scale associated with larger projects.

Advanced Gen-1, 2 and 3 biofuels research in Australia - Fuelling advanced biofuels training for international scientists

Flinders University and Queensland University of Technology, biofuels research interests cover a broad range of activities. Both institutions are seeking to overcome the twin evils of "peak oil" (Hubbert 1949 & 1956) and "global warming" (IPPC 2007, Stern 2006, Alison 2010), through development of Generation 1, 2 and 3 (Gen-1, 2 & 3) biofuels (Clarke 2008, Clarke 2010). This includes development of parallel Chemical Biorefinery, value-added, co-product chemical technologies, which can underpin the commercial viability of the biofuel industry. Whilst there is a focused effort to develop Gen-2 & 3 biofuels, thus avoiding the socially unacceptable use of food based Gen-1 biofuels, it must also be recognized that as yet, no country in the world has produced sustainable Gen-2 & 3 biofuel on a commercial basis. For example, in 2008 the United States used 38 billion litres (3.5% of total fuel use) of Gen-1 biofuel; in 2009/2010 this will be 47.5 billion litres (4.5% of fuel use) and in 2018 this has been estimated to rise to 96 billion litres (9% of total US fuel use). Brazil in 2008 produced 24.5 billion litres of ethanol, representing 37.3% of the world’s ethanol use for fuel and Europe, in 2008, produced 11.7 billion litres of biofuel (primarily as biodiesel). Compare this to Australia’s miserly biofuel production in 2008/2009 of 180 million litres of ethanol and 75 million litres of biodiesel, which is 0.4% of our fuel consumption! (Clarke, Graiver and Habibie 2010) To assist in the development of better biofuels technologies in the Asian developing regions the Australian Government recently awarded the Materials & BioEnergy Group from Flinders University, in partnership with the Queensland University of Technology, an Australian Leadership Award (ALA) Biofuel Fellowship program to train scientists from Indonesia and India about all facets of advanced biofuel technology.

Influence of iodine value on combustion and NOx emission characteristics of a DI diesel engine

Biodiesel is a renewable fuel that has been shown to reduce many exhaust emissions, except oxides of nitrogen (NOx), in diesel engine cars. This is of special concern in inner urban areas that are subject to strict environmental regulations, such as EURO norms. Also, the use of pure biodiesel (B100) is inhibited because of its higher NOx emissions compared to petroleum diesel fuel. The aim of this present work is to investigate the effect of the iodine value and cetane number of various biodiesel fuels obtained from different feed stocks on the combustion and NOx emission characteristics of a direct injection (DI) diesel engine. The biodiesel fuels were chosen from various feed stocks such as coconut, palm kernel, mahua (Madhuca indica), pongamia pinnata, jatropha curcas, rice bran, and sesame seed oils. The experimental results show an approximately linear relationship between iodine value and NOx emissions. The biodiesels obtained from coconut and palm kernel showed lower NOx levels than diesel, but other biodiesels showed an increase in NOx. It was observed that the nature of the fatty acids of the biodiesel fuels had a significant influence on the NOx emissions. Also, the cetane numbers of the biodiesel fuels are affected both premixed combustion and the combustion rate, which further affected the amount of NOx formation. It was concluded that NOx emissions are influenced by many parameters of biodiesel fuels, particularly the iodine value and cetane number.

Benchmarking framework to measure extent of ICT adoption for building project management

This project discusses a component of the research study conducted to provide construction organizations with a generic benchmarking framework to assess their extent of information communication technology (ICT) adoption for building project management processes. It defines benchmarking and discusses objectives of the required benchmarking framework and development of the framework. The study focuses on ICT adoption by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the construction industry and with respect to SMEs it is important to understand processes, their indicators, and measures in the local context. Structure of the suggested benchmarking framework has been derived after extensive literature survey and a questionnaire survey conducted in the Indian construction industry. The suggested benchmarking process is an iterative process divided into four stages. It can be implemented at organization and industry levels for rating the construction organizations for ICT adoption and performance measurement. The framework has a generic structure and can be generalized and applied for other countries with due considerations.

Iteratively specified tree-based regression : theory and trip generation example

Focuses on a study which introduced an iterative modeling method that combines properties of ordinary least squares (OLS) with hierarchical tree-based regression (HTBR) in transportation engineering. Information on OLS and HTBR; Comparison and contrasts of OLS and HTBR; Conclusions.

Probability and statistics

Now in its sixth edition, the Traffic Engineering Handbook continues to be a must have publication in the transportation industry, as it has been for the past 60 years. The new edition provides updated information for people entering the practice and for those already practicing. The handbook is a convenient desk reference, as well as an all in one source of principles and proven techniques in traffic engineering. Most chapters are presented in a new format, which divides the chapters into four areas-basics, current practice, emerging trends and information sources. Chapter topics include road users, vehicle characteristics, statistics, planning for operations, communications, safety, regulations, traffic calming, access management, geometrics, signs and markings, signals, parking, traffic demand, maintenance and studies. In addition, as the focus in transportation has shifted from project based to operations based, two new chapters have been added-"Planning for Operations" and "Managing Traffic Demand to Address Congestion: Providing Travelers with Choices." The Traffic Engineering Handbook continues to be one of the primary reference sources for study to become a certified Professional Traffic Operations Engineer™. Chapters are authored by notable and experienced authors, and reviewed and edited by a distinguished panel of traffic engineering experts.

Identifying large truck hot spots using crash counts and PDOEs

Large trucks are involved in a disproportionately small fraction of the total crashes but a disproportionately large fraction of fatal crashes. Large truck crashes often result in significant congestion due to their large physical dimensions and from difficulties in clearing crash scenes. Consequently, preventing large truck crashes is critical to improving highway safety and operations. This study identifies high risk sites (hot spots) for large truck crashes in Arizona and examines potential risk factors related to the design and operation of the high risk sites. High risk sites were identified using both state of the practice methods (accident reduction potential using negative binomial regression with long crash histories) and a newly proposed method using Property Damage Only Equivalents (PDOE). The hot spots identified via the count model generally exhibited low fatalities and major injuries but large minor injuries and PDOs, while the opposite trend was observed using the PDOE methodology. The hot spots based on the count model exhibited large AADTs, whereas those based on the PDOE showed relatively small AADTs but large fractions of trucks and high posted speed limits. Documented site investigations of hot spots revealed numerous potential risk factors, including weaving activities near freeway junctions and ramps, absence of acceleration lanes near on-ramps, small shoulders to accommodate large trucks, narrow lane widths, inadequate signage, and poor lighting conditions within a tunnel.

Framework for measuring corporate safety culture and its impact on construction safety performance

This paper presents the results of a structural equation model (SEM) that describes and quantifies the relationships between corporate culture and safety performance. The SEM is estimated using 196 individual questionnaire responses from three companies with better than average safety records. A multiattribute analysis of corporate safety culture characteristics resulted in a hierarchical description of corporate safety culture comprised of three major categories — people, process, and value. These three major categories were decomposed into 54 measurable questions and used to develop a questionnaire to quantify corporate safety culture. The SEM identified five latent variables that describe corporate safety culture: (1) a company’s safety commitment; (2) the safety incentives that are offered to field personal for safe performance; (3) the subcontractor involvement in the company culture; (4) the field safety accountability and dedication; and (5) the disincentives for unsafe behaviors. These characteristics of company safety culture serve as indicators for a company’s safety performance. Based on the findings from this limited sample of three companies, this paper proposes a list of practices that companies may consider to improve corporate safety culture and safety performance. A more comprehensive study based on a larger sample is recommended to corroborate the findings of this study.

Modeling crash types: New insights into the effects of covariates on crashes at rural intersections

Many studies focused on the development of crash prediction models have resulted in aggregate crash prediction models to quantify the safety effects of geometric, traffic, and environmental factors on the expected number of total, fatal, injury, and/or property damage crashes at specific locations. Crash prediction models focused on predicting different crash types, however, have rarely been developed. Crash type models are useful for at least three reasons. The first is motivated by the need to identify sites that are high risk with respect to specific crash types but that may not be revealed through crash totals. Second, countermeasures are likely to affect only a subset of all crashes—usually called target crashes—and so examination of crash types will lead to improved ability to identify effective countermeasures. Finally, there is a priori reason to believe that different crash types (e.g., rear-end, angle, etc.) are associated with road geometry, the environment, and traffic variables in different ways and as a result justify the estimation of individual predictive models. The objectives of this paper are to (1) demonstrate that different crash types are associated to predictor variables in different ways (as theorized) and (2) show that estimation of crash type models may lead to greater insights regarding crash occurrence and countermeasure effectiveness. This paper first describes the estimation results of crash prediction models for angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction), and pedestrian-involved crash types. Serving as a basis for comparison, a crash prediction model is estimated for total crashes. Based on 837 motor vehicle crashes collected on two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia, six prediction models are estimated resulting in two Poisson (P) models and four NB (NB) models. The analysis reveals that factors such as the annual average daily traffic, the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, whereas median widths and the presence of lighting are negatively associated. For the best fitting models covariates are related to crash types in different ways, suggesting that crash types are associated with different precrash conditions and that modeling total crash frequency may not be helpful for identifying specific countermeasures.

An investigation of rail condition monitoring by Fibre Bragg Grating sensors

Condition monitoring on rails and train wheels is vitally important to the railway asset management and the rail-wheel interactions provide the crucial information of the health state of both rails and wheels. Continuous and remote monitoring is always a preference for operators. With a new generation of strain sensing devices in Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) sensors, this study explores the possibility of continuous monitoring of the health state of the rails; and investigates the required signal processing techniques and their limitations.

Component reliability estimations without field data

Maintenance activities in a large-scale engineering system are usually scheduled according to the lifetimes of various components in order to ensure the overall reliability of the system. Lifetimes of components can be deduced by the corresponding probability distributions with parameters estimated from past failure data. While failure data of the components is not always readily available, the engineers have to be content with the primitive information from the manufacturers only, such as the mean and standard deviation of lifetime, to plan for the maintenance activities. In this paper, the moment-based piecewise polynomial model (MPPM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of the reliability probability distribution of the products when only the mean and standard deviation of the product lifetime are known. This method employs a group of polynomial functions to estimate the two parameters of the Weibull Distribution according to the mathematical relationship between the shape parameter of two-parameters Weibull Distribution and the ratio of mean and standard deviation. Tests are carried out to evaluate the validity and accuracy of the proposed methods with discussions on its suitability of applications. The proposed method is particularly useful for reliability-critical systems, such as railway and power systems, in which the maintenance activities are scheduled according to the expected lifetimes of the system components.

Signalling layout for fixed-block railway lines with real-coded genetic algorithms.

Signalling layout design is one of the keys to railway operations with fixed-block signalling system and it also carries direct effect on overall train efficiency and safety. Based on an analysis to system objectives, this paper presents an optimization model with two objectives in order to devise an efficient signalling layout scheme. Taking into account the present railway line design practices in China, the paper describes steps of the computer-based signalling layout optimisation with real-coded genetic algorithms. A computer-aided system, based on train movement simulator, has also been employed to assist the optimisation process. A case study on a practical railway line has been conducted to make comparisons between the proposed GA-based approach and the current practices. The results illustrate the improved performance of the proposed approach in reducing signal block joints and shortening minimum train service headway.

A fiber Bragg grating sensor system for train axle counting

Railway signaling facilitates two main functions, namely, train detection and train control, in order to maintain safe separations among the trains. Track circuits are the most commonly used train detection means with the simple open/close circuit principles; and subsequent adoption of axle counters further allows the detection of trains under adverse track conditions. However, with electrification and power electronics traction drive systems, aggravated by the electromagnetic interference in the vicinity of the signaling system, railway engineers often find unstable or even faulty operations of track circuits and axle counting systems, which inevitably jeopardizes the safe operation of trains. A new means of train detection, which is completely free from electromagnetic interference, is therefore required for the modern railway signaling system. This paper presents a novel optical fiber sensor signaling system. The sensor operation, field setup, axle detection solution set, and test results of an installation in a trial system on a busy suburban railway line are given.

A practical implementation of a continuous isotropic spherical omnidirectional drive

This paper presents a continuous isotropic spherical omnidirectional drive mechanism that is efficient in its mechanical simplicity and use of volume. Spherical omnidirectional mechanisms allow isotropic motion, although many are limited from achieving true isotropic motion by practical mechanical design considerations. The mechanism presented in this paper uses a single motor to drive a point on the great circle of the sphere parallel to the ground plane, and does not require a gearbox. Three mechanisms located 120 degrees apart provide a stable drive platform for a mobile robot. Results show the omnidirectional ability of the robot and demonstrate the performance of the spherical mechanism compared to a popular commercial omnidirectional wheel over edges of varying heights and gaps of varying widths.