Ciclo de los negocios en Colombia: el papel de la política de estabilización

Este documento mide la sincronización entre las políticas de estabilización y el ciclo de los negocios en Colombia en el periodo comprendido entre marzo de 1990 y junio de 2013. Para la construcción de los ciclos se utiliza la metodología clásica y se construye un ciclo de referencia a partir de ciclos individuales de tres índices de actividad económica real. Con el fin de medir la sincronización entre el ciclo de nego­cios y los ciclos de las políticas fiscal y monetaria se utiliza el estadístico de Harding y Pagan (2006). Se concluye que durante el periodo de estudio las políticas de estabilización tienden a ser procíclicas (por el lado fiscal) y acíclicas (por el lado monetario). En la literatura se conoce a este fenómeno como when it rains, it pours y es común que se presente en economías emergentes como la colombiana

Pre-colonial institutions and long-run development in Latin America

The present doctoral thesis studies the association between pre-colonial institutions and long-run development in Latin America. The thesis is organised as follows: Chapter 1 places the motivation of the thesis by underlying relevant contributions in the literature on long-run development. I then set out the main objective of the thesis, followed by a brief outline of it. In Chapter 2, I study the effects of pre-colonial institutions on present-day socioeconomic outcomes for Latin America. The main thesis of this chapter is that more advanced pre-colonial institutions relate to better socioeconomic outcomes today - principally, but not only, through their effects on the Amerindian population. I test such hypothesis with a dataset of 324 sub-national administrative units covering all mainland Latin American countries. The extensive range of controls covers factors such as climate, location, natural resources, colonial activities and pre-colonial characteristics - plus country fixed effects. Results strongly support the main thesis. In Chapter 3, I further analyse the association between pre-colonial institutions and present-day economic development in Latin America by using the historical ethnic homelands as my main unit of analysis. The main hypothesis is that ethnic homelands inhabited by more advanced ethnic groups -as measured by their levels of institutional complexity- relate to better economic development today. To track these long-run effects, I construct a new dataset by digitising historiographical maps allowing me to pinpoint the geospatial location of ethnic homelands as of the XVI century. As a result, 375 ethnic homelands are created. I then capture the levels of economic development at the ethnic homeland level by making use of alternative economic measures --satellite light density data. After controlling for country-specific characteristics and applying a large battery of geographical, locational, and historical factors, I found that the effects of pre-colonial institutions relate to a higher light density --as a proxy for economic activity- in ethnic homelands where more advanced ethnic groups lived. In Chapter 4, I explore a mechanism linking the persistence of pre-colonial institutions in Latin America over the long-run: Colonial and post-colonial strategies along with the ethnic political capacity worked in tandem allowing larger Amerindian groups to "support" the new political systems in ways that would benefit their respective ethnic groups as well as the population at large. This mechanism may have allowed the effects of pre-colonial institutions to influence socioeconomic development outcomes up to today. To shed lights on this mechanism, I combine the index of pre-colonial institutions prepared for the second chapter of the present thesis with individual-level survey data on people's attitudes. By controlling for key observable and unobservable country-specific characteristics, the main empirical results show that areas with a history of more advanced pre-colonial institutions increase the probability of individuals supporting present-day political institutions. Finally, in Chapter 5, I summarise the main findings of the thesis, and emphasise the key weaknesses of the study as well as potential avenues for future research.

Análise da silvicultura na bacia hidrográfica do rio Jaguarão (Brasil-Uruguai) : diagnóstico para a gestão geoambiental em bacia transfronteiriça

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Humanas, Departamento de Geografia, 2015.

"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster - Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of smallscale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socioeconomic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity. © Author(s) 2009.

Prevalence and characterization of Salmonella spp. in three shellfish-harvesting areas in France

Shellfish farming is an important economic activity in the Brittany and Normandy regions. However, a part of the production sites corresponds to relatively sensitive areas where the presence of faecal microorganisms is a major concern for shellfish and constitutes a possible health risk. Indeed, shellfish bioaccumulates in their tissues pathogenic contaminants present in water and can cause food-borne diseases such as salmonellosis. During a two-year study, we evaluated the presence of faecal indicators, measured the prevalence of Salmonella spp., isolated and characterized Salmonella spp. from three French shellfish-harvesting areas (shellfish and sediment) and their watersheds (from river water samples).

Impactos sociais da atividade turística: um estudo de caso em Tibau do Sul/RN

This study has been presented for the Master in business of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, the objectives are evaluate the social impacts of the tourism in the community of Tibau do Sul in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. The research is a study of case and the analysis is qualitative and quantitative. The tourism is considerate for many people as an important source of richness, job and an important economic activity. However, for being an activity that involves as main element people, It can cause impacts, could these are beneficial or malign. To evaluate the community's perception about these impacts, it was applied a questionnaire returned to the perceptions of them about the next social indicators: health, job, security, education and life quality. Considering the advent of the tourist activity in a period fifteen year. Through the research could conclude that, of general form the population realizes the changes occurred in the municipal district of positive way. Except for some indicators that receive negative evaluation

O city marketing em Natal/RN e a construção da imagem da cidade

The growing importance of tourism in overall economic activity worldwide has favored the intensification of competition among cities that seek to create environments attractive to tourists and potential investors. It has been common practice to import characteristics of the business environment in the public management of cities. The city marketing is a key tool used by public leaders to promote a linkage between the tourism image and urban image and involves, in addition to promoting the image of the city, the planning of interventions in urban space, trying to formulate a positive image of the city able to facilitate the deployment of capital. This research seeks to understand the nature of city marketing as part of contemporary urban management and analyzes how is its application in decisions concerning the promotion of tourism in Natal/RN. The approach of this research is qualitative, exploratory and descriptive, in which respondents were the main leaders of two of the official tourism site, the Empresa Potiguar de Promoção Turística and the Secretaria Municipal de Turismo e Desenvolvimento Econômico. It was found that there is a strong articulation of public power with private enterprise in the design and conduct of the actions of urban marketing, that from the survey data show that the behavior of target markets provide guidelines for taking strategic decisions relating to tourism. Sun and sea are some key elements explored to form the image of Natal and to authorize the sale of the city as a tropical paradise. However, there is an increase in the diversification of tourism products, seeking to increase flow to the segments of ecotourism, adventure, business and culture. It s also growing the use of local culture as a tourism product, however, the cultural representation focuses on superficial values and does not bring to light the social and historical richness that the city has. Public authorities use the city marketing strategies as a means able to maximize the attractiveness of Natal urban space to investors, business groups and tourists. It can be observed that urban managers seek solutions that can continuously increase the tours, which often manifests in interventions that focus the tourist areas of the city, in oposition of those who do not contribute to a positive reading of the city, which ultimately generate the worsening of spacial and social inequalities

Atributos de qualidade de solos sob dois diferentes tipos de manejo no município de Ibiúna/SP, Brazil

Agricultural activity has direct consequences on the soil and water quality. Thus, assessing environmental impacts of this vital economic activity, through soil attribute analysis, is essential to the proposal of alternatives. The aim of this study was to analyze soil quality under different land management practices, conventional and organic. The study was carried out in a watershed of the Ibiuna municipality, SP, Brazil, an important supplier of agricultural products for the São Paulo metropolitan area. A hundred samples were collected, 20 in each type of land use: reforested areas, native vegetation, pasture, conventional cultivation and organic cultivation. The soil resistance to penetration, its pH (in water and KO), electrical conductivity, bulk density, particle density, porosity, soil color, soil texture and the percentages of carbon and nitrogen were analyzed. The data were statistically analyzed, searching for significant differences. The results of soil analysis showed great similarity between the organic and conventional culture, with no statistical differences. However, organic cultivation showed greater similarity to the soil of native vegetation in the percentage of carbon and nitrogen in soils compared to conventional culture. Thus, the discussion begins on a topic very little explored so far, and the results obtained should be further studied.

Análisis de las actividades turísticas que se desarrollan en el Biocorredor Yanuncay para determinar su sostenibilidad

Esta investigación se centra en el análisis de las tres actividades turísticas principales que se desarrollan a lo largo del BiocorredorYanuncay, perteneciente a la parroquia San Joaquín, Cantón Cuenca, provincia del Azuay. La restauración, el cultivo de huertos orgánicos y la cestería, serán estudiadas desde el punto de vista de la sostenibilidad, considerando a esta como parte fundamental para la gestión de todo tipo de emprendimiento. La aplicación de la sostenibilidad al turismo ha contribuido para que los prestadores de servicios y los turistas opten por una mentalidad más consciente, no únicamente en el ámbito ambiental sino también en el sociocultural y económico, que unidos forman un modelo de desarrollo equilibrado en el cual todos resultan beneficiados. La guía de “Buenas Prácticas de Turismo Sostenible” elaborada por la organización RainforestAliance, ha sido primordial para realizar el análisis. Dentro de este documento se encuentran expuestas buenas prácticas que se relacionan a cada pilar de la sostenibilidad, las mismas que deben ser consideradas por todos los emprendimientos turísticos para que puedan permanecer en el tiempo. Al identificar las falencias de los prestadores de servicios turísticos del Biocorredor en el área de la sostenibilidad, se plantea trabajar en propuestas que ayuden a los emprendedores a mejorar la experiencia del turista, aprovechando los recursos culturales y naturales de la zona.

Gestão territorial e geografia dos transportes : o processo de concessão do Aeroporto Internacional de Brasília

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Geografia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia, 2016.

EL IMPACTO DE LA CRISIS ECONÓMICA MUNDIAL SOBRE LA ECONOMÍA COSTARRICENSE: los efectos macroeconómicos

ResumenLa economía costarricense es una economía pequeña pero muy abierta al exterior, por ello, lo que ocurre en el resto del mundo nos afecta de alguna manera. Cuando estalló la crisis en los Estados Unidos, sus repercusiones se hicieron notar poco a poco alrededor del mundo. En un principio el principal efecto sobre nuestro país se vio reflejado en la inflación, sin embargo, conforme transcurrió el tiempo los efectos saltaron al sector real de la economía, es decir, a la producción y al empleo. En este artículo se analizan los principales efectos que hasta el momento ha tenido la crisis económica mundial en nuestro país, entre ellos se mencionan, la inflación; el decrecimiento en la actividad económica de los sectores construcción, industria, comercio y hoteles, principalmente; la caída en el turismo, las remesas, la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED), las exportaciones e importaciones y, por último, la reducción en el empleo.Abstract Costa Rican economy is a very small open economy; therefore, what happens in the rest of the world affects us in some way. When the crisis in the United States exploded, its impact was slowly evident around the world. At first, the main effect on our country was reflected in inflation; however, the effects were then clear on the real sector of the economy, i.e. production and employment. This article examines the main effects which so far have been the global economic crisis in our economy, including inflation, and the decline in the economic activity in the construction sector, industry, commerce and hotels, primarily; as well as the fall in tourism, remittances, Foreign Direct Investment, exports and imports, and finally the reduction in employment.

EFECTOS ASIMÉTRICOS DE LA POLÍTICA MONETARIA

El objetivo de este documento es obtener evidencia empírica acerca de la existencia de efectos asimétricos de la política monetaria sobre el nivel de actividad económica, con base en el comportamiento de la tasa de interés. Se observa un efecto asimétrico de la política monetaria cuando tasas de interés por encima de su nivel fundamental tienen un efecto sobre la actividad económica significativamente distinto del que tendría una tasa de interés por debajo de su nivel fundamental.La identificación de cambios en la tasa de interés que reflejan cambios de política se realiza por mínimos cuadrados en dos etapas. En la primera etapa, el nivel fundamental de la tasa de interés se estima con una regla de Taylor modificada y sus residuos son utilizados para identificar el estado de la política. La segunda etapa consiste en una regresión del producto real sobre una constante y los valores rezagados de los residuos positivos y negativos obtenidos en la primera etapa. La asimetría vendría determinada por la significancia estadística de los coeficientes individuales de los residuos positivos y negativos y de la diferencia entre estos.La evidencia empírica, para el periodo 1994:01-2002:11, sugiere la existencia de una asimetría débil de la política monetaria. Lo anterior debido a que aunque los incrementos y disminuciones en la tasa de interés afectan el nivel de producción significativamente, la diferencia del impacto no resulta significativa.AbstractThe objective of this paper is to obtain empirical evidence about the existence of asymmetric effects of monetary policy over economic activity, based on interest rate behavior. Monetary policy shows an asymmetric effect when an interest rate over their fundamental level have an impact on economic activity that is significantly different from that when interest rate are below its fundamental level.Changes in interest rate that reflect changes of policy are identified using two stage least squares. In the first stage, the fundamental level of the interest rate is estimated with a modified Taylor rule and residuals are used to identify the state of the policy. The second stage consists of a regression of the real output on a constant and lagged values of the positive and negative residuals obtained in the first stage. The asymmetry would come determined by the statistical significance of individual coefficients of positive and negative residuals and the difference between them.The empirical evidence, over the 1994:01-2002:11 period, suggests the existence of weak asymmetry of monetary policy. Although increases and reductions in interest rate affect the production level significantly, the difference of the impact is not significant.

Orchestrating New Markets Using Cloud Services

Part 5: Service Orientation in Collaborative Networks

Modelo actual de la parroquia Octavio Cordero Palacios

El modelo actual de la parroquia Octavio Cordero Palacios pretende aportar con una imagen de la proyección espacial del estilo de desarrollo de la sociedad en el espacio al que se refiere, de tal manera que estrategias distintas de desarrollo económico, social y ambiental conducen a modelos distintos de organización espacial. Para lo cual el siguiente trabajo está organizado en cuatro capítulos: El primer capítulo aborda el tema del diagnóstico del medio físico, poniendo énfasis en: el relieve, geomorfología, geología, suelos, clima, hidrología, medio biótico, formaciones vegetales, uso actual y potencial del suelo, vulnerabilidades, degradaciones y amenazas de orden natural o antrópico. El segundo capítulo hace alusión al diagnóstico del poblamiento donde se abordan estudios sobre: evolución histórica de la población, estructura poblacional y su proyección, migración, educación, tasas de actividad económica y su estructura. El tercer capítulo se enfoca en el diagnóstico del poblamiento y contiene estudios sobre los núcleos poblaciones y sus atributos, el grado de consolidación y el uso del suelo. El último capítulo hace referencia al marco legal e institucional, en primera instancia, se trata sobre las normas que regulan el uso y ocupación del suelo como también las competencias, funciones y atribuciones de los GAD´s parroquiales. A esto hay que añadir la elaboración del modelo actual a partir de los diagnósticos sectoriales previos trabajados a base de interpretaciones. La elaboración del diagnóstico integrado permite determinar las debilidades y potencialidades relevantes del área en estudio.

Diagnóstico de la gestión presupuestaria para el sector dedicado a la venta al por mayor y menor de productos veterinarios en el cantón cuenca y propuesta para su mejoramiento. Caso práctico Agropecuaria en el Austro 2015-2016

EL presente trabajo de titulación, denominado; Diagnóstico de la gestión presupuestaria para el sector dedicado a la venta al por mayor y menor de productos veterinarios en el cantón Cuenca y propuesta para su mejoramiento. Caso práctico:Agropecuaria en el Austro. Para los años 2015-2016. Ha sido desarrollada con el propósito de contribuir socioeconómicamente a este sector económico; como primer punto se diagnosticará la situación del sector, para luego generar un modelo de gestión presupuestaria que sirva como guía y base de desarrollo empresarial, que posteriormente mediante la decisión de los propietarios de dichas empresas que se dedican a esta actividad economía, el modelo pueda ser implementado y puesto en marcha.