Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

A comparison of surface doses for very small field size x-ray beams : Monte Carlo calculations and radiochromic film measurements

Stereotactic radiosurgery treatments involve the delivery of very high doses for a small number of fractions. To date, there is limited data in terms of the skin dose for the very small field sizes used in these treatments. In this work, we determine relative surface doses for small size circular collimators as used in stereotactic radiosurgery treatments. Monte Carlo calculations were performed using the BEAMnrc code with a model of the Novalis 15 Trilogy linear accelerator and the BrainLab circular collimators. The surface doses were calculated at the ICRU skin dose depth of 70 m all using the 6 MV SRS x-ray beam. The calculated surface doses varied between 15 – 12% with decreasing values as the field size increased from 4 to 30 mm. In comparison, surface doses were measured using Gafchromic EBT3 film positioned at the surface of a Virtual Water phantom. The absolute agreement between calculated and measured surface doses was better than 2.5% which is well within the 20 uncertainties of the Monte Carlo calculations and the film measurements. Based on these results, we have shown that the Gafchromic EBT3 film is suitable for surface dose estimates in very small size fields as used in SRS.

The influence of Monte Carlo source parameters on detector design and dose perturbation in small field dosimetry

To obtain accurate Monte Carlo simulations of small radiation fields, it is important model the initial source parameters (electron energy and spot size) accurately. However recent studies have shown that small field dosimetry correction factors are insensitive to these parameters. The aim of this work is to extend this concept to test if these parameters affect dose perturbations in general, which is important for detector design and calculating perturbation correction factors. The EGSnrc C++ user code cavity was used for all simulations. Varying amounts of air between 0 and 2 mm were deliberately introduced upstream to a diode and the dose perturbation caused by the air was quantified. These simulations were then repeated using a range of initial electron energies (5.5 to 7.0 MeV) and electron spot sizes (0.7 to 2.2 FWHM). The resultant dose perturbations were large. For example 2 mm of air caused a dose reduction of up to 31% when simulated with a 6 mm field size. However these values did not vary by more than 2 % when simulated across the full range of source parameters tested. If a detector is modified by the introduction of air, one can be confident that the response of the detector will be the same across all similar linear accelerators and the Monte Carlo modelling of each machine is not required.

Novel sequential methods in dose-finding designs : extensions of the continual reassessment method

Dose-finding trials are a form of clinical data collection process in which the primary objective is to estimate an optimum dose of an investigational new drug when given to a patient. This thesis develops and explores three novel dose-finding design methodologies. All design methodologies presented in this thesis are pragmatic. They use statistical models, incorporate clinicians' prior knowledge efficiently, and prematurely stop a trial for safety or futility reasons. Designing actual dose-finding trials using these methodologies will minimize practical difficulties, improve efficiency of dose estimation, be flexible to stop early and reduce possible patient discomfort or harm.

Factors affecting the extraction of absorbed dose information in a 3D polymer gel dosimeter by X ray computed tomography (IAEA-CN-96/122P)

Two sources of uncertainty in the X ray computed tomography imaging of polymer gel dosimeters are investigated in the paper.The first cause is a change in postirradiation density, which is proportional to the computed tomography signal and is associated with a volume change. The second cause of uncertainty is reconstruction noise.A simple technique that increases the residual signal to noise ratio by almost two orders of magnitude is examined.

Residual stresses in rail-ends from the in-service insulated rail joints using neutron diffraction

Insulated rail joints (IRJs) are an integral part of the rail track signaling system and pose significant maintenance and replacement costs due to their low and fluctuating service lives. Failure occurs mainly in rail head region, bolt- holes of fishplates and web-holes of the rails. Propagation of cracks is influenced by the evolution of internal residual stresses in rails during rail manufacturing (hot-rolling, roller-straightening, and head-hardening process), and during service, particularly in heavy rail haul freight systems where loads are high. In this investigation, rail head accumulated residual stresses were analysed using neutron diffraction at the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO). Two ex-service two head-hardened rail joints damaged under different loading were examined and results were compared with those obtained from an unused rail joint reference sample in order to differentiate the stresses developed during rail manufacturing and stresses accumulated during rail service. Neutron diffraction analyses were carried out on the samples in longitudinal, transverse and vertical directions, and on 5mm thick sliceed samples cut by Electric Discharge Machining (EDM). For the rail joints from the service line, irrespective of loading conditions and in-service times, results revealed similar depth profiles of stress distribution. Evolution of residual stress fields in rails due to service was also accompanied by evidence of larger material flow based on reflected light and scanning electron microscopy studies. Stress evolution in the vicinity of rail ends was characterised by a compressive layer, approximately 5 mm deep, and a tension zone located approximately 5- 15mm below the surfaces. A significant variation of d0 with depth near the top surface was detected and was attributed to decarburization in the top layer induced by cold work. Stress distributions observed in longitudinal slices of the two different deformed rail samples were found to be similar. For the undeformed rail, the stress distributions obtained could be attributed to variations associated with thermo-mechanical history of the rail.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Polycaprolactone scaffold and reduced rhBMP-7 dose for the regeneration of critical-sized defects in sheep tibiae

The transplantation of autologous bone graft as a treatment for large bone defects has the limitation of harvesting co-morbidity and limited availability. This drives the orthopaedic research community to develop bone graft substitutes. Routinely, supra-physiological doses of bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) are applied perpetuating concerns over undesired side effects and cost of BMPs. We therefore aimed to design a composite scaffold that allows maintenance of protein bioactivity and enhances growth factor retention at the implantation site. Critical-sized defects in sheep tibiae were treated with the autograft and with two dosages of rhBMP-7, 3.5 mg and 1.75 mg, embedded in a slowly degradable medical grade poly(ε-caprolactone) (PCL) scaffold with β-tricalcium phosphate microparticles (mPCL-TCP). Specimens were characterised by biomechanical testing, microcomputed tomography and histology. Bridging was observed within 3 months for the autograft and both rhBMP-7 treatments. No significant difference was observed between the low and high rhBMP-7 dosages or between any of the rhBMP-7 groups and autograft implantation. Scaffolds alone did not induce comparable levels of bone formation compared to the autograft and rhBMP-7 groups. In summary, the mPCL-TCP scaffold with the lower rhBMP-7 dose led to equivalent results to autograft transplantation or the high BMP dosage. Our data suggest a promising clinical future for BMP application in scaffold-based bone tissue engineering, lowering and optimising the amount of required BMP.

Incorporating adverse event relatedness into dose-finding clinical trial designs

Dose-finding designs estimate the dose level of a drug based on observed adverse events. Relatedness of the adverse event to the drug has been generally ignored in all proposed design methodologies. These designs assume that the adverse events observed during a trial are definitely related to the drug, which can lead to flawed dose-level estimation. We incorporate adverse event relatedness into the so-called continual reassessment method. Adverse events that have ‘doubtful’ or ‘possible’ relationships to the drug are modelled using a two-parameter logistic model with an additive probability mass. Adverse events ‘probably’ or ‘definitely’ related to the drug are modelled using a cumulative logistic model. To search for the maximum tolerated dose, we use the maximum estimated toxicity probability of these two adverse event relatedness categories. We conduct a simulation study that illustrates the characteristics of the design under various scenarios. This article demonstrates that adverse event relatedness is important for improved dose estimation. It opens up further research pathways into continual reassessment design methodologies.

Commissioning of a new commercial plastic scintillator system for radiotherapy

Introduction Since 1992 there have been several articles published on research on plastic scintillators for use in radiotherapy. Plastic scintillators are said to be tissue equivalent, temperature independent and dose rate independent [1]. Although their properties were found to be promising for measurements in megavoltage X-ray beams there were some technical difficulties with regards to its commercialisation. Standard Imaging has produced the first commercial system which is now available for use in a clinical setting. The Exradin W1 scintillator device uses a dual fibre system where one fibre is connected to the Plastic Scintillator and the other fibre only measures Cerenkov radiation [2]. This paper presents results obtained during commissioning of this dosimeter system. Methods All tests were performed on a Novalis Tx linear accelerator equipped with a 6 MV SRS photon beam and conventional 6 and 18 MV X-ray beams. The following measurements were performed in a Virtual Water phantom at a depth of dose maximum. Linearity: The dose delivered was varied between 0.2 and 3.0 Gy for the same field conditions. Dose rate dependence: For this test the repetition rate of the linac was varied between 100 and 1,000 MU/min. A nominal dose of 1.0 Gy was delivered for each rate. Reproducibility: A total of five irradiations for the same setup. Results The W1 detector gave a highly linear relationship between dose and the number of Monitor Units delivered for a 10 9 10 cm2 field size at a SSD of 100 cm. The linearity was within 1 % for the high dose end and about 2 % for the very low dose end. For the dose rate dependence, the dose measured as a function of repetition the rate (100–1,000 MU/min) gave a maximum deviation of 0.9 %. The reproducibility was found to be better than 0.5 %. Discussion and conclusions The results for this system look promising so far being a new dosimetry system available for clinical use. However, further investigation is needed to produce a full characterisation prior to use in megavoltage X-ray beams.

Surface dosimetry for very small X-ray beams

Introduction The dose to skin surface is an important factor for many radiotherapy treatment techniques. It is known that TPS predicted surface doses can be significantly different from actual ICRP skin doses as defined at 70 lm. A number of methods have been implemented for the accurate determination of surface dose including use of specific dosimeters such as TLDs and radiochromic film as well as Monte Carlo calculations. Stereotactic radiosurgery involves delivering very high doses per treatment fraction using small X-ray fields. To date, there has been limited data on surface doses for these very small field sizes. The purpose of this work is to evaluate surface doses by both measurements and Monte Carlo calculations for very small field sizes. Methods All measurements were performed on a Novalis Tx linear accelerator which has a 6 MV SRS X-ray beam mode which uses a specially thin flattening filter. Beam collimation was achieved by circular cones with apertures that gave field sizes ranging from 4 to 30 mm at the isocentre. The relative surface doses were measured using Gafchromic EBT3 film which has the active layer at a depth similar to the ICRP skin dose depth. Monte Carlo calculations were performed using the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc Monte Carlo codes (V4 r225). The specifications of the linear accelerator, including the collimator, were provided by the manufacturer. Optimisation of the incident X-ray beam was achieved by an iterative adjustment of the energy, spatial distribution and radial spread of the incident electron beam striking the target. The energy cutoff parameters were PCUT = 0.01 MeV and ECUT = 0.700 - MeV. Directional bremsstrahlung splitting was switched on for all BEAMnrc calculations. Relative surface doses were determined in a layer defined in a water phantom of the same thickness and depth as compared to the active later in the film. Results Measured surface doses using the EBT3 film varied between 13 and 16 % for the different cones with an uncertainty of 3 %. Monte Carlo calculated surface doses were in agreement to better than 2 % to the measured doses for all the treatment cones. Discussion and conclusions This work has shown the consistency of surface dose measurements using EBT3 film with Monte Carlo predicted values within the uncertainty of the measurements. As such, EBT3 film is recommended for in vivo surface dose measurements.

A practical and theoretical definition of 'small field'

Introduction The consistency of measuring small field output factors is greatly increased by reporting the measured dosimetric field size of each factor, as opposed to simply stating the nominal field size [1] and therefore requires the measurement of cross-axis profiles in a water tank. However, this makes output factor measurements time consuming. This project establishes at which field size the accuracy of output factors are not affected by the use of potentially inaccurate nominal field sizes, which we believe establishes a practical working definition of a ‘small’ field. The physical components of the radiation beam that contribute to the rapid change in output factor at small field sizes are examined in detail. The physical interaction that dominates the cause of the rapid dose reduction is quantified, and leads to the establishment of a theoretical definition of a ‘small’ field. Methods Current recommendations suggest that radiation collimation systems and isocentre defining lasers should both be calibrated to permit a maximum positioning uncertainty of 1 mm [2]. The proposed practical definition for small field sizes is as follows: if the output factor changes by ±1.0 % given a change in either field size or detector position of up to ±1 mm then the field should be considered small. Monte Carlo modelling was used to simulate output factors of a 6 MV photon beam for square fields with side lengths from 4.0 to 20.0 mm in 1.0 mm increments. The dose was scored to a 0.5 mm wide and 2.0 mm deep cylindrical volume of water within a cubic water phantom, at a depth of 5 cm and SSD of 95 cm. The maximum difference due to a collimator error of ±1 mm was found by comparing the output factors of adjacent field sizes. The output factor simulations were repeated 1 mm off-axis to quantify the effect of detector misalignment. Further simulations separated the total output factor into collimator scatter factor and phantom scatter factor. The collimator scatter factor was further separated into primary source occlusion effects and ‘traditional’ effects (a combination of flattening filter and jaw scatter etc.). The phantom scatter was separated in photon scatter and electronic disequilibrium. Each of these factors was plotted as a function of field size in order to quantify how each affected the change in small field size. Results The use of our practical definition resulted in field sizes of 15 mm or less being characterised as ‘small’. The change in field size had a greater effect than that of detector misalignment. For field sizes of 12 mm or less, electronic disequilibrium was found to cause the largest change in dose to the central axis (d = 5 cm). Source occlusion also caused a large change in output factor for field sizes less than 8 mm. Discussion and conclusions The measurement of cross-axis profiles are only required for output factor measurements for field sizes of 15 mm or less (for a 6 MV beam on Varian iX linear accelerator). This is expected to be dependent on linear accelerator spot size and photon energy. While some electronic disequilibrium was shown to occur at field sizes as large as 30 mm (the ‘traditional’ definition of small field [3]), it has been shown that it does not cause a greater change than photon scatter until a field size of 12 mm, at which point it becomes by far the most dominant effect.

Monte Carlo simulations of small field output factors in solid phantoms

Introduction Total scatter factor (or output factor) in megavoltage photon dosimetry is a measure of relative dose relating a certain field size to a reference field size. The use of solid phantoms has been well established for output factor measurements, however to date these phantoms have not been tested with small fields. In this work, we evaluate the water equivalency of a number of solid phantoms for small field output factor measurements using the EGSnrc Monte Carlo code. Methods The following small square field sizes were simulated using BEAMnrc: 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 and 30 mm. Each simulated phantom geometry was created in DOSXYZnrc and consisted of a silicon diode (of length and width 1.5 mm and depth 0.5 mm) submersed in the phantom at a depth of 5 g/cm2. The source-to-detector distance was 100 cm for all simulations. The dose was scored in a single voxel at the location of the diode. Interaction probabilities and radiation transport parameters for each material were created using custom PEGS4 files. Results A comparison of the resultant output factors in the solid phantoms, compared to the same factors in a water phantom are shown in Fig. 1. The statistical uncertainty in each point was less than or equal to 0.4 %. The results in Fig. 1 show that the density of the phantoms affected the output factor results, with higher density materials (such as PMMA) resulting in higher output factors. Additionally, it was also calculated that scaling the depth for equivalent path length had negligible effect on the output factor results at these field sizes. Discussion and conclusions Electron stopping power and photon mass energy absorption change minimally with small field size [1]. Also, it can be seen from Fig. 1 that the difference from water decreases with increasing field size. Therefore, the most likely cause for the observed discrepancies in output factors is differing electron disequilibrium as a function of phantom density. When measuring small field output factors in a solid phantom, it is important that the density is very close to that of water.

Effects of small field output factors on IMRT optimisation and dose calculation

Introduction Given the known challenges of obtaining accurate measurements of small radiation fields, and the increasing use of small field segments in IMRT beams, this study examined the possible effects of referencing inaccurate field output factors in the planning of IMRT treatments. Methods This study used the Brainlab iPlan treatment planning system to devise IMRT treatment plans for delivery using the Brainlab m3 microMLC (Brainlab, Feldkirchen, Germany). Four pairs of sample IMRT treatments were planned using volumes, beams and prescriptions that were based on a set of test plans described in AAPM TG 119’s recommendations for the commissioning of IMRT treatment planning systems [1]: • C1, a set of three 4 cm volumes with different prescription doses, was modified to reduce the size of the PTV to 2 cm across and to include an OAR dose constraint for one of the other volumes. • C2, a prostate treatment, was planned as described by the TG 119 report [1]. • C3, a head-and-neck treatment with a PTV larger than 10 cm across, was excluded from the study. • C4, an 8 cm long C-shaped PTV surrounding a cylindrical OAR, was planned as described in the TG 119 report [1] and then replanned with the length of the PTV reduced to 4 cm. Both plans in each pair used the same beam angles, collimator angles, dose reference points, prescriptions and constraints. However, one of each pair of plans had its beam modulation optimisation and dose calculation completed with reference to existing iPlan beam data and the other had its beam modulation optimisation and dose calculation completed with reference to revised beam data. The beam data revisions consisted of increasing the field output factor for a 0.6 9 0.6 cm2 field by 17 % and increasing the field output factor for a 1.2 9 1.2 cm2 field by 3 %. Results The use of different beam data resulted in different optimisation results with different microMLC apertures and segment weightings between the two plans for each treatment, which led to large differences (up to 30 % with an average of 5 %) between reference point doses in each pair of plans. These point dose differences are more indicative of the modulation of the plans than of any clinically relevant changes to the overall PTV or OAR doses. By contrast, the maximum, minimum and mean doses to the PTVs and OARs were smaller (less than 1 %, for all beams in three out of four pairs of treatment plans) but are more clinically important. Of the four test cases, only the shortened (4 cm) version of TG 119’s C4 plan showed substantial differences between the overall doses calculated in the volumes of interest using the different sets of beam data and thereby suggested that treatment doses could be affected by changes to small field output factors. An analysis of the complexity of this pair of plans, using Crowe et al.’s TADA code [2], indicated that iPlan’s optimiser had produced IMRT segments comprised of larger numbers of small microMLC leaf separations than in the other three test cases. Conclusion: The use of altered small field output factors can result in substantially altered doses when large numbers of small leaf apertures are used to modulate the beams, even when treating relatively large volumes.

Development of a dose assessment tool for the auditing of radiotherapy treatment dosimetric quality

The reporting and auditing of patient dose is an important component of radiotherapy quality assurance. The manual extraction of dose-volume metrics is time consuming and undesirable when auditing the dosimetric quality of a large cohort of patient plans. A dose assessment application was written to overcome this, allowing the calculation of various dose-volume metrics for large numbers of plans exported from treatment planning systems. This application expanded on the DICOM-handling functionality of the MCDTK software suite. The software extracts dose values in the volume of interest by using a ray casting point-in-polygon algorithm, where the polygons have been defined by the contours in the RTSTRUCT file...