Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Tips and tricks about financial ratios: how to anticipate unpleasant surprises

Following recent accounting and ethical scandals within the Telecom Industry like Gowex case, old cards are laid on the table: what kind of management and control are we doing on our businesses and what use do we give to the specific tools we have at our disposition? There are indicators, that on a very specific, concise and accurate manner, aside from brief, allow us to analyze and capture the complexity of a business and also they constitute an important support when making optimal decisions. These instruments or indicators show, a priori, all relevant data from a purely economic perspective, while there also exist, the possibility of including factors that are not of this nature strictly. For instance, there are indicators that take into account the customer?s satisfaction, the corporate reputation among others. Both kind of performance indicators form, together, an integral dashboard while the pure economic side of it could be considered as a basic dashboard. Based on DuPont?s methodology, we will be able to calculate the ROI (Return on Investment) of a company from the disaggregation of very useful and much needed indicators like the ROE (Return on Equity) or the ROA (Return on Assets); thereby, we will be able to get to know, to control and, hence, to optimize the company?s leverage level, its liquidity ratio or its solvency ratio, among others; as well as the yield we will be able to obtain if our decisions and management are optimal related to the bodies of assets. Bear in mind and make the most of the abovementioned management tools and indicators that we have at our disposition, allow us to act knowing our path and taking full responsibility, as well as, to obtain the maximum planned benefits, instead of leaving them to be casual. We will be able to avoid errors that can lead the company to an unfortunate and non-desirable situation and, of course, we will detect, way in advance, the actual needs of the business in terms of accounting and financial sanitation before irreversible situations are reached.

Characteristics of patients making serious inhaler errors with a dry powder inhaler and association with asthma-related events in a primary care setting

Acknowledgements The iHARP database was funded by unrestricted grants from Mundipharma International Ltd and Research in Real-Life Ltd; these analyses were funded by an unrestricted grant from Teva Pharmaceuticals. Mundipharma and Teva played no role in study conduct or analysis and did not modify or approve the manuscript. The authors wish to direct a special appreciation to all the participants of the iHARP group who contributed data to this study and to Mundipharma, sponsors of the iHARP group. In addition, we thank Julie von Ziegenweidt for assistance with data extraction and Anna Gilchrist and Valerie L. Ashton, PhD, for editorial assistance. Elizabeth V. Hillyer, DVM, provided editorial and writing support, funded by Research in Real-Life, Ltd.

Ancient mtDNA sequences in the human nuclear genome: A potential source of errors in identifying pathogenic mutations

Nuclear-localized mtDNA pseudogenes might explain a recent report describing a heteroplasmic mtDNA molecule containing five linked missense mutations dispersed over the contiguous mtDNA CO1 and CO2 genes in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients. To test this hypothesis, we have used the PCR primers utilized in the original report to amplify CO1 and CO2 sequences from two independent ρ° (mtDNA-less) cell lines. CO1 and CO2 sequences amplified from both of the ρ° cells, demonstrating that these sequences are also present in the human nuclear DNA. The nuclear pseudogene CO1 and CO2 sequences were then tested for each of the five “AD” missense mutations by restriction endonuclease site variant assays. All five mutations were found in the nuclear CO1 and CO2 PCR products from ρ° cells, but none were found in the PCR products obtained from cells with normal mtDNA. Moreover, when the overlapping nuclear CO1 and CO2 PCR products were cloned and sequenced, all five missense mutations were found, as well as a linked synonymous mutation. Unlike the findings in the original report, an additional 32 base substitutions were found, including two in adjacent tRNAs and a two base pair deletion in the CO2 gene. Phylogenetic analysis of the nuclear CO1 and CO2 sequences revealed that they diverged from modern human mtDNAs early in hominid evolution about 770,000 years before present. These data would be consistent with the interpretation that the missense mutations proposed to cause AD may be the product of ancient mtDNA variants preserved as nuclear pseudogenes.

Complex mtDNA constitutes an approximate 620-kb insertion on Arabidopsis thaliana chromosome 2: Implication of potential sequencing errors caused by large-unit repeats

Previously conducted sequence analysis of Arabidopsis thaliana (ecotype Columbia-0) reported an insertion of 270-kb mtDNA into the pericentric region on the short arm of chromosome 2. DNA fiber-based fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses reveal that the mtDNA insert is 618 ± 42 kb, ≈2.3 times greater than that determined by contig assembly and sequencing analysis. Portions of the mitochondrial genome previously believed to be absent were identified within the insert. Sections of the mtDNA are repeated throughout the insert. The cytological data illustrate that DNA contig assembly by using bacterial artificial chromosomes tends to produce a minimal clone path by skipping over duplicated regions, thereby resulting in sequencing errors. We demonstrate that fiber-fluorescence in situ hybridization is a powerful technique to analyze large repetitive regions in the higher eukaryotic genomes and is a valuable complement to ongoing large genome sequencing projects.

Discursive constructions of social and environmental accounting in Brazil: the case of Petrobras.

In the 29 years following \"Our Common Future\" by the United Nations, there is considerable debate among governments, civil society, interest groups and business organisations about what constitutes sustainable development, which constitutes evidence for a contested discourse concerning sustainability. The purpose of this study is to understand this debate in the developing economic context of Brazil, and in particular, to understand and critique the social and environmental accounting [SEA] discursive constructions relating to the State-owned, Petrobras as well as to understand the Brazilian literature on SEA. The discourse theory [DT]-based analysis employs rhetorical redescription to analyse twenty-two reports from Petrobras from 2004-2013. I investigate the political notions by employing the methodological framework of the Logics of Critical Explanation [LCE]. LCE engenders five methodological steps: problematisation, retroduction, logics (social, political and fantasmatic), articulation and critique. The empirical discussion suggests that the hegemony of economic development operates to obfuscate, rhetorically, the development of sustainability, so as to maintain the core business of Petrobras conceived as capital accumulation. Equally, these articulations also illustrate how the constructions of SEA operate to serve the company\'s purpose with few (none) profound changes in integration of sustainability. The Brazilian literature on SEA sustains the status quo of neo-liberal market policies that operate to protect the dominant business case approach to maintain an agenda of wealth-creation in relation to social and environmental needs. The articulations of the case manifested in policies regarding, for example, corruption, which involved over-payments for contracts and unsustainable practices relating to the use of fossil fuels and demonstrated that there was antagonism between action and disclosure. The corruption scandal that emerged after SEA disclosures highlighted the rhetorical nature of disclosure when financial resources were subtracted from the company for political parties and engineering contractors hid facts through incomplete disclosures. The articulations of SEA misrepresent a broader context of the meanings associated with sustainability, which restricted the constructions of SEA to principally serve and represent the intention of the most powerful groups. The significance of SEA, then is narrowed to represent particular interests. The study argues for more critical studies as limited Brazilian literature concerning SEA kept a \'safe distance\' from substantively critiquing the constructions of SEA and its articulations in the Brazilian context. The literature review and the Petrobras\' case illustrate a variety of naming, instituting and articulatory practices that endeavour to maintain the current hegemony of development in an emerging economy, which allows Petrobras to continue to exercise significant profit at the expense of the social and environmental. The constructed idea of development in Petrobras\' discourses emphasises a rhetoric of wider development, but, in reality, these discourses were the antithesis of political, social and ethical developmental issues. These constructions aim to hide struggles between social inequalities and exploitation of natural resources and constitute excuses about a fanciful notion of rhetorical and hegemonic neo-liberal development. In summary, this thesis contributes to the prior literature in five ways: (i) the addition of DT to the analysis of SEA enhances the discussion of political elements such as hegemony, antagonism, logic of equivalence/difference, ideology and articulation; (ii) the analysis of an emerging economy such as Brazil incorporates a new perspective of the discussion of the discourses of SEA and development; (iii) this thesis includes a focus on rhetoric to discuss the maintenance of the status quo; (iv) the holistic structure of the LCE approach enlarges the understanding of the social, political and fantasmatic logics of SEA studies and; (v) this thesis combines an analysis of the literature and the case of Petrobras to characterise and critique the state of the Brazilian academy and its impacts and reflections on the significance of SEA. This thesis, therefore, argues for more critical studies in the Brazilian academy due to the persistence of idea of SEA and development that takes-for-granted deep exclusions and contradictions and provide little space for critiques.

Reducing visual deficits caused by refractive errors in school and preschool children: results of a pilot school program in the Andean region of Apurimac, Peru

Background: Refractive error is defined as the inability of the eye to bring parallel rays of light into focus on the retina, resulting in nearsightedness (myopia), farsightedness (Hyperopia) or astigmatism. Uncorrected refractive error in children is associated with increased morbidity and reduced educational opportunities. Vision screening (VS) is a method for identifying children with visual impairment or eye conditions likely to lead to visual impairment. Objective: To analyze the utility of vision screening conducted by teachers and to contribute to a better estimation of the prevalence of childhood refractive errors in Apurimac, Peru. Design: A pilot vision screening program in preschool (Group I) and elementary school children (Group II) was conducted with the participation of 26 trained teachers. Children whose visual acuity was<6/9 [20/30] (Group I) and≤6/9 (Group II) in one or both eyes, measured with the Snellen Tumbling E chart at 6 m, were referred for a comprehensive eye exam. Specificity and positive predictive value to detect refractive error were calculated against clinical examination. Program assessment with participants was conducted to evaluate outcomes and procedures. Results: A total sample of 364 children aged 3–11 were screened; 45 children were examined at Centro Oftalmológico Monseñor Enrique Pelach (COMEP) Eye Hospital. Prevalence of refractive error was 6.2% (Group I) and 6.9% (Group II); specificity of teacher vision screening was 95.8% and 93.0%, while positive predictive value was 59.1% and 47.8% for each group, respectively. Aspects highlighted to improve the program included extending training, increasing parental involvement, and helping referred children to attend the hospital. Conclusion: Prevalence of refractive error in children is significant in the region. Vision screening performed by trained teachers is a valid intervention for early detection of refractive error, including screening of preschool children. Program sustainability and improvements in education and quality of life resulting from childhood vision screening require further research.

Terminology and French-Spanish business translation: evaluating terminology resources for the translation of accounting documents

This article is the English version of “Terminología y traducción económica francés-español: evaluación de recursos terminológicos en el ámbito contable” by Daniel Gallego Hernández. It was not published on the print version of MonTI for reasons of space. The online version of MonTI does not suffer from these limitations, and this is our way of promoting plurilingualism.

Efficient Mitigation of Data and Control Flow Errors in Microprocessors

The use of microprocessor-based systems is gaining importance in application domains where safety is a must. For this reason, there is a growing concern about the mitigation of SEU and SET effects. This paper presents a new hybrid technique aimed to protect both the data and the control-flow of embedded applications running on microprocessors. On one hand, the approach is based on software redundancy techniques for correcting errors produced in the data. On the other hand, control-flow errors can be detected by reusing the on-chip debug interface, existing in most modern microprocessors. Experimental results show an important increase in the system reliability even superior to two orders of magnitude, in terms of mitigation of both SEUs and SETs. Furthermore, the overheads incurred by our technique can be perfectly assumable in low-cost systems.

Errors Associated to Keratoconus Grading using Systems based on Corneal Power

Purpose: To analyze and define the possible errors that may be introduced in keratoconus classification when the keratometric corneal power is used in such classification. Materials and methods: Retrospective study including a total of 44 keratoconus eyes. A comprehensive ophthalmologic examination was performed in all cases, which included a corneal analysis with the Pentacam system (Oculus). Classical keratometric corneal power (Pk), Gaussian corneal power (Pc Gauss), True Net Power (TNP) (Gaussian power neglecting the corneal thickness effect), and an adjusted keratometric corneal power (Pkadj) (keratometric power considering a variable keratometric index) were calculated. All cases included in the study were classified according to five different classification systems: Alió-Shabayek, Amsler-Krumeich, Rabinowitz-McDonnell, collaborative longitudinal evaluation of keratoconus (CLEK), and McMahon. Results: When Pk and Pkadj were compared, differences in the type of grading of keratoconus cases was found in 13.6% of eyes when the Alió-Shabayek or the Amsler-Krumeich systems were used. Likewise, grading differences were observed in 22.7% of eyes with the Rabinowitz-McDonnell and McMahon classification systems and in 31.8% of eyes with the CLEK classification system. All reclassified cases using Pkadj were done in a less severe stage, indicating that the use of Pk may lead to the classification of a cornea as keratoconus, being normal. In general, the results obtained using Pkadj, Pc Gauss or the TNP were equivalent. Differences between Pkadj and Pc Gauss were within ± 0.7D. Conclusion: The use of classical keratometric corneal power may lead to incorrect grading of the severity of keratoconus, with a trend to a more severe grading.

Accounting notes related to rent and the Middle Street School, 1798-1802

One leaf containing handwritten financial notes related to the closing of the Middle Street School and subsequent rent payments.

B. Miscellaneous accounting statements, 1781-1819

This subseries contains five one-page account statements consisting of "Col. Marshall's Account" for 1781 to 1790; washing charges in 1800; payments in 1807 and 1808 to "Mrs. C."; credits and debits for 1812-1813; and a statement of money received from the Pemberton Fund between 1812 and 1819.

Notes of proceedings and cases determined in the high court of errors and appeals, the court of chancery, and the orphans court of the state of Delaware, 1792-1832

Contains summaries of cases heard by the Delaware Supreme Court and the Delaware Appeals Court in the counties of Sussex, Kent, and Newcastle covering a variety of legal topics. Supposedly based on Wilson's Red Book.