Robust scenario formulations for strategic supply chain optimization under uncertainty

Strategic supply chain optimization (SCO) problems are often modelled as a two-stage optimization problem, in which the first-stage variables represent decisions on the development of the supply chain and the second-stage variables represent decisions on the operations of the supply chain. When uncertainty is explicitly considered, the problem becomes an intractable infinite-dimensional optimization problem, which is usually solved approximately via a scenario or a robust approach. This paper proposes a novel synergy of the scenario and robust approaches for strategic SCO under uncertainty. Two formulations are developed, namely, naïve robust scenario formulation and affinely adjustable robust scenario formulation. It is shown that both formulations can be reformulated into tractable deterministic optimization problems if the uncertainty is bounded with the infinity-norm, and the uncertain equality constraints can be reformulated into deterministic constraints without assumption of the uncertainty region. Case studies of a classical farm planning problem and an energy and bioproduct SCO problem demonstrate the advantages of the proposed formulations over the classical scenario formulation. The proposed formulations not only can generate solutions with guaranteed feasibility or indicate infeasibility of a problem, but also can achieve optimal expected economic performance with smaller numbers of scenarios.

Rise, fragmentation, infringement and fear: emerging urban issues in Chinese clustering in Italy

China is today facing rapid economic development and the long-term implications of China’s rise for European economy, society and culture, are constantly debated but still almost unknown. Moreover, only recently a new volume edited by Kunzmann has clearly pointed out a particular field of research like the EU spatial impact of China’s convergence in the global market. The aim of the present paper is to deal with the spatial issues related to the growing Chinese communities, especially in Italy, that are part of a more general and considerable transformation process of the traditional Chinese enclaves in EU cities: from recognizable “Chinatowns” to new hybrid urban formations where housing, retail, wholesale and even commodity production often tend to match. Key-Concepts like rise, fragmentation, infringement and fear are useful in analysing some of the more controversial socio-economic dynamics of Chinese clusters especially in a traditionally manufactured-based country like Italy, where it’s recognizable a unique paradox of a “double competition” from outside and from inside. This statement poses a serious threat to local economic systems in terms of sustainability and social cohesion, making it necessary to rethink the role and the nature of public action in facing new forms of marginality at urban and regional level.

Clustering in non-parametric multivariate analyses.

Non-parametric multivariate analyses of complex ecological datasets are widely used. Following appropriate pre-treatment of the data inter-sample resemblances are calculated using appropriate measures. Ordination and clustering derived from these resemblances are used to visualise relationships among samples (or variables). Hierarchical agglomerative clustering with group-average (UPGMA) linkage is often the clustering method chosen. Using an example dataset of zooplankton densities from the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary, UK, a range of existing and new clustering methods are applied and the results compared. Although the examples focus on analysis of samples, the methods may also be applied to species analysis. Dendrograms derived by hierarchical clustering are compared using cophenetic correlations, which are also used to determine optimum  in flexible beta clustering. A plot of cophenetic correlation against original dissimilarities reveals that a tree may be a poor representation of the full multivariate information. UNCTREE is an unconstrained binary divisive clustering algorithm in which values of the ANOSIM R statistic are used to determine (binary) splits in the data, to form a dendrogram. A form of flat clustering, k-R clustering, uses a combination of ANOSIM R and Similarity Profiles (SIMPROF) analyses to determine the optimum value of k, the number of groups into which samples should be clustered, and the sample membership of the groups. Robust outcomes from the application of such a range of differing techniques to the same resemblance matrix, as here, result in greater confidence in the validity of a clustering approach.

Clustering in non-parametric multivariate analyses.

Non-parametric multivariate analyses of complex ecological datasets are widely used. Following appropriate pre-treatment of the data inter-sample resemblances are calculated using appropriate measures. Ordination and clustering derived from these resemblances are used to visualise relationships among samples (or variables). Hierarchical agglomerative clustering with group-average (UPGMA) linkage is often the clustering method chosen. Using an example dataset of zooplankton densities from the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary, UK, a range of existing and new clustering methods are applied and the results compared. Although the examples focus on analysis of samples, the methods may also be applied to species analysis. Dendrograms derived by hierarchical clustering are compared using cophenetic correlations, which are also used to determine optimum  in flexible beta clustering. A plot of cophenetic correlation against original dissimilarities reveals that a tree may be a poor representation of the full multivariate information. UNCTREE is an unconstrained binary divisive clustering algorithm in which values of the ANOSIM R statistic are used to determine (binary) splits in the data, to form a dendrogram. A form of flat clustering, k-R clustering, uses a combination of ANOSIM R and Similarity Profiles (SIMPROF) analyses to determine the optimum value of k, the number of groups into which samples should be clustered, and the sample membership of the groups. Robust outcomes from the application of such a range of differing techniques to the same resemblance matrix, as here, result in greater confidence in the validity of a clustering approach.

An implementation architecture for scenario-based simulations

The past years have witnessed an increased use of applied games for developing and evaluating communication skills. These skills benefit from in-terpersonal interactions. Providing feedback to students practicing communica-tion skills is difficult in a traditional class setting with one teacher and many students. This logistic challenge may be partly overcome by providing training using a simulation in which a student practices with communication scenarios. A scenario is a description of a series of interactions, where at each step the player is faced with a choice. We have developed a scenario editor that enables teachers to develop scenarios for practicing communication skills. A teacher can develop a scenario without knowledge of the implementation. This paper presents the implementation architecture for such a scenario-based simulation.

D5.5 – First Version Scenario Arrangement Document – round 1

This deliverable outlines the implementation plan for each of the first-round studies of the RAGE pilots. The main goal of these pilots is to perform a small-scale test of the RAGE games with end-users and intermediary stakeholders in five different non-leisure domains to guide the further development of the games for the final validation studies. At the same time the pilots implement the pre-testing of the research instruments and methodology for answering the main evaluation questions in the five areas of investigation identified in D8.1: 1) usability, 2) game experience, 3) learning effectiveness, 4) transfer effect and 5) pedagogical costs and benefits. Finally, the pilots are aimed at collecting preliminary results for a first formative evaluation of the games and game technologies, with the goal of feeding back useful information to development for the final versions of games and assets. The results of the first pilot will be compared with the results of the final evaluation studies to demonstrate improvements of the game and game effects from first to final version. A revision of the deliverable will be done in the next few months to produce the final arrangement document (D5.1, due at M21).

Extracting Patterns from Educational Traces via Clustering and Associated Quality Metrics

Clustering algorithms, pattern mining techniques and associated quality metrics emerged as reliable methods for modeling learners’ performance, comprehension and interaction in given educational scenarios. The specificity of available data such as missing values, extreme values or outliers, creates a challenge to extract significant user models from an educational perspective. In this paper we introduce a pattern detection mechanism with-in our data analytics tool based on k-means clustering and on SSE, silhouette, Dunn index and Xi-Beni index quality metrics. Experiments performed on a dataset obtained from our online e-learning platform show that the extracted interaction patterns were representative in classifying learners. Furthermore, the performed monitoring activities created a strong basis for generating automatic feedback to learners in terms of their course participation, while relying on their previous performance. In addition, our analysis introduces automatic triggers that highlight learners who will potentially fail the course, enabling tutors to take timely actions.

Numerical study of neutron beam divergence in a beam-fusion scenario employing laser driven ions

The most established route to create a laser-based neutron source is by employing laser accelerated, low atomic-number ions in fusion reactions. In addition to the high reaction cross-sections at moderate energies of the projectile ions, the anisotropy in neutron emission is another important feature of beam-fusion reactions. Using a simple numerical model based on neutron generation in a pitcher–catcher scenario, anisotropy in neutron emission was studied for the deuterium–deuterium fusion reaction. Simulation results are consistent with the narrow-divergence ( ∼ 70 ° full width at half maximum) neutron beam recently served in an experiment employing multi-MeV deuteron beams of narrow divergence (up to 30° FWHM, depending on the ion energy) accelerated by a sub-petawatt laser pulse from thin deuterated plastic foils via the Target Normal Sheath Acceleration mechanism. By varying the input ion beam parameters, simulations show that a further improvement in the neutron beam directionality (i.e. reduction in the beam divergence) can be obtained by increasing the projectile ion beam temperature and cut-off energy, as expected from interactions employing higher power lasers at upcoming facilities.

MixKMeans: Clustering Question-Answer Archives

Community-driven Question Answering (CQA) systems that crowdsource experiential information in the form of questions and answers and have accumulated valuable reusable knowledge. Clustering of QA datasets from CQA systems provides a means of organizing the content to ease tasks such as manual curation and tagging. In this paper, we present a clustering method that exploits the two-part question-answer structure in QA datasets to improve clustering quality. Our method, {\it MixKMeans}, composes question and answer space similarities in a way that the space on which the match is higher is allowed to dominate. This construction is motivated by our observation that semantic similarity between question-answer data (QAs) could get localized in either space. We empirically evaluate our method on a variety of real-world labeled datasets. Our results indicate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art clustering methods for the task of clustering question-answer archives.

Abnormal Pedestrian Trajectory analysis based on arbitrary-length clustering

This papers examines the use of trajectory distance measures and clustering techniques to define normal
and abnormal trajectories in the context of pedestrian tracking in public spaces. In order to detect abnormal
trajectories, what is meant by a normal trajectory in a given scene is firstly defined. Then every trajectory
that deviates from this normality is classified as abnormal. By combining Dynamic Time Warping and a
modified K-Means algorithms for arbitrary-length data series, we have developed an algorithm for trajectory
clustering and abnormality detection. The final system performs with an overall accuracy of 83% and 75%
when tested in two different standard datasets.

Respiratory virus-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) and viral clustering in Malawian children in a setting with a high prevalence of HIV, malaria and malnutrition

BACKGROUND:  We used four years of paediatric severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) sentinel surveillance in Blantyre, Malawi to identify factors associated with clinical severity and co-viral clustering.

METHODS:  From January 2011 to December 2014, 2363 children aged 3 months to 14 years presenting to hospital with SARI were enrolled. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were tested for influenza and other respiratory viruses. We assessed risk factors for clinical severity and conducted clustering analysis to identify viral clusters in children with co-viral detection.

RESULTS:  Hospital-attended influenza-positive SARI incidence was 2.0 cases per 10,000 children annually; it was highest children aged under 1 year (6.3 cases per 10,000), and HIV-infected children aged 5 to 9 years (6.0 cases per 10,000). 605 (26.8%) SARI cases had warning signs, which were positively associated with HIV infection (adjusted risk ratio [aRR]: 2.4, 95% CI: 1.4, 3.9), RSV infection (aRR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.3, 3.0) and rainy season (aRR: 2.4, 95% CI: 1.6, 3.8). We identified six co-viral clusters; one cluster was associated with SARI with warning signs.

CONCLUSIONS:  Influenza vaccination may benefit young children and HIV infected children in this setting. Viral clustering may be associated with SARI severity; its assessment should be included in routine SARI surveillance.

Clustering-based Query Routing in Cooperative Semi-structured Peer to Peer Networks

We consider the problem of resource selection in clustered Peer-to-Peer Information Retrieval (P2P IR) networks with cooperative peers. The clustered P2P IR framework presents a significant departure from general P2P IR architectures by employing clustering to ensure content coherence between resources at the resource selection layer, without disturbing document allocation. We propose that such a property could be leveraged in resource selection by adapting well-studied and popular inverted lists for centralized document retrieval. Accordingly, we propose the Inverted PeerCluster Index (IPI), an approach that adapts the inverted lists, in a straightforward manner, for resource selection in clustered P2P IR. IPI also encompasses a strikingly simple peer-specific scoring mechanism that exploits the said index for resource selection. Through an extensive empirical analysis on P2P IR testbeds, we establish that IPI competes well with the sophisticated state-of-the-art methods in virtually every parameter of interest for the resource selection task, in the context of clustered P2P IR.

The £ for lb challenge – a lose – win – win scenario. Results from a novel workplace-based, peer-led weight management programme

Title: The £ for lb. Challenge – A lose - win – win scenario. Results from a novel workplace-based, peer-led weight management programme in 2016.

Names: Damien Bennett, Declan Bradley, Angela McComb, Amy Kiernan, Tracey Owen

Background: Tackling obesity is a public health priority. The £ for lb. Challenge is the first country wide, workplace-based peer-led weight management programme in the UK or Ireland with participants from a range of private and public businesses in Northern Ireland (NI).
Intervention: The intervention was workplace-based, led by workplace Champions and based on the NHS Choices 12 week weight loss guide. It operated from January to April 2016. Overweight and obese adult workers were eligible. Training of Peer Champions (staff volunteers) involved two half day workshops delivered by dieticians and physical activity professionals.
Outcome measurement: Weight was measured at enrolment and 12 weekly intervals. Changes in weight, % weight, BMI and % BMI were determined for the whole cohort and sex and deprivation subgroups.
Results: There were 1513 eligible participants from 35 companies. Engagement rate was 98%. 75% of participants completed the programme. Mean weight loss was 2.4 kg or 2.7%. Almost a quarter (24%) lost at least 5% initial bodyweight. Male participants were over twice as likely to complete the programme and three times more likely to lose 5% body weight or more. Over £17,000 was raised for NI charities.
Discussion: The £ for lb. Challenge is a successful health improvement programme with important weight loss for many participants, particularly male workers. With high levels of user engagement and ownership and successful multidisciplinary collaboration between public health, voluntary bodies, private and public companies it is a novel workplace based model with potential to expand.

LDA-TM : A two-step approach to twitter topic data clustering

The Twitter System is the biggest social network in the world, and everyday millions of tweets are posted and talked about, expressing various views and opinions. A large variety of research activities have been conducted to study how the opinions can be clustered and analyzed, so that some tendencies can be uncovered. Due to the inherent weaknesses of the tweets - very short texts and very informal styles of writing - it is rather hard to make an investigation of tweet data analysis giving results with good performance and accuracy. In this paper, we intend to attack the problem from another aspect - using a two-layer structure to analyze the twitter data: LDA with topic map modelling. The experimental results demonstrate that this approach shows a progress in twitter data analysis. However, more experiments with this method are expected in order to ensure that the accurate analytic results can be maintained.