Market anomalies and tactical asset allocation: Utilising market anomalies in multiple asset class portfolios with the Black−Litterman model

This thesis discusses the basic problem of the modern portfolio theory about how to optimise the perfect allocation for an investment portfolio. The theory provides a solution for an efficient portfolio, which minimises the risk of the portfolio with respect to the expected return. A central feature for all the portfolios on the efficient frontier is that the investor needs to provide the expected return for each asset. Market anomalies are persistent patterns seen in the financial markets, which cannot be explained with the current asset pricing theory. The goal of this thesis is to study whether these anomalies can be observed among different asset classes. Finally, if persistent patterns are found, it is investigated whether the anomalies hold valuable information for determining the expected returns used in the portfolio optimization Market anomalies and investment strategies based on them are studied with a rolling estimation window, where the return for the following period is always based on historical information. This is also crucial when rebalancing the portfolio. The anomalies investigated within this thesis are value, momentum, reversal, and idiosyncratic volatility. The research data includes price series of country level stock indices, government bonds, currencies, and commodities. The modern portfolio theory and the views given by the anomalies are combined by utilising the Black-Litterman model. This makes it possible to optimise the portfolio so that investor’s views are taken into account. When constructing the portfolios, the goal is to maximise the Sharpe ratio. Significance of the results is studied by assessing if the strategy yields excess returns in a relation to those explained by the threefactormodel. The most outstanding finding is that anomaly based factors include valuable information to enhance efficient portfolio diversification. When the highest Sharpe ratios for each asset class are picked from the test factors and applied to the Black−Litterman model, the final portfolio results in superior riskreturn combination. The highest Sharpe ratios are provided by momentum strategy for stocks and long-term reversal for the rest of the asset classes. Additionally, a strategy based on the value effect was highly appealing, and it basically performs as well as the previously mentioned Sharpe strategy. When studying the anomalies, it is found, that 12-month momentum is the strongest effect, especially for stock indices. In addition, a high idiosyncratic volatility seems to be positively correlated with country indices on stocks.

Stability studies and shelf life estimation of a soy-based dessert

This work is aimed at evaluating the physicochemical, physical, chromatic, microbiological, and sensorial stability of a non-dairy dessert elaborated with soy, guava juice, and oligofructose for 60 days at refrigerated storage as well as to estimate its shelf life time. The titrable acidity, pH, instrumental color, water activity, ascorbic acid, and physical stability were measured. Panelists (n = 50) from the campus community used a hedonic scale to assess the acceptance, purchase intent, creaminess, flavor, taste, acidity, color, and overall appearance of the dessert during 60 days. The data showed that the parameters differed significantly (p < 0.05) from the initial time, and they could be fitted in mathematical equations with coefficient of determination above 71%, aiming to consider them suitable for prediction purposes. Creaminess and acceptance did not differ statistically in the 60-day period; taste, flavor, and acidity kept a suitable hedonic score during storage. Notwithstanding, the sample showed good physical stability against gravity and presented more than 15% of the Brazilian Daily Recommended Value of copper, iron, and ascorbic acid. The product shelf life estimation found was 79 days considering the overall acceptance, acceptance index and purchase intent.

Stability of cassava flour-based food bars

The consumption of Brazilian cassava has been reduced due to a lack of adjustment to the modern lifestyle. To reverse this trend, new products could be developed specifically targeted to high-value niche markets. Cereal bars stand out as fast food high in nutritional value. A bar formula mimicking cereal bars was prepared using a mixture of Brazilian cassava flour, hydrogenated vegetable fat, dried bananas, ground cashew nuts, and glucose syrup. After being pressed, the bars were dried for 1 hour at 65 °C, packaged in films, and stored under ambient conditions. Its stability was continuously monitored for 210 days in order to ensure its safety and enable its introduction to the market. Texture loss was observed in the packed bars after 90 days of storage, but the sensory characteristics allowed the testers to perceive this tendency after only 30 days of storage. However, chemical, physical, and microbial analyses confirmed that the bars were safe for consumption for 180 days. The results showed that a 45 g cassava flour-based bar enriched with nuts and dried fruits can meet 6% of the recommended daily fiber intake with a caloric value between that of the common cereal bar and that of an energy bar. Adapting the formula with ingredients (fruits, nuts) from different regions of Brazil may add value to this traditional product as a fast food.

Ability of a Lactobacillus rhamnosus strain cultured in milk whey based medium to bind aflatoxin B1

This study aimed to compare Lactobacillus rhamnosus growth in MRS (de Man, Rogosa and Sharpe) broth and a culture medium containing milk whey (MMW) and to evaluate aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) adsorption capacity by bacterial cells produced in both culture media. L. rhamnosus cells were cultivated in MRS broth and MMW (37 °C, 24 hours), and bacterial cell concentration was determined spectrophotometrically at 600 nm. AFB1 (1 µg/ml) adsorption assays were conducted using 1 x 10(10) non-viable L. rhamnosus cells (121 °C, 15 minutes) at pHs 3.0 and 6.0 and contact time of 60 minutes. AFB1 quantification was performed by High Performance Liquid Chromatography. Bacterial cell concentration in MMW was higher (9.84 log CFU/ml) than that in MRS broth (9.63 log CFU/ml). There were no significant differences between AFB1 binding results at the same pH value (3.0 or 6.0) for the cells cultivated in MRS broth (46.0% and 35.8%, respectively) and in MMW (43.7% and 25.8%, respectively), showing that MMW can adequately replace the MRS broth. Therefore, it can be concluded that the use of L. rhamnosus cells cultivated in MMW offers advantages such as reduction in large scale production costs, improvement of environmental sustainability, and being a practicable alternative for decontamination of food products susceptible to aflatoxin contamination.

Enrichment of nutritional value of Phyllanthus emblica fruit juice using the probiotic bacterium, Lactobacillus paracasei HII01 mediated fermentation

The fermented herbal juices are capable of curing and preventing diseases and reducing the aging progress. The present study was performed to investigate the fermentation of Phyllanthus emblica fruit by Lactobacillus paracasei HII01 with respect to carbon sources, polyphenols, and antioxidant properties. The physical changes, for instance, color, odor, taste, turbidity and gas formation, throughout the fermentation process was manually monitored. The fermented product was rich in polyphenolic content. The acid content and pH of the product were under the norms of Thai community product standards. Antioxidant properties of the fermented product were proved using ABTS, and FRAP assays. Chelation based study suggested that fermented P. emblica fruit juices are healthy enough to stabilize the oxidized form of the metal ion. The optimum fermentation period was 15 days. All the results supported that studied carbon sources did not interfere with the quality of the product. This report is the prelude study on the use of probiotic starter culture for the production of P. emblica fruit based lactic acid bacteria fermented beverages (LAFB) enriched with bioactive compounds. Further research on the impact of different carbon sources and upstream processes on the quality of LAFB is currently in progress.

Reputational Risk Management as a key element for business continuity and value maximization

This thesis reveals the topic of reputational risk management as a key element for business continuity and value maximization. The purpose of the work is to investigate reputational risk from the side of its definition, management (including legal requirements on this risk category) and measurement and to analyse reputational risk’s impact on business continuity and value maximization. To be able to do this, different respective articles, reports of financial institutions are gathered and constructive summaries and analysis are made. In order to deeply investigate the impact of reputational risk on business continuity and value maximization, it was chosen to study it from three aspects: 1) check the impact of stock valuation of 7 companies that experienced reputational catastrophe / risk, 2) analyse a case study on disagreements in management of reputational risk among case companies and impact on their respective performance, and 3) conduct a survey of financial sector companies in Liechtenstein to see how reputational risk management works in practice. The findings of the research showed a significant impact of reputation decadence on company’s value and trading volume, and showed crucial importance of post-crisis management for the company’s financial performance. The results of the qualitative research based on survey proved that companies consider reputational risk management as a one of the key elements for their business continuity and value maximization.

Value creation in intelligent packaging value chains

The goal of this thesis is to look for and point out problems and bottlenecks related to value chains and networks in initiation and implementation of intelligent packaging. The research is based on interviews in different case companies and is qualitative by nature. The interview results are examined through a framework built upon relevant theory, with the aim to present a useful recommendation for a supplier company for advancing intelligent packaging business. The perspective that is attained through the research questions demonstrates the potential customer companies’ views of possibilities and problems. The key results suggest that intellectual property of relevant products is in an important position from the customers’ perspective. If the supplier does not own a product technology, a sufficiently large company can consider working as an integrator in a network where smaller companies make use of a compiled offering from other smaller actors. The foundation for these networks and company relationships is value creation, which has to be based on profound customer knowledge and research. The framework that is created for this study builds upon earlier research to provide a model that better serves intelligent packaging implementation and includes the notion of importance of value proposition and continuous value co-creation.

Lean Product Management – Enhancing Product Managers' Ability to Create Value

The purpose of this master’s thesis was to study the opportunity to apply Lean practices to product management function which happens in an office environment. Since product management plays an important role in the company’s success story, it’s important to have it functioning as effectively as possible. The goal was to find those Lean tools and methods that fit the best to the needs of product management. The research was conducted as a qualitative action research which comprises a comprehensive literature review and a single case study. Theoretical information about Lean Thinking and product management was collected from articles, literature and Internet sources. Moreover, empirical data was collected by conducting interviews in the Case Company’s product management department in order to gain an in-depth understanding of product management’s problematics. The results indicate that most of the product management challenges could be overcome by applying Lean practises. Based on the usability rate, which has been discussed in the empirical part of this study, the most suitable Lean practises for product management function are: value stream mapping, Kanban and KPIs.

How Is Credit Risk Estimated? Discussion and Evidence based on Cross-Industry Sample Utilizing the KMV Model

The purpose of this thesis is to focus on credit risk estimation. Different credit risk estimation methods and characteristics of credit risk are discussed. The study is twofold, including an interview of a credit risk specialist and a quantitative section. Quantitative section applies the KMV model to estimate credit risk of 12 sample companies from three different industries: automobile, banking and financial sector and technology. Timeframe of the estimation is one year. On the basis of the KMV model and the interview, implications for analysis of credit risk are discussed. The KMV model yields consistent results with the existing credit ratings. However, banking and financial sector requires calibration of the model due to high leverage of the industry. Credit risk is considerably driven by leverage, value and volatility of assets. Credit risk models produce useful information on credit worthiness of a business. Yet, quantitative models often require qualitative support in the decision-making situation.

Cardiac Imaging in the Diagnosis of Coronary Artery Disease: The Value of Quantitative Imaging of Myocardial Perfusion and Deformation

Atherosclerosis is a chronic and progressive disease of the vasculature. Increasing coronary atherosclerosis can lead to obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) or myocardial infarction. Computed tomography angiography (CTA) allows noninvasive assessment of coronary anatomy and quantitation of atherosclerotic burden. Myocardial blood flow (MBF) can be accurately measured in absolute terms (mL/g/min) by positron emission tomography (PET) with [15O] H O as a radiotracer. We studied the coronary microvascular dysfunction as a risk factor for future coronary calcification in healthy young men by measuring the coronary flow reserve (CFR) which is the ratio between resting and hyperemic MBF. Impaired vasodilator function was not linked with accelerated atherosclerosis 11 years later. Currently, there is a global interest in quantitative PET perfusion imaging. We established optimal thresholds of [15O] H O PET perfusion for diagnosis of CAD (hyperemic MBF of 2.3 mL/g/min and CFR of 2.5) in the first multicenter study of this type (Turku, Amsterdam and Uppsala). In myocardial bridging a segment of the coronary artery travels inside the myocardium and can be seen as intramural course (CTA) or systolic compression (invasive coronary angiography). Myocardial bridging is frequently linked with proximal atherosclerotic plaques. We used quantitative [15O] H O PET perfusion to evaluate the hemodynamic effects of myocardial bridging. Myocardial bridging was not associated with decreased absolute MBF or increased atherosclerotic burden. Speckle tracking allows quantitative echocardiographic imaging of myocardial deformation. Speckle tracking during dobutamine stress echocardiography was feasible and comparable to subjective wall motion analysis in the diagnosis of CAD. In addition, it correctly risk stratified patients with multivessel disease and extensive ischemia.

Performance of value and momentum strategies in the Swedish stock market

This thesis investigates the performance of value and momentum strategies in the Swedish stock market during the 2000-2015 sample period. In addition the performance of some value and value-momentum combination is examined. The data consists of all the publicly traded companies in the Swedish stock market between 2000-2015. P/E, P/B, P/S, EV/EBITDA, EV/S ratios and 3, 6 and 12 months value criteria are used in the portfolio formation. In addition to single selection criteria, combination of P/E and P/B (aka. Graham number), the average ranking of the five value criteria and EV/EBIT – 3 month momentum combination is used as a portfolio-formation criterion. The stocks are divided into quintile portfolios based on each selection criterion. The portfolios are reformed once a year using the April’s price information and previous year’s financial information. The performance of the portfolios is examined based on average annual return, the Sharpe ratio and the Jensen alpha. The results show that the value-momentum combination is the best-performing portfolio both during the whole sample period and during the sub-period that started after the 2007-financial crisis.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

The Impact of Acquisitions on Share Pricing and Long Term Performance – Empirical Evidence from the Global Automotive Industry

Automotive industry has faced intense consolidation pressure, which has lead to increasing number of M&As. However, empirical evidence has given controversial results suggesting that most of M&As are value destructive for acquiring companies and for acquiring companies’ shareholders. The objective of this master’s thesis is to examine how acquiring companies’ shareholders react to acquisition announcement and is the reaction in line with the long-term performance. This study uses empirical evidence from automotive industry, which has been characterized as an industry that holds large amount of vertical and horizontal synergies. Transaction data consists of 65 acquisitions made by publicly listed companies between 2008-2010. The short-term impact is tested by applying event study methodology while the long term operative performance is examined with accounting study methodology. The event study results indicate that during the three days after acquisition (t= 0-2), the acquiring firms’ stocks generate an abnormal return of 1.22% on average across all acquisitions. When long term performance is studied it is evident that acquiring companies perform better than the industry median pre- and post-transaction but there is no statistically significant evidence that the performance has increased. The only performance ratio indicating statistically significant decrease is Return on Equity (ROE). On long-term horizontal acquisitions seem to outperform conglomerate ones but otherwise deal characteristics do not have any statistically significant impact.

Customer Value Creation in Born Global Companies

The purpose of this master's thesis is to study customer value creation in born global companies. The main objective is to identify the types of value enabling customer value creation in born global companies, and to establish their relative importance. After an introduction to the born global academic literature and the customer value creation literature, the empirical part consists of a multiple case study, examining the state of customer value creation in the case companies, along with the subsequent analysis. The results of this research indicate that high-tech born global companies perceive customer value creation as a crucial function of their operations, but their value creation thinking is often one-dimensional. Technology based born globals often place high value on the product and the technology behind it, mainly striving to incorporate performance- and relationship value in their value offerings, but they're unable to utilize their opportunity creation to the fullest, and they lag behind their more established competitors that are able to diversify their value offerings.

Dynamic capabilities as enablers of value co-creation between an MBA school and its students

This study presents an understanding of how a U.S. based, international MBA school has been able to achieve competitive advantage within a relatively short period of time. A framework is built to comprehend how the dynamic capability and value co-creation theories are connected and to understand how the dynamic capabilities have enabled value co-creation to happen between the school and its students, leading to such competitive advantage for the school. The data collection method followed a qualitative single-case study with a process perspective. Seven semi-structured interviews were made in September and October of 2015; one current employee of the MBA school was interviewed, with the other six being graduates and/or former employees of the MBA school. In addition, the researcher has worked as a recruiter at the MBA school, enabling to build bridges and a coherent whole of the empirical findings. Data analysis was conducted by first identifying themes from interviews, after which a narrative was written and a causal network model was built. Thus, a combination of thematic analysis, narrative and grounded theory were used as data analysis methods. This study finds that value co-creation is enabled by the dynamic capabilities of the MBA school; also capabilities would not be dynamic if value co-creation did not take place. Thus, this study presents that even though the two theories represent different level analyses, they are intertwined and together they can help to explain competitive advantage. The MBA case school’s dynamic capabilities are identified to be the sales & marketing capabilities and international market creation capabilities, thus the study finds that the MBA school does not only co-create value with existing students (customers) in the school setting, but instead, most of the value co-creation happens between the school and the student cohorts (network) already in the recruiting phase. Therefore, as a theoretical implication, the network should be considered as part of the context. The main value created seem to lie in the MBA case school’s international setting & networks. MBA schools around the world can learn from this study; schools should try to find their own niche and specialize, based on their own values and capabilities. With a differentiating focus and a unique and practical content, the schools can and should be well-marketed and proactively sold in order to receive more student applications and enhance competitive advantage. Even though an MBA school can effectively be treated as a business, as the study shows, the main emphasis should still be on providing quality education. Good content with efficient marketing can be the winning combination for an MBA school.