Simulation of the Impact of Dams and Fishing Weirs on Reproductive Potential of Silver-Phase American Eels in the Kennebec River Basin, Maine

I modeled the cumulative impact of hydroelectric projects with and without commercial fishing weirs and water-control dams on the production, survival to the sea, and potential fecundity of migrating female silver-phase American eels, Anguilla rostrata in the Kennebec River basin, Maine, This river basin has 22 hydroelectric projects, 73 water-control dams, and 15 commercial fishing weir sites. The modeled area included an 8,324 km(2) segment of the drainage area between Merrymeeting Bay and the upper limit of American eel distribution in the basin. One set of input,, (assumed or real values) concerned population structure (Le., population density and sex ratio changes throughout the basin, female length-class distribution, and drainage area between dams), Another set concerned factors influencing survival and potential fecundity of migrating American eels (i.e., pathway sequences through projects, survival rate per project by length-class. and length-fecundity relationship). Under baseline conditions about 402,400 simulated silver female American eels would be produced annually reductions in their numbers due to dams and weirs would reduce the realized fecundity (i.e., the number of eggs produced by all females that survived the migration). Without weirs or water-control dams, about 63% of the simulated silverphase American eels survived their freshwater spawning migration run to the sea when the survival rate at each hydroelectric dam was 9017, 40% survived at 80% survival per dam, and 18% survived at 60% survival per dam. Removing the lowermost hydroelectric dam on the Kennebec River increased survival by 6.0-7.6% for the basin. The efficient commercial weirs reduced survival to the sea to 69-76%( of what it would have been without weirs', regardless of survival rates at hydroelectric dams. Water-control dams had little impact on production in this basin because most were located in the upper reaches of tributaries. Sensitivity analysis led to the conclusion that small changes in population density and female length distribution had greater effects on survival and realized fecundity than similar changes in turbine survival rate. The latter became more important as turbine survival rate decreased. Therefore, it might be more fruitful to determine population distribution in basins of interest than to determine mortality rate at each hydroelectric project.

Kelp Beds as Habitat for American Lobster Homarus Americanus

The American lobster Homarus americanus and kelp Laminaria longicruris and L. saccharina are prominent and often intimately associated members of the subtidal community in the western North Atlantic Ocean. However, no one has identified the nature of this relationship or specifically investigated whether kelp beds are a superior habitat for lobsters. We conducted field studies in 1990 and 1991 at a coastal site centrally located along the Gulf of Maine, USA, to determine how lobsters use kelp beds as habitat. Identically sized and spaced plots of live and artificial (plastic) kelp were established and monitored for lobster population densities. Adjacent featureless sediment plots of identical size served as controls. Lobster population density and biomass were significantly higher in both real and artificial kelp treatments than in non-kelp control plots (p < 0.0001). The change in lobster density was apparent the day following placement of the experiment, so a secondary trophic effect such as attracting prey into treatments is unlikely to have occurred. Thus, kelp beds can affect local lobster population densities by providing shelter for lobsters, thereby concentrating individuals and increasing the local carrying capacity of potential lobster habitats. The effect of kelp beds on the local carrying capacity of lobster habitats was further explored by testing how lobsters respond to differing patch sizes. A graded size series of circular patches of artificial kelp was established, in which kelp blade density and total area were held constant for each treatment. Treatments were subdivided into four 1 M2, two 2 M2, or one 4 m2 patches. Experiments were surveyed for lobster population density and size structure to determine ff statistical differences existed among treatments. Lobster density was significantly greater in the smallest patches (p < 0.001). Moreover, lobsters typically occupied the edges of kelp beds, and their abundance within kelp patches corresponded to the patch's perimeter-to-area relationship. This suggests that edge effects' influence the local carrying capacity for lobsters by influencing the lobsters' choice of kelp beds as habitat.

The geography of large-scale land acquisitions: Analysing socio-ecological patterns of target contexts in the global South

This paper analyses local geographical contexts targeted by transnational large-scale land acquisitions (>200 ha per deal) in order to understand how emerging patterns of socio-ecological characteristics can be related to processes of large-scale foreign investment in land. Using a sample of 139 land deals georeferenced with high spatial accuracy, we first analyse their target contexts in terms of land cover, population density, accessibility, and indicators for agricultural potential. Three distinct patterns emerge from the analysis: densely populated and easily accessible croplands (35% of land deals); remote forestlands with lower population densities (34% of land deals); and moderately populated and moderately accessible shrub- or grasslands (26% of land deals). These patterns are consistent with processes described in the relevant case study literature, and they each involve distinct types of stakeholders and associated competition over land. We then repeat the often-cited analysis that postulates a link between land investments and target countries with abundant so-called “idle” or “marginal” lands as measured by yield gap and available suitable but uncultivated land; our methods differ from the earlier approach, however, in that we examine local context (10-km radius) rather than countries as a whole. The results show that earlier findings are disputable in terms of concepts, methods, and contents. Further, we reflect on methodologies for exploring linkages between socioecological patterns and land investment processes. Improving and enhancing large datasets of georeferenced land deals is an important next step; at the same time, careful choice of the spatial scale of analysis is crucial for ensuring compatibility between the spatial accuracy of land deal locations and the resolution of available geospatial data layers. Finally, we argue that new approaches and methods must be developed to empirically link socio-ecological patterns in target contexts to key determinants of land investment processes. This would help to improve the validity and the reach of our findings as an input for evidence-informed policy debates.

Contextualizing local-scale point sample data using global-scale spatial datasets: Lessons learnt from the analysis of large-scale land acquisitions

This paper examines how the geospatial accuracy of samples and sample size influence conclusions from geospatial analyses. It does so using the example of a study investigating the global phenomenon of large-scale land acquisitions and the socio-ecological characteristics of the areas they target. First, we analysed land deal datasets of varying geospatial accuracy and varying sizes and compared the results in terms of land cover, population density, and two indicators for agricultural potential: yield gap and availability of uncultivated land that is suitable for rainfed agriculture. We found that an increase in geospatial accuracy led to a substantial and greater change in conclusions about the land cover types targeted than an increase in sample size, suggesting that using a sample of higher geospatial accuracy does more to improve results than using a larger sample. The same finding emerged for population density, yield gap, and the availability of uncultivated land suitable for rainfed agriculture. Furthermore, the statistical median proved to be more consistent than the mean when comparing the descriptive statistics for datasets of different geospatial accuracy. Second, we analysed effects of geospatial accuracy on estimations regarding the potential for advancing agricultural development in target contexts. Our results show that the target contexts of the majority of land deals in our sample whose geolocation is known with a high level of accuracy contain smaller amounts of suitable, but uncultivated land than regional- and national-scale averages suggest. Consequently, the more target contexts vary within a country, the more detailed the spatial scale of analysis has to be in order to draw meaningful conclusions about the phenomena under investigation. We therefore advise against using national-scale statistics to approximate or characterize phenomena that have a local-scale impact, particularly if key indicators vary widely within a country.

When hybrids go wrong. How hybridization can create invasive species.

Gene flow is the movement of genes from one plant population to another. Gene flow is a natural process and a part of plant evolution. There are two ways for gene flow to occur in plants. The first is through sexual reproduction – pollen lands on a flower and a viable seed develops. The second method is through dispersal of seeds and/or vegetative plant parts (e.g. stolons, rhizomes). Gene flow can produce hybrid offspring with an increased or decreased ability to survive in the landscape. If hybrid offspring have some advantage in the environment, they could become invasive. This poster shows two examples of gene flow in plants and the potential for environmental damage.

Toxics Release Inventory facilities and childhood cancer: Geographic information systems based approach

Purpose. To examine the association between living in proximity to Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) facilities and the incidence of childhood cancer in the State of Texas. ^ Design. This is a secondary data analysis utilizing the publicly available Toxics release inventory (TRI), maintained by the U.S. Environmental protection agency that lists the facilities that release any of the 650 TRI chemicals. Total childhood cancer cases and childhood cancer rate (age 0-14 years) by county, for the years 1995-2003 were used from the Texas cancer registry, available at the Texas department of State Health Services website. Setting: This study was limited to the children population of the State of Texas. ^ Method. Analysis was done using Stata version 9 and SPSS version 15.0. Satscan was used for geographical spatial clustering of childhood cancer cases based on county centroids using the Poisson clustering algorithm which adjusts for population density. Pictorial maps were created using MapInfo professional version 8.0. ^ Results. One hundred and twenty five counties had no TRI facilities in their region, while 129 facilities had at least one TRI facility. An increasing trend for number of facilities and total disposal was observed except for the highest category based on cancer rate quartiles. Linear regression analysis using log transformation for number of facilities and total disposal in predicting cancer rates was computed, however both these variables were not found to be significant predictors. Seven significant geographical spatial clusters of counties for high childhood cancer rates (p<0.05) were indicated. Binomial logistic regression by categorizing the cancer rate in to two groups (<=150 and >150) indicated an odds ratio of 1.58 (CI 1.127, 2.222) for the natural log of number of facilities. ^ Conclusion. We have used a unique methodology by combining GIS and spatial clustering techniques with existing statistical approaches in examining the association between living in proximity to TRI facilities and the incidence of childhood cancer in the State of Texas. Although a concrete association was not indicated, further studies are required examining specific TRI chemicals. Use of this information can enable the researchers and public to identify potential concerns, gain a better understanding of potential risks, and work with industry and government to reduce toxic chemical use, disposal or other releases and the risks associated with them. TRI data, in conjunction with other information, can be used as a starting point in evaluating exposures and risks. ^

A community-based assessment of the spatiotemporal distribution of influenza in a U.S.-Mexico border county during the spring 2009 novel H1N1 swine-origin influenza A pandemic

This study retrospectively evaluated the spatial and temporal disease patterns associated with influenza-like illness (ILI), positive rapid influenza antigen detection tests (RIDT), and confirmed H1N1 S-OIV cases reported to the Cameron County Department of Health and Human Services between April 26 and May 13, 2009 using the space-time permutation scan statistic software SaTScan in conjunction with geographical information system (GIS) software ArcGIS 9.3. The rate and age-adjusted relative risk of each influenza measure was calculated and a cluster analysis was conducted to determine the geographic regions with statistically higher incidence of disease. A Poisson distribution model was developed to identify the effect that socioeconomic status, population density, and certain population attributes of a census block-group had on that area's frequency of S-OIV confirmed cases over the entire outbreak. Predominant among the spatiotemporal analyses of ILI, RIDT and S-OIV cases in Cameron County is the consistent pattern of a high concentration of cases along the southern border with Mexico. These findings in conjunction with the slight northward space-time shifts of ILI and RIDT cluster centers highlight the southern border as the primary site for public health interventions. Finally, the community-based multiple regression model revealed that three factors—percentage of the population under age 15, average household size, and the number of high school graduates over age 25—were significantly associated with laboratory-confirmed S-OIV in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Together, these findings underscore the need for community-based surveillance, improve our understanding of the distribution of the burden of influenza within the community, and have implications for vaccination and community outreach initiatives.^

Dengue transmission risk maps of the continental United States

Dengue fever is a strictly human and non-human primate disease characterized by a high fever, thrombocytopenia, retro-orbital pain, and severe joint and muscle pain. Over 40% of the world population is at risk. Recent re-emergence of dengue outbreaks in Texas and Florida following the re-introduction of competent Aedes mosquito vectors in the United States have raised growing concerns about the potential for increased occurrences of dengue fever outbreaks throughout the southern United States. Current deficiencies in vector control, active surveillance and awareness among medical practitioners may contribute to a delay in recognizing and controlling a dengue virus outbreak. Previous studies have shown links between low-income census tracts, high population density, and dengue fever within the United States. Areas of low-income and high population density that correlate with the distribution of Aedes mosquitoes result in higher potential for outbreaks. In this retrospective ecologic study, nine maps were generated to model U.S. census tracts’ potential to sustain dengue virus transmission if the virus was introduced into the area. Variables in the model included presence of a competent vector in the county and census tract percent poverty and population density. Thirty states, 1,188 counties, and 34,705 census tracts were included in the analysis. Among counties with Aedes mosquito infestation, the census tracts were ranked high, medium, and low risk potential for sustained transmission of the virus. High risk census tracts were identified as areas having the vector, ≥20% poverty, and ≥500 persons per square mile. Census tracts with either ≥20% poverty or ≥500 persons per square mile and have the vector present are considered moderate risk. Census tracts that have the vector present but have <20% poverty and <500 persons per square mile are considered low risk. Furthermore, counties were characterized as moderate risk if 50% or more of the census tracts in that county were rated high or moderate risk, and high risk if 25% or greater were rated high risk. Extreme risk counties, which were primarily concentrated in Texas and Mississippi, were considered having 50% or greater of the census tracts ranked as high risk. Mapping of geographic areas with potential to sustain dengue virus transmission will support surveillance efforts and assist medical personnel in recognizing potential cases. ^

Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Densidad de adultos de Grapholita Molesta en jaulas : Mendoza (Argentina)

Grapholita molesta es una importante plaga que afecta brotes y frutos del duraznero en Mendoza, Argentina. Algunos autores han citado que Carpocapsa pomonella requiere, en condiciones artificiales, una densidad poblacional de 100 adultos para alcanzar una alta fecundidad y que esta situación se puede extender a la especie en estudio. El objetivo del trabajo fue evaluar distintas densidades poblacionales de la especie mediante la fecundidad, viabilidad y longevidad. La especie se crió en una cámara con condiciones abióticas controladas. El diseño fue en bloques al azar para eliminar la influencia de la luz y el desarrollo generacional. Se realizaron cuatro repeticiones. Los resultados se procesaron mediante el programa Statistica. El análisis de los resultados entre bloques y tratamientos no tuvo diferencias significativas por lo que no hubo variación en la incidencia de la luz y el desarrollo generacional. La viabilidad tuvo diferencias significativas entre los tratamientos mientras que la fecundidad y la longevidad no las presentaron. La densidad poblacional influyó positivamente sobre la viabilidad cuando la cantidad de parejas fue la menor y disminuyó al incrementarse la proporción de las mismas. Es decir, el hacinamiento de los individuos afectó la viabilidad de Grapholita molesta pero no la fecundidad ni la longevidad.

Variación estructural y hábitat de poblaciones de Gymnocalycium schickendantzii (Cactaceae) en Mendoza, Argentina : efecto de las plantas nurses

Este trabajo informa sobre aspectos ecológicos de la estructura y hábitat de poblaciones de Gymnocalycium schickendantzii (F. A. C. Weber) Britton & Rose var., un cactus endémico de Argentina. En Mendoza vive en los desiertos áridos del centro-este en matorrales de Larrea cuneifolia más Zuccagnia punctata. Las variaciones de densidad de poblaciones de este cactus, a nivel de muestra, dependen de la facilitación y protección ofrecida por las plantas nurses. El recuento de los individuos desarrollados bajo los arbustos determinó: una alta proporción de la población dentro de estados juveniles (67,3%) y maduros (21,8%), la poca cantidad de plántulas (9,9%) y la casi ausencia de plantas adultas (1,0%). La incorporación del cactus está condicionada a la altura y cobertura de las plantas nurses que regulan los valores de temperaturas y fertilidad bajo sus copas. En este sentido Larrea cuneifolia, Tricomaria usillo y Zuccagnia punctata son las nurses más aceptadas. Se encontró que las variaciones de los porcentajes de densidad de cactus vivos fueron altamente significativas. Esta población está amenazada potencialmente por actividades humanas: explotación petrolera, ganadera, etc. Los resultados, que muestran la variación natural del establecimiento de la población de Gymnocalycium, podrían ser de utilidad para su manejo y conservación.

El uso del espacio público y la apropiación privada del espacio en la ciudad de Córdoba

La ciudad de Córdoba no ha sido ajena a los procesos económicos-sociales de la “globalización", que implican una fuerte expansión y concentración del capital, con impactos en la esfera social y aumento de las desigualdades. La salida de la convertibilidad a fines del año 2001 y el consecuente incremento de la apertura externa del país impactó en algunos sectores económicos, agro-exportadores principalmente, que insertos en la dinámica comercial internacional logran obtener amplios márgenes de ganancias. Las ganancias se transfieren a otros sectores de la economía que continúan aumentando la rentabilidad de los agentes involucrados. Desde entonces se observa una marcada expansión de la actividad inmobiliaria y de la construcción, en barrios centrales de la misma y hacia la periferia, con la construcción de barrios privados. Esto exacerba el valor del suelo urbano y produce una revalorización inmobiliaria en las áreas mencionadas, que es demandada por grandes inversores. La configuración territorial de la ciudad de Córdoba en los últimos años ha estado comandada por el capital privado. Sin un proyecto urbano que garantice el ordenamiento de la ciudad; ha desembocado en altas densidades edificadas en detrimento de espacios públicos; en especial plazas, áreas recreativas y deportivas. A su vez se produce mayor densidad de habitantes por Km2 que demandan la utilización de estos espacios. Los vacíos urbanos que contiene la ciudad aún pueden revertir parte de esta situación y re-valorizar el “espacio verde público" como espacio de producción y reproducción socio-espacial.

Evaluación de metales pesados en suelos de los oasis irrigados de la Provincia de Mendoza : concentraciones totales de Zn, Pb, Cd y Cu

En Mendoza, Argentina, no existen antecedentes respecto de la presencia de elementos trazas, totales y disponibles, relacionados con el uso de los suelos en los oasis irrigados. El objetivo del trabajo, en esta etapa, fue determinar los contenidos totales de plomo (Pb), cadmio (Cd), cinc (Zn) y cobre (Cu) en la capa superficial de suelos (0-25 cm), diferenciados en siete tipos según una clasificación utilitaria: suelos vírgenes (SV); suelos de banquina (SB); suelos vecinos a banquina (SVB); suelos de agricultura intensiva (SAI); suelos de agricultura protegidos por lucha antigranizo (SLAG); suelos afectados por actividad industrial (SI) y suelos urbanos (SU). Sobre un total de 200 muestras se efectuó una digestión ácida en caliente y en los extractos se determinaron los metales en su fracción total, mediante espectrofotometría de absorción atómica (AAS). El análisis estadístico de los datos muestra que los niveles más elevados de Cu y Cd se detectan en SAI, con medias de 39,3 y 2,5 mg kg-1 respectivamente. En SI se observan los mayores valores de Pb, con una media de 80,6 mg kg-1 y en SU los mayores tenores de Zn, con un valor medio de 740 mg kg-1. La Ciudad de Mendoza, con mayor densidad poblacional, presentó los mayores contenidos de Zn, Pb y Cd. Las concentraciones encontradas se ubican por debajo de las exigencias de la legislación argentina y la mayoría de los suelos pueden clasificarse como no contaminados (SNC) o ligeramente contaminados (SLC). Se prevé completar este estudio con la determinación de las fracciones disponibles de los elementos estudiados, correlacionándolos con variables edáficas físico-químicas como textura, pH y materia orgánica.

Desarrollo territorial y ajuste espacial : La difícil relación entre políticas públicas y planificación 'privada' en el norte de Santa Cruz

La Patagonia austral es un espacio periférico y de poblamiento reciente, con escasa densidad de población, en el cual las actividades económicas, la oferta de servicios y las condiciones para la reproducción de la población se asientan en la valorización de recursos naturales distribuidos desigualmente. estos recursos se encuentran, en la actualidad, crecientemente afectados por la debilidad de las políticas de manejo. en el caso de la minería, se trata de un sector en expansión y, si bien los yacimientos en explotación tienen reservas que no superan los diez años, hay nuevas exploraciones y se prevé la ampliación de la actividad. La línea orientadora que se sigue en el presente artículo es producto de la evolución de actividades de investigación sobre las temáticas de las relaciones entre poderes y territorios, en particular en el campo del ordenamiento y el desarrollo territorial. en primer lugar, se presenta una aproximación al enfoque del desarrollo territorial y de proyecto de territorio en sus relaciones con las políticas públicas y en el marco del actual escenario mundial de disputa por los recursos naturales. en segundo lugar, se describen las estrategias de los grupos dominantes, centrándose en particular en la participación de Pan american energy, y se analiza, asimismo, el papel del estado y de las sociedades regionales en el área de estudio, así como las relaciones que se establecen entre los mismos, trabajando desde distintas escalas. a manera de conclusión, se exponen escenarios posibles de desarrollo territorial resultantes de las alternativas de resolución de las relaciones conflictivas entre los citados actores en el espacio del Golfo San Jorge y el norte de la Provincia de Santa Cruz en particular.

Desarrollo territorial y ajuste espacial : La difícil relación entre políticas públicas y planificación 'privada' en el norte de Santa Cruz

La Patagonia austral es un espacio periférico y de poblamiento reciente, con escasa densidad de población, en el cual las actividades económicas, la oferta de servicios y las condiciones para la reproducción de la población se asientan en la valorización de recursos naturales distribuidos desigualmente. estos recursos se encuentran, en la actualidad, crecientemente afectados por la debilidad de las políticas de manejo. en el caso de la minería, se trata de un sector en expansión y, si bien los yacimientos en explotación tienen reservas que no superan los diez años, hay nuevas exploraciones y se prevé la ampliación de la actividad. La línea orientadora que se sigue en el presente artículo es producto de la evolución de actividades de investigación sobre las temáticas de las relaciones entre poderes y territorios, en particular en el campo del ordenamiento y el desarrollo territorial. en primer lugar, se presenta una aproximación al enfoque del desarrollo territorial y de proyecto de territorio en sus relaciones con las políticas públicas y en el marco del actual escenario mundial de disputa por los recursos naturales. en segundo lugar, se describen las estrategias de los grupos dominantes, centrándose en particular en la participación de Pan american energy, y se analiza, asimismo, el papel del estado y de las sociedades regionales en el área de estudio, así como las relaciones que se establecen entre los mismos, trabajando desde distintas escalas. a manera de conclusión, se exponen escenarios posibles de desarrollo territorial resultantes de las alternativas de resolución de las relaciones conflictivas entre los citados actores en el espacio del Golfo San Jorge y el norte de la Provincia de Santa Cruz en particular.