Phylodynamic modelling of foot-and-mouth disease virus sequence data

The under-reporting of cases of infectious diseases is a substantial impediment to the control and management of infectious diseases in both epidemic and endemic contexts. Information about infectious disease dynamics can be recovered from sequence data using time-varying coalescent approaches, and phylodynamic models have been developed in order to reconstruct demographic changes of the numbers of infected hosts through time. In this study I have demonstrated the general concordance between empirically observed epidemiological incidence data and viral demography inferred through analysis of foot-and-mouth disease virus VP1 coding sequences belonging to the CATHAY topotype over large temporal and spatial scales. However a more precise and robust relationship between the effective population size (

[France's margins and the necessary territorial attractiveness].

International audience

[The France of margins: a very small population or significance?]

International audience

Ocular injuries and eye care seeking patterns following injuries among cocoa farmers in Ghana.

Background: The work environment of cocoa farmers exposes them to several ocular hazards that predispose them to eye diseases and injuries. However, the extent of ocular injuries and health seeking patterns following these injuries are unknown among cocoa farmers in Ghana. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of ocular injuries and health seeking behaviour following injury among cocoa farmers in Ghana. Methods: Five hundred and fifty six participants were recruited through simple random sampling using a multistage approach from four cocoa growing districts in Ghana. A structured questionnaire was used to collect relevant information such as demography, ocular hazards and injuries experienced. An ocular examination was also conducted to assess the eye health of the participants. Descriptive and regression statistics were used to analyze the data. The rate of ocular injuries was calculated by using the number of injuries reported that resulted in lost work time/days divided by the number of worker years at risk of injury (sum of years worked in cocoa farms for all the participants). Results: The rate of ocular injuries was 11.3/1000 worker years (95% CI: 9.4 - 31) which led to lost work time of 37.3/1000 worker years (95% CI: 34.1 - 40.8). The major causes of ocular injury were plants/branches (n=73, 51.1%), chemicals (n=27, 18.9%), cocoa pod/husk (n=14, 9.8%) and occurred mostly during weeding, harvesting and chemical spraying. Few (n=34, 6.1%) participants reported the use of ocular protection. Fifty-five (38.5%) participants visited the local chemical shops, while 37 (25.9%) visited hospitals/clinics for ocular treatment of their injuries. Conclusion: There is a high rate of ocular injuries among cocoa farmers who make insufficient use of appropriate eye care services. There is the need for eye health education among cocoa farmers in Ghana. Keywords:

INTERGENERATIONAL SUPPORT AND WELL-BEING OF OLDER ADULTS IN CHANGING FAMILY CONTEXTS

This dissertation consists of three papers that examine the complexities in upward intergenerational support and adult children’s influence on older adults’ health in changing family contexts of America and China. The prevalence of “gray divorce/repartnering ” in later life after age 55 is on the rise in the United States, yet little is known about its effect on intergenerational support. The first paper uses the life course perspective to examine whether gray divorce and repartnering affect support from biological and stepchildren differently than early divorce and repartnering, and how patterns differ by parents’ gender. Massive internal migration in China has led to increased geographic distance between adult children and aging parents, which may have consequences for old age support received by parents. This topic has yet to be thoroughly explored in China, as most studies of intergenerational support to older parents have focused on the role of coresident children or have not considered the interdependence of multiple parent-child dyads in the family. The second paper adopts the within-family differences approach to assess the influence of non-coresident children’s relative living proximity to parents compared to that of their siblings on their provision of support to parents in rural and urban Chinese families. The study also examines how patterns of the impact are moderated by parents’ living arrangement, non-coresident children’s gender, and parents’ provision of support to children. Taking a multigenerational network perspective, the third paper questions if and how adult children’s socioeconomic status (SES) influences older parents’ health in China. It further examines whether health benefits brought by adult children’s socioeconomic attainment are larger for older adults with lower SES and whether one of the mechanisms through which adult children’s SES affects older parents’ health is by changing their health behaviors. These questions are highly relevant in contemporary China, where adult children have experienced substantial gains in SES and play a central role in old age support for parents. In sum, these three papers take the life course, the within-family differences, and the multigenerational network perspective to address the complexities in intergenerational support and older adults’ health in diverse family contexts.

ESSAYS ON DISPLACED WORKERS AND RESIDENTIAL MIGRATION

In this dissertation, I explore how workers’ human capital, local industry composition, and business cycles affect employment outcomes and residential migration for job losers and other workers. I first examine whether the poor employment outcomes of job losers are due to a lack of jobs that require their human capital within their local labor market. I answer this question by analyzing the extent to which the industry composition in the job loser’s local labor market affects employment outcomes when job loss occurs during expansions and during recessions. I find that if job losers reside in an area with a high employment concentration of their original industry of employment, they are 2.1-2.8 percent more likely to be re-employed at another job if job loss occurs during an expansion; I find an insignificant relationship in most specifications when job loss occurs during a recession, and in some specifications I even find a negative relationship between industry concentration and employment. I conclude that the industry composition within an area matters for job losers, since firms are more willing to hire workers from within their own industry, as these workers have more relevant accumulated human capital. However, firms are less likely to hire during a recession, making job losers’ human capital less important for job finding. Next, Erika McEntarfer, Henry Hyatt, and I examine whether the business cycle affects earnings changes for job losers, and the factors that explain these differences across time. We find that job losers who lost their job during the Great Recession have earnings changes that are 10 percent more negative relative to other job losers from other periods. This result is driven primarily by longer nonemployment lengths and worse subsequent job matches. Finally, Erika McEntarfer, Henry Hyatt, Alexandria Zhang, and I explore the extent to which residential migration is driven by job opportunities. We use four databases and find that changes in job moves explain some of the changes in residential migration, but the relationship is not as strong as previously documented. We find that migration patterns differ across databases, with some databases documenting steeper declines and more cyclicality.

Plant Migrations Impact on Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Forests have a prominent role in carbon storage and sequestration. Anthropogenic forcing has the potential to accelerate climate change and alter the distribution of forests. How forests redistribute spatially and temporally in response to climate change can alter their carbon sequestration potential. The driving question for this research was: How does plant migration from climate change impact vegetation distribution and carbon sequestration potential over continental scales? Large-scale simulation of the equilibrium response of vegetation and carbon from future climate change has shown relatively modest net gains in sequestration potential, but studies of the transient response has been limited to the sub-continent or landscape scale. The transient response depends on fine scale processes such as competition, disturbance, landscape characteristics, dispersal, and other factors, which makes it computational prohibitive at large domain sizes. To address this, this research used an advanced mechanistic model (Ecosystem Demography Model, ED) that is individually based, but pseudo-spatial, that reduces computational intensity while maintaining the fine scale processes that drive the transient response. First, the model was validated against remote sensing data for current plant functional type distribution in northern North America with a current climatology, and then a future climatology was used to predict the potential equilibrium redistribution of vegetation and carbon from future climate change. Next, to enable transient calculations, a method was developed to simulate the spatially explicit process of dispersal in pseudo-spatial modeling frameworks. Finally, the new dispersal sub-model was implemented in the mechanistic ecosystem model, and a model experimental design was designed and completed to estimate the transient response of vegetation and carbon to climate change. The potential equilibrium forest response to future climate change was found to be large, with large gross changes in distribution of plant functional types and comparatively smaller changes in net carbon sequestration potential for the region. However, the transient response was found to be on the order of centuries, and to depend strongly on disturbance rates and dispersal distances. Future work should explore the impact of species-specific disturbance and dispersal rates, landscape fragmentation, and other processes that influence migration rates and have been simulated at the sub-continent scale, but now at continental scales, and explore a range of alternative future climate scenarios as they continue to be developed.

Population ageing and monetary policy

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira

Recruitment patterns and processes of coastal fish species in a temperate rocky reef

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente, Ramo: Ciências do Mar, Especialização em Ecologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Allozyme and mtDNA variation of white seabream Diplodus sargus populations in a transition area between western and eastern Mediterranean basins (Siculo-Tunisian Strait)

To investigate the possible influence of the Siculo-Tunisian Strait on the genetic structure of white seabream Diplodus sargus, 13 polymorphic allozyme loci and a fragment of the cytochrome b mitochondrial DNA were analysed. Allozyme data indicated a moderate but significant differentiation between some north-eastern (Bizerta, Ghar El Melh Lagoon and Mahdia) and southern (Gabes Gulf and El Biban Lagoon) samples. This heterogeneity was also highlighted after removing PGM* and PGI-1* loci which may be under selection. These results can be explained by the chaotic genetic patchiness hypothesis. In contrast, the mtDNA data indicated genetic homogeneity among localities showing the absence of structure in white seabream populations across the Siculo-Tunisian Strait. Historical demography of this species suggests that it has undergone a recent population expansion as a consequence of a bottleneck event during the Pleistocene glaciations.

Influência de eventos históricos e recentes na filogeografia e estrutura genética de Neothraupis fasciata (Aves : Thraupidae), uma ave endêmica do Cerrado

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biologia Animal, 2016.

A State of War: Florida from 1939 to 1945

World War II profoundly impacted Florida. The military geography of the State is essential to an understanding the war. The geostrategic concerns of place and space determined that Florida would become a statewide military base. Florida’s attributes of place such as climate and topography determined its use as a military academy hosting over two million soldiers, nearly 15 percent of the GI Army, the largest force theUS ever raised. One-in-eight Floridians went into uniform. Equally,Florida’s space on the planet made it central for both defensive and offensive strategies. The Second World War was a war of movement, and Florida was a major jump off point forUSforce projection world-wide, especially of air power. Florida’s demography facilitated its use as a base camp for the assembly and engagement of this military power. In 1940, less than two percent of the US population lived in Florida, a quiet, barely populated backwater of the United States.[1] But owing to its critical place and space, over the next few years it became a 65,000 square mile training ground, supply dump, and embarkation site vital to the US war effort. Because of its place astride some of the most important sea lanes in the Atlantic World,Florida was the scene of one of the few Western Hemisphere battles of the war. The militarization ofFloridabegan long before Pearl Harbor. The pre-war buildup conformed to theUSstrategy of the war. The strategy of theUS was then (and remains today) one of forward defense: harden the frontier, then take the battle to the enemy, rather than fight them inNorth America. The policy of “Europe First,” focused the main US war effort on the defeat of Hitler’sGermany, evaluated to be the most dangerous enemy. In Florida were established the military forces requiring the longest time to develop, and most needed to defeat the Axis. Those were a naval aviation force for sea-borne hostilities, a heavy bombing force for reducing enemy industrial states, and an aerial logistics train for overseas supply of expeditionary campaigns. The unique Florida coastline made possible the seaborne invasion training demanded for USvictory. The civilian population was employed assembling mass-produced first-generation container ships, while Floridahosted casualties, Prisoners-of-War, and transient personnel moving between the Atlantic and Pacific. By the end of hostilities and the lifting of Unlimited Emergency, officially on December 31, 1946, Floridahad become a transportation nexus. Florida accommodated a return of demobilized soldiers, a migration of displaced persons, and evolved into a modern veterans’ colonia. It was instrumental in fashioning the modern US military, while remaining a center of the active National Defense establishment. Those are the themes of this work. [1] US Census of Florida 1940. Table 4 – Race, By Nativity and Sex, For the State. 14.

Reassessing the Evolutionary History of the 17q21 Inversion Polymorphism

A polymorphic inversion that lies on chromosome 17q21 comprises two major haplotype families (H1 and H2) that not only differ in orientation but also in copy-number. Although the processes driving the spread of the inversion-associated lineage (H2) in humans remain unclear, a selective advantage has been proposed for one of its subtypes. Here, we genotyped a large panel of individuals from previously overlooked populations using a custom array with a unique panel of H2-specific single nucleotide polymorphisms and found a patchy distribution of H2 haplotypes in Africa, with North Africans displaying a higher frequency of inverted subtypes, when compared with Sub-Saharan groups. Interestingly, North African H2s were found to be closer to "non-African" chromosomes further supporting that these populations may have diverged more recently from groups outside Africa. Our results uncovered higher diversity within the H2 family than previously described, weakening the hypothesis of a strong selective sweep on all inverted chromosomes and suggesting a rather complex evolutionary history at this locus.

Vulnerable Rural Counties: The Changing Rural Landscape, 2000–2010

Understanding the demography of rural America is vital to understanding what programs, interventions and policy initiatives are needed to improve health care access, delivery and outcomes. Overall findings suggest that rural America experienced the recession that ended the 2000–2010 decade more severely than did urban America. Loss of income, declining population and reduced health care resources marked the period for most rural counties. Rural counties will need continued monitoring in the present decade to ascertain whether these adverse trends continue and to identify any policy approaches that can serve to ameliorate losses in health care services.

Normative reference values for the 20-meter shuttlerun test in a population-based sample of schoolchildren in Bogota, Colombia: The FUPRECOL Study

Our aim was to determine the normative reference values of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and to establish the proportion of subjects with low CRF suggestive of future cardio-metabolic risk.