Non-monotonic Reasoning and the Reversibility of Belief Change

Traditional approaches to nonmonotonic reasoning fail to satisfy a number of plausible axioms for belief revision and suffer from conceptual difficulties as well. Recent work on ranked preferential models (RPMs) promises to overcome some of these difficulties. Here we show that RPMs are not adequate to handle iterated belief change. Specifically, we show that RPMs do not always allow for the reversibility of belief change. This result indicates the need for numerical strengths of belief.

Evaluating a model of parental influence on youth physical activity

Objective To test a conceptual model linking parental physical activity orientations, parental support for physical activity, and children's self-efficacy perceptions with physical activity participation. Participants and setting The sample consisted of 380 students in grades 7 through 12 (mean age, 14.0±1.6 years) and their parents. Data collection took place during the fall of 1996. Main outcome measures Parents completed a questionnaire assessing their physical activity habits, enjoyment of physical activity, beliefs regarding the importance of physical activity, and supportive behaviors for their child's physical activity. Students completed a 46-item inventory assessing physical activity during the previous 7 days and a 5-item physical activity self-efficacy scale. The model was tested via observed variable path analysis using structural equation modeling techniques (AMOS 4.0). Results An initial model, in which parent physical activity orientations predicted child physical activity via parental support and child self-efficacy, did not provide an acceptable fit to the data. Inclusion of a direct path from parental support to child physical activity and deletion of a nonsignificant path from parental physical activity to child physical activity significantly improved model fit. Standardized path coefficients for the revised model ranged from 0.17 to 0.24, and all were significant at the p<0.0001 level. Conclusions Parental support was an important correlate of youth physical activity, acting directly or indirectly through its influence on self-efficacy. Physical activity interventions targeted at youth should include and evaluate the efficacy of individual-level and community-level strategies to increase parents’ capacity to provide instrumental and motivational support for their children's physical activity.

Team change climate : a group-level analysis of the relationships among change information and change participation, role stressors, and well-being

We explored whether teams develop shared perceptions regarding the quantity and quality of information and the extent of participation in decision making provided in an environment of continuous change. In addition, we examined whether change climate strength moderated relationships between change climate level and team outcomes. We examined relationships among aggregated change information and change participation and aggregated team outcomes, including two role stressors (i.e., role ambiguity and role overload) and two indicators of well-being (i.e., quality of worklife and distress). Questionnaires were distributed in an Australian law enforcement agency and data were used from 178 teams. Structural equation modelling analyses, controlling for a marker variable, were conducted to examine the main effects of aggregated change information and aggregated change participation on aggregated team outcomes. Results provided support for a model that included method effects due to a marker variable. In this model, change information climate was significantly negatively associated with role ambiguity, role overload, and distress, and significantly positively associated with quality of worklife. Change participation climate was significantly positively associated with quality of worklife. Change climate strength did not moderate relationships among change climate level and team outcomes.

Conceptual framework for understanding the demand for emergency health services

Background & Objectives Emergency health services (EHS) throughout the world are increasingly congested. As more people use EHS, factors such as population growth and aging cannot fully explain this increase. Also, focus on patients’ clinical characteristics ignores the role that attitudinal and perceptual factors and motivations play in directing their decisions and actions. The aim of this study is to review and synthesize an integrated conceptual framework for understanding social psychological factors underpinning demand for EHS. Methodology A comprehensive search and review of empirical and theoretical studies about the utilization of EHS was conducted using major medical, health, social and behavioral sciences databases. Results A small number of studies used a relevant conceptual framework (e.g. Health Services Utilization Model or Health Belief Model) or their components to analyze patients’ decision to use EHS. The studies evidenced that demand was affected by perceived severity of the condition; perceived costs and benefits (e.g. availability, accessibility and affordability of alternative services); experience, preference and knowledge; perceived and actual social support; and demographic characteristics (e.g. age, sex, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, marital and living circumstances, place of residence). Conclusions Conceptual models that are commonly used in areas like social and behavioral sciences have rarely been applied in the EHS utilization field. Understanding patients’ decision-making and associated factors will lay the groundwork for identification of the evidence to inform improved policy responses and the development of demand management strategies. An integrated conceptual framework will be introduced as part of this study.

Organisational change in public organisations

This research applies a multidimensional model of publicness to the analysis of organisational change and in so doing enriches understanding of the public nature of organisations and how public characteristics facilitate change. Much of the prior literature describes public organisations as bureaucratic, with characteristics that are resistant to change, hierarchical structures that impede information flow, goals that are imposed and scrutinised by political authority and red tape that constrains decision-making. This dissertation instead reports a more complex picture and explains how public characteristics can also work in ways that enable organisational change.

Workflow patterns as a means to model task succession in games – a preliminary case study

Over about the last decade, people involved in game development have noted the need for more formal models and tools to support the design phase of games. It is argued that the present lack of such formal tools is currently hindering knowledge transfer among designers. Formal visual languages, on the other hand, can help to more effectively express, abstract and communicate game design concepts. Moreover, formal tools can assist in the prototyping phase, allowing designers to reason about and simulate game mechanics on an abstract level. In this paper we present an initial investigation into whether workflow patterns – which have already proven to be effective for modeling business processes – are a suitable way to model task succession in games. Our preliminary results suggest that workflow patterns show promise in this regard but some limitations, especially in regard to time constraints, currently restrict their potential.

A kinetic model for an argon plasma containing dust grains

A complex low-pressure argon discharge plasma containing dust grains is studied using a Boltzmann equation for the electrons and fluid equations for the ions. Local effects, such as the spatial distribution of the dust density and external electric field, are included, and their effect on the electron energy distribution, the electron and ion number densities, the electron temperature, and the dust charge are investigated. It is found that dust particles can strongly affect the plasma parameters by modifying the electron energy distribution, the electron temperature, the creation and loss of plasma particles, as well as the spatial distributions of the electrons and ions. In particular, for sufficiently high grain density and/or size, in a low-pressure argon glow discharge, the Druyvesteyn-like electron distribution in pristine plasmas can become nearly Maxwellian. Electron collection by the dust grains is the main cause for the change in the electron distribution function.

Supporting process model validation through natural language generation

The design and development of process-aware information systems is often supported by specifying requirements as business process models. Although this approach is generally accepted as an effective strategy, it remains a fundamental challenge to adequately validate these models given the diverging skill set of domain experts and system analysts. As domain experts often do not feel confident in judging the correctness and completeness of process models that system analysts create, the validation often has to regress to a discourse using natural language. In order to support such a discourse appropriately, so-called verbalization techniques have been defined for different types of conceptual models. However, there is currently no sophisticated technique available that is capable of generating natural-looking text from process models. In this paper, we address this research gap and propose a technique for generating natural language texts from business process models. A comparison with manually created process descriptions demonstrates that the generated texts are superior in terms of completeness, structure, and linguistic complexity. An evaluation with users further demonstrates that the texts are very understandable and effectively allow the reader to infer the process model semantics. Hence, the generated texts represent a useful input for process model validation.

A hierarchical model of goal directed navigation selects trajectories in a visual environment

We have developed a Hierarchical Look-Ahead Trajectory Model (HiLAM) that incorporates the firing pattern of medial entorhinal grid cells in a planning circuit that includes interactions with hippocampus and prefrontal cortex. We show the model’s flexibility in representing large real world environments using odometry information obtained from challenging video sequences. We acquire the visual data from a camera mounted on a small tele-operated vehicle. The camera has a panoramic field of view with its focal point approximately 5 cm above the ground level, similar to what would be expected from a rat’s point of view. Using established algorithms for calculating perceptual speed from the apparent rate of visual change over time, we generate raw dead reckoning information which loses spatial fidelity over time due to error accumulation. We rectify the loss of fidelity by exploiting the loop-closure detection ability of a biologically inspired, robot navigation model termed RatSLAM. The rectified motion information serves as a velocity input to the HiLAM to encode the environment in the form of grid cell and place cell maps. Finally, we show goal directed path planning results of HiLAM in two different environments, an indoor square maze used in rodent experiments and an outdoor arena more than two orders of magnitude larger than the indoor maze. Together these results bridge for the first time the gap between higher fidelity bio-inspired navigation models (HiLAM) and more abstracted but highly functional bio-inspired robotic mapping systems (RatSLAM), and move from simulated environments into real-world studies in rodent-sized arenas and beyond.

A multi-level ecological model of psychotropic prescribing to adults with intellectual disability

Purpose – Simple linear accounts of prescribing do not adequately address reasons “why” doctors prescribe psychotropic medication to people with intellectual disability (ID). Greater understanding of the complex array of factors that influence decisions to prescribe is needed. Design/methodology/approach – After consideration of a number of conceptual frameworks that have potential to better understand prescribing of psychotropic medication to adults with ID, an ecological model of prescribing was developed. A case study is used to outline how the model can provide greater understanding of prescribing processes. Findings – The model presented aims to consider the complexity and multi-dimensional nature of community-based psychotropic prescribing to adults with ID. The utility of the model is illustrated through a consideration of the case study. Research limitations/implications – The model presented is conceptual and is as yet untested. Practical implications – The model presented aims to capture the complexity and multi-dimensional nature of community-based psychotropic prescribing to adults with ID. The model may provide utility for clinicians and researchers as they seek clarification of prescribing decisions. Originality/value – The paper adds valuable insight into factors influencing psychotropic prescribing to adults with ID. The ecological model of prescribing extends traditional analysis that focuses on patient characteristics and introduces multi-level perspectives that may provide utility for clinicians and researchers.

Design innovation catalyst tools to facilitate organisational change

Organisations have recently looked to design to become more customer oriented and co-create a new kind of value and service offering. This requires changes in the organisation mindset, involving the entire company, innovation processes and often its business model. One tool that has been successful in facilitating this has been Osterwalder and Pigneur (2010) ‘Business Model Canvas’ and more importantly the design process that supports the use of this tool. The aim of this paper is to explore the role design tools play in the translation and facilitation process of innovation in firms. Six ‘Design Innovation Catalysts’ (Wrigley, 2013) were interviewed in regards to their approach and use of design tools in order to better facilitate innovation. Results highlight the value of tools expands beyond their intended use to include; facilitation of communicating, permission to think creatively, and learning and teaching through visualisation. Findings from this research build upon the role of the Design Innovation Catalyst and provide additional implications for organisations.

Augmenting and assisting model elicitation tasks with 3D virtual world context metadata

Accurate process model elicitation continues to be a time consuming task, requiring skill on the part of the interviewer to extract explicit and tacit process information from the interviewee. Many errors occur in this elicitation stage that would be avoided by better activity recall, more consistent specification methods and greater engagement in the elicitation process by interviewees. Theories of situated cognition indicate that interactive 3D representations of real work environments engage and prime the cognitive state of the viewer. In this paper, our major contribution is to augment a previous process elicitation methodology with virtual world context metadata, drawn from a 3D simulation of the workplace. We present a conceptual and formal approach for representing this contextual metadata, integrated into a process similarity measure that provides hints for the business analyst to use in later modelling steps. Finally, we conclude with examples from two use cases to illustrate the potential abilities of this approach.

Sensitivity of an Elekta iView GT a-Si EPID model to delivery errors for pre-treatment verification of IMRT fields

A Monte Carlo model of an Elekta iViewGT amorphous silicon electronic portal imaging device (a-Si EPID) has been validated for pre-treatment verification of clinical IMRT treatment plans. The simulations involved the use of the BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc Monte Carlo codes to predict the response of the iViewGT a-Si EPID model. The predicted EPID images were compared to the measured images obtained from the experiment. The measured EPID images were obtained by delivering a photon beam from an Elekta Synergy linac to the Elekta iViewGT a-Si EPID. The a-Si EPID was used with no additional build-up material. Frame averaged EPID images were acquired and processed using in-house software. The agreement between the predicted and measured images was analyzed using the gamma analysis technique with acceptance criteria of 3% / 3 mm. The results show that the predicted EPID images for four clinical IMRT treatment plans have a good agreement with the measured EPID signal. Three prostate IMRT plans were found to have an average gamma pass rate of more than 95.0 % and a spinal IMRT plan has the average gamma pass rate of 94.3 %. During the period of performing this work a routine MLC calibration was performed and one of the IMRT treatments re-measured with the EPID. A change in the gamma pass rate for one field was observed. This was the motivation for a series of experiments to investigate the sensitivity of the method by introducing delivery errors, MLC position and dosimetric overshoot, into the simulated EPID images. The method was found to be sensitive to 1 mm leaf position errors and 10% overshoot errors.

Energy price-induced and exogenous technological change : Assessing the economic and environmental outcomes

In this paper, we distinguish between factor/output substitution and shifts in the production technology frontier. Our model includes the by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions where the function requires the simultaneous expansion of good outputs and reductions in emissions. We estimate a directional output distance function for 80 countries over the period 1971-2000 to measure the exogenous and oil price-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial oil price-induced technological progress at the world level when long-term oil prices are rising, although the growth rate is more volatile in developed countries than in developing countries. The results also show that developed countries experience higher exogenous technological progress in comparison with developing countries, and the gap between the two has increased during the period of our study.

Trade-induced technological change : analyzing economic and environmental outcomes

We analyze how changes in trade openness are related to induced technological innovations that are not only GDP increasing but also pollution saving. Our model includes by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions. We estimate a directional distance function for 76 countries over the period 1963-2000 to measure exogenous and trade-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial trade-induced technological progress, and its magnitude is about one third of the overall technological change. The trade-induced technological changes, however, are GDP reducing and pollution increasing. Empirically, we find that increased trade openness correlates to increased pollution.