Testing reference dependence, loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in Spanish tourism

Based on Tversky and Kahneman’s Prospect Theory, we test the existence of reference dependence, loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in Spanish tourism. To do this, we incorporate the reference-dependent model into a Multinomial Logit Model with Random Parameters -which controls for heterogeneity- and apply it to a sample of vacation choices made by Spaniards. We find that the difference between reference price and actual price is considered to make decisions, confirming that reference dependence exists; that people react more strongly to price increases than to price decreases relative to their reference price, which represents evidence in favor of the loss aversion phenomenon; and that there is diminishing sensitivity for losses only, showing convexity for these negative values.

Innovative Tourism Clusters: Myth or Reality? Empirical Evidence from Benidorm

Paper submitted to TCVT3 Bozen/Bolzano, 10-12 April 2014, International workshop on Tourists as Consumers, Visitors, Travellers

A Sociocybernetics Data Analysis Using Causality in Tourism Networks

The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases. For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in the immediate future.

Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chaos Theory as an Approach to Understanding MICE in Time of Crisis

MICE (meetings, incentives, conventions, and exhibitions), has generated high foreign exchange revenue for the economy worldwide. In Thailand, MICE tourists are recognized as ‘quality’ visitors, mainly because of their high-spending potential. Having said that, Thailand’s MICE sector has been influenced by a number of crises following September 11, 2001. Consequently, professionals in the MICE sector must be prepared to deal with such complex phenomena of crisis that might happen in the future. While a number of researches have examined the complexity of crises in the tourism context, there has been little focus on such issues in the MICE sector. As chaos theory provides a particularly good model for crisis situations, it is the aim of this paper to propose a chaos theory-based approach to the understanding of complex and chaotic system of the MICE sector in time of crisis.

New Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Abstract Purpose The purpose of the study is to review recent studies published from 2007-2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field. Design/Methodology/approach Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published in both science citation index (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) journals were identified and analyzed. Findings This review found that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, while disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. Practical implications This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices. Originality/value The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

Tourism in Albarracín and Region. Local Public Action and dynamics in recent key sustainable tourism development

Spanish tourist destinations in rural areas have been established over more than two decades of implementation of various public policy instruments (mainly tourism and rural development policies). These convey complementary objectives in theory but provoke distant results in practice. The intervention of these instruments produces in the region of Sierra de Albarracín (Teruel) two types of destination whose sustainability is committed: the historical urban site of Albarracín as a consolidated cultural tourism destination based on heritage and the Sierra as a generic and incipient destination of rural tourism. It is discussed how the deployment of the local public action causes a fragmented territory in two models of management and tourism development. Cooperation is presented as a key element for the necessary rethinking of tourism development in the region.

Co-creation of tourism experience: attention, involvement and memorability

Tese de Doutoramento, Turismo, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Feminist Disability Theory: Domestic Violence Against Women with a Disability

Women with a disability continue to experience social oppression and domestic violence as a consequence of gender and disability dimensions. Current explanations of domestic violence and disability inadequately explain several features that lead women who have a disability to experience violent situations. This article incorporates both disability and material feminist theory as an alternative explanation to the dominant approaches (psychological and sociological traditions) of conceptualising domestic violence. This paper is informed by a study which was concerned with examining the nature and perceptions of violence against women with a physical impairment. The emerging analytical framework integrating material feminist interpretations and disability theory provided a basis for exploring gender and disability dimensions. Insight was also provided by the women who identified as having a disability in the study and who explained domestic violence in terms of a gendered and disabling experience. The article argues that material feminist interpretations and disability theory, with their emphasis on gender relations, disablism and poverty, should be used as an alternative tool for exploring the nature and consequences of violence against women with a disability.

Australian waterfalls as tourism attractions

For a largely arid country with generally low relief, Australia has a remarkably large number and variety of waterfalls. Found mainly near the coast, close to where most of the population lives and near the major tourist resort areas, these landscape features have long been popular scenic attractions. As sights to see and places to enjoy a variety of recreational activities, waterfalls continue to play an important role in Australia’s tourism, even in seaside resort areas where the main attractions are sunshine, sandy beaches and surf. The aesthetic appeal of waterfalls and their value as recreational resources are recognized by the inclusion of many in national parks. Even here, demands of visitors and pressures from developers raise serious problems. This paper examines the way in which waterfalls have been developed and promoted as tourist attractions, demonstrating their importance to Australian tourism. It considers threats to the sustainable use of waterfall resources posed by power schemes and, particularly, by the tourist industry itself. Queensland’s Gold Coast is selected as a case study, and comparisons are made with other areas in which waterfalls have played important roles as tourist attractions, especially the Yorkshire coast of northeast England. The discussion draws largely on an examination of tourist literature from the nineteenth to the twenty-first century, including holiday brochures and guide books, as well as other published sources, together with field observation in various parts of the world