Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

Zinc Sulphate in the Treatment of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis: an in Vitro and Animal Study

This study was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of zinc sulphate both in vitro and in an animal model against both strains of old world cutaneous leishmaniasis. The in vitro sensitivities of promastigotes and axenic amastigotes of both Leishmania major and L. tropica to zinc sulphate was determined, the LD50 calculated and compared to the standard treatment for cutaneous leishmaniasis pentavalent antimony compounds. The results show that the two forms of both strains were sensitive to zinc sulphate and their respective LD50 were lower compared to the pentavalent antimony compound. Furthermore the sensitivities of the forms of both strains were tested using a simple slide method and compared to results of the standard method. To confirm this result, zinc sulphate was administered orally to mice infected with cutaneous leishmaniasis both therapeutically and prophylactically. Results showed that oral zinc sulphate was effective in both treatment and prophylaxis for cutaneous leishmaniasis. These results encourage the use of oral zinc sulphate in the treatment of cutaneous leishmaniasis clinically.

ALK rearrangement in a selected population of advanced non small cell lung cancer patients. FISH and inmunohistochemistry diagnostic methods, prevalence and clinical outcomes

Anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) rearrangements represents a new driver oncogenic event in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). ALK positive patients account for a 1-7% of NSCLC patients. The objective of this study is to know the prevalence and clinical characteristics of ALK positive patients in a cohort of NSCLC patients and to compare inmunohistochemistry with D5F3 monoclonal antibody with gold standard method fluorescence in situ hybridation

Time course of in vitro maturation of intra-erythrocytic malaria parasite: a comparison between Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium knowlesi

The schizont maturation assay for in vitro drug sensitivity tests has been a standard method employed in the global baseline assessment and monitoring of drug response in Plasmodium falciparum. This test is limited in its application to synchronous plasmodial infections because it evaluates the effect of drug on the maturation of parasite especially from ring to schizont stage and therefore synchronized P. falciparum cultures are required. On the other hand, P. knowlesi, a simian malaria parasite has a unique 24-h periodicity and maintains high natural synchronicity in monkeys. The present report presents the results of a comparative study on the course of in vitro maturation of sorbitol synchronized P. falciparum and naturally synchronous P. knowlesi. Ring stage parasites were incubated in RPMI medium supplemented with 10-15% pooled homologous serum in flat-bottomed 96-well micro plates using a candle jar at 37°C. The results suggest that the ideal time for harvesting the micro-assay plates for in vitro drug sensitivity test for sorbitol-synchronized P. falciparum and naturally synchronous P. knowlesi are from 26 to 30 h and from 22 to 25 h, respectively. The advantages of using P. knowlesi in chemotherapeutic studies are discussed.

Can accelerometry accurately predict the energy cost of uphill/downhill walking?

To evaluate whether an activity monitor based on body acceleration measurement can accurately assess the energy cost of the human locomotion, 12 subjects walked a combination of three different speeds (preferred speed +/- 1 km/h) and seven slopes (-15 to +15% by steps of 5%) on a treadmill. Body accelerations were recorded using a triaxial accelerometer attached to the low back. The mean of the integral of the vector magnitude (norm) of the accelerations (mIAN) was calculated. VO2 was measured using continuous indirect calorimetry. When the results were separately analysed for each incline, mIAN was correlated to VO2 (average r = 0.87, p<0.001, n = 36). VO2 was not significantly correlated to mIAN when data were globally analysed (n = 252). Large relative errors occurred when predicted VO2 (estimated from data of level walking) was compared with measured VO2 for different inclines (-53% at +15% incline, to +55% at -15% incline). It is concluded that without an external measurement of the slope, the standard method of analysis of body accelerations cannot accurately predict the energy cost of uphill or downhill walking.

Correlation of biological serum markers with the degree of hepatic fibrosis and necroinflammatory activity in hepatitis C and schistosomiasis patients

Liver biopsy is the gold-standard method to stage fibrosis; however, it is an invasive procedure and is potentially dangerous. The main objective of this study was to evaluate biological markers, such as cytokines IL-13, IFN-γ, TNF-α and TGF-β, platelets, bilirubins (Bil), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total proteins, γ-glutamil transferase (γ-GT) and alkaline phosphatase (AP), that could be used to predict the severity of hepatic fibrosis in schistosomiasis and hepatitis C (HC) as isolated diseases or co-infections. The following patient groups were selected: HC (n = 39), HC/hepatosplenic schistosomiasis (HSS) (n = 19), HSS (n = 22) and a control group (n = 13). ANOVA and ROC curves were used for statistical analysis. P < 0.05 was considered significant. With HC patients we showed that TNF-α (p = 0.020) and AP (p = 0.005) could differentiate mild and severe fibrosis. With regard to necroinflammatory activity, AST (p = 0.002), γ-GT (p = 0.034) and AP (p = 0.001) were the best markers to differentiate mild and severe activity. In HC + HSS patients, total Bil (p = 0.008) was capable of differentiating between mild and severe fibrosis. In conclusion, our study was able to suggest biological markers that are non-invasive candidates to evaluate fibrosis and necroinflammatory activity in HC and HC + HSS.

Fast test for assessing the susceptibility of Mycobacterium tuberculosis to isoniazid and rifampin by real-time PCR

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the bacterium that causes tuberculosis (TB), a leading cause of death from infectious disease worldwide. Rapid diagnosis of resistant strains is important for the control of TB. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays may detect all of the mutations that occur in the M. tuberculosis 81-bp core region of the rpoB gene, which is responsible for resistance to rifampin (RIF) and codon 315 of the katG gene and the inhA ribosomal binding site, which are responsible for isoniazid (INH). The goal of this study was to assess the performance of RT-PCR compared to traditional culture-based methods for determining the drug susceptibility of M. tuberculosis. BACTEC TM MGIT TM 960 was used as the gold standard method for phenotypic drug susceptibility testing. Susceptibilities to INH and RIF were also determined by genotyping of katG, inhA and rpoB genes. RT-PCR based on molecular beacons probes was used to detect specific point mutations associated with resistance. The sensitivities of RT-PCR in detecting INH resistance using katG and inhA targets individually were 55% and 25%, respectively and 73% when combined. The sensitivity of the RT-PCR assay in detecting RIF resistance was 99%. The median time to complete the RT-PCR assay was three-four hours. The specificities for tests were both 100%. Our results confirm that RT-PCR can detect INH and RIF resistance in less than four hours with high sensitivity.

Epigenetic mechanisms in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: An emerging field.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging health concern in both developed and non-developed world, encompassing from simple steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and liver cancer. Incidence and prevalence of this disease are increasing due to the socioeconomic transition and change to harmful diet. Currently, gold standard method in NAFLD diagnosis is liver biopsy, despite complications and lack of accuracy due to sampling error. Further, pathogenesis of NAFLD is not fully understood, but is well-known that obesity, diabetes and metabolic derangements played a major role in disease development and progression. Besides, gut microbioma and host genetic and epigenetic background could explain considerable interindividual variability. Knowledge that epigenetics, heritable events not caused by changes in DNA sequence, contribute to development of diseases has been a revolution in the last few years. Recently, evidences are accumulating revealing the important role of epigenetics in NAFLD pathogenesis and in NASH genesis. Histone modifications, changes in DNA methylation and aberrant profiles or microRNAs could boost development of NAFLD and transition into clinical relevant status. PNPLA3 genotype GG has been associated with a more progressive disease and epigenetics could modulate this effect. The impact of epigenetic on NAFLD progression could deserve further applications on therapeutic targets together with future non-invasive methods useful for the diagnosis and staging of NAFLD.

International survey on skin patch test procedures, attitudes and interpretation.

BACKGROUND Skin patch test is the gold standard method in diagnosing contact allergy. Although used for more than 100 years, the patch test procedure is performed with variability around the world. A number of factors can influence the test results, namely the quality of reagents used, the timing of the application, the patch test series (allergens/haptens) that have been used for testing, the appropriate interpretation of the skin reactions or the evaluation of the patient's benefit. METHODS We performed an Internet -based survey with 38 questions covering the educational background of respondents, patch test methods and interpretation. The questionnaire was distributed among all representatives of national member societies of the World Allergy Organization (WAO), and the WAO Junior Members Group. RESULTS One hundred sixty-nine completed surveys were received from 47 countries. The majority of participants had more than 5 years of clinical practice (61 %) and routinely carried out patch tests (70 %). Both allergists and dermatologists were responsible for carrying out the patch tests. We could observe the use of many different guidelines regardless the geographical distribution. The use of home-made preparations was indicated by 47 % of participants and 73 % of the respondents performed 2 or 3 readings. Most of the responders indicated having patients with adverse reactions, including erythroderma (12 %); however, only 30 % of members completed a consent form before conducting the patch test. DISCUSSION The heterogeneity of patch test practices may be influenced by the level of awareness of clinical guidelines, different training backgrounds, accessibility to various types of devices, the patch test series (allergens/haptens) used for testing, type of clinical practice (public or private practice, clinical or research-based institution), infrastructure availability, financial/commercial implications and regulations among others. CONCLUSION There is a lack of a worldwide homogeneity of patch test procedures, and this raises concerns about the need for standardization and harmonization of this important diagnostic procedure.

Avaliação dos Caudais de Ar Novo Garantidos por Sistemas de Ventilação Natural ou Híbrida em Edifícios Escolares

O cumprimento dos caudais de referência impostos pela nova situação regulamentar contribui para custos de energia elevados em edifícios escolares. Daí a importância de fazer um estudo aprofundado de como a ventilação natural ou híbrida pode contribuir para reduzir esses custos. É neste âmbito que se enquadra o presente trabalho, cujo objectivo é a avaliação dos caudais de ar novo garantidos por sistemas de ventilação natural ou híbrida em edifícios escolares. Avaliou-se a contribuição da ventilação natural para o caudal de ar novo. Fez-se uma análise dos modelos que descrevem a ventilação natural que permitem obter uma estimativa da área das aberturas nas fachadas, a partir de cada estratégia da mesma (efeito da diferença de temperaturas, do vento e da sua acção conjunta). Apresentam-se duas metodologias de estimativa das áreas das aberturas nas fachadas do edifício, através da ventilação natural. A primeira consiste na utilização de uma ferramenta de cálculo simplificado ClassVent, disponibilizada no regulamento de ventilação para edifícios escolares aos projectistas ingleses, BB101 (Building Bulletin 101). Na segunda recorre-se a um modelo empírico (The Britsh Standard Method), para desenvolver um software simplificado (Ventilação Natural), que foi elaborado em linguagem Visual Basic pela autora.

Chest pulse-wave velocity: a novel approach to assess arterial stiffness.

Pulse-wave velocity (PWV) is considered as the gold-standard method to assess arterial stiffness, an independent predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Current available devices that measure PWV need to be operated by skilled medical staff, thus, reducing the potential use of PWV in the ambulatory setting. In this paper, we present a new technique allowing continuous, unsupervised measurements of pulse transit times (PTT) in central arteries by means of a chest sensor. This technique relies on measuring the propagation time of pressure pulses from their genesis in the left ventricle to their later arrival at the cutaneous vasculature on the sternum. Combined thoracic impedance cardiography and phonocardiography are used to detect the opening of the aortic valve, from which a pre-ejection period (PEP) value is estimated. Multichannel reflective photoplethysmography at the sternum is used to detect the distal pulse-arrival time (PAT). A PTT value is then calculated as PTT = PAT - PEP. After optimizing the parameters of the chest PTT calculation algorithm on a nine-subject cohort, a prospective validation study involving 31 normo- and hypertensive subjects was performed. 1/chest PTT correlated very well with the COMPLIOR carotid to femoral PWV (r = 0.88, p < 10 (-9)). Finally, an empirical method to map chest PTT values onto chest PWV values is explored.

Nouvelles méthodes pour le diagnostic des infections liées aux implants [New methods for the diagnosis of implant-associated infections]

For successful treatment of prosthetic joint infection, the identification of the infecting microorganism is crucial. Cultures of synovial fluid and intraoperative periprosthetic tissue represent the standard method for diagnosing prosthetic joint infection. Rapid and accurate diagnostic tools which can detect a broad range of causing microorganisms and their antimicrobial resistance are increasingly needed. With newer diagnostic techniques, such as sonication of removed implants, microcalorimetry, molecular methods and mass spectrometry, the sensitivity has been significantly increased. In this article, we describe the conventional and newer diagnostic techniques with their advantages and potential future applications.

Comparison of digestion methods to determine heavy metals in fertilizers

The lack of a standard method to regulate heavy metal determination in Brazilian fertilizers and the subsequent use of several digestion methods have produced variations in the results, hampering interpretation. Thus, the aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of three digestion methods for determination of metals such as Cd, Ni, Pb, and Cr in fertilizers. Samples of 45 fertilizers marketed in northeastern Brazil were used. A fertilizer sample with heavy metal contents certified by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was used as control. The following fertilizers were tested: rock phosphate; organo-mineral fertilizer with rock phosphate; single superphosphate; triple superphosphate; mixed N-P-K fertilizer; and fertilizer with micronutrients. The substances were digested according to the method recommended by the Ministry for Agriculture, Livestock and Supply of Brazil (MAPA) and by the two methods 3051A and 3052 of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). By the USEPA method 3052, higher portions of the less soluble metals such as Ni and Pb were recovered, indicating that the conventional digestion methods for fertilizers underestimate the total amount of these elements. The results of the USEPA method 3051A were very similar to those of the method currently used in Brazil (Brasil, 2006). The latter is preferable, in view of the lower cost requirement for acids, a shorter digestion period and greater reproducibility.

Evaluating non-adherence to immunosuppressant medications in pediatric liver transplant recipients.

Non-adherence with recommended immunosuppressant medications is common post-pediatric liver transplant and is the most important reason for organ rejection in long-term survivors. However, there is currently no validated, standard method to measure adherence, with a well-defined threshold, making it extremely difficult to evaluate interventions to improve adherence. Previous studies have suggested that the degree of fluctuation of medication blood levels over time can provide an idea about how regularly the medication is being taken. The present study, conducted at UCLA medical center, sought to identify a specific threshold value of the s.d. of individual tacrolimus blood levels in pediatric liver transplant recipients which would be associated with rejection episodes in these patients. A threshold of 3.0 has been identified in other studies, and was supported by the analysis of retrospective data from 96 subjects. However, further analysis found that a s.d. of 2.5 appeared to have a better fit with the data. These findings suggest the utility of monitoring the s.d. of routine tacrolimus blood levels in pediatric liver transplant recipients for detecting non-adherence to immunosuppressant medication prior to clinical rejection, allowing earlier interventions.

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Alveolar haemorrhage (AH) is a rare and potentially life-threatening condition characterised by diffuse blood leakage from the pulmonary microcirculation into the alveolar spaces due to microvascular damage. It is not a single disease but a clinical syndrome that may have numerous causes. Autoimmune disorders account for fewer than half of cases, whereas the majority are due to nonimmune causes such as left heart disease, infections, drug toxicities, coagulopathies and malignancies. The clinical picture includes haemoptysis, diffuse alveolar opacities at imaging and anaemia. Bronchoalveolar lavage is the gold standard method for diagnosing AH. The lavage fluid appears macroscopically haemorrhagic and/or contains numerous haemosiderin-laden macrophages. The diagnostic work-up includes search for autoimmune disorders, review of drugs and exposures, assessment of coagulation and left heart function, and search for infectious agents. Renal biopsy is often indicated if AH is associated with renal involvement, whereas lung biopsy is only rarely useful. Therapy aims at correction of reversible factors and immunosuppressive therapy in autoimmune causes, with plasmapheresis in selected situations.