A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Contrast ultrasound: a simple-to-use phase-shifting medium offers saline infusion sonography-like images.

OBJECTIVE: To test the ability of a novel phase-shifting medium (PSM) to provide sustained distension of the uterine cavity and produce saline infusion sonography (SIS)-like images in a simplified contrast ultrasound procedure. DESIGN: Prospective pilot feasibility trial of a new diagnostic procedure, contrast ultrasound. SETTING: Clinical reproductive endocrine and infertility unit of regional teaching hospital. PATIENT(S): Twenty-six asymptomatic infertile women (group I) and 27 women presenting with dysfunctional uterine bleeding (DUB) who were scheduled for exploratory surgery (group II). INTERVENTION(S): All women who were temporarily on oral contraceptive first had a regular pelvic ultrasound followed by the intrauterine instillation of up to 3 mL PSM, using a regular insemination catheter, after which all instruments were removed and a regular ultrasound was performed again. RESULT(S): In all 53 women, intrauterine instillation of 1-3 mL PSM resulted in a 3-7 mm uterine distension, sufficient to produce SIS-like images of the uterine cavity that lasted 7-10 min. Contrast ultrasound revealed an endometrial polyp in 3 asymptomatic women of group I. In group II. 12 of 14 women (86%) whose vaginal ultrasound were positive or dubious had positive findings with contrast ultrasound; 9 of 12 patients whose vaginal ultrasounds were negative also had positive contrast ultrasound findings. All the positive and negative findings of contrast ultrasound made in group II were confirmed anatomically (sensitivity and specificity of 100%), whereas the correlation for standard vaginal ultrasound was markedly lower at 57.1% and 85.7%, respectively. Most patients (46 of 53) reported no discomfort during or after the procedure, and 7 women described the procedure as mildly uncomfortable. CONCLUSION(S): Contrast ultrasound, a novel simple diagnostic procedure conducted after intrauterine instillation of 1-3 mL PSM using a simple plastic catheter, delivered SIS-quality images in asymptomatic (group I) and symptomatic (group II) patients while retaining the simplicity of standard ultrasound. We therefore foresee broad application of contrast ultrasound for sensitive and specific assessment for uterine pathologies in the physician's office.

Recueil des statuts, lettres patentes, édits, déclarations du Roy. arrests... sentences... rendus au profit de la communauté des maîtres et marchands chaudronniers... de Paris... recueillis et mis en ordre par... Toussaint-Joseph Charlot,...

[Acte]

Sentence de la maîtrise des eaux et forêts qui ordonne que les maîtres oiseleurs de Paris, ainsi que les marchands forains qui apporteront en cette ville des serins et autres oiseaux rares et étrangers, seront respectivement maintenus au libre exercice de ce commerce, à la charge de se conformer aux statuts et réglements pour l'exposition, acquit et vente desdits oiseaux ; et pour la contravention faite par un marchand forain y dénommé confisque, au profit de la communauté des oiseleurs, les perroquets, cages et augets saisis sur ce particulier

[Acte. 1755-08-26. Paris]

Management control in non-profit organizations: The case of the Associations of Economists in Spain

The number of non-profit organizations has grown considerably over thelast decades, however management control techniques are not being introducedwith the same frequency as in lucrative organizations. The increasedcompetition in this sector has created a growing interest in managementcontrol techniques but with little empirical research in the area. Withthe aim to throw some light over the uses of management control inprofessional associations we have focused in the associations foreconomists in Spain as a particular case of a non-lucrative body.Specifically, the paper comprises three surveys addressed to the followingsectors:1) To the 30 Spanish associations of economists.2) To associations related to the business and/or economics area operatingin the United Kingdom.3) To members of the association of economists in Catalonia (Col.legid'Economistes de Catalunya).Results indicate that management accounting tools are used exceptionally,many times only the minimum legal requirements. The critical situation ofthe associations of economists in Spain requires the implementation ofinformation systems, specially taking into account the differentspecialities of economists and offering to its members, services and productsthat are not available through profit organizations.

Traité général de science économique / par Christian Cornélissen. T. 3, Théorie du capital et du profit

Collection : Bibliothèque internationale d'économie politique ; 87-88

Dynamic social representations of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic: Shifting patterns of sense-making and blame

We investigate dynamics of public perceptions of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to understand changing patterns of sense-making and blame regarding the outbreak of emerging infectious diseases. We draw on social representation theory combined with a dramaturgical perspective to identify changes in how various collectives are depicted over the course of the pandemic, according to three roles: heroes, villains and victims. Quantitative results based on content analysis of three cross-sectional waves of interviews show a shift from mentions of distant collectives (e.g., far-flung countries) at Wave 1 to local collectives (e.g., risk groups) as the pandemic became of more immediate concern (Wave 2) and declined (Wave 3). Semi-automated content analysis of media coverage shows similar results. Thematic analyses of the discourse associated with collectives revealed that many were consistently perceived as heroes, villains and victims.