Stage fright: its experience as a problem and coping with it.

PURPOSE AND METHOD: This questionnaire survey of 190 university music students assessed negative feelings of music performance anxiety (MPA) before performing, the experience of stage fright as a problem, and how closely they are associated with each other. The study further investigated whether the experience of stage fright as a problem and negative feelings of MPA predict the coping behavior of the music students. Rarely addressed coping issues were assessed, i.e., self-perceived effectiveness of different coping strategies, knowledge of possible risks and acceptance of substance-based coping strategies, and need for more support.RESULTS: The results show that one-third of the students experienced stage fright as a problem and that this was only moderately correlated with negative feelings of MPA. The experience of stage fright as a problem significantly predicted the frequency of use and the acceptance of medication as a coping strategy. Breathing exercises and self-control techniques were rated as effective as medication. Finally, students expressed a strong need to receive more support (65%) and more information (84%) concerning stage fright.CONCLUSION: Stage fright was experienced as a problem and perceived as having negative career consequences by a considerable percentage of the surveyed students. In addition to a desire for more help and support, the students expressed an openness and willingness to seriously discuss and address the topic of stage fright. This provides a necessary and promising basis for optimal career preparation and, hence, an opportunity to prevent occupational problems in professional musicians. [Authors]

Personality traits, behavioral and psychological symptoms and cognitive decline in patients at an early stage of Alzheimer's disease

The aim of this doctoral thesis was to study personality characteristics of patients at an early stage of Alzheimer's disease (AD), and more specifically to describe personality and its changes over time, and to explore its possible links with psychological and symptoms (BPS) and cognitive level. The results were compared to those of a group of participants without cognitive disorder through three empirical studies. In the first study, the findings showed significant personality changes that follow a specific trend in the clinical group. The profil of personality changes showed an increase in Neuroticism and a decrease in Extraversion, Openess to experiences, and Conscientiousness over time. The second study highlighted that personality and BPS occur early in the cours of AD. Recognizing them as possible precoce signs of neurodegeneration may prove to be a key factor for early detection and intervention. In the third study, a significant association between personality changes and cognitive status was observed in the patients with incipient AD. Thus, changes in Neuroticism and Conscientiousness were linked with cognitive deterioration, whereas decreased Openness to experiences and Conscientiousness over time predicted loss of independence in daily functioning. Other well-known factors such as age, education level or civil status were taken into account to predict cognitive decline. The three studies suggested five important implications: (1) cost-effective screening should take into account premorbid and specific personality changes; (2) psycho-educative interventions should provide information on the possible personality changes and BPS that may occur at the beginning of the disease; (3) using personality traits alongside other variables in the future studies on prevention might help to better understand AD's etiology; (4) individual treatment plans (psychotherapeutic, social, and pharmacological) might be adapted to the specific changes in personality profiles; (5) more researches are needed to study the impact of social-cultural and lifestyle variables on the development of AD.

Responses to a crisis: FASA-Renault in Spain during the 1970s

[cat] Aquest treball analitza la trajectòria de l’empresa FASA-Renault durant la dècada dels setanta del segle XX. Aquest període compren els primers anys de la crisis experimentada per l’economia i la industria espanyola entre 1974 y 1985. A nivell extern, l’economia espanyola es va veure afectada per dos xocs en el preu del petroli. A nivell intern, la industria de l’automòbil es va veure afectat per un decret governamental: es tractava de l’anomenat decret “Ford”, aprovat l’any 1972, el qual facilitava l’establiment de Ford a Espanya. Aquest decret va tenir greus conseqüències per a SEAT, el principal productor espanyol. Entre 1972 y 1980 la producció de SEAT es va reduir en una tercera part i la seva situació financera va esdevenir insostenible. Per contra, en aquest període FASA-Renault va esdevenir el principal productor ubicat a Espanya (la seva producció es va multiplicar per 3,5 durant els anys setanta) i en líder de ventes en el mercat espanyol (la seva penetració es va incrementar del 23 al 36%). El principal objectiu del treball es analitzar els factor que expliquen l’èxit de FASARenault durant els anys setanta.

Responses to a crisis: FASA-Renault in Spain during the 1970s

[cat] Aquest treball analitza la trajectòria de l’empresa FASA-Renault durant la dècada dels setanta del segle XX. Aquest període compren els primers anys de la crisis experimentada per l’economia i la industria espanyola entre 1974 y 1985. A nivell extern, l’economia espanyola es va veure afectada per dos xocs en el preu del petroli. A nivell intern, la industria de l’automòbil es va veure afectat per un decret governamental: es tractava de l’anomenat decret “Ford”, aprovat l’any 1972, el qual facilitava l’establiment de Ford a Espanya. Aquest decret va tenir greus conseqüències per a SEAT, el principal productor espanyol. Entre 1972 y 1980 la producció de SEAT es va reduir en una tercera part i la seva situació financera va esdevenir insostenible. Per contra, en aquest període FASA-Renault va esdevenir el principal productor ubicat a Espanya (la seva producció es va multiplicar per 3,5 durant els anys setanta) i en líder de ventes en el mercat espanyol (la seva penetració es va incrementar del 23 al 36%). El principal objectiu del treball es analitzar els factor que expliquen l’èxit de FASARenault durant els anys setanta.

Use of alternative and complementary therapies in labor and delivery care: a cross-sectional study of midwives" training in Catalan hospitals accredited as centers for normal birth

Background: The use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) and complementary and alternative therapies (CAT) during pregnancy is increasing. Scientific evidence for CAM and CAT in the field of obstetrics mainly covers pain relief in labor. Midwives are responsible for labor and delivery care: hence, their knowledge of CAM and CAT is important. The aims of this study are to describe the professional profile of midwives who provide care for natural childbirth in Catalan hospitals accredited as centers for normal birth, to assess midwives" level of training in CAT and their use of these therapies, and to identify specific resources for CAT in labor wards. Methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional, quantitative method was used to assess the level of training and use of CAT by midwives working at 28 hospitals in Catalonia, Spain, accredited as public normal birth centers. Results: Just under a third of midwives (30.4%) trained in CAT after completion of basic training. They trained in an average of 5.97 therapies (SD 3.56). The number of CAT in which the midwives were trained correlated negatively with age (r = - 0.284; p < 0.001) and with their time working at the hospital in years (r = - 0.136; p = 0.036). Midwives trained in CAT considered that the following therapies were useful or very useful for pain relief during labor and delivery: relaxation techniques (64.3%), hydrotherapy (84.8%) and the application of compresses to the perineum (75.9%). The availability of resources for providing CAT during normal birth care varied widely from center to center. Conclusions: Age may influence attitudes towards training. It is important to increase the number of midwives trained in CAM for pain relief during childbirth, in order to promote the use of CAT and ensure efficiency and safety. CAT resources at accredited hospitals providing normal childbirth care should also be standardized.

Use of alternative and complementary therapies in labor and delivery care: a cross-sectional study of midwives" training in Catalan hospitals accredited as centers for normal birth

Background: The use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) and complementary and alternative therapies (CAT) during pregnancy is increasing. Scientific evidence for CAM and CAT in the field of obstetrics mainly covers pain relief in labor. Midwives are responsible for labor and delivery care: hence, their knowledge of CAM and CAT is important. The aims of this study are to describe the professional profile of midwives who provide care for natural childbirth in Catalan hospitals accredited as centers for normal birth, to assess midwives" level of training in CAT and their use of these therapies, and to identify specific resources for CAT in labor wards. Methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional, quantitative method was used to assess the level of training and use of CAT by midwives working at 28 hospitals in Catalonia, Spain, accredited as public normal birth centers. Results: Just under a third of midwives (30.4%) trained in CAT after completion of basic training. They trained in an average of 5.97 therapies (SD 3.56). The number of CAT in which the midwives were trained correlated negatively with age (r = - 0.284; p < 0.001) and with their time working at the hospital in years (r = - 0.136; p = 0.036). Midwives trained in CAT considered that the following therapies were useful or very useful for pain relief during labor and delivery: relaxation techniques (64.3%), hydrotherapy (84.8%) and the application of compresses to the perineum (75.9%). The availability of resources for providing CAT during normal birth care varied widely from center to center. Conclusions: Age may influence attitudes towards training. It is important to increase the number of midwives trained in CAM for pain relief during childbirth, in order to promote the use of CAT and ensure efficiency and safety. CAT resources at accredited hospitals providing normal childbirth care should also be standardized.

DNA Topoisomerase I Gene Copy Number and mRNA Expression Assessed as Predictive Biomarkers for Adjuvant Irinotecan in Stage II/III Colon Cancer.

PURPOSE: Prospective-retrospective assessment of theTOP1gene copy number andTOP1mRNA expression as predictive biomarkers for adjuvant irinotecan in stage II/III colon cancer. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue microarrays were obtained from an adjuvant colon cancer trial (PETACC3) where patients were randomized to 5-fluorouracil/folinic acid with or without additional irinotecan.TOP1copy number status was analyzed by fluorescencein situhybridization (FISH) using aTOP1/CEN20 dual-probe combination.TOP1mRNA data were available from previous analyses. RESULTS: TOP1FISH and follow-up data were obtained from 534 patients.TOP1gain was identified in 27% using a single-probe enumeration strategy (≥4TOP1signals per cell) and in 31% when defined by aTOP1/CEN20 ratio ≥ 1.5. The effect of additional irinotecan was not dependent onTOP1FISH status.TOP1mRNA data were available from 580 patients with stage III disease. Benefit of irinotecan was restricted to patients characterized byTOP1mRNA expression ≥ third quartile (RFS: HRadjusted, 0.59;P= 0.09; OS: HRadjusted, 0.44;P= 0.03). The treatment byTOP1mRNA interaction was not statistically significant, but in exploratory multivariable fractional polynomial interaction analysis, increasingTOP1mRNA values appeared to be associated with increasing benefit of irinotecan. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to theTOP1copy number, a trend was demonstrated for a predictive property ofTOP1mRNA expression. On the basis ofTOP1mRNA, it might be possible to identify a subgroup of patients where an irinotecan doublet is a clinically relevant option in the adjuvant setting of colon cancer.Clin Cancer Res; 22(7); 1621-31. ©2015 AACR.

The Finnish Paper Workers' Union at a crossroads: Labor union representativeness in a changing environment, 1980-2008

This thesis consists of four articles and an introductory section. The main research questions in all the articles refer to the changes in the representativeness of the Finnish Paper Workers' Union. Representativeness stands for the entire entity of external, internal, legal and reputational factors that enable the labor union to represent its members and achieve its goals. This concept is based on an extensive reading of quantitative and qualitative industrial relations literature, which includes works based on Marxist labor-capital relations (such as Hyman's industrial relations studies), and more recent union density studies as well as gender- and ethnic diversity-based 'union revitalization' studies. Müller-Jentsch's German studies of industrial relations have been of particular importance as well as Streeck's industrial unionism and technology studies. The concept of representativeness is an attempt to combine the insights of these diverse strands of literature and bring the scientific discussion of labor unions back to the core of a union's function: representing its members. As such, it can be seen as a theoretical innovation. The concept helps to acknowledge both the heterogeneity of the membership and the totality of a labor union organization. The concept of representativeness aims to move beyond notions of 'power'. External representativeness can be expressed through the position of the labor union in the industrial relations system and the economy. Internal representativeness focuses on the aspects of labor unions that relate to the function of the union as an association with members, such as internal democracy. Legal representativeness lies in the formal legal position of the union – its rights and instruments. This includes collective bargaining legislation, co-decision rules and industrial conflict legislation. Reputational representativeness is related to how the union is seen by other actors and the general public, and can be approximated using data on strike activity. All these aspects of representativeness are path-dependent, and show the results of previous struggles over issues. The concept of representativeness goes beyond notions of labor union power and symbolizes an attempt to bring back the focus of industrial relations studies to the union's basic function of representing its members. The first article shows in detail the industrial conflict of the Finnish paper industry in 2005. The intended focus was the issue of gender in the negotiations over a new collective agreement, but the focal point of the industrial conflict was the issue of outsourcing and how this should be organized. Also, the issue of continuous shifts as an issue of working time was very important. The drawn-out conflict can be seen as a struggle over principles, and under pressure the labor union had to concede ground on the aforementioned issues. The article concludes that in this specific conflict, the union represented its' female members to a lesser extent, because the other issues took such priority. Furthermore, because of the substantive concessions. the union lost some of its internal representativeness, and the stubbornness of the union may have even harmed the reputation of the union. This article also includes an early version of the representativeness framework, through which this conflict is analyzed. The second article discusses wage developments, union density and collective bargaining within the context of representativeness. It is shown that the union has been able to secure substantial benefits for its members, regardless of declining employment. Collective agreements have often been based on centralized incomes policies, but the paper sector has not always joined these. Attention is furthermore paid to the changing competition of the General Assembly, with a surprisingly strong position of the Left Alliance still. In an attempt to replicate analysis of union density measures, an analysis of sectoral union density shows that similar factors as in aggregate data influence this measure, though – due to methodological issues – the results may not be robust. On this issue, it can be said that the method of analysis for aggregate union density is not suitable for sectoral union density analysis. The increasingly conflict-ridden industrial relations predicted have not actually materialized. The article concludes by asking whether the aim of ever-increasing wages is a sustainable one in the light of the pressures of globalization, though wage costs are a relatively small part of total costs. The third article discusses the history and use of outsourcing in the Finnish paper industry. It is shown using Hyman's framework of constituencies that over time, the perspective of the union changed from 'members of the Paper Workers' Union' to a more specific view of who is a core member of the union. Within the context of the industrial unionism that the union claims to practice, this is an important change. The article shows that the union more and more caters for a core group, while auxiliary personnel is less important to the union's identity and constituencies, which means that the union's internal representativeness has decreased. Maintenance workers are an exception; the union and employers have developed a rotating system that increases the efficient allocation of these employees. The core reason of the exceptional status of maintenance personnel is their high level of non-transferable skills. In the end it is debatable whether the compromise on outsourcing solves the challenges facing the industry. The fourth article shows diverging discourses within the union with regard to union-employer partnership for competitiveness improvements and instruments of local union representatives. In the collective agreement of 2008, the provision regulating wage effects of significant changes in the organization or content of work was thoroughly changed, though this mainly reflected decisions by the Labor Court on the pre-2008 version of the provision. This change laid bare the deep rift between the Social Democratic and Left Alliance (ex-Communist) factions of the union. The article argues that through the changed legal meaning of the provision, the union was able to transform concession bargaining into a basis for partnership. The internal discontent about this issue is nonetheless substantial and a threat to the unity of the union, both locally and at the union level. On the basis of the results of the articles, other factors influencing representativeness, such as technology and EU law and an overview of the main changes in the Finnish paper industry, it is concluded that, especially in recent years, the Finnish Paper Workers' Union has lost some of its representativeness. In particular, the loss of the efficiency of strikes is noted, the compromise on outsourcing which may have alienated a substantial part of the union's membership, and the change in the collective agreement of 2008 have caused this decline. In the latter case, the internal disunion on that issue shows the constraints of the union's internal democracy. Furthermore, the failure of the union to join the TEAM industrial union (by democratic means), the internal conflicts and a narrow focus on its own sector may also hurt the union in the future, as the paper industry in Finland is going through a structural change. None of these changes in representativeness would have been so drastic without the considerable pressure of globalization - in particular changing markets, changing technology and a loss of domestic investments to foreign investments, which in the end have benefited the corporations more than the Finnish employees of these corporations. Taken together, the union risks becoming socially irrelevant in time, though it will remain formally very strong on the basis of its institutional setting and financial situation.

Success Factors of Accelerators

There is wide interest in new business creation especially in high-growth companies because of the transition from the industrial era to the information era. Previously traditional industry has been a major employer but now industrial employment is moving to countries that provide cheaper labor, and therefore Western countries are reaching for new solutions that could safeguard the current stage of economic wealth. High-growth companies are seen as one opportunity. The aim of this study is to clarify the success factors of accelerators. Acceleration is a relatively new phenomenon, which has its roots in the venture capital industry. Their fundamental goal is to create high-growth companies that have global market potential. Accelerators could be defined as venture-to-capital actors that bridge the competence and equity gaps of startups. The access to the knowledge and funding are the prerequisites of the existence of accelerator. This research was qualitative and based on 18 semi-structured or thematic interviews with 15 accelerators and topic related professionals from Finland, Estonia, Denmark, Germany, the UK and the US. The data was analyzed with a content analysis approach. The study revealed three fundamental preconditions for success. First, the deep business knowledge and access to relevant networks is a foundation and fundamental precondition. Second, the ability to transfer knowledge from the accelerator to startups has significant importance. And third, the dynamics of an accelerator organization can restrict the use of business knowledge. Moreover, the attraction of an accelerator and team selection are crucial issues for success.

Uterine Doppler velocimetry of the uterine arteries in the second and third trimesters for the prediction of gestational outcome

PURPOSE: The aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate the value of uterine artery Doppler sonography during the second and third trimesters in the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcome in low-risk women. METHODS: From July 2011 to August 2012, a total of 205 singleton pregnant women presenting at our antenatal clinic were enrolled in this prospective study and were assessed for baseline demographic and obstetric data. They underwent ultrasound evaluation at the time of second and third trimesters, both included Doppler assessment of bilateral uterine arteries to determine the values of the pulsatility index (PI) and resistance index (RI) and presence of early diastolic notch. The endpoint of this study was assessing the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of Doppler ultrasonography of the uterine artery, for the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes including preeclampsia, stillbirth, placental abruption and preterm labor. RESULTS: The mean age of cases was 26.4±5.11. The uterine artery PI and RI values for both second (PI: 1.1±0.42 versus 1.53±0.59, p=0.002; RI: 0.55±0.09 versus 0.72±0.13, p=0.000 respectively) and third-trimester (PI: 0.77±0.31 versus 1.09±0.46, p=0.000; RI: 0.46±0.10 versus 0.60±0.14, p=0.010 respectively) evaluations were significantly higher in patients with adverse pregnancy outcome than in normal women. Combination of PI and RI >95th percentile and presence of bilateral notch in second trimester get sensitivity and specificity of 36.1 and 97% respectively, while these measures were 57.5 and 98.2% in third trimester. CONCLUSIONS: According to our study, it seems that uterine artery Doppler may be a valuable tool for the prediction of a variety of adverse outcomes in second and third trimesters.

A third generation regimen VACOP-B with or without adjuvant radiotherapy for aggressive localized non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: report from the Italian Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma Co-operative Study Group

The objective of this multicenter prospective study was to determine the clinical efficacy and toxicity of a polychemotherapeutic third generation regimen, VACOP-B, with or without radiotherapy as front-line therapy in aggressive localized non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Ninety-three adult patients (47 males and 46 females, median age 45 years) with aggressive localized non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, 43 in stage I and 50 in stage II (non-bulky), were included in the study. Stage I patients received VACOP-B for 6 weeks plus involved field radiotherapy and stage II patients received 12 weeks VACOP-B plus involved field radiotherapy on residual masses. Eighty-six (92.5%) achieved complete remission and 4 (4.3%) partial remission. Three patients (3.2%) were primarily resistant. Ten-year probability of survival, progression-free survival and disease-free survival were 87.3, 79.9 and 83.9%, respectively. Eighty-four patients are surviving at a median observation time of 57 months (range: 6-126). Statistical analysis showed no difference between stages I and II in terms of response, ten-year probability of survival, progression-free survival or disease-free survival. Side effects and toxicity were negligible and were similar in the two patient groups. The results of this prospective study suggest that 6 weeks of VACOP-B treatment plus radiotherapy may be the therapy of choice in stage I aggressive non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Twelve weeks of VACOP-B treatment with or without radiotherapy was shown to be effective and feasible for stage II. These observations need to be confirmed by a phase III study comparing first and third generation protocols in stage I-II aggressive non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

Synnytyksen ponnistusvaiheen hoidon käytännöt. Yhteys ensisynnyttäjän välilihan kuntoon synnytyksen jälkeen, synnytyskokemukseen, kipuun ja seksuaaliterveyteen

Hyvän syntymän hoidon tavoitteena on turvata synnyttäjän paras mahdollinen terveys, vähentää tarpeetonta puuttumista synnytyksen kulkuun ja mahdollistaa voimaannuttava synnytyskokemus perheelle. Hyvä syntymän hoito ja siihen liittyvä kätilöiden kliinisen hoitotyön osaaminen ei voi kehittyä, ellei hoitotyön käytäntöjä tutkita. Suomalaista hoitotieteellistä syntymän hoitoon liittyvää tutkimusta on vähän. Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli kuvata synnytyksen ponnistusvaiheen hoidon käytäntöjä Suomen synnytyssairaaloissa. Lisäksi seurantatutkimuksen avulla selvitettiin, miten ensisynnyttäjät kokivat synnytyksen ponnistusvaiheen, sen aikana saamansa hoidon, ensisynnyttäjien synnytyskokemusta, kivun kokemista, vointia kolmena päivänä synnytyksen jälkeen sekä heidän seksuaaliterveyttään ensimmäisen vuoden aikana synnytyksen jälkeen. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tuottaa tietoa, jonka avulla voidaan kehittää synnytyksen ponnistusvaiheen hoitoa ja lisätä tietoa synnyttäneiden naisten voinnista ja seksuaaliterveydestä. Tutkimuksen ensimmäinen osio toteutettiin poikkileikkaustutkimuksena (2009), johon osallistui Suomen synnytyssairaaloiden synnytysosastoilla työskentelevät kätilöt (N = 662). Tutkimuksen toinen osio toteutettiin seurantatutkimuksena (2009−2011), jossa oli neljä mittausajankohtaa: kolmantena päivänä synnytyksestä sekä kolmen, kuuden ja kahdentoista kuukauden kuluttua synnytyksestä. Tähän osioon osallistui spontaanisti alateitse yhden elävän lapsen (pää tarjoutuvana) synnyttäneet ensisynnyttäjät (N = 453) ja sikiön perätilan vuoksi suunnitellusti keisarileikatut ensisynnyttäjät (N = 84). Aineisto analysoitiin tilastollisin menetelmin. Tutkimustulosten mukaan osa kätilöiden käyttämistä synnytyksen ponnistusvaiheen hoitokäytännöistä ei ole näyttöön perustuvia. Synnytyssairaalan synnytyksen hoidon kulttuuri näyttää siirtyvän mallioppimisen kautta. Ensisynnyttäjät kokivat synnytyksen ponnistusvaiheen hoidon pääsääntöisesti myönteisenä. Alateitse synnyttäneillä ensisynnyttäjillä oli myönteisempi synnytyskokemus ja vähemmän kipua heti synnytyksen jälkeen ja kolmena synnytyksen jälkeisenä päivänä verrattuna keisarileikkauksella synnyttäneisiin ensisynnyttäjiin. Alateitse synnyttäneillä ensisynnyttäjillä kipu ja ompeleet eivät vaikuttaneet haitallisesti vastasyntyneen hoitoon tai imetykseen niin paljon kuin keisarileikkauksella synnyttäneillä ensisynnyttäjillä. Välilihan leikkaus-, repeämä- tai keisarileikkaushaavat olivat täysin parantuneet suurimmalla osalla naisista kolmen kuukauden kuluttua synnytyksestä. Yleisimpiä naisten kokemia oireita ensimmäisen vuoden aikana synnytyksestä olivat emättimen kostumisen vaikeus, yhdyntäkivut, peräpukamat sekä arpikudoksen kipu ja kiristys. Sukupuolinen halukkuus ja tyytyväisyys seksielämään olivat huonompaa ensimmäisen vuoden aikana synnytyksestä verrattuna aikaan ennen raskautta ja synnytystä. Synnytyksen aikaisella hoitotyöllä ja näyttöön perustuvalla synnytyksen ponnistusvaiheen hoidolla on suuri merkitys naisen synnytyskokemukseen, synnytyksen jälkeiseen vointiin ja seksuaaliterveyteen.

Evaluation of a stage II screening protocol for prostate cancer

In 2003, prostate cancer (PCa) is estimated to be the most commonly diagnosed cancer and third leading cause of cancer death in Canada. During PCa population screening, approximately 25% of patients with a normal digital rectal examination (DRE) and intermediate serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) level have PCa. Since all patients typically undergo biopsy, it is expected that approximately 75% of these procedures are unnecessary. The purpose of this study was to compare the degree of efficacy of clinical tests and algorithms in stage II screening for PCa while preventing unnecessary biopsies from occurring. The sample consisted of 201 consecutive men who were suspected of PCa based on the results of a DRE and serum PSA. These men were referred for venipuncture and transrectal ultrasound (TRUS). Clinical tests included TRUS, agespecific reference range PSA (Age-PSA), prostate specific antigen density (PSAD), and free-to-total prostate specific antigen ratio (%fPSA). Clinical results were evaluated individually and within algorithms. Cutoffs of 0.12 and 0.15 ng/ml/cc were employed for PSAD. Cutoffs that would provide a minimum sensitivity of 0.90 and 0.95, respectively were utilized for %fPSA. Statistical analysis included ROC curve analysis, calculated sensitivity (Sens), specificity (Spec), and positive likelihood ratio (LR), with corresponding confidence intervals (Cl). The %fPSA, at a 23% cutoff ({ Sens=0.92; CI, 0.06}, {Spec=0.4l; CI, 0.09}, {LR=1.56; CI, O.ll}), proved to be the most efficacious independent clinical test. The combination of PSAD (cutoff 0.15 ng/ml/cc) and %fPSA (cutoff 23%) ({Sens=0.93; CI, 0.06}, {Spec=0.38; CI, 0.08}, {LR=1.50; CI, 0.10}) was the most efficacious clinical algorithm. This study advocates the use of %fPSA at a cutoff of 23% when screening patients with an intermediate serum PSA and benign DRE.

Labor Market Institutions and Gender Differences in Wage Inequality.

In this paper, we present graphical and quantitative evidence on the important role played by changes in labor market institutions on the rise in wage inequality in the United States during the 1980s. We show that the decline in the real value of the minimium wage and in the rate of unionization explains over a third of the rise in inequality among men.

Exogeneity, weak identification and instrument selection in econometrics

La dernière décennie a connu un intérêt croissant pour les problèmes posés par les variables instrumentales faibles dans la littérature économétrique, c’est-à-dire les situations où les variables instrumentales sont faiblement corrélées avec la variable à instrumenter. En effet, il est bien connu que lorsque les instruments sont faibles, les distributions des statistiques de Student, de Wald, du ratio de vraisemblance et du multiplicateur de Lagrange ne sont plus standard et dépendent souvent de paramètres de nuisance. Plusieurs études empiriques portant notamment sur les modèles de rendements à l’éducation [Angrist et Krueger (1991, 1995), Angrist et al. (1999), Bound et al. (1995), Dufour et Taamouti (2007)] et d’évaluation des actifs financiers (C-CAPM) [Hansen et Singleton (1982,1983), Stock et Wright (2000)], où les variables instrumentales sont faiblement corrélées avec la variable à instrumenter, ont montré que l’utilisation de ces statistiques conduit souvent à des résultats peu fiables. Un remède à ce problème est l’utilisation de tests robustes à l’identification [Anderson et Rubin (1949), Moreira (2002), Kleibergen (2003), Dufour et Taamouti (2007)]. Cependant, il n’existe aucune littérature économétrique sur la qualité des procédures robustes à l’identification lorsque les instruments disponibles sont endogènes ou à la fois endogènes et faibles. Cela soulève la question de savoir ce qui arrive aux procédures d’inférence robustes à l’identification lorsque certaines variables instrumentales supposées exogènes ne le sont pas effectivement. Plus précisément, qu’arrive-t-il si une variable instrumentale invalide est ajoutée à un ensemble d’instruments valides? Ces procédures se comportent-elles différemment? Et si l’endogénéité des variables instrumentales pose des difficultés majeures à l’inférence statistique, peut-on proposer des procédures de tests qui sélectionnent les instruments lorsqu’ils sont à la fois forts et valides? Est-il possible de proposer les proédures de sélection d’instruments qui demeurent valides même en présence d’identification faible? Cette thèse se focalise sur les modèles structurels (modèles à équations simultanées) et apporte des réponses à ces questions à travers quatre essais. Le premier essai est publié dans Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 138 (2008) 2649 – 2661. Dans cet essai, nous analysons les effets de l’endogénéité des instruments sur deux statistiques de test robustes à l’identification: la statistique d’Anderson et Rubin (AR, 1949) et la statistique de Kleibergen (K, 2003), avec ou sans instruments faibles. D’abord, lorsque le paramètre qui contrôle l’endogénéité des instruments est fixe (ne dépend pas de la taille de l’échantillon), nous montrons que toutes ces procédures sont en général convergentes contre la présence d’instruments invalides (c’est-à-dire détectent la présence d’instruments invalides) indépendamment de leur qualité (forts ou faibles). Nous décrivons aussi des cas où cette convergence peut ne pas tenir, mais la distribution asymptotique est modifiée d’une manière qui pourrait conduire à des distorsions de niveau même pour de grands échantillons. Ceci inclut, en particulier, les cas où l’estimateur des double moindres carrés demeure convergent, mais les tests sont asymptotiquement invalides. Ensuite, lorsque les instruments sont localement exogènes (c’est-à-dire le paramètre d’endogénéité converge vers zéro lorsque la taille de l’échantillon augmente), nous montrons que ces tests convergent vers des distributions chi-carré non centrées, que les instruments soient forts ou faibles. Nous caractérisons aussi les situations où le paramètre de non centralité est nul et la distribution asymptotique des statistiques demeure la même que dans le cas des instruments valides (malgré la présence des instruments invalides). Le deuxième essai étudie l’impact des instruments faibles sur les tests de spécification du type Durbin-Wu-Hausman (DWH) ainsi que le test de Revankar et Hartley (1973). Nous proposons une analyse en petit et grand échantillon de la distribution de ces tests sous l’hypothèse nulle (niveau) et l’alternative (puissance), incluant les cas où l’identification est déficiente ou faible (instruments faibles). Notre analyse en petit échantillon founit plusieurs perspectives ainsi que des extensions des précédentes procédures. En effet, la caractérisation de la distribution de ces statistiques en petit échantillon permet la construction des tests de Monte Carlo exacts pour l’exogénéité même avec les erreurs non Gaussiens. Nous montrons que ces tests sont typiquement robustes aux intruments faibles (le niveau est contrôlé). De plus, nous fournissons une caractérisation de la puissance des tests, qui exhibe clairement les facteurs qui déterminent la puissance. Nous montrons que les tests n’ont pas de puissance lorsque tous les instruments sont faibles [similaire à Guggenberger(2008)]. Cependant, la puissance existe tant qu’au moins un seul instruments est fort. La conclusion de Guggenberger (2008) concerne le cas où tous les instruments sont faibles (un cas d’intérêt mineur en pratique). Notre théorie asymptotique sous les hypothèses affaiblies confirme la théorie en échantillon fini. Par ailleurs, nous présentons une analyse de Monte Carlo indiquant que: (1) l’estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires est plus efficace que celui des doubles moindres carrés lorsque les instruments sont faibles et l’endogenéité modérée [conclusion similaire à celle de Kiviet and Niemczyk (2007)]; (2) les estimateurs pré-test basés sur les tests d’exogenété ont une excellente performance par rapport aux doubles moindres carrés. Ceci suggère que la méthode des variables instrumentales ne devrait être appliquée que si l’on a la certitude d’avoir des instruments forts. Donc, les conclusions de Guggenberger (2008) sont mitigées et pourraient être trompeuses. Nous illustrons nos résultats théoriques à travers des expériences de simulation et deux applications empiriques: la relation entre le taux d’ouverture et la croissance économique et le problème bien connu du rendement à l’éducation. Le troisième essai étend le test d’exogénéité du type Wald proposé par Dufour (1987) aux cas où les erreurs de la régression ont une distribution non-normale. Nous proposons une nouvelle version du précédent test qui est valide même en présence d’erreurs non-Gaussiens. Contrairement aux procédures de test d’exogénéité usuelles (tests de Durbin-Wu-Hausman et de Rvankar- Hartley), le test de Wald permet de résoudre un problème courant dans les travaux empiriques qui consiste à tester l’exogénéité partielle d’un sous ensemble de variables. Nous proposons deux nouveaux estimateurs pré-test basés sur le test de Wald qui performent mieux (en terme d’erreur quadratique moyenne) que l’estimateur IV usuel lorsque les variables instrumentales sont faibles et l’endogénéité modérée. Nous montrons également que ce test peut servir de procédure de sélection de variables instrumentales. Nous illustrons les résultats théoriques par deux applications empiriques: le modèle bien connu d’équation du salaire [Angist et Krueger (1991, 1999)] et les rendements d’échelle [Nerlove (1963)]. Nos résultats suggèrent que l’éducation de la mère expliquerait le décrochage de son fils, que l’output est une variable endogène dans l’estimation du coût de la firme et que le prix du fuel en est un instrument valide pour l’output. Le quatrième essai résout deux problèmes très importants dans la littérature économétrique. D’abord, bien que le test de Wald initial ou étendu permette de construire les régions de confiance et de tester les restrictions linéaires sur les covariances, il suppose que les paramètres du modèle sont identifiés. Lorsque l’identification est faible (instruments faiblement corrélés avec la variable à instrumenter), ce test n’est en général plus valide. Cet essai développe une procédure d’inférence robuste à l’identification (instruments faibles) qui permet de construire des régions de confiance pour la matrices de covariances entre les erreurs de la régression et les variables explicatives (possiblement endogènes). Nous fournissons les expressions analytiques des régions de confiance et caractérisons les conditions nécessaires et suffisantes sous lesquelles ils sont bornés. La procédure proposée demeure valide même pour de petits échantillons et elle est aussi asymptotiquement robuste à l’hétéroscédasticité et l’autocorrélation des erreurs. Ensuite, les résultats sont utilisés pour développer les tests d’exogénéité partielle robustes à l’identification. Les simulations Monte Carlo indiquent que ces tests contrôlent le niveau et ont de la puissance même si les instruments sont faibles. Ceci nous permet de proposer une procédure valide de sélection de variables instrumentales même s’il y a un problème d’identification. La procédure de sélection des instruments est basée sur deux nouveaux estimateurs pré-test qui combinent l’estimateur IV usuel et les estimateurs IV partiels. Nos simulations montrent que: (1) tout comme l’estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires, les estimateurs IV partiels sont plus efficaces que l’estimateur IV usuel lorsque les instruments sont faibles et l’endogénéité modérée; (2) les estimateurs pré-test ont globalement une excellente performance comparés à l’estimateur IV usuel. Nous illustrons nos résultats théoriques par deux applications empiriques: la relation entre le taux d’ouverture et la croissance économique et le modèle de rendements à l’éducation. Dans la première application, les études antérieures ont conclu que les instruments n’étaient pas trop faibles [Dufour et Taamouti (2007)] alors qu’ils le sont fortement dans la seconde [Bound (1995), Doko et Dufour (2009)]. Conformément à nos résultats théoriques, nous trouvons les régions de confiance non bornées pour la covariance dans le cas où les instruments sont assez faibles.