A simple model for predicting soil temperature in snow-covered and seasonally frozen soil: model description and testing

Microbial processes in soil are moisture, nutrient and temperature dependent and, consequently, accurate calculation of soil temperature is important for modelling nitrogen processes. Microbial activity in soil occurs even at sub-zero temperatures so that, in northern latitudes, a method to calculate soil temperature under snow cover and in frozen soils is required. This paper describes a new and simple model to calculate daily values for soil temperature at various depths in both frozen and unfrozen soils. The model requires four parameters average soil thermal conductivity, specific beat capacity of soil, specific heat capacity due to freezing and thawing and an empirical snow parameter. Precipitation, air temperature and snow depth (measured or calculated) are needed as input variables. The proposed model was applied to five sites in different parts of Finland representing different climates and soil types. Observed soil temperatures at depths of 20 and 50 cm (September 1981-August 1990) were used for model calibration. The calibrated model was then tested using observed soil temperatures from September 1990 to August 2001. R-2-values of the calibration period varied between 0.87 and 0.96 at a depth of 20 cm and between 0.78 and 0.97 at 50 cm. R-2 -values of the testing period were between 0.87 and 0.94 at a depth of 20cm. and between 0.80 and 0.98 at 50cm. Thus, despite the simplifications made, the model was able to simulate soil temperature at these study sites. This simple model simulates soil temperature well in the uppermost soil layers where most of the nitrogen processes occur. The small number of parameters required means, that the model is suitable for addition to catchment scale models.

Estimating uncertainty in terrestrial critical loads and their exceedances at four sites in the UK

Critical loads are the basis for policies controlling emissions of acidic substances in Europe and elsewhere. They are assessed by several elaborate and ingenious models, each of which requires many parameters, and have to be applied on a spatially-distributed basis. Often the values of the input parameters are poorly known, calling into question the validity of the calculated critical loads. This paper attempts to quantify the uncertainty in the critical loads due to this "parameter uncertainty", using examples from the UK. Models used for calculating critical loads for deposition of acidity and nitrogen in forest and heathland ecosystems were tested at four contrasting sites. Uncertainty was assessed by Monte Carlo methods. Each input parameter or variable was assigned a value, range and distribution in an objective a fashion as possible. Each model was run 5000 times at each site using parameters sampled from these input distributions. Output distributions of various critical load parameters were calculated. The results were surprising. Confidence limits of the calculated critical loads were typically considerably narrower than those of most of the input parameters. This may be due to a "compensation of errors" mechanism. The range of possible critical load values at a given site is however rather wide, and the tails of the distributions are typically long. The deposition reductions required for a high level of confidence that the critical load is not exceeded are thus likely to be large. The implication for pollutant regulation is that requiring a high probability of non-exceedance is likely to carry high costs. The relative contribution of the input variables to critical load uncertainty varied from site to site: any input variable could be important, and thus it was not possible to identify variables as likely targets for research into narrowing uncertainties. Sites where a number of good measurements of input parameters were available had lower uncertainties, so use of in situ measurement could be a valuable way of reducing critical load uncertainty at particularly valuable or disputed sites. From a restricted number of samples, uncertainties in heathland critical loads appear comparable to those of coniferous forest, and nutrient nitrogen critical loads to those of acidity. It was important to include correlations between input variables in the Monte Carlo analysis, but choice of statistical distribution type was of lesser importance. Overall, the analysis provided objective support for the continued use of critical loads in policy development. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of three canopy interception models for a leafless mixed deciduous forest stand in the eastern United States

Canopy interception of incident precipitation is a critical component of the forest water balance during each of the four seasons. Models have been developed to predict precipitation interception from standard meteorological variables because of acknowledged difficulty in extrapolating direct measurements of interception loss from forest to forest. No known study has compared and validated canopy interception models for a leafless deciduous forest stand in the eastern United States. Interception measurements from an experimental plot in a leafless deciduous forest in northeastern Maryland (39°42'N, 75°5'W) for 11 rainstorms in winter and early spring 2004/05 were compared to predictions from three models. The Mulder model maintains a moist canopy between storms. The Gash model requires few input variables and is formulated for a sparse canopy. The WiMo model optimizes the canopy storage capacity for the maximum wind speed during each storm. All models showed marked underestimates and overestimates for individual storms when the measured ratio of interception to gross precipitation was far more or less, respectively, than the specified fraction of canopy cover. The models predicted the percentage of total gross precipitation (PG) intercepted to within the probable standard error (8.1%) of the measured value: the Mulder model overestimated the measured value by 0.1% of PG; the WiMo model underestimated by 0.6% of PG; and the Gash model underestimated by 1.1% of PG. The WiMo model’s advantage over the Gash model indicates that the canopy storage capacity increases logarithmically with the maximum wind speed. This study has demonstrated that dormant-season precipitation interception in a leafless deciduous forest may be satisfactorily predicted by existing canopy interception models.

A neurofuzzy network knowledge extraction and extended gram-Schmidt algorithm for model subspace decomposition

This paper introduces a new neurofuzzy model construction and parameter estimation algorithm from observed finite data sets, based on a Takagi and Sugeno (T-S) inference mechanism and a new extended Gram-Schmidt orthogonal decomposition algorithm, for the modeling of a priori unknown dynamical systems in the form of a set of fuzzy rules. The first contribution of the paper is the introduction of a one to one mapping between a fuzzy rule-base and a model matrix feature subspace using the T-S inference mechanism. This link enables the numerical properties associated with a rule-based matrix subspace, the relationships amongst these matrix subspaces, and the correlation between the output vector and a rule-base matrix subspace, to be investigated and extracted as rule-based knowledge to enhance model transparency. The matrix subspace spanned by a fuzzy rule is initially derived as the input regression matrix multiplied by a weighting matrix that consists of the corresponding fuzzy membership functions over the training data set. Model transparency is explored by the derivation of an equivalence between an A-optimality experimental design criterion of the weighting matrix and the average model output sensitivity to the fuzzy rule, so that rule-bases can be effectively measured by their identifiability via the A-optimality experimental design criterion. The A-optimality experimental design criterion of the weighting matrices of fuzzy rules is used to construct an initial model rule-base. An extended Gram-Schmidt algorithm is then developed to estimate the parameter vector for each rule. This new algorithm decomposes the model rule-bases via an orthogonal subspace decomposition approach, so as to enhance model transparency with the capability of interpreting the derived rule-base energy level. This new approach is computationally simpler than the conventional Gram-Schmidt algorithm for resolving high dimensional regression problems, whereby it is computationally desirable to decompose complex models into a few submodels rather than a single model with large number of input variables and the associated curse of dimensionality problem. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed new algorithm.

Discounted cash flow: accounting for uncertainty

Valuation is the process of estimating price. The methods used to determine value attempt to model the thought processes of the market and thus estimate price by reference to observed historic data. This can be done using either an explicit model, that models the worth calculation of the most likely bidder, or an implicit model, that that uses historic data suitably adjusted as a short cut to determine value by reference to previous similar sales. The former is generally referred to as the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model and the latter as the capitalisation (or All Risk Yield) model. However, regardless of the technique used, the valuation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable data available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the estimate of price. In a previous paper, we have considered the way in which uncertainty is allowed for in the capitalisation model in the UK. In this paper, we extend the analysis to look at the way in which uncertainty can be incorporated into the explicit DCF model. This is done by recognising that the input variables are uncertain and will have a probability distribution pertaining to each of them. Thus buy utilising a probability-based valuation model (using Crystal Ball) it is possible to incorporate uncertainty into the analysis and address the shortcomings of the current model. Although the capitalisation model is discussed, the paper concentrates upon the application of Crystal Ball to the Discounted Cash Flow approach.

Spatio-temporal surface soil heat flux estimates from satellite data: results for the AMMA experiment at the Fakara (Niger) supersite

This paper describes a method that employs Earth Observation (EO) data to calculate spatiotemporal estimates of soil heat flux, G, using a physically-based method (the Analytical Method). The method involves a harmonic analysis of land surface temperature (LST) data. It also requires an estimate of near-surface soil thermal inertia; this property depends on soil textural composition and varies as a function of soil moisture content. The EO data needed to drive the model equations, and the ground-based data required to provide verification of the method, were obtained over the Fakara domain within the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) program. LST estimates (3 km × 3 km, one image 15 min−1) were derived from MSG-SEVIRI data. Soil moisture estimates were obtained from ENVISAT-ASAR data, while estimates of leaf area index, LAI, (to calculate the effect of the canopy on G, largely due to radiation extinction) were obtained from SPOT-HRV images. The variation of these variables over the Fakara domain, and implications for values of G derived from them, were discussed. Results showed that this method provides reliable large-scale spatiotemporal estimates of G. Variations in G could largely be explained by the variability in the model input variables. Furthermore, it was shown that this method is relatively insensitive to model parameters related to the vegetation or soil texture. However, the strong sensitivity of thermal inertia to soil moisture content at low values of relative saturation (<0.2) means that in arid or semi-arid climates accurate estimates of surface soil moisture content are of utmost importance, if reliable estimates of G are to be obtained. This method has the potential to improve large-scale evaporation estimates, to aid land surface model prediction and to advance research that aims to explain failure in energy balance closure of meteorological field studies.

Short communication: estimation of the financial benefit of using Jersey milk at different inclusion rates for Cheddar cheese production using partial budgeting

Partial budgeting was used to estimate the net benefit of blending Jersey milk in Holstein-Friesian milk for Cheddar cheese production. Jersey milk increases Cheddar cheese yield. However, the cost of Jersey milk is also higher; thus, determining the balance of profitability is necessary, including consideration of seasonal effects. Input variables were based on a pilot plant experiment run from 2012 to 2013 and industry milk and cheese prices during this period. When Jersey milk was used at an increasing rate with Holstein-Friesian milk (25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk), it resulted in an increase of average net profit of 3.41, 6.44, 8.57, and 11.18 pence per kilogram of milk, respectively, and this additional profit was constant throughout the year. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential input on additional profit was cheese yield, whereas cheese price and milk price had a small effect. The minimum increase in yield, which was necessary for the use of Jersey milk to be profitable, was 2.63, 7.28, 9.95, and 12.37% at 25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk, respectively. Including Jersey milk did not affect the quantity of whey butter and powder produced. Althoug further research is needed to ascertain the amount of additional profit that would be found on a commercial scale, the results indicate that using Jersey milk for Cheddar cheese making would lead to an improvement in profit for the cheese makers, especially at higher inclusion rates.

ANFIS BASED MODELS FOR ACCESSING QUALITY OF WIKIPEDIA ARTICLES

Wikipedia is a free, web-based, collaborative, multilingual encyclopedia project supported by the non-profit Wikimedia Foundation. Due to the free nature of Wikipedia and allowing open access to everyone to edit articles the quality of articles may be affected. As all people don’t have equal level of knowledge and also different people have different opinions about a topic so there may be difference between the contributions made by different authors. To overcome this situation it is very important to classify the articles so that the articles of good quality can be separated from the poor quality articles and should be removed from the database. The aim of this study is to classify the articles of Wikipedia into two classes class 0 (poor quality) and class 1(good quality) using the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and data mining techniques. Two ANFIS are built using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox [1] available in Matlab. The first ANFIS is based on the rules obtained from J48 classifier in WEKA while the other one was built by using the expert’s knowledge. The data used for this research work contains 226 article’s records taken from the German version of Wikipedia. The dataset consists of 19 inputs and one output. The data was preprocessed to remove any similar attributes. The input variables are related to the editors, contributors, length of articles and the lifecycle of articles. In the end analysis of different methods implemented in this research is made to analyze the performance of each classification method used.

Otimização do processo de síntese do aluminato de cobalto via método de polimerização de complexos (MPC) através do planejamento fatorial fracionado

In the ceramics industry are becoming more predominantly inorganic nature pigments. Studies in this area allow you to develop pigments with more advanced properties and qualities to be used in the industrial context. Studies on synthesis and characterization of cobalt aluminate has been widely researched, cobalt aluminate behavior at different temperatures of calcinations, highlighting especially the temperatures of 700, 800 and 900° C that served as a basis in the development of this study, using the method of polymerization of complex (CPM), economic, and this method applied in ceramic pigment synthesis. The procedure was developed from a fractional factorial design 2 (5-2) in order to optimize the process of realization of the cobalt aluminate (CoAl2O4), having as response surfaces the batch analysis data of Uv-vis spectroscopy conducted from the statistic software 7.0, for this were chosen five factors as input variables: citric acid (stoichiometric manner), puff or pyrolysis time (h), temperature (° C), and calcinations (° C/min), at levels determined for this study. By applying statistics in the process of obtaining the CoAl2O4 is possible the study of these factors and which may have greater influence in getting the synthesis. The pigments characterized TG/DSC analyses, and x-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscope (SEM/EDS) in order to establish the structural and morphological aspects of pigment CoAl2O4, among the factors studied it were found to statically with increasing calcinations temperature 700°< 800 <900 °C, the bands of Uv-vis decrease with increasing intensity of absorbance and that with increasing time of puff or pyrolysis (h) there is an increase in bands of Uv-vis proportionally, the generated model set for the conditions proposed in this study because the coefficient of determination can explain about 99.9% of the variance (R²), response surfaces generated were satisfactory, so it s possible applicability in the ceramics industry of pigments

Controle de atitude e altitude para um veículo aéreo não tripulado do tipo quadrirrotor

A Quadrotor is an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) equipped with four rotors distributed on a simple mechanical "X"form structure. The aim of this work is to build and stabilize a Quadrotor aircraft in the roll, pitch and yaw angles at a certain altitude. The stabilization control approach is based on a transformation in the input variables in order to perform a decoupled control. The proposed strategy is based on breaking the control problem into two hierarchical levels: A lower level, object of this work, maintains the desired altitude an angles of the vehicle while the higher level establishes appropriate references to the lower level, performing the desired movements. A hardware and software architecture was specially developed and implemented for an experimental prototype used to test and validate the proposed control approach

Otimização de superfícies seletivas de frequência com elementos pré-fractais utilizando rede neural MLP e algoritmos de busca populacional

This thesis describes design methodologies for frequency selective surfaces (FSSs) composed of periodic arrays of pre-fractals metallic patches on single-layer dielectrics (FR4, RT/duroid). Shapes presented by Sierpinski island and T fractal geometries are exploited to the simple design of efficient band-stop spatial filters with applications in the range of microwaves. Initial results are discussed in terms of the electromagnetic effect resulting from the variation of parameters such as, fractal iteration number (or fractal level), fractal iteration factor, and periodicity of FSS, depending on the used pre-fractal element (Sierpinski island or T fractal). The transmission properties of these proposed periodic arrays are investigated through simulations performed by Ansoft DesignerTM and Ansoft HFSSTM commercial softwares that run full-wave methods. To validate the employed methodology, FSS prototypes are selected for fabrication and measurement. The obtained results point to interesting features for FSS spatial filters: compactness, with high values of frequency compression factor; as well as stable frequency responses at oblique incidence of plane waves. This thesis also approaches, as it main focus, the application of an alternative electromagnetic (EM) optimization technique for analysis and synthesis of FSSs with fractal motifs. In application examples of this technique, Vicsek and Sierpinski pre-fractal elements are used in the optimal design of FSS structures. Based on computational intelligence tools, the proposed technique overcomes the high computational cost associated to the full-wave parametric analyzes. To this end, fast and accurate multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network models are developed using different parameters as design input variables. These neural network models aim to calculate the cost function in the iterations of population-based search algorithms. Continuous genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and bees algorithm (BA) are used for FSSs optimization with specific resonant frequency and bandwidth. The performance of these algorithms is compared in terms of computational cost and numerical convergence. Consistent results can be verified by the excellent agreement obtained between simulations and measurements related to FSS prototypes built with a given fractal iteration

Controle fuzzy espacialmente diferenciado para um sistema de irrigação

Traditional irrigation projects do not locally determine the water availability in the soil. Then, irregular irrigation cycles may occur: some with insufficient amount that leads to water deficit, other with excessive watering that causes lack of oxygen in plants. Due to the nonlinear nature of this problem and the multivariable context of irrigation processes, fuzzy logic is suggested to replace commercial ON-OFF irrigation system with predefined timing. Other limitation of commercial solutions is that irrigation processes either consider the different watering needs throughout plant growth cycles or the climate changes. In order to fulfill location based agricultural needs, it is indicated to monitor environmental data using wireless sensors connected to an intelligent control system. This is more evident in applications as precision agriculture. This work presents the theoretical and experimental development of a fuzzy system to implement a spatially differentiated control of an irrigation system, based on soil moisture measurement with wireless sensor nodes. The control system architecture is modular: a fuzzy supervisor determines the soil moisture set point of each sensor node area (according to the soil-plant set) and another fuzzy system, embedded in the sensor node, does the local control and actuates in the irrigation system. The fuzzy control system was simulated with SIMULINK® programming tool and was experimentally built embedded in mobile device SunSPOTTM operating in ZigBee. Controller models were designed and evaluated in different combinations of input variables and inference rules base

Efeito da adição de colesterol e ecdisona na produção in vitro do baculovírus spodoptera frugiperda MNPV

Among the pests that attack corn crop in Brazil, there is Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith, 1797) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), known as fall armyworm, which is the major corn pest. Due to genetic instability during serial passage of baculoviruses in insect cell culture, the viral bioinseticides in vitro production development is the greatest challenge for mass production of this bioproduct. Successive passages of virus using extracellular viruses (BVs), necessary during viral bioinseticides production scaling up, leads to the appearance of aberrant forms of virus, a process so called as "passage effect ". The main consequence of passage effect is the production of occlusion bodies (OB) decrease, preventing its production using in vitro process. In this study, it was carried out a serial passage of baculovirus Spodoptera frugiperda multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus, isolate 18, using Sf21 cells. A decrease in the production of occlusion bodies from 170 to 92 in the third to fourth passage was observed. A factorial experimental design (22) was employed to verify the influence of two input variables, concentration of the hormone 20 - hydroxyecdysone (CH) and cholesterol (CC) on the values of response variables (volumetric and the specific OB production) of the process, seeking to define the optimum operating ranges trying to reverse or minimize the passage effect. The result indicated a negative influence of the cholesterol addition and positive effect in the hormone supplementation which the optimum range found for the concentrations studied were 8 to 10μg/mL and 5 to 6.5 mg / mL, for cholesterol and hormone concentrations respectively. New experiments were performed with addition of hormone and cholesterol in order to check the influence of these additives on the OB production independently. While the best result obtained from the factorial experiment was 9.4 x 107 OB/mL and 128.4 specific OB/cell, with the addition of only 6μg/mL 20-hydroxyecdysone these concentrations increased to 1.9 x 108 OB/mL and 182.9 OB/cell for volumetric and specific OB production, respectively. This result confirms that the addition of the hormone 20-hydroxyecdysone enhances the SfMNPV in vitro production process performance using Sf21 cells

Efeito de variáveis de processo no tempo de fermentação e na concentração das dicetonas vicinais totais

Among the main challenges in the beer industrial production is the market supply at the lowest cost and high quality, in order to ensure the expectations of customers and. consumers The beer fermentation stage represents approximately 70% of the whole time necessary to its production, having a obligatoriness of strict process controls to avoid becoming bottleneck in beer production. This stage is responsible for the formation of a series of subproducts, which are responsible for the composition of aroma/bouquet existing in beer and some of these subproducts, if produced in larger quantities, they will confer unpleasant taste and odor to the final product. Among the subproducts formed during the fermentation stage, total vicinal diketones is the main component, since it is limiting for product transfusion to the subsequent steps, besides having a low perception threshold by the consumer and giving undesirable taste and odor. Due to the instability of main raw materials quality and also process controls during fermentation, the development of alternative forms of beer production without impacting on total fermentation time and final product quality is a great challenge to breweries. In this work, a prior acidification of the pasty yeast was carried out, utilizing for that phosphoric acid, food grade, reducing yeast pH of about 5.30 to 2.20 and altering its characteristic from flocculent to pulverulent during beer fermentation. An increase of six times was observed in amount of yeast cells in suspension in the second fermentation stage regarding to fermentations by yeast with no prior acidification. With alteration on two input variables, temperature curve and cell multiplication, which goal was to minimize the maximum values for diketones detected in the fermenter tank, a reduction was obtained from peak of formed diacetyl and consequently contributed to reduction in fermentation time and total process time. Several experiments were performed with those process changes in order to verify the influence on the total fermentation time and total vicinal diketones concentration at the end of fermentation. This experiment reached as the best production result a total fermentation time of 151 hours and total vicinal diketone concentration of 0.08 ppm. The mass of yeast in suspension in the second phase of fermentation increased from 2.45 x 106 to 16.38 x 106 cells/mL of yeast, which fact is key to a greater efficiency in reducing total vicinal diketones existing in the medium, confirming that the prior yeast acidification, as well as the control of temperature and yeast cell multiplication in fermentative process enhances the performance of diketones reduction and consequently reduce the total fermentation time with diketones concentration below the expected value (Max: 0.10 ppm)

Recuperação e purificação de quitosanases usando adsorção em leito expandido com streamline DEAE com modelagem e simulação usando redes neurais

Expanded Bed Adsorption (EBA) is an integrative process that combines concepts of chromatography and fluidization of solids. The many parameters involved and their synergistic effects complicate the optimization of the process. Fortunately, some mathematical tools have been developed in order to guide the investigation of the EBA system. In this work the application of experimental design, phenomenological modeling and artificial neural networks (ANN) in understanding chitosanases adsorption on ion exchange resin Streamline® DEAE have been investigated. The strain Paenibacillus ehimensis NRRL B-23118 was used for chitosanase production. EBA experiments were carried out using a column of 2.6 cm inner diameter with 30.0 cm in height that was coupled to a peristaltic pump. At the bottom of the column there was a distributor of glass beads having a height of 3.0 cm. Assays for residence time distribution (RTD) revelead a high degree of mixing, however, the Richardson-Zaki coefficients showed that the column was on the threshold of stability. Isotherm models fitted the adsorption equilibrium data in the presence of lyotropic salts. The results of experiment design indicated that the ionic strength and superficial velocity are important to the recovery and purity of chitosanases. The molecular mass of the two chitosanases were approximately 23 kDa and 52 kDa as estimated by SDS-PAGE. The phenomenological modeling was aimed to describe the operations in batch and column chromatography. The simulations were performed in Microsoft Visual Studio. The kinetic rate constant model set to kinetic curves efficiently under conditions of initial enzyme activity 0.232, 0.142 e 0.079 UA/mL. The simulated breakthrough curves showed some differences with experimental data, especially regarding the slope. Sensitivity tests of the model on the surface velocity, axial dispersion and initial concentration showed agreement with the literature. The neural network was constructed in MATLAB and Neural Network Toolbox. The cross-validation was used to improve the ability of generalization. The parameters of ANN were improved to obtain the settings 6-6 (enzyme activity) and 9-6 (total protein), as well as tansig transfer function and Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm. The neural Carlos Eduardo de Araújo Padilha dezembro/2013 9 networks simulations, including all the steps of cycle, showed good agreement with experimental data, with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.974. The effects of input variables on profiles of the stages of loading, washing and elution were consistent with the literature