Financial fragility, trade credit and contagion effects during the crisis: a spatial econometric approach to firm-level data

The number of distressed manufacturing firms increased sharply during recessionary phase 2009-13. Financial indebtness traditionally plays a key role in assessing firm solvency but contagion effects that originate from the supply chain are usually neglected in literature. Firm interconnections, captured via the trade credit channel, represent a primary vehicle of individual shocks’ propagation, especially during an economic downturn, when liquidity tensions arise. A representative sample of 11,920 Italian manufacturing firms is considered to model a two-step econometric design, where chain reactions in terms of trade credit accumulation (i.e. default of payments to suppliers) are primarily analyzed by resorting to a spatial autoregressive approach (SAR). Spatial interactions are modeled based on a unique dataset of firm-to-firm transactions registered before the outbreak of the crisis. The second step in instead a binary outcome model where trade credit chains are considered together with data on the bank-firm relationship to assess determinants of distress likelihoods in 2009-13. Results show that outstanding trade debt is affected by the liquidity position of a firm and by positive spatial effects. Trade credit chain reactions are found to exert, in turn, a positive impact on distress likelihoods during the crisis. The latter effect is comparable in magnitude to the one exerted by individual financial rigidity, and stresses the importance to include complex interactions between firms in the analysis of the solvency behavior.

Bone fragility as a possible complication of chronic kidney disease in early stages

Trabalho Final do Curso de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

The fragility of two monetary regimes: The European Monetary System and the Eurozone. National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 243, October 2013

The purpose of these working papers is to promote the circulation of research results (Research Series) and analytical studies (Documents Series) made within the National Bank of Belgium or presented by external economists in seminars, conferences and conventions organised by the Bank. The aim is therefore to provide a platform for discussion. The opinions expressed are strictly those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bank of Belgium.

ECB Policy and Eurozone Fragility: Was De Grauwe Right? CEPS Working Document No. 397, June 2014

Paul De Grauwe’s fragility hypothesis states that member countries of a monetary union such as the eurozone are highly vulnerable to a self-fulfilling mechanism by which the efforts of investors to avoid losses from default can end up triggering the very default they fear. The authors test this hypothesis by applying an eclectic methodology to a time window around Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” (to keep the eurozone on firm footing) pledge on 26 July 2012. This pledge was soon followed by the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme (the prospective and conditional purchase by the European Central Bank of sovereign bonds of eurozone countries having difficulty issuing debt). The principal components of eurozone credit default swap spreads validate this choice of time frame. An event study reveals significant pre announcement contagion emanating from Spain to Italy, Belgium, France and Austria. Furthermore, time-series regression confirms frequent clusters of large shocks affecting the credit default swap spreads of the four eurozone countries but solely during the pre-announcement period. The findings of this report support the fragility hypothesis for the eurozone and endorse the Outright Monetary Transactions programme.

Hereditary fragility of bone (fragilitas osseus, osteopsathyrosis)

Mode of access: Internet.

Glass fragility and atomic ordering on the intermediate and extended range

The relation between the fragility of glass-forming systems, a parameter which describes many of their key physical characteristics, and atomic scale structure is investigated by using neutron diffraction to measure the topological and chemical ordering for germania, or GeO2, which is an archetypal strong glass former. We find that the ordering for this and other tetrahedral network-forming glasses at distances greater than the nearest neighbor can be rationalized in terms of an interplay between the relative importance of two length scales. One of these is associated with an intermediate range, the other with an extended range and, with increasing glass fragility, it is the extended range ordering which dominates.

State fragility and international development co-operation

Over the past few years addressing state fragility in the third world has become an important priority in international development cooperation. However, it seems that the international donor community has so far not been able to develop adequate instruments for dealing with the problems posed by state failure. We see two reasons for this: (i) there is growing recognition within the donor community that the lack of absorptive capacity, or bad economic policies in the partner country can actually make aid counterproductive, even harmful; and (ii) it is very difficult to manage effective development cooperation with weak governments. Channelling aid through NGOs, or giving limited aid in the form of capacity-building is clearly not sufficient to solve the problems fragile states face.

State Fragility and International Development Cooperation

Over the past few years addressing state fragility in the third world has become an important priority in international development cooperation. However, it seems that the international donor community has so far not been able to develop adequate instruments for dealing with the problems posed by state failure. We see two reasons for this: (i) there is growing recognition within the donor community that the lack of absorptive capacity, or bad economic policies in the partner country can actually make aid counterproductive, even harmful; and (ii) it is very difficult to manage effective development cooperation with weak governments. Channelling aid through NGOs, or giving limited aid in the form of capacity-building is clearly not sufficient to solve the problems fragile states face.

Use of GLP-1 mimetic in type 2 diabetes mellitus: is it the end of fragility fractures?

International audience

Changes in Hematological Parameters and Erythrocyte Osmotic Fragility in Lame and Aged Horses Administered with Resveratrol Supplement

The study was aimed at evaluating the changes in haematological parameters and erythrocyte osmotic fragility in lame and aged horses administered with resveratrol supplement (Equithrive joint®). A total of 16 horses of both sexes, aged 18 ± 0.65 and showing lameness grade 3 were used for the study. The horses weighed 350-450 kg and comprised 8 horses which were administered with resveratrol supplement for 4 weeks and 8 others, which served as controls and given only Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeast strain used as carrier in the supplement. Blood samples were collected from each horse before supplementation and at weekly intervals for 4 weeks of the experiment. Haematological parameters and erythrocyte osmotic fragility were determined by standard methods. Equithrive joint® increased significantly (P ˂ 0.05) packed cell volume, haemoglobin concentration and erythrocyte counts in the treated horses while total leucocyte, neutrophil and eosinophil counts decreased significantly (P ˂ 0.05) in the treated horses compared with the untreated horses. Erythrocyte osmotic fragility test showed decreased haemolysis in the treated horses. The result indicated that equithrive joint® a potent antioxidant and anti-inflammatory agent maintained the membrane integrity of red blood cells and may be of value in aiding horses move with ease during ageing.

Aid, growth, policies and fragility

The impact of aid on per capita income growth has been a particularly controversial topic among researchers and policy-makers alike. Most studies agree that growth would be lower in the absence of aid. This is evident from comprehensive literature surveys of aid and growth studies, including Hansen and Tarp (2000), Morrissey (2001), McGillivray et al. (2006), Mekasha and Tarp (2011) and Clemens et al. (2012). There is no such agreement in this literature regarding what might be described as the contingencies on which the impact of aid on growth is partially dependent. Debate over this topic is intensive and a failure to reach agreement over it is arguably the principal failing of the aid–growth literature owing to the potential guidance such agreement could provide for the selection of interventions aimed at improving aid effectiveness. Debate on aid–growth contingencies commenced after publication of the pioneering econometric investigation of Burnside and Dollar (1997, 2000). Burnside and Dollar multiplicatively interacted aid with a measure of policy, and found that aid only had a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal, monetary, and trade policies. Subsequent studies have sought to test the robustness of the Burnside and Dollar result, test for the relevance of different contingencies, or both. No study has been able to replicate the Burnside and Dollar result, and as such there is widespread concern in the research community over its robustness.

Age-Dependent Fragility and Life-Cycle Cost Analysis of Timber and Steel Distribution Poles Subjected to Hurricanes

Power distribution systems are susceptible to extreme damage from natural hazards especially hurricanes. Hurricane winds can knock down distribution poles thereby causing damage to the system and power outages which can result in millions of dollars in lost revenue and restoration costs. Timber has been the dominant material used to support overhead lines in distribution systems. Recently however, utility companies have been searching for a cost-effective alternative to timber poles due to environmental concerns, durability, high cost of maintenance and need for improved aesthetics. Steel has emerged as a viable alternative to timber due to its advantages such as relatively lower maintenance cost, light weight, consistent performance, and invulnerability to wood-pecker attacks. Both timber and steel poles are prone to deterioration over time due to decay in the timber and corrosion of the steel. This research proposes a framework for conducting fragility analysis of timber and steel poles subjected to hurricane winds considering deterioration of the poles over time. Monte Carlo simulation was used to develop the fragility curves considering uncertainties in strength, geometry and wind loads. A framework for life-cycle cost analysis is also proposed to compare the steel and timber poles. The results show that steel poles can have superior reliability and lower life-cycle cost compared to timber poles, which makes them suitable substitutes.