The Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programmes on Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Euro Area. Bruges European Economic Research Papers 35/2015

This paper estimates the immediate impact of the European Central Bank’s asset purchase programmes on sovereign bond spreads in the euro area between 2008 and 2015 using a country-by-country GARCH model. The baseline estimates are rigorously diagnosed for misspecification and subjected to a wide range of sensitivity tests. Among others, changes in the dependent variable, the independent variables and the number of (G)ARCH terms are tested. Moreover, the model is applied to subsamples and dynamic conditional correlations are analyzed to estimate the effects of the asset purchases on the contagion of spread movements. Generally, it is found that the asset purchase programmes triggered an reduction of sovereign bond spreads. More specifically, the Securities Markets Programme (SMP) had the most significant immediate effects on sovereign bond spreads across the euro area. The announcements related to the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme also yielded substantial spread compression in the periphery. In contrast to that, the most recent Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) announced in January 2015 and implemented since March 2015 had no significant immediate effects on sovereign bond spreads, except for Irish spreads. Hence, immediate effects seem to be dependent upon the size of the programme, the extent to which it targets distressed sovereigns and the way in which it is communicated.

Growth and Euro Area Stability: The Double Dividend of a Deepened European Single Market for Services. Bertelsmann Stiftung Background Note 26 June 2015

The European Commission’s recent single market initiatives have a second important benefit beyond growth that is often overlooked: Deepening the Single Market for goods and services can also reduce imbalances in the euro area and limit its vulnerability to crises. A further integration of the Single Market thus provides a double dividend of growth and stability. This is the main issue addressed in this background note.

A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area

We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Admissible monetary aggregates for the Euro area

We use the Fleissig and Whitney (2003) weak separability test to determine admissible levels of monetary aggregation for the Euro area. We find that the Euro area monetary assets in M2 and M3 are weakly separable and construct admissible Divisia monetary aggregates for these assets. We evaluate the Divisia aggregates as indicator variables, building on Nelson (2002), Reimers (2002), and Stracca (2004). Specifically, we show that real growth of the admissible Divisia aggregates enter the Euro area IS curve positively and significantly for the period from 1980 to 2005. Out of sample, we show that Divisia M2 and M3 appear to contain useful information for forecasting Euro area inflation.

Admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area

We use the Fleissig and Whitney [Fleissig, A.R., Whitney, G.A., 2003. A new PC-based test for Varian's weak separability conditions. Journal of Business and Economics Statistics 21 (1), 133–144] weak separability test to determine admissible levels of monetary aggregation for the Euro area. We find that the Euro area monetary assets in M2 and M3 are weakly separable and construct admissible Divisia monetary aggregates for these assets. We show that real growth of the admissible Divisia aggregates enters the Euro area IS curve positively and significantly for the period from 1980 to 2005. Out of sample, we show that Divisia M2 and M3 appear to contain useful information for forecasting Euro area inflation.

A comprehensive approach to the euro-area debt crisis

The euro area‘s sovereign debt crisis continues though significant steps have been taken to resolve it. This paper proposes a comprehensive solution to the crisis based on three pillars: a plan to restore banking sector soundness in the whole euro area, a resolution of sovereign debt crisis -including a revision of EU assistance facilities and a reduction of the Greek public debt- and a strategy to foster growth and competitiveness. The paper provides novel estimates and analysis focusing on the current situation of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.

The Case for Reforming Euro Area Entry Criteria

The global economic and financial crisis has raised further concerns about the euro-entry criteria, in addition to other factors, such as the effective tightening of the criteria due to the enlargement of the EU from 12 to 27 members, the highly unfavourable property of business cycle dependence, the internal inconsistency of the criteria due to the structural price level convergence of Central and Eastern European countries, and the continuous violation of the criteria by euro-area members. The interest rate criterion became a highly volatile measure. Many US metropolitan areas would fail to qualify to be members of the US monetary union by applying the currently used inflation criterion to the US. It is time to reform the criteria and to strengthen their economic rationale within the legal framework of the EU treaty. A good solution would be to relate all criteria to the average of the euro area and simultaneously to extend the compliance period from the currently considered one year to a longer period.

Az euróövezet bővítése és euróbevezetési stratégiák (Euro-area enlargement and euro adoption strategies)

Tanulmányunk azokat a kockázatokat és kihívásokat vizsgálja, amelyekkel az új EU tagállamok szembesülnek az euróhoz vezető úton, valamint elemzi az euró bevezetésével és a bevezetés időzítésével kapcsolatos stratégiákat is. Megvizsgáljuk a reál- és nominálkonvergencia kapcsolatát az euróövezetbe csatlakozás szemszögéből. Véleményünk szerint a gazdaság egy főre jutó jövedelemben mért kezdeti fejlettségi szintje, valamint a reálkonvergencia sebessége kihatnak a követendő stratégiákra és a belépés időzítésére. Minél alacsonyabb ugyanis egy ország egy főre jutó jövedelme, annál nagyobb az árszínvonalbeli lemaradása (amit be kell hoznia), és az új tagok jelenlegi helyzetét figyelembe véve annál nagyobb a veszélye annak, hogy a hitelek növekedése túlzottá, a gazdaság túlfűtötté válik. Úgy gondoljuk, hogy az inflációkövetés lebegő árfolyam mellett megfelelőbb az árszínvonal felzárkózási folyamatának kezelésére, mint valamilyen merev árfolyamrögzítés. Elemezzük a maastrichti kritériumokat az új EU-tagállamok gazdasági jellemzőinek szempontjából, és az inflációs kritérium módosítását javasoljuk, amely jelenlegi formájában elvesztette közgazdasági értelmét. JEL kód: E31, E52, E60, F30. /===/ This paper commissioned by DG ECFIN from the EU Commission as part of the EMU@10 project and published in Hungarian by the permission of the EU Commission. The origi-nal English version is available at http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/ publication_summary12103_en.htm. The paper discusses the risks and challenges faced by new members on the road to the euro and the strategies and timing of euro adoption. It investigates the real/nominal convergence nexus from the perspective of euro-area entry, arguing that the initial level of economic development, as measured by per capita income, and the speed of real convergence have a bearing on the strategies to follow and the timing of entry into the euro area, for the lower per capita income is, the larger is the price-level gap to close and the greater the danger of credit booms and overheating. It is argued argue that inflation targeting with floating rates is better suited than hard pegs to managing the price-level catch-up process. A suggestion is made for modifying the Maastricht inflation criterion, which as currently defined has lost its economic logic.

Debt Restructuring in the Euro Area: a Necessary but Manageable Evil?

There are two possible responses to the Greek debt crisis: ‘Plan A’, continued official lending, for as long as needed, with possible voluntary private sector involvement, and ‘Plan B’, coercive preemptive or post-default restructuring with significant face value reduction in privately-held debt. Both options have risks, but it is necessary to move to Plan B sooner or later. The impact on Greece could be mitigated by foreign bank ownership and proper liquidity support measures. The direct spillover impact on the rest of the euro area seems small. But there is the risk of contagion, which is a serious concern. There is a cautious case for delaying somewhat Plan B in order to prepare for it.

The Euro Area's Tightrope Walk: Debt and Competitiveness in Italy and Spain

- Competitiveness adjustment in struggling southern euro-area members requires persistently lower inflation than in major trading partners, but low inflation worsens public debt sustainability. When average euro-area inflation undershoots the two percent target, the conflict between intra-euro relative price adjustment and debt sustainability is more severe. - In our baseline scenario, the projected public debt ratio reduction in Italy and Spain is too slow and does not meet the European fiscal rule. Debt projections are very sensitive to underlying assumptions and even small negative deviations from GDP growth, inflation and budget surplus assumptions can easily result in a runaway debt trajectory. - The case for a greater than five percent of GDP primary budget surplus is very weak. Beyond vitally important structural reforms, the top priority is to ensure that euro-area inflation does not undershoot the two percent target, which requires national policy actions and more accommodative monetary policy. The latter would weaken the euro exchange rate, thereby facilitating further intra-euro adjustment. More effective policies are needed to foster growth. But if all else fails, the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions could reduce borrowing costs.

Should non-euro area countries join the single supervisory mechanism?

Highlights - Irrespective of the euro crisis, a European banking union makes sense, including for non-euro area countries, because of the extent of European Union financial integration. The Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) is the first element of the banking union. - From the point of view of non-euro countries, the draft SSM regulation as amended by the EU Council includes strong safeguards relating to decision-making, accountability, attention to financial stability in small countries and the applicability of national macro-prudential measures. Non-euro countries will also have the right to leave the SSM and thereby exempt themselves from a supervisory decision. - The SSM by itself cannot bring the full benefits of the banking union, but would foster financial integration, improve the supervision of cross-border banks, ensure greater consistency of supervisory practices, increase the quality of supervision, avoid competitive distortions and provide ample supervisory information. - While the decision to join the SSM is made difficult by the uncertainty about other elements of the banking union, including the possible burden sharing, we conclude that non-euro EU members should stand ready to join the SSM and be prepared for the negotiations of the other elements of the banking union.

Essays on firm behaviour in the euro area

This thesis examines firms' real decisions using a large panel of unquoted euro area firms over the period 2003-2011. To this end, this thesis is composed of five chapters in which three are the main empirical chapters. They assess the dimensions of firm behaviour across different specifications. Each of these chapters provide a detailed discussion on the contribution, theoretical and empirical background as well as the panel data techniques which are implemented. Chapter 1 describes the introduction and outline of the thesis. Chapter 2 presents an empirical analysis on the link between financial pressure and firms' employment level. In this set-up, it is explored the strength of financial pressure during the financial crisis. It is also tested whether this effect has a different impact for financially constrained and unconstrained firms in the periphery and non-periphery regions. The results of this chapter denote that financial pressure exerts a negative impact on firms' employment decisions and that this effect is stronger during the crisis for financially constrained firms in the periphery. Chapter 3 analyses the cash policies of private and public firms. Controlling for firm size and other standard variables in the literature of cash holdings, empirical findings suggest that private firms hold higher cash reserves than their public counterparts indicating a greater precautionary demand for cash by the former. The relative difference between these two type of firms decreases (increases) the higher (lower) is the the level of financial pressure. The findings are robust to various model specifications and over different sub-samples. Overall, this chapter shows the relevance of firms' size. Taken together, the findings of Chapter 3 are in line with the early literature on cash holdings and contradict the recent studies, which find that the precautionary motive to hold cash is less pronounced for private firms than for public ones. Chapter 4 undertakes an investigation on the relation between firms' stocks of inventories and trade credit (i.e. extended and taken) whilst controlling for the firms' size, the characteristics of the goods transacted, the recent financial crisis and the development of the banking system. The main findings provide evidence of a trade-off between trade credit extended and firms' stock of inventories. In other words, firms' prefer to extend credit in the form of stocks to their financially constrained customers to avoid holdings costly inventories and to increase their sales levels. The provision of trade credit by the firms also depends on the characteristics of the goods transacted. This impact is stronger during the crisis. Larger and liquid banking systems reduce the trade-off between the volume of stocks of inventories and the amount sold on credit. Trade credit taken is not affected by firms' stock of inventories. Chapter 5 presents the conclusions of the thesis. It provides the main contributions, implications and future research of each empirical chapter.

The impact of SEPA in credit transfer payments: Evidence from the euro area

This paper analyses the effect of the implementation process of the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) project on credit transfer payments in euro area countries during the period between 2008 and 2013.

Does the euro dominate Central and Eastern European money markets?

The so-called German Dominance Hypothesis (GDH) claimed that Bundesbank policies were transmitted into other European Monetary System (EMS) interest rates during the pre-euro era. We reformulate this hypothesis for the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries that are on the verge of accessing the eurozone. We test this \Euro Dominance Hypothesis (EDH)" in a novel way using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach that combines country-speci c error correction models in a global system. We nd that euro area monetary policies are transmitted into CEE interest rates which provides evidence for monetary integration between the eurozone and CEE countries. Our framework also allows for introducing global monetary shocks to provide empirical evidence regarding the e ects of the recent nancial crisis on monetary integration in Europe.

Separated by a common currency? Evidence from the Euro changeover

We study the price convergence of goods and services in the euro area in 2001-2002. To measure the degree of convergence, we compare the prices of around 220 items in 32 European cities. The width of the border is the price di¤erence attributed to the fact that the two cities are in different countries. We find that the 2001 European borders are negative, which suggests that the markets were very integrated before the euro changeover. Moreover, we do not identify an integration effect attributable to the introduction of the euro. We then explore the determinants of the European borders. We find that different languages, wealth and population differences tend to split the markets. Historical inflation, though, tends to lead to price convergence.