Earnings management and audit adjustments: An empirical study of IBEX 35 constituents

Doubts about the reliability of a company's qualitative financial disclosure increase market participant expectations from the auditor's report. The auditing process is supposed to serve as a monitoring device that reduces management incentives to manipulate reported earnings. Empirical research confirms that it could be an efficient device under some circumstancesand recognizes that our estimates of the informativeness of audit reports are unavoidably biased (e.g., because of a client's anticipation of the auditing process). This empirical study supports the significant role of auditors in the financial market, in particular in the prevention of earnings management practice. We focus on earnings misstatements, which auditors correct with anadjustment, using a sample of past and current constituents of the benchmark market index in Spain, IBEX 35, and manually collected audit adjustments reported over the 1997-2004 period (42 companies, 336 annual reports, 75 earnings misstatements). Our findings confirm that companies more often overstate than understate their earnings. An investor may foresee earningsmisreporting, as manipulators have a similar profile (e.g., more leveraged and with lower sales). However, he may receive valuable information from the audit adjustment on the size of earnings misstatement, which can be significantly large (i.e., material in almost all cases). We suggest that the magnitude of an audit adjustment depends, other things constant, on annual revenues and free cash levels. We also examine how the audit adjustment relates to the observed market price, trading volume and stock returns. Our findings are that earnings manipulators have a lower price and larger trading volume compared to their rivals. Their returns are positively associated with the magnitude of earnings misreporting, which is not consistent with the possible pricing of audit information.

Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

Earnings management in Spain. Some evidence from companies quoted in the Spanish stock exchange

After the accounting scandals that have taken place mainly in the UnitedStates during the last years, some Spanish leading authorities havedefended the idea that this kind of accounting problems cannot happen inSpain. They argue that accounting regulation in Europe, and specificallyin Spain, make more difficult the use of creative accounting practices.The objective of this paper is to identify some evidence about thesituacion in Spain. The study tries to demonstrate that some accountingpractices of several of the companies quoted in the Spanish Stock Exchangecould be qualified as earnings management.To carry out this study, the authors have analysed the accounts of the 35companies included in the stock market index IBEX 35. This index iscalculated with the share prices variations of the most importantcompanies quoted in the Spanish Stock Exchange.

Manipulation of earnings reports in Spain - some evidence

Accounting regulation is a highly topical issue for listed companies in Europe. From 1 January 2005 all companies listed in the EU member states are required to produce financial reports compliant with international accounting standards. Financial reports will be comparable with each other only if full compliance with the international standards can be ensured. Historically, however, an enduring weakness of the international standard-setting regime has been its inability to enforce compliance with its standards. There is a danger that implementation and compliance will be variable across the adopting countries, and that deeply ingrained national reporting practices will persist. The purpose of this paper is to examine some distinctive elements of Spanish financial reporting practices. Spanish financial reporting by major companies demonstrates a tendency towards quite overt manipulation of the earnings figures. The research reported in the paper firstly identifies four common earnings manipulation practices, and then proceeds to examine their incidence in the financial statements of the IBEX-35 companies over a three year period.

Medical demography and intergenerational inequalities in general practitioners' earnings

This article examines the link between restrictions on the number of physicians and general practitioners' (GPs) earnings. Using a representative panel of 6016 French self-employed GPs over the years 1983-2004, we estimate an earnings function to identify experience, time and cohort effects. The estimated gap in earnings between 'good' and 'bad' cohorts can be as large as 25%. GPs who began their practices during the eighties have the lowest permanent earnings: they belong to the large cohorts of the baby-boom and face the consequences of an unlimited number of places in medical schools. Conversely, the decrease in the number of places in medical schools led to an increase in permanent earnings of GPs who began their practices in the mid-nineties. A stochastic dominance analysis shows that unobserved heterogeneity does not compensate for average differences in earnings between cohorts. These findings suggest that the first years of practice are decisive for a GP. If competition between physicians is too intense at the beginning of their careers, they will suffer from permanently lower earnings. To conclude, our results show that the policies aimed at reducing the number of medical students succeeded in buoying up physicians' permanent earnings. [Ed.]

Biases of the ordinary least squares and instrumental variables estimators of the intergenerational earnings elasticity : revisited in the light of panel data

The OLS estimator of the intergenerational earnings correlation is biased towards zero, while the instrumental variables estimator is biased upwards. The first of these results arises because of measurement error, while the latter rests on the presumption that the education of the parent family is an invalid instrument. We propose a panel data framework for quantifying the asymptotic biases of these estimators, as well as a mis-specification test for the IV estimator. [Author]

Iowa Prison Industries Five Year Transition and Business Plan 2011-2015, 2011

IPI is comprised of three divisions. Private Sector funds are handed over to the General Fund. Traditional Industries and Farms funds are managed by IPI. The auditor of the state provides oversight on policies, procedures, and compliance with state law. Each year, the auditor is responsible for providing the Governor, legislature, Director of Corrections, and the public the findings of their comprehensive audits. IPI has received a clean bill of health and has not been cited for any violations in ten (10) years. IPI operates under the guidance of an advisory board, comprised of seven members. The advisory board meets at least four (4) times per year at a location of the board‟s choice, generally at a different prison each quarter. The board reviews the financials, policies, approves any new private sector ventures and offers comprehensive guidance on issues that will impact correctional industries as well as the public and local businesses. Each member serves for two (2) years and may be re-appointed. IPI has found that retaining board members has helped immensely with the continuity of transition and has afforded IPI with superb leadership and guidance. IPI is 100% self-funding. We receive no appropriations from the general fund. We hire our staff, pay their salaries, and pay the stipend of the offenders. We pay for our raw materials, equipment, and construct our buildings all from the proceeds of our sales. We operate with a revolving fund and retain any earnings at year-ends. The retained earnings are used for expansion of our work programs.

CJJP Forecasts Increase in Special Sentence Sex Offenders Caseloads, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, December 2011

The Iowa Sex Offender Research Council recently released a report to the Iowa General Assembly focusing on sex offender registration and the special sentence for sex offenders. Regarding the latter, the Council (staffed by the state’s Division of Criminal & Juvenile Justice Planning) projected a steady increase in community-based corrections’ special sentence caseloads from 619 offenders in 2011 to 2,651 offenders in 2021:

A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Transfer Behavior Transfer Among Iowa Community College Students and Post-college Earnings of Iowa Community College Students, May 15, 2007

Iowa State Board of Education issued a five-year strategic plan to meet accountability goals of Iowa Community Colleges through well defined and articulated performance indicators. More specifically, the fifth strategic goal stated that “the community colleges of Iowa [would] recruit, enroll, retain to completion or graduation persons of underrepresented groups in all programs. Data were obtained to examine the transfer behaviors of the 2002 cohort of Iowa community college award recipients and non-award recipients. Three data files containing demographic information, educational records, enrollment data and fiscal year 2002 degree award files were merged to analyze transfer behavior in the state of Iowa.

Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields: The Fed Model Approach

Prediction of the stock market valuation is a common interest to all market participants. Theoretically sound market valuation can be achieved by discounting future earnings of equities to present. Competing valuation models seek to find variables that affect the equity market valuation in a way that the market valuation can be explained and also variables that could be used to predict market valuation. In this paper we test the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, forward looking earnings and long-term government bond yields. We test this so-called Fed model in a long- and short-term time series analysis. In order to test the dynamics of the relationship, we use the cointegration framework. The data used in this study spans over four decades of various market conditions between 1964-2007, using data from United States. The empirical results of our analysis do not give support for the Fed model. We are able to show that the long-term government bonds do not play statistically significant role in this relationship. The effect of forward earnings yield on the stock market prices is significant and thus we suggest the use of standard valuation ratios when trying to predict the future paths of equity prices. Also, changes in the long-term government bond yields do not have significant short-term impact on stock prices.

Earnings quality and performance in the banking industry: a profit frontier approach

The analysis of efficiency and productivity in banking has received a great deal of attention for almost three decades now. However, most of the literature to date has not explicitly accounted for risk when measuring efficiency. We propose an analysis of profit efficiency taking into account how the inclusion of a variety of bank risk measures might bias efficiency scores. Our measures of risk are partly inspired by the literature on earnings management and earnings quality, keeping in mind that loan loss provisions, as a generally accepted proxy for risk, can be adjusted to manage earnings and regulatory capital. We also consider some variants of traditional models of profit efficiency where different regimes are stipulated so that financial institutions can be evaluated in different dimensions—i.e., prices, quantities, or prices and quantities simultaneously. We perform this analysis on the Spanish banking industry, whose institutions have been deeply affected by the current international financial crisis, and where re-regulation is taking place. Our results can be explored in multiple dimensions but, in general, they indicate that the impact of earnings management on profit efficiency is of less magnitude than what might a priori be expected, and that on the whole, savings banks have performed less well than commercial banks. However, savings banks are adapting to the new regulatory scenario and rapidly catching up with commercial banks, especially in some dimensions of performance.

Earnings Management Shareholders point of view

This paper studies the relationship of earnings management and investors. Analysis of incentives reveals that most of them are opportunistic in nature. Unfortunately the investor would need insider information to distinguish between different forms of earnings management. Investors in some countries seem to devalue earnings when government body has signaled that earnings management might be involved, unfortunately without a clear signal the behavior seems reverse among non-institutional investors.

Country Risk and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements: Evidence from Finnish Stock Markets

The objective of this thesis is to examine the market reaction around earnings announcements in Finnish stock markets. The aim is to find out whether the extreme market conditions during the financial crisis are reflected in stock prices as a stronger reaction. In addition to this, the purpose is to investigate how extensively Finnish listed companies report the country segmentation of revenues in their interim reports and whether the country risk is having a significant impact on perceived market reaction. The sample covers all companies listed in Helsinki stock exchange at 1.1.2010 and these companies’ interim reports from the first quarter of 2008 to last quarter of 2009. Final sample consists of 81 companies and 630 firm-quarter observations. The data sample has been divided in two parts, of which country risk sample contains 17 companies and 127 observations and comparison sample covers 66 companies and 503 observations. Research methodologies applied in this thesis are event study and cross-sectional regression analysis. Empirical results indicate that the market reaction occurs mainly during the announcement day and is slightly stronger in case of positive earnings surprises than the reactions observed in previous studies. In case of negative earnings surprises no significant differences can be observed. In case of country risk sample and negative earnings surprise market reaction is negative already in advance of the disclosure contrary to comparison sample. In case of positive surprise no differences can be observed. Country risk variable developed during this study seems to explain only minor part of the market reaction.