Using data mining for prediction of hospital length of stay: an application of the CRISP-DM Methodology

Hospitals are nowadays collecting vast amounts of data related with patient records. All this data hold valuable knowledge that can be used to improve hospital decision making. Data mining techniques aim precisely at the extraction of useful knowledge from raw data. This work describes an implementation of a medical data mining project approach based on the CRISP-DM methodology. Recent real-world data, from 2000 to 2013, were collected from a Portuguese hospital and related with inpatient hospitalization. The goal was to predict generic hospital Length Of Stay based on indicators that are commonly available at the hospitalization process (e.g., gender, age, episode type, medical specialty). At the data preparation stage, the data were cleaned and variables were selected and transformed, leading to 14 inputs. Next, at the modeling stage, a regression approach was adopted, where six learning methods were compared: Average Prediction, Multiple Regression, Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network ensemble, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. The best learning model was obtained by the Random Forest method, which presents a high quality coefficient of determination value (0.81). This model was then opened by using a sensitivity analysis procedure that revealed three influential input attributes: the hospital episode type, the physical service where the patient is hospitalized and the associated medical specialty. Such extracted knowledge confirmed that the obtained predictive model is credible and with potential value for supporting decisions of hospital managers.

Integrating postoperative value of cardiac Troponin I for a better correlation with in-hospital outcomes after congenital heart surgery.

Objective: Cardiac Troponin-I (cTnI) is a well-recognized early postoperative marker for myocardial damage in adults and children after heart surgery. The present study was undertaken to evaluate whether the integrated value (area under the curve(AUC)) of postoperative cTnI is a better mode to predict long-term outcome than post operative cTnI maximum value, after surgery for congenital heart defects (CHD). Methods: retrospective cohort study. 279 patients (mean age 4.6 years; range 0-17 years-old, 185 males) with congenital heart defect repair on cardiopulmonary by-pass were retrieved from our database including postoperative cTnI values. Maximal post operative cTnI value, post operative cTnI AUC value at 48h and total post operative cTnI AUC value were calculated and then correlated with duration of intubation, duration of ICU stay and mortality. Results: the mean duration of mechanical ventilation was 5.1+/-7.2 days and mean duration of ICU stay was 11.0+/- 13.3 days,11 patients (3.9%) died in post operative period. When comparing survivor and deceased groups, there was a significant difference in the mean value for max cTnI (16.7+/- 21.8 vs 59.2+/-41.4 mcg/l, p+0.0001), 48h AUC cTnI (82.0+/-110.7 vs 268.8+/-497.7 mcg/l, p+0.0001) and total AUC cTnI (623.8+/-1216.7 vs 2564+/-2826.0, p+0.0001). Analyses for duration of mechanical ventilation and duration of ICU stay by linear regression demonstrated a better correlation for 48h AUC cTnI (ventilation time r+0.82, p+0.0001 and ICU stay r+0.74, p+0.0001) then total AUC cTnI (ventilation time r+0.65, p+0.0001 and ICU stay r+0.60, p+0.0001) and max cTnI (ventilation time r+0.64, p+0.0001 and ICU stay r+0.60, p+0.0001). Conclusion: Cardiac Troponin I is a specific and sensitive marker of myocardial injury after congenital heart surgery and it may predict early in-hospital outcomes. Integration of post operative value of cTnI by calculation of AUC improves prediction of early in-hospital outcomes. It probably takes into account, not only the initial surgical procedure, but probably also incorporates the occurrence of hypoxic-ischemic phenomena in the post-operative period.

Children's experience regarding the quality of their hospital stay: the development of an assessment questionnaire for children

A questionnaire assessing the satisfaction of children with their hospital stay has been developed and tested with 136 children (aged 6-12 years) at 2 Swiss hospital sites. Three out of 4 children were satisfied overall with their hospital stay. Their relationships with the professional medical staff, explanations they received, games they played, and environment, all received positive evaluations. The most critical points were pain, fear, and the absence of relatives. Ninety percent of the children appreciated that their opinions were sought. These results reinforce the importance of having questionnaires available for the children to consider their opinions to enhance the quality of care.

Economic burden of surgical site infections at a European university hospital

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the economic burden of in-hospital surgical site infections (SSIs) at a European university hospital. DESIGN: Matched case-control study nested in a prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Basel University Hospital in Switzerland, where an average of 28,000 surgical procedures are performed per year. METHODS: All in-hospital occurrences of SSI associated with surgeries performed between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2001, by the visceral, vascular, and traumatology divisions at Basel University Hospital were prospectively recorded. Each case patient was matched to a control patient by age, procedure code, and National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance System risk index. The case-control pairs were analyzed for differences in cost of hospital care and in provision of specialized care. RESULTS: A total of 6,283 procedures were performed: 187 SSIs were detected in inpatients, 168 of whom were successfully matched with a control patient. For case patients, the mean additional hospital cost was SwF-19,638 (95% confidence interval [CI], SwF-8,492-SwF-30,784); the mean additional postoperative length of hospital stay was 16.8 days (95% CI, 13-20.6 days); and the mean additional in-hospital duration of antibiotic therapy was 7.4 days (95% CI, 5.1-9.6 days). Differences were primarily attributable to organ space SSIs (n = 76). CONCLUSIONS: In a European university hospital setting, SSIs are costly and constitute a heavy and potentially preventable burden on both patients and healthcare providers.

Relationship of hospital volume to patient mortality, length of stay and total costs in patients receiving brain surgery for cancer: A nationwide analysis

Better morbidity and mortality outcomes associated with increased hospital procedural volume have been demonstrated across a number of different medical procedures. Existence of such a volume-outcome relationship is posited to lead to increased specialization of care, such that patients requiring specific procedures are funneled to physicians and hospitals that achieve a minimum volume of such procedures each year. In this study, the 2009 Nationwide Inpatient Sample is used to examine the relationship between hospital volume and patient outcome among patients undergoing procedures related to malignant brain cancer. Multiple regression models were used to examine the impact of hospital volume on length of inpatient stay and cost of inpatient stay; logistic regression was used to examine the impact of hospital volume on morbidity. Hospital volume was found to be a significant predictor of both length of stay and cost of stay. Hospital volume was associated with a lower length of stay, but was also associated with increased costs. Hospital volume was not found to be a statistically significant predictor of morbidity, though less than three percent of this sample died while in the hospital. Volume is indeed a significant predictor of outcome for procedures related to brain malignancies, though further research regarding the cost of such procedures is recommended.^

Economic impact of treatment for surgical site infections in cases of total knee arthroplasty in a tertiary public hospital in Brazil

The aim of this study was to estimate the additional cost of treatment of a group of nosocomial infections in a tertiary public hospital. A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted by means of analyzing the medical records of 34 patients with infection after total knee arthroplasty, diagnosed in 2006 and 2007, who met the criteria for nosocomial infection according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To estimate the direct costs of treatment for these patients, the following data were gathered: length of hospital stay, laboratory tests, imaging examinations, and surgical procedures performed. Their costs were estimated from the minimum values according to the Brazilian Medical Association. The estimated cost of the antibiotics used was also obtained. The total length of stay in the ward was 976 days, at a cost of US$ 18,994.63, and, in the intensive care unit, it was 34 days at a cost of US$ 5,031.37. Forty-two debridement procedures were performed, at a cost of US$ 5,798.06, and 1965 tests (laboratory and imaging) were also performed, at a cost of US$ 15,359.25. US$ 20,845.01 was spent on antibiotics and US$ 1,735.16 on vacuum assisted closure therapy, microsurgical flaps, implant removal, spacer use, and surgical revision. The total additional cost of these cases of hospital infection in 2006 and 2007 was of US$ 91,843.75. Based on that, we demonstrate that the high cost of treatment for hospital infections emphasizes the importance of taking measures to prevent and control hospital infection.

Safety Assessment of Potentially Inappropriate Medications (PIM) use in Older People and the Factors Associated with Hospital Admission

Purpose: Potentially Inappropriate Medications (PIM) use in elderly people may be responsible for the development of Adverse Drug Reaction (ADR) which, when severe, leads to hospital admissions. Objectives: to estimate the prevalence of elderly who had used PIM before being admitted to hospital and to identify the risk factors and the hospitalizations related to ADR arising from PIM. Methods: A descriptive and cross-sectional study was performed in the internal medicine ward of a teaching hospital (Brazil), in 2008. With the aid of a validated form, patients aged >= 60 years, with length of hospital stay >= 24 hours, were interviewed about drugs taken prior to the hospital admission and the complaints/reasons for hospitalization. Results: 19.1% (59/308) of older patients had taken PIM before hospital admission and in 4.9%; there were a causal relation between the PIM taken and the complaint reported. PIM responsible for admissions were: amiodarone, amitriptyline, cimetidine, clonidine, diazepam, digoxin, estrogen, fluoxetine, lorazepam, short-acting nifedipine and propranolol. 47.0% of the clinical manifestations of PIM-related ADR were: dizziness, fatigue, digoxin toxicity and erythema. Only polypharmacy was detected as a risk factor for the occurrence of ADR of PIM (p = 0.02). Conclusion: PIM use in elderly people is not a risk factor for ADR-related hospital admission. Probably, severe ADR, which lead to hospitalizations of older people, can be explained by idiosyncratic response or the predisposition of these patients to develop adverse drug events, whether or not drugs are classed as PIM.

HIV infection among women admitted to the gynaecology service of a district hospital in South Africa

Our objective was to determine the prevalence of HIV infection and disease-specific HIV prevalence among women admitted to the gynaecology service of a district hospital in South Africa over a 3-month period in 1997. This was done with the goal of developing HIV education and counselling services in this setting. HIV status was determined among 196 (96%) of 205 consecutive admissions; 82 (42%) tested HIV positive. The HIV-infected women were younger than the HIV uninfected women (mean age 27 vs 33 years, P=0.001). The disease-specific HIV prevalence was greater than or equal to 40% among women who had had abortions, pelvic inflammatory disease, or ectopic pregnancy. The length of hospital stay (mean 5.4 days) and mortality (1%) were similar in the 2 groups. Inpatient gynaecology services may be act important setting in Africa, within which to provide HIV education, counselling and care.

A controlled trial comparing the efficacy of rice-based and hypotonic glucose oral rehydration solutions in infants and young children with gastroenteritis

A prospective randomized trial was conducted to compare the efficacy of a rice-based oral rehydration solution (ORS) with glucose ORS in infants and children under 5 years of age with acute diarrhoea and mild to moderate dehydration (<10%). One hundred children presenting to a large metropolitan teaching hospital were eligible for entry to the study and were randomized to receive rice ORS or glucose ORS. Outcome measures were stool output (SO), duration of illness (DD) and recovery time to introduction of other fluids (RTF) and diet (RTD). Significant differences were found for all outcome measures in favour of the rice ORS group. Mean SO was lower (160 vs 213 mt; P<0.02), mean DD was reduced (17.3 vs 24.3 h; P = 0.03) and median RTF was decreased (12.7 vs 18.1 h; P< 0.001) in the rice ORS group compared with the glucose ORS group. The median rime to introduction of diet and mean length of hospital stay showed similar significant reductions. Our study has shown rice ORS to be an acceptable alternative to glucose ORS in young children and have shown that it is significantly more effective in reducing the course of diarrhoeal illness and the time taken to return to normal drinking and eating habits.

Autonomy of long-stay psychiatric inpatients

OBJECTIVE: To assess personal autonomy of long-stay psychiatric inpatients, to identify those patients who could be discharged and to evaluate the impact of sociodemographic variables, social functioning, and physical disabilities on their autonomy was also assessed. METHODS: A total of 584 long-stay individuals of a psychiatric hospital (96% of the hospital population) in Southern Brazil was assessed between July and August 2002. The following instruments, adapted to the Brazilian reality, were used: independent living skills survey, social behavioral schedule, and questionnaire for assessing physical disability. RESULTS: Patients showed severe impairment of their personal autonomy, especially concerning money management, work-related skills and leisure, food preparation, and use of transportation. Autonomy deterioration was associated with length of stay (OR=1.02), greater physical disability (OR=1.54; p=0.01), and male gender (OR=3.11; p<0.001). The risk estimate of autonomy deterioration was 23 times greater among those individuals with severe impairment of social functioning (95% CI: 10.67-49.24). CONCLUSIONS: In-patients studied showed serious impairment of autonomy. While planning these patients' discharge their deficits should be taken into consideration. Assessment of patients' ability to function and to be autonomous helps in identifying their needs for care and to evaluate their actual possibilities of social reinsertion.

Level of Physical Activity and In-Hospital Course of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

Abstract Background: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality in the modern world. A sedentary lifestyle, present in 85% of the Brazilian population, is considered a risk factor for the development of coronary artery disease. However, the correlation of a sedentary lifestyle with cardiovascular events (CVE) during hospitalization for ACS is not well established. Objective: To evaluate the association between physical activity level, assessed with the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), with in-hospital prognosis in patients with ACS. Methods: Observational, cross-sectional, and analytical study with 215 subjects with a diagnosis of ACS consecutively admitted to a referral hospital for cardiac patients between July 2009 and February 2011. All volunteers answered the short version of the IPAQ and were observed for the occurrence of CVE during hospitalization with a standardized assessment conducted by the researcher and corroborated by data from medical records. Results: The patients were admitted with diagnoses of unstable angina (34.4%), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) without ST elevation (41.4%), and AMI with ST elevation (24.2%). According to the level of physical activity, the patients were classified as non-active (56.3%) and active (43.7%). A CVE occurred in 35.3% of the cohort. The occurrence of in-hospital complications was associated with the length of hospital stay (odds ratio [OR] = 1.15) and physical inactivity (OR = 2.54), and was independent of age, systolic blood pressure, and prior congestive heart failure. Conclusion: A physically active lifestyle reduces the risk of CVE during hospitalization in patients with ACS.

Impact of duration of chest tube drainage on pain after cardiac surgery.

OBJECTIVE: This study was designed to analyze the duration of chest tube drainage on pain intensity and distribution after cardiac surgery. METHODS: Two groups of 80 cardiac surgery adult patients, operated on in two different hospitals, by the same group of cardiac surgeons, and with similar postoperative strategies, were compared. However, in one hospital (long drainage group), a conservative policy was adopted with the removal the chest tubes by postoperative day (POD) 2 or 3, while in the second hospital (short drainage group), all the drains were usually removed on POD 1. RESULTS: There was a trend toward less pain in the short drainage group, with a statistically significant difference on POD 2 (P=0.047). There were less patients without pain on POD 3 in the long drainage group (P=0. 01). The areas corresponding to the tract of the pleural tube, namely the epigastric area, the left basis of the thorax, and the left shoulder were more often involved in the long drainage group. There were three pneumonias in each group and no patient required repeated drainage. CONCLUSIONS: A policy of early chest drain ablation limits pain sensation and simplifies nursing care, without increasing the need for repeated pleural puncture. Therefore, a policy of short drainage after cardiac surgery should be recommended.

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor in the treatment of high-risk febrile neutropenia: a multicenter randomized trial.

BACKGROUND Granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs) have been shown to help prevent febrile neutropenia in certain subgroups of cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy, but their role in treating febrile neutropenia is controversial. The purpose of our study was to evaluate-in a prospective multicenter randomized clinical trial-the efficacy of adding G-CSF to broad-spectrum antibiotic treatment of patients with solid tumors and high-risk febrile neutropenia. METHODS A total of 210 patients with solid tumors treated with conventional-dose chemotherapy who presented with fever and grade IV neutropenia were considered to be eligible for the trial. They met at least one of the following high-risk criteria: profound neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count <100/mm(3)), short latency from previous chemotherapy cycle (<10 days), sepsis or clinically documented infection at presentation, severe comorbidity, performance status of 3-4 (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group scale), or prior inpatient status. Eligible patients were randomly assigned to receive the antibiotics ceftazidime and amikacin, with or without G-CSF (5 microg/kg per day). The primary study end point was the duration of hospitalization. All P values were two-sided. RESULTS Patients randomly assigned to receive G-CSF had a significantly shorter duration of grade IV neutropenia (median, 2 days versus 3 days; P = 0.0004), antibiotic therapy (median, 5 days versus 6 days; P = 0.013), and hospital stay (median, 5 days versus 7 days; P = 0.015) than patients in the control arm. The incidence of serious medical complications not present at the initial clinical evaluation was 10% in the G-CSF group and 17% in the control group (P = 0.12), including five deaths in each study arm. The median cost of hospital stay and the median overall cost per patient admission were reduced by 17% (P = 0.01) and by 11% (P = 0.07), respectively, in the G-CSF arm compared with the control arm. CONCLUSIONS Adding G-CSF to antibiotic therapy shortens the duration of neutropenia, reduces the duration of antibiotic therapy and hospitalization, and decreases hospital costs in patients with high-risk febrile neutropenia.