Perfil sociodemográfico dos idosos nas capitais do Nordeste e a mortalidade por doenças crônico-degenerativas desse segmento populacional em Natal (RN)

Population aging is a global demographic trend. This process is a reality that merits attention and importance in recent years, and cause considerable impact in terms of greater demands on the health sector, social security and special care and attention from families and society as a whole. Thus, in the context of addressing the consequences of demographic transition, population aging is characterized as a major challenge for Brazilian society. Therefore, this study was conducted in two main objectives. In the first article, variables of socioeconomic and demographic contexts were employed to identify multidimensional profiles of elderly residents in the Northeast capitals, from specific indicators from the 2010 Census information Therefore, we used the Grade of Membership Method (GoM), whose design profiles admits that an individual belongs to different degrees of relevance to multiple profiles in order to identify socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with living conditions of the elderly in the Northeastern capitals. The second article examined the possible relationship between mortality from chronic diseases and socio-economic indicators in the elderly population, of the 137 districts in Natal, broken down by ten-year age groups (60 to 69 years, 70-79 years and 80 and over. The microdata from the Mortality Information System (SIM), was used, provided by the Health Secretariat of Christmas, and population information came from the Population Census 2010. The method refers to the Global and Local Index neighborhood logic (LISA) Moran, whose spatial distribution from the choropleth maps allowed us to analyze the mortality of the elderly by neighborhoods, according to socioeconomic and demographic indicators, according to the presence of special significance. In the first article, the results show the identification of three extreme profiles. The Profile 1 which is characterized by median socioeconomic status and contributes 35.5% of elderly residents in the area considered. The profile 2 which brings together seniors with low socioeconomic status characteristics, with a percentage of 24.8% of cases. And the Profile 3 composing elderly with features that reveal better socioeconomic conditions, about 29.7% of the elderly. Overall, the results point to poor living conditions represented by the definition of these profiles, mainly expressed by the results observed in more than half of the northeastern elderly experience a situation of social vulnerability given the large percentage that makes up the Profile 1 and Profile 2, adding 60% of the elderly. In the second article, the results show a higher proportion of elderly concentrated in the neighborhoods of higher socioeconomic status, such as Petrópolis and LagoaSeca. Mortality rates, according to the causes of death and standardized by the empirical Bayesian method were distributed locally as follows: Neoplasms (Reis Santos, New Discovery, New Town, Grass Soft and Ponta Negra); Hypertensive diseases (Blue Lagoon, Potengi, Redinha, Reis Santos, Riverside, Lagoa Nova, Grass Soft, Neópolis and Ponta Negra); Acute Myocardial Infarction (Northeast, Guarapes and grass Soft); Cerebrovascular diseases (Petrópolis and Mother Luiza); Pneumonia (Ribeira, Praia do Meio, New Discovery, Grass Soft and Ponta Negra); Chronic Diseases of the Lower Way Airlines (Igapó, Northeast and Thursdays). The present findings at work may contribute to other studies on the subject and development of specific policies for the elderly.

Perfil sociodemográfico dos idosos nas capitais do Nordeste e a mortalidade por doenças crônico-degenerativas desse segmento populacional em Natal (RN)

Population aging is a global demographic trend. This process is a reality that merits attention and importance in recent years, and cause considerable impact in terms of greater demands on the health sector, social security and special care and attention from families and society as a whole. Thus, in the context of addressing the consequences of demographic transition, population aging is characterized as a major challenge for Brazilian society. Therefore, this study was conducted in two main objectives. In the first article, variables of socioeconomic and demographic contexts were employed to identify multidimensional profiles of elderly residents in the Northeast capitals, from specific indicators from the 2010 Census information Therefore, we used the Grade of Membership Method (GoM), whose design profiles admits that an individual belongs to different degrees of relevance to multiple profiles in order to identify socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with living conditions of the elderly in the Northeastern capitals. The second article examined the possible relationship between mortality from chronic diseases and socio-economic indicators in the elderly population, of the 137 districts in Natal, broken down by ten-year age groups (60 to 69 years, 70-79 years and 80 and over. The microdata from the Mortality Information System (SIM), was used, provided by the Health Secretariat of Christmas, and population information came from the Population Census 2010. The method refers to the Global and Local Index neighborhood logic (LISA) Moran, whose spatial distribution from the choropleth maps allowed us to analyze the mortality of the elderly by neighborhoods, according to socioeconomic and demographic indicators, according to the presence of special significance. In the first article, the results show the identification of three extreme profiles. The Profile 1 which is characterized by median socioeconomic status and contributes 35.5% of elderly residents in the area considered. The profile 2 which brings together seniors with low socioeconomic status characteristics, with a percentage of 24.8% of cases. And the Profile 3 composing elderly with features that reveal better socioeconomic conditions, about 29.7% of the elderly. Overall, the results point to poor living conditions represented by the definition of these profiles, mainly expressed by the results observed in more than half of the northeastern elderly experience a situation of social vulnerability given the large percentage that makes up the Profile 1 and Profile 2, adding 60% of the elderly. In the second article, the results show a higher proportion of elderly concentrated in the neighborhoods of higher socioeconomic status, such as Petrópolis and LagoaSeca. Mortality rates, according to the causes of death and standardized by the empirical Bayesian method were distributed locally as follows: Neoplasms (Reis Santos, New Discovery, New Town, Grass Soft and Ponta Negra); Hypertensive diseases (Blue Lagoon, Potengi, Redinha, Reis Santos, Riverside, Lagoa Nova, Grass Soft, Neópolis and Ponta Negra); Acute Myocardial Infarction (Northeast, Guarapes and grass Soft); Cerebrovascular diseases (Petrópolis and Mother Luiza); Pneumonia (Ribeira, Praia do Meio, New Discovery, Grass Soft and Ponta Negra); Chronic Diseases of the Lower Way Airlines (Igapó, Northeast and Thursdays). The present findings at work may contribute to other studies on the subject and development of specific policies for the elderly.

Transição demográfica e a questão educacional: uma abordagem para o ensino médio do Rio Grande do Norte

Due to demographic transition process, the educational public sector politics formers encounter a highly specific demographic situation because, nowadays, despite the demographic transition, population is still growing because of the demographic inertia; however, due to steady decline in fertility, young population tends to decrease in next years. In this way, aiming to make high school widely accessible in the country, the issue of education quality is highlighted as well the importance of the physical structure of schools and their teaching equipments to confirm a favorable or not environment for developing educational processes. In this way, this work aims to relate the enrollment of students as school types with the demand of young people who will be able to attend high school on the Rio Grande do Norte state by the year of 2020, emphasizing teaching unities structural aspects, from a school profiling to the design of three prospective alternatives. So, from INEP's Scholar Census data and IBGE population's projections, this work is composed by four stages: i) literature review about research related subjects; ii) database design and build; iii) school profiling; and, iv) prospective alternatives creation. As results, three alternatives relate potential demand and enrollment using the built profiles and they are: i) “Alternative A” attends PEE's requirements related to demands but do not provide improvements in the school structural aspects; ii) “Alternative B” points into an increase of enrollment offering to the detriment of school's structural conditions which are offered to these students; iii) “Alternative C” propitiates a quantitative enrollment increasing combined with improvements on school's physical structure. These alternatives help to support decision making related to goals and realization of universal access with physical conditions which are necessary to a favorable environment to educational activity development.

Older Adult Injury Risk Assessment in the Driving and Occupational Environments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Age-Specific Fertility Dynamics: Sub-Saharan African Fertility in a Global Context

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Nivel de actividad física medida a través del cuestionario internacional de actividad física en adultos mayores de las parroquias urbanas de Cuenca-Ecuador, 2015

Introducción: Mundialmente existe una transición demográfica, así en Ecuador al 2010 representaban el 7% y al 2050 representarán el 18%. El envejecimiento poblacional ocasiona un aumento de los índices de enfermedades crónicas degenerativas asociadas a un nivel insuficiente de actividad física incrementando el riesgo de muerte de 20% a 30%. Niveles moderados-vigorosos de actividad física reportan beneficios para la salud, por esta razón y debido a la escasa evidencia de esta área en Cuenca, se desarrolló este estudio para conocer el nivel de actividad física en los adultos mayores de nuestra ciudad. Objetivo general: Determinar el nivel de actividad física a través del IPAQ (versión corta) en adultos mayores de las parroquias urbanas de la ciudad de Cuenca. Metodología: Estudio descriptivo con una muestra de 387 adultos mayores en quienes se aplicó el cuestionario Internacional de Actividad Física (IPAQ) en su versión corta mediante entrevista, una vez cumplidos los criterios de inclusión: hombres y mujeres de 65 años o más que deseen participar y firmen el consentimiento informado. Los datos fueron analizados y procesados en el programa SPSS versión 15, utilizando distribución de frecuencias, medidas de tendencia central (media) y de dispersión (desvío estándar). Resultados: Se estudiaron 387 adultos mayores, el 64,6% estuvo entre los 65-74 años, 63,6% fue de sexo femenino, 55,8% estuvo casado, 53,4% terminó la primaria, 70,5% no fueron activos laboralmente. El 45% de adultos mayores tuvo un nivel alto de actividad física, 37% moderado y 18% bajo. Los niveles de actividad física variaron con la edad, estado civil, nivel de instrucción y ocupación laboral. Conclusiones: Los adultos mayores de Cuenca presentan un nivel alto de actividad física, el cual puede variar por ciertas características sociodemográficas

Frecuencia de hipertensión arterial en los adultos mayores de las parroquias urbanas de Cuenca-Ecuador, 2015

Introducción: A nivel mundial la población de adultos mayores se incrementa, Ecuador no se queda fuera de esta transición demográfica y así aumentan también todas las enfermedades asociadas con la edad, principalmente la hipertensión arterial. Objetivo: Determinar la frecuencia de hipertensión arterial en adultos mayores de las parroquias urbanas de la ciudad de Cuenca, 2015. Metodología: Se realizó un estudio descriptivo en una muestra de 378 adultos mayores. Fueron hipertensos aquellos pacientes que tengan dos tomas de presión arterial separadas como mínimo una semana en las cuales la presión arterial sistólica sea >o= a 140 mmHg y presión arterial diastólica >o= a 90 mmHg. Se clasificó según parámetros sociodemográficos, antecedentes familiares, estado nutricional y actividad física. El muestreo fue de las zonas censales de cada parroquia, se usó un muestreo aleatorio simple. Los datos fueron analizados en el programa SPSS versión 15.0, utilizando distribución de frecuencias, medidas de tendencia central: media y medidas de dispersión: desvió estándar. Resultados: la frecuencia de hipertensión arterial fue 52,5%. El 65,1% de hipertensos fueron mujeres y el 34.9% hombres. El 57,6% de hipertensos fueron estuvieron entre los 65 y 74 años. El 41,2% tenía instrucción primaria completa. El 76,4% no tenía una ocupación laboral. El 51,2% no tenía antecedentes familiares de HTA. El 40% realizaba actividad física moderada. El 41,9% presentó obesidad. Conclusión: la frecuencia de hipertensión arterial en los adultos mayores de las parroquias urbanas de la ciudad de Cuenca fue del 52,5%

Evaluación de la confiabilidad del cuestionario internacional de actividad física (IPAQ) en la población adulta mayor del área urbana del cantón Cuenca en el año 2015

Antecedentes La transición demográfica produce el crecimiento de la población de adultos mayores en América Latina y, de manera particular, en los países andinos. Es por eso que la OMS propone como instrumento para medir la actividad física el Cuestionario Internacional de Actividad Física (IPAQ). Objetivo: Validar el cuestionario Internacional de Actividad Física (IPAQ) en la población adulta mayor del área urbana del Cantón Cuenca en el año 2015. Metodología Este estudio evaluó la confiabilidad del Cuestionario Internacional de Actividad Física (IPAQ), mediante el cual se midieron los niveles de actividad física en 378 adultos mayores del área urbana del cantón Cuenca. El cuestionario se aplicó en dos ocasiones con un lapso de una semana. La tabulación de datos se realizó en Excel y SPSS. Para los resultados se empleó el alfa de cronbach y la correlacion intraclase. Resultados Los valores de correlación intraclase y el Alfa de Cronbach para el IPAQ 1 y el IPAQ 2 son superiores a 0,7. Estos valores muestran que es confiable y los resultados son consistentes. La estadística no arrojó diferencias significativas entre ambos controles. En la edad ha medida que ésta aumenta, la actividad física disminuye. El estado civil por sí solo no muestra asociación estadística con la actividad física. El nivel de instrucción no parece ser un acápite que defina el nivel de actividad física de las personas. La ocupación o no de las personas sí determina el nivel de actividad física

The role of chance events in the school-to-work transition: The influence of demographic, personality and career development variables

Chance events are considered important in career development, yet little empirical research is available on their predictors and consequences. The present study investigated socio-demographic (gender, nationality, school-type), personality (openness, locus of control) and career development variables (career decidedness, career planning) in relation to perceived chance events with a retrospective (N = 229, eleventh grade), and 1-year longitudinal prospective study (N = 245, eighth/ninth grade) among Swiss adolescents. The results showed that the majority of both groups reported a significant influence of chance events on their transition from compulsory school to vocational education or high school. Importance of chance events related to socio-demographics and personality but not career preparation. Career preparation and chance events predicted subjective career success in terms of wish correspondence and overall satisfaction with transition outcome among the younger cohort. Implications include the necessity to integrate both thorough career preparation and chance events in theory and counseling practice.

How well are Australian children doing in the first year of school : a demographic analysis

Background: The transition to school is a sensitive period for children in relation to school success. In the early school years, children need to develop positive attitudes to school and have experiences that promote academic, behavioural and social competence. When children begin school there are higher expectations of responsibility and independence and in the year one class, there are more explicit academic goals for literacy and numeracy and more formal instruction. Most importantly, children’s early attitudes to learning and learning styles have an impact on later educational outcomes. Method: Data were drawn from The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). LSAC is a cross-sequential cohort study funded by the Australian Government. In these analyses, Wave 2 (2006) data for 2499 children in the Kindergarten Cohort were used. Children, at Wave 2, were in the first year of formal school. They had a mean age of 6.9 years (SD= 0.26). Measures included a 6-item measure of Approaches to Learning (task persistence, independence) and the Academic Rating Scales for language and literacy and mathematical thinking. Teachers rated their relationships with children on the short form of the STRS. Results: Girls were rated by their teachers as doing better than boys on Language and literacy, Approaches to learning; and they had a better relationship with their teacher. Children from an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Island (ATSI) background were rated as doing less well on Language and Literacy and Mathematical thinking and on their Approaches to learning. Children from high Socio Economic Position families are doing better on teacher rated Language and Literacy, Mathematical thinking, Approaches to learning and they had a better relationship with their teacher. Conclusions: Findings highlight the importance of key demographic variables in understanding children’s early school success.

Factors associated with common mental disorders during the transition to adulthood : do emerging adults and ‘early starters’ differ? Findings from an Australian birth cohort study

Background: Despite increasing diversity in pathways to adulthood, choices available to young people are influenced by environmental, familial and individual factors, namely access to socioeconomic resources, family support and mental and physical health status. Young people from families with higher socioeconomic position (SEP) are more likely to pursue tertiary education and delay entry to adulthood, whereas those from low socioeconomic backgrounds are less likely to attain higher education or training, and more likely to partner and become parents early. The first group are commonly termed ‘emerging adults’ and the latter group ‘early starters’. Mental health disorders during this transition can seriously disrupt psychological, social and academic development as well as employment prospects. Depression, anxiety and most substance use disorders have early onset during adolescence and early adulthood with approximately three quarters of lifetime psychiatric disorders having emerged by 24 years of age. Aims: This thesis aimed to explore the relationships between mental health, sociodemographic factors and family functioning during the transition to adulthood. Four areas were investigated: 1) The key differences between emerging adults and ‘early starters’, were examined and focused on a series of social, economic, and demographic factors as well as DSM-IV diagnoses; 2) Methodological issues associated with the measurement of depression and anxiety in young adults were explored by comparing a quantitative measure of symptoms of anxiety and depression (Achenbach’s YSR and YASR internalising scales) with DSM-IV diagnosed depression and anxiety. 3) The association between family SEP and DSM-IV depression and anxiety was examined in relation to the different pathways to adulthood. 4) Finally, the association between pregnancy loss, abortion and miscarriage, and DSM-IV diagnoses of common psychiatric disorders was assessed in young women who reported early parenting, experiencing a pregnancy loss, or who had never been pregnant. Methods: Data were taken from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a large birth cohort started in 1981 in Brisbane, Australia. 7223 mothers and their children were assessed five times, at 6 months, 5, 14 and 21 years after birth. Over 3700 young adults, aged 18 to 23 years, were interviewed at the 21-year phase. Respondents completed an extensive series of self-reported questionnaires and a computerised structured psychiatric interview. Three outcomes were assessed at the 21-year phase. Mental health disorders diagnosed by a computerised structured psychiatric interview (CIDI-Auto), the prevalence of DSM-IV depression, anxiety and substance use disorders within the previous 12-month, during the transition (between ages of 18 and 23 years) or lifetime were examined. The primary outcome “current stage in the transition to adulthood” was developed using a measure conceptually constructed from the literature. The measure was based on important demographic markers, and these defined four independent groups: emerging adults (single with no children and living with parents), and three categories of ‘early starter’, singles (with no children or partner, living independently), those with a partner (married or cohabitating but without children) and parents. Early pregnancy loss was assessed using a measure that also defined four independent groups and was based on pregnancy outcomes in the young women This categorised the young women into those who were never pregnant, women who gave birth to a live child, and women who reported some form of pregnancy loss, either an abortion or a spontaneous miscarriage. A series of analyses were undertaken to test the study aims. Potential confounding and mediating factors were prospectively measured between the child’s birth and the 21-year phase. Binomial and multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of relevant outcomes, and the associations were reported as odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Key findings: The thesis makes a number of important contributions to our understanding of the transition to adulthood, particularly in relation to the mental health consequences associated with different pathways. Firstly, findings from the thesis clearly showed that young people who parented or partnered early fared worse across most of the economic and social factors as well as the common mental disorders when compared to emerging adults. That is, young people who became early parents were also more likely to experience recent anxiety (OR=2.0, 95%CI 1.5-2.8) and depression (OR=1.7, 95%CI 1.1-2.7) than were emerging adults after taking into account a range of confounding factors. Singles and those partnering early also had higher rates of lifetime anxiety and depression than emerging adults. Young people who partnered early, but were without children, had decreased odds of recent depression; this may be due to the protective effect of early marriage against depression. It was also found that young people who form families early had an increased risk of cigarette smoking (parents OR=3.7, 95%CI 2.9-4.8) compared to emerging adults, but not heavy alcohol (parents OR=0.4, 95%CI 0.3-0.6) or recent illicit drug use. The high rates of cigarette smoking and tobacco use disorders in ‘early starters’ were explained by common risk factors related to early adversity and lower SEP. Having a child and early marriage may well function as a ‘turning point’ for some young people, it is not clear whether this is due to a conscious decision to disengage from a previous ‘substance using’ lifestyle or simply that they no longer have the time to devote to such activities because of child caring. In relation to the methodological issues associated with assessing common mental disorders in young adults, it was found that although the Achenbach empirical internalising scales successfully predicted both later DSM-IV depression (YSR OR=2.3, 95%CI 1.7-3.1) and concurrently diagnosed depression (YASR OR=6.9, 95%CI 5.0- 9.5) and anxiety (YASR OR=5.1, 95%CI 3.8- 6.7), the scales discriminated poorly between young people with or without DSM-IV diagnosed mood disorder. Sensitivity values (the proportion of true positives) for the internalising scales were surprisingly low. Only a third of young people with current DSM-IV depression (range for each of the scales was between 34% to 42%) were correctly identified as cases by the YASR internalising scales, and only a quarter with current anxiety disorder (range of 23% to 31%) were correctly identified. Also, use of the DSM-oriented scales increased sensitivity only marginally (for depression between 2-8%, and anxiety between 2-6%) above the standard Achenbach scales. This is despite the fact that the DSM-oriented scales were originally developed to overcome the poor prediction of DSM-IV diagnoses by the Achenbach scales. The internalising scales, both standard and DSM-oriented, were much more effective at identifying young people with comorbid depression and anxiety, with OR’s 10.1 to 21.7 depending on the internalising scale used. SEP is an important predictor of both an early transition to adulthood and the experience of anxiety during that time Family income during adolescence was a strong predictor of early parenting and partnering before age 24 but not early independent living. Compared to families in the upper quintile, young people from families with low income were nearly twice as likely to live with a partner and four times more likely to become parents (OR ranged from 2.6 to 4.0). This association remained after adjusting for current employment and education level. Children raised in low income families were 30% more likely to have an anxiety disorder (OR=1.3, 95%CI 0.9-1.9), but not depression, as young adults when compared to children from wealthier families. Emerging adults and ‘early starters’ from low income families did not differ in their likelihood of having a later anxiety disorder. Young women reporting a pregnancy loss had nearly three times the odds of experiencing a lifetime illicit drug disorder (excluding cannabis) [abortion OR=3.6, 95%CI 2.0-6.7 and miscarriage OR=2.6, 95%CI 1.2-5.4]. Abortion was associated with alcohol use disorder (OR=2.1, 95%CI 1.3- 3.5) and 12-month depression (OR=1.9, 95%CI 1.1- 3.1). These finding suggest that the association identified by Fergusson et al between abortion and later psychiatric disorders in young women may be due to pregnancy loss and not to abortion, per se. Conclusion: Findings from this thesis support the view that young people who parent or partner early have a greater burden of depression and anxiety when compared to emerging adults. As well, young women experiencing pregnancy loss, from either abortion or miscarriage, are more likely to experience depression and anxiety than are those who give birth to a live infant or who have never been pregnant. Depression, anxiety and substance use disorders often go unrecognised and untreated in young people; this is especially true in young people from lower SEP. Early identification of these common mental health disorders is important, as depression and anxiety experienced during the transition to adulthood have been found to seriously disrupt an individual’s social, educational and economic prospects in later life.

Social and demographic factors of young fathers in the UK and USA

Research on disadvantaged young fathers has been minimally addressed in the literature, particularly in the UK. In both countries teenage pregnancy rates are high and costly in terms of social policy and community provision. This paper explores 2 studies involving 24 young men with an average age of 17 on the transition to young fatherhood; one study was conducted in the UK with white young men and the other in the USA with black young men. The findings from both studies indicated common themes from their stories, particularly with regard to the high levels of disadvantage and social exclusion they had been exposed to in their demographic environments and the anti-social behaviour they described engaging in, prior to the birth of their child/ren. Specifically, a significant proportion of the young men described how they had been immersed in drug and gun crimes and how this shaped their lives and neighbourhoods. Becoming fathers is presented by both sets of young men as rescuing them from this criminal lifestyle.

Les facteurs internes et externes ayant un impact sur le retour aux études universitaires des professionnels en transition de carrière

Objet : Au Québec, comme dans le reste du Canada, le nombre de professionnels en reprise d’étude est en nette augmentation. Parmi ces professionnels, un certain nombre se trouve en situation de transition professionnelle après plusieurs années de travail. L'objectif de cette recherche est de déterminer quels facteurs influent sur les retours aux études de ces professionnels. Méthode : au total, 625 étudiants adultes de la faculté d’éducation permanente de l’Université de Montréal ont reçu une invitation à répondre à un sondage en ligne après avoir informé de leur intérêt pour notre étude. Le sondage en ligne a rendu possible la collection de 170 réponses (taux de réponses de 27,2%) à notre questionnaire de 64 questions. Les informations collectées ont permis la création de diverses variables ainsi que d’indices de confiance, de volonté, de temps, d’information qui ont par la suite été recoupés avec les informations dispositionnelles, situationnelles, institutionnelles et démographiques de notre échantillon. Découvertes : Il apparaît que la confiance, la motivation et le temps sont les facteurs ayant le plus d’impact sur le retour aux études de notre échantillon. Implication : Maintenir la motivation et la confiance semble être la clé pour minimiser l'impact de facteurs défavorables sur les professionnels qui décident de retourner à l'école après leur début de carrière. Originalité et intérêt : Peu d'études ont été réalisées sur la participation de ces professionnels en transition à des programmes de formation universitaire, cette étude exploratoire est un premier pas dans la collecte d’information sur une population méconnue.

Résilience des populations rurales javanaises face à la transition agraire : désagrarianisation, migrations et entrepreneuriat

L’île de Java fait partie des régions les plus densément peuplées du monde. Lors de la seconde moitié du vingtième siècle, le gouvernement indonésien a instauré des politiques de transmigrations visant à décongestionner démographiquement l’île-maîtresse. Mais les objectifs de ce programme étaient multiples, visant notamment à fournir la main d’œuvre agricole, à bas prix, aux agro-industries afin de les inciter à s’installer dans les îles de la périphérie javanaise. La transition agraire a valorisé l’implantation de l’agriculture intensive à grande échelle. Ceci a contribué à l’exclusion progressive des paysans Javanais au sein des systèmes de production agricole, engendrant un changement de valeurs et d'aspirations au sein des communautés rurales. La transition agraire a ainsi contribué à accentuer la désagrarianisation des communautés rurales javanaises, se traduisant en un immense surplus de main-d’œuvre dans les campagnes suite à la révolution verte qui a été entamée au cours de la décennie 1970. L’émergence d’un noyau d’entrepreneurs et les migrations de travailleurs sont au cœur des stratégies de résilience économique développées par les paysans javanais pour faire face aux impacts de la transition agraire. Les rapatriements de fonds qui découlent des migrations contribuent à la survie de certaines communautés rurales, dans lesquelles de nombreux membres passent le plus clair de leur temps à l’extérieur du village.

Demographic bottlenecks in tropical plant regeneration: A comparative analysis of causal influences

Mortality factors that act sequentially through the demographic transitions from seed to sapling may have critical effects on recruitment success. Understanding how habitat heterogeneity influences the causal factors that limit propagule establishment in natural populations is central to assess these demographic bottlenecks and their consequences. Bamboos often influence forest structure and dynamics and are a major factor in generating landscape complexity and habitat heterogeneity in tropical forests. To understand how patch heterogeneity influences plant recruitment we studied critical establishment stages during early recruitment of Euterpe edulis, Sloanea guianensis and Virola bicuhyba in bamboo and non-bamboo stands in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. We combined observational studies of seed rain and seedling emergence with seed addition experiments to evaluate the transition probabilities among regeneration stages within bamboo and non-bamboo stands. The relative importance of each mortality factor was evaluated by determining how the loss of propagules affected stage-specific recruitment success. Our results revealed that the seed addition treatment significantly increased seedling survivorship for all three species. E. edulis seedling survival probability increased in the addition treatment in the two stand types. However, for S. guianensis and V. bicuhyba this effect depended strongly on artificially protecting the seeds, as both species experienced increased seed and seedling losses due to post-dispersal seed predators and herbivores. Propagules of all three species had a greater probability of reaching subsequent recruitment stages when protected. The recruitment of large-seeded V. bicuhyba and E. edulis appears to be much more limited by post-dispersal factors than by dispersal limitation, whereas the small-seeded S. guianensis showed an even stronger effect of post-dispersal factors causing recruitment collapse in some situations. We demonstrated that E. edulis, S. guianensis and V. bicuhyba are especially susceptible to predation during early compared with later establishment stages and this early stage mortality can be more crucial than stand differences as determinants of successful regeneration. Among-species differences in the relative importance of dispersal vs. establishment limitation are mediated by variability in species responses to patch heterogeneity. Thus, bamboo effects on the early recruitment of non-bamboo species are patchy and species-specific, with successional bamboo patches exerting a far-reaching influence on the heterogeneity of plant species composition and abundance. © 2012 Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics.