Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is interest in studying latent variables. These latent variables are directly considered in the Item Response Models (IRM) and they are usually called latent traits. A usual assumption for parameter estimation of the IRM, considering one group of examinees, is to assume that the latent traits are random variables which follow a standard normal distribution. However, many works suggest that this assumption does not apply in many cases. Furthermore, when this assumption does not hold, the parameter estimates tend to be biased and misleading inference can be obtained. Therefore, it is important to model the distribution of the latent traits properly. In this paper we present an alternative latent traits modeling based on the so-called skew-normal distribution; see Genton (2004). We used the centred parameterization, which was proposed by Azzalini (1985). This approach ensures the model identifiability as pointed out by Azevedo et al. (2009b). Also, a Metropolis Hastings within Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm was built for parameter estimation by using an augmented data approach. A simulation study was performed in order to assess the parameter recovery in the proposed model and the estimation method, and the effect of the asymmetry level of the latent traits distribution on the parameter estimation. Also, a comparison of our approach with other estimation methods (which consider the assumption of symmetric normality for the latent traits distribution) was considered. The results indicated that our proposed algorithm recovers properly all parameters. Specifically, the greater the asymmetry level, the better the performance of our approach compared with other approaches, mainly in the presence of small sample sizes (number of examinees). Furthermore, we analyzed a real data set which presents indication of asymmetry concerning the latent traits distribution. The results obtained by using our approach confirmed the presence of strong negative asymmetry of the latent traits distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Respostas funcionais de diferentes tamanhos de Tilápia do Nilo; Oreochromis niloticus; predando zooplâncton

The Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, is an important omnivorous fish in the reservoirs of the semi-arid region of Brazil. Throughout its growth tilapia s feeding behavior changes from a visual predator of zooplankton to a filter-feeder, collecting suspended particulate matter, including planktonic organisms, through pumping. This feature results in different impacts of tilapia on plankton community as the fish grows. Aiming to quantify the functional response of different sizes of Nile tilapia on zooplankton experiments in microcosms scale in the laboratory and in mesocosm scale in the field were carried out. The data were fitted to four different models of functional response. The best fits were obtained for nonlinear models in laboratory experiments. While the experiments in mesocosms were the best settings for responses of type I (juvenile and adult tilapia) and type III (fry). The Manly's alpha index was used to evaluate the feeding selectivity of tilapia on the three main groups of the zooplankton in the experiments in mesocosms. The results show that: (i) rotifers were the preferred prey of fingerlings,(ii) copepods were rejected by fry and juvenile tilapia and (iii) adult fish fed non-selectively on copepods, cladocerans and rotifers. The functional response models obtained in this research can be applied to population models and help in modeling the dynamics of interactions between Nile tilapia and the planktonic communities in the reservoirs of the semi-arid

A high-throughput screening assay for distinguishing nitrile hydratases from nitrilases

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Parameter recovery for a skew-normal IRT model under a Bayesian approach: hierarchical framework, prior and kernel sensitivity and sample size

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.

A Neuromonitoring Approach to Facial Nerve Preservation During Image-guided Robotic Cochlear Implantation.

HYPOTHESIS A multielectrode probe in combination with an optimized stimulation protocol could provide sufficient sensitivity and specificity to act as an effective safety mechanism for preservation of the facial nerve in case of an unsafe drill distance during image-guided cochlear implantation. BACKGROUND A minimally invasive cochlear implantation is enabled by image-guided and robotic-assisted drilling of an access tunnel to the middle ear cavity. The approach requires the drill to pass at distances below 1 mm from the facial nerve and thus safety mechanisms for protecting this critical structure are required. Neuromonitoring is currently used to determine facial nerve proximity in mastoidectomy but lacks sensitivity and specificity necessaries to effectively distinguish the close distance ranges experienced in the minimally invasive approach, possibly because of current shunting of uninsulated stimulating drilling tools in the drill tunnel and because of nonoptimized stimulation parameters. To this end, we propose an advanced neuromonitoring approach using varying levels of stimulation parameters together with an integrated bipolar and monopolar stimulating probe. MATERIALS AND METHODS An in vivo study (sheep model) was conducted in which measurements at specifically planned and navigated lateral distances from the facial nerve were performed to determine if specific sets of stimulation parameters in combination with the proposed neuromonitoring system could reliably detect an imminent collision with the facial nerve. For the accurate positioning of the neuromonitoring probe, a dedicated robotic system for image-guided cochlear implantation was used and drilling accuracy was corrected on postoperative microcomputed tomographic images. RESULTS From 29 trajectories analyzed in five different subjects, a correlation between stimulus threshold and drill-to-facial nerve distance was found in trajectories colliding with the facial nerve (distance <0.1 mm). The shortest pulse duration that provided the highest linear correlation between stimulation intensity and drill-to-facial nerve distance was 250 μs. Only at low stimulus intensity values (≤0.3 mA) and with the bipolar configurations of the probe did the neuromonitoring system enable sufficient lateral specificity (>95%) at distances to the facial nerve below 0.5 mm. However, reduction in stimulus threshold to 0.3 mA or lower resulted in a decrease of facial nerve distance detection range below 0.1 mm (>95% sensitivity). Subsequent histopathology follow-up of three representative cases where the neuromonitoring system could reliably detect a collision with the facial nerve (distance <0.1 mm) revealed either mild or inexistent damage to the nerve fascicles. CONCLUSION Our findings suggest that although no general correlation between facial nerve distance and stimulation threshold existed, possibly because of variances in patient-specific anatomy, correlations at very close distances to the facial nerve and high levels of specificity would enable a binary response warning system to be developed using the proposed probe at low stimulation currents.

Major and trace element content of the 17 lithostratigraphic units recovered during DSDP Leg 49 (Table 1)

IPOD Leg 49 recovered basalts from 9 holes at 7 sites along 3 transects across the Mid-Atlantic Ridge: 63°N (Reykjanes), 45°N and 36°N (FAMOUS area). This has provided further information on the nature of mantle heterogeneity in the North Atlantic by enabling studies to be made of the variation of basalt composition with depth and with time near critical areas (Iceland and the Azores) where deep mantle plumes are thought to exist. Over 150 samples have been analysed for up to 40 major and trace elements and the results used to place constraints on the petrogenesis of the erupted basalts and hence on the geochemical nature of their source regions. It is apparent that few of the recovered basalts have the geochemical characteristics of typical "depleted" midocean ridge basalts (MORB). An unusually wide range of basalt compositions may be erupted at a single site: the range of rare earth patterns within the short section cored at Site 413, for instance, encompasses the total variation of REE patterns previously reported from the FAMOUS area. Nevertheless it is possible to account for most of the compositional variation at a single site by partial melting processes (including dynamic melting) and fractional crystallization. Partial melting mechanisms seem to be the dominant processes relating basalt compositions, particularly at 36°N and 45°N, suggesting that long-lived sub-axial magma chambers may not be a consistent feature of the slow-spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Comparisons of basalts erupted at the same ridge segment for periods of the order of 35 m.y. (now lying along the same mantle flow line) do show some significant inter-site differences in Rb/Sr, Ce/Yb, 87Sr/86Sr, etc., which cannot be accounted for by fractionation mechanisms and which must reflect heterogeneities in the mantle source. However when hygromagmatophile (HYG) trace element levels and ratios are considered, it is the constancy or consistency of these HYG ratios which is the more remarkable, implying that the mantle source feeding a particular ridge segment was uniform with respect to these elements for periods of the order of 35 m.y. and probably since the opening of the Atlantic. Yet these HYG element ratios at 63°N are very different from those at 45°N and 36°N and significantly different from the values at 22°N and in "MORB". The observed variations are difficult to reconcile with current concepts of mantle plumes and binary mixing models. The mantle is certainly heterogeneous, but there is not simply an "enriched" and a "depleted" source, but rather a range of sources heterogeneous on different scales for different elements - to an extent and volume depending on previous depletion/enrichment events. HYG element ratios offer the best method of defining compositionally different mantle segments since they are little modified by the fractionation processes associated with basalt generation.

Modelagem de dados de resposta ao item sob efeito de speededness

Em testes nos quais uma quantidade considerável de indivíduos não dispõe de tempo suciente para responder todos os itens temos o que é chamado de efeito de Speededness. O uso do modelo unidimensional da Teoria da Resposta ao Item (TRI) em testes com speededness pode nos levar a uma série de interpretações errôneas uma vez que nesse modelo é suposto que os respondentes possuem tempo suciente para responder todos os itens. Nesse trabalho, desenvolvemos uma análise Bayesiana do modelo tri-dimensional da TRI proposto por Wollack e Cohen (2005) considerando uma estrutura de dependência entre as distribuições a priori dos traços latentes a qual modelamos com o uso de cópulas. Apresentamos um processo de estimação para o modelo proposto e fazemos um estudo de simulação comparativo com a análise realizada por Bazan et al. (2010) na qual foi utilizada distribuições a priori independentes para os traços latentes. Finalmente, fazemos uma análise de sensibilidade do modelo em estudo e apresentamos uma aplicação levando em conta um conjunto de dados reais proveniente de um subteste do EGRA, chamado de Nonsense Words, realizado no Peru em 2007. Nesse subteste os alunos são avaliados por via oral efetuando a leitura, sequencialmente, de 50 palavras sem sentidos em 60 segundos o que caracteriza a presença do efeito speededness.

A Be-type star with a black-hole companion

Stellar-mass black holes have all been discovered through X-ray emission, which arises from the accretion of gas from their binary companions (this gas is either stripped from low-mass stars or supplied as winds from massive ones). Binary evolution models also predict the existence of black holes accreting from the equatorial envelope of rapidly spinning Be-type stars1, 2, 3 (stars of the Be type are hot blue irregular variables showing characteristic spectral emission lines of hydrogen). Of the approximately 80 Be X-ray binaries known in the Galaxy, however, only pulsating neutron stars have been found as companions2, 3, 4. A black hole was formally allowed as a solution for the companion to the Be star MWC 656 (ref. 5; also known as HD 215227), although that conclusion was based on a single radial velocity curve of the Be star, a mistaken spectral classification6 and rough estimates of the inclination angle. Here we report observations of an accretion disk line mirroring the orbit of MWC 656. This, together with an improved radial velocity curve of the Be star through fitting sharp Fe ii profiles from the equatorial disk, and a refined Be classification (to that of a B1.5–B2 III star), indicates that a black hole of 3.8 to 6.9 solar masses orbits MWC 656, the candidate counterpart of the γ-ray source AGL J2241+4454 (refs 5, 6). The black hole is X-ray quiescent and fed by a radiatively inefficient accretion flow giving a luminosity less than 1.6 × 10−7 times the Eddington luminosity. This implies that Be binaries with black-hole companions are difficult to detect in conventional X-ray surveys.

Les pratiques d’intervention policières auprès des personnes en crise ou atteintes de troubles mentaux : le cas des agents de réponse en intervention de crise du Service de police de la Ville de Montréal

Cette recherche porte sur les pratiques d’intervention des agents de réponse en intervention de crise (RIC), de leur partenaire fixe et des agents en attente de la formation du Service de police de la Ville de Montréal (SPVM) auprès des personnes en crise ou atteintes de troubles mentaux. Les agents RIC sont des patrouilleurs de première ligne qui ont reçu une formation complète sur les principes d’intervention en contexte de crise ou de santé mentale. Ce modèle de réponse spécialisée est une solution proactive qui a pour but d’améliorer l’action policière en situation de crise et de veiller à une meilleure prise en charge de ces personnes par les ressources institutionnelles. La désinstitutionnalisation des soins et des services psychiatriques a eu pour effet une augmentation du nombre de personnes atteintes de troubles mentaux dans la communauté. Par conséquent, cet accroissement a engendré des rapports plus fréquents entre les services policiers et cette clientèle. Les interventions en contexte de crise ou de santé mentale sont particulières et complexes, de même qu’elles requièrent un niveau supérieur de compréhension des crises humaines. Les autorités policières ont admis que ces interventions représentent une part significative de leur travail et que la formation policière traditionnelle ne les prépare pas suffisamment pour intervenir adéquatement auprès de cette population. En réponse à ces considérations et dans l’objectif d’améliorer leur capacité d’agir, les forces policières se sont dotées de modèles de réponse policière spécialisée en intervention de crise. L’approche la plus répandue est l’équipe d’intervention de crise (« crisis intervention team » ou « CIT »), aussi appelée le modèle de Memphis. Il existe plusieurs variantes de ce modèle, mais les composantes principales, c’est-à-dire la formation avancée et la consolidation d’un partenariat avec le système de santé demeurent dans l’ensemble de ces structures. L’objectif de cette recherche consiste à sonder les perceptions des agents RIC, de leur partenaire fixe et des agents en attente de la formation afin de comprendre et de contraster leurs visions et leurs pratiques d’intervention en contexte de crise ou de santé mentale. Chaque groupe a apporté des précisions intéressantes. Nous avons conduit 12 entrevues qualitatives avec des policiers du SPVM. De façon générale, les participants rapportent que leurs pratiques d’intervention auprès des personnes en crise ou atteintes de troubles mentaux sont davantage ancrées dans une perspective de relation d’aide. Ils mentionnent également que la communication, l’écoute et la confiance doivent être privilégiées avant tout autre stratégie dans les situations qui les permettent et que la force doit être employée seulement lorsqu’elle est nécessaire, c’est-à-dire lorsque leur sécurité ou celle d’autrui est en péril ou lorsque la communication n’est pas possible. Puis, ils admettent que le recours à l’expertise des intervenants en santé mentale permet une analyse plus approfondie de la situation et de l’état mental de la personne visée par l’intervention. D’autre part, en ce qui concerne les limites de la formation policière traditionnelle, les candidats ont soulevé qu’il y a un manque de connaissances en matière de santé mentale ainsi qu’une difficulté associée à l’évaluation de l’état de la personne et du besoin de transport ont été soulevés. Sur le plan des apprentissages, les agents RIC disent avoir une compréhension plus globale de la problématique de santé mentale, de meilleures habiletés communicationnelles, une analyse plus approfondie de la situation, de plus grandes connaissances juridiques, une compréhension du fonctionnement des services hospitaliers ainsi qu’une appréciation particulière pour le partage de savoirs et les principes d’endiguement. Ils font part également de l’importance des rapports pour documenter l’évolution de l’état mental d’une personne et ils ajoutent que la dimension temporelle joue un rôle clé dans la résolution définitive de la problématique. Au sujet des partenaires, ils évoquent des retombées similaires. Toutefois, à la suite de la formation, ils reconnaissent davantage l’importance de leur rôle dans la sécurité de leur partenaire et ils y accordent dorénavant une attention marquée lors de ces interventions. Enfin, les agents non formés formulent des attentes relatives au développement d’outils et de compétences, ce qui leur sera rendu dans la formation RIC. Globalement, les agents RIC et les partenaires interviewés ont modifié leurs pratiques pour les arrimer avec la philosophie des interventions en contexte de crise ou de santé mentale. Ils ont également davantage confiance en leurs capacités et habiletés d’intervention auprès des personnes en crise ou atteintes de troubles mentaux grâce aux connaissances acquises dans la formation.

Les pratiques d’intervention policières auprès des personnes en crise ou atteintes de troubles mentaux : le cas des agents de réponse en intervention de crise du Service de police de la Ville de Montréal

Cette recherche porte sur les pratiques d’intervention des agents de réponse en intervention de crise (RIC), de leur partenaire fixe et des agents en attente de la formation du Service de police de la Ville de Montréal (SPVM) auprès des personnes en crise ou atteintes de troubles mentaux. Les agents RIC sont des patrouilleurs de première ligne qui ont reçu une formation complète sur les principes d’intervention en contexte de crise ou de santé mentale. Ce modèle de réponse spécialisée est une solution proactive qui a pour but d’améliorer l’action policière en situation de crise et de veiller à une meilleure prise en charge de ces personnes par les ressources institutionnelles. La désinstitutionnalisation des soins et des services psychiatriques a eu pour effet une augmentation du nombre de personnes atteintes de troubles mentaux dans la communauté. Par conséquent, cet accroissement a engendré des rapports plus fréquents entre les services policiers et cette clientèle. Les interventions en contexte de crise ou de santé mentale sont particulières et complexes, de même qu’elles requièrent un niveau supérieur de compréhension des crises humaines. Les autorités policières ont admis que ces interventions représentent une part significative de leur travail et que la formation policière traditionnelle ne les prépare pas suffisamment pour intervenir adéquatement auprès de cette population. En réponse à ces considérations et dans l’objectif d’améliorer leur capacité d’agir, les forces policières se sont dotées de modèles de réponse policière spécialisée en intervention de crise. L’approche la plus répandue est l’équipe d’intervention de crise (« crisis intervention team » ou « CIT »), aussi appelée le modèle de Memphis. Il existe plusieurs variantes de ce modèle, mais les composantes principales, c’est-à-dire la formation avancée et la consolidation d’un partenariat avec le système de santé demeurent dans l’ensemble de ces structures. L’objectif de cette recherche consiste à sonder les perceptions des agents RIC, de leur partenaire fixe et des agents en attente de la formation afin de comprendre et de contraster leurs visions et leurs pratiques d’intervention en contexte de crise ou de santé mentale. Chaque groupe a apporté des précisions intéressantes. Nous avons conduit 12 entrevues qualitatives avec des policiers du SPVM. De façon générale, les participants rapportent que leurs pratiques d’intervention auprès des personnes en crise ou atteintes de troubles mentaux sont davantage ancrées dans une perspective de relation d’aide. Ils mentionnent également que la communication, l’écoute et la confiance doivent être privilégiées avant tout autre stratégie dans les situations qui les permettent et que la force doit être employée seulement lorsqu’elle est nécessaire, c’est-à-dire lorsque leur sécurité ou celle d’autrui est en péril ou lorsque la communication n’est pas possible. Puis, ils admettent que le recours à l’expertise des intervenants en santé mentale permet une analyse plus approfondie de la situation et de l’état mental de la personne visée par l’intervention. D’autre part, en ce qui concerne les limites de la formation policière traditionnelle, les candidats ont soulevé qu’il y a un manque de connaissances en matière de santé mentale ainsi qu’une difficulté associée à l’évaluation de l’état de la personne et du besoin de transport ont été soulevés. Sur le plan des apprentissages, les agents RIC disent avoir une compréhension plus globale de la problématique de santé mentale, de meilleures habiletés communicationnelles, une analyse plus approfondie de la situation, de plus grandes connaissances juridiques, une compréhension du fonctionnement des services hospitaliers ainsi qu’une appréciation particulière pour le partage de savoirs et les principes d’endiguement. Ils font part également de l’importance des rapports pour documenter l’évolution de l’état mental d’une personne et ils ajoutent que la dimension temporelle joue un rôle clé dans la résolution définitive de la problématique. Au sujet des partenaires, ils évoquent des retombées similaires. Toutefois, à la suite de la formation, ils reconnaissent davantage l’importance de leur rôle dans la sécurité de leur partenaire et ils y accordent dorénavant une attention marquée lors de ces interventions. Enfin, les agents non formés formulent des attentes relatives au développement d’outils et de compétences, ce qui leur sera rendu dans la formation RIC. Globalement, les agents RIC et les partenaires interviewés ont modifié leurs pratiques pour les arrimer avec la philosophie des interventions en contexte de crise ou de santé mentale. Ils ont également davantage confiance en leurs capacités et habiletés d’intervention auprès des personnes en crise ou atteintes de troubles mentaux grâce aux connaissances acquises dans la formation.

Reliability measures for local nodes assessment in classification trees

Most of the modem developments with classification trees are aimed at improving their predictive capacity. This article considers a curiously neglected aspect of classification trees, namely the reliability of predictions that come from a given classification tree. In the sense that a node of a tree represents a point in the predictor space in the limit, the aim of this article is the development of localized assessment of the reliability of prediction rules. A classification tree may be used either to provide a probability forecast, where for each node the membership probabilities for each class constitutes the prediction, or a true classification where each new observation is predictively assigned to a unique class. Correspondingly, two types of reliability measure will be derived-namely, prediction reliability and classification reliability. We use bootstrapping methods as the main tool to construct these measures. We also provide a suite of graphical displays by which they may be easily appreciated. In addition to providing some estimate of the reliability of specific forecasts of each type, these measures can also be used to guide future data collection to improve the effectiveness of the tree model. The motivating example we give has a binary response, namely the presence or absence of a species of Eucalypt, Eucalyptus cloeziana, at a given sampling location in response to a suite of environmental covariates, (although the methods are not restricted to binary response data).

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Estimating the SCAN*PRO model of store sales: HB, FM or just OLS?

In this paper we investigate whether consideration of store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects improves the accuracy of the marketing mix elasticities, fit, and forecasting accuracy of the widely-applied SCAN*PRO model of store sales. Models with continuous and discrete representations of heterogeneity, estimated using hierarchical Bayes (HB) and finite mixture (FM) techniques, respectively, are empirically compared to the original model, which does not account for store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects, and is estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). The empirical comparisons are conducted in two contexts: Dutch store-level scanner data for the shampoo product category, and an extensive simulation experiment. The simulation investigates how between- and within-segment variance in marketing mix effects, error variance, the number of weeks of data, and the number of stores impact the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities, model fit, and forecasting accuracy. Contrary to expectations, accommodating store-level heterogeneity does not improve the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities relative to the homogeneous SCAN*PRO model, suggesting that little may be lost by employing the original homogeneous SCAN*PRO model estimated using ordinary least squares. Improvements in fit and forecasting accuracy are also fairly modest. We pursue an explanation for this result since research in other contexts has shown clear advantages from assuming some type of heterogeneity in market response models. In an Afterthought section, we comment on the controversial nature of our result, distinguishing factors inherent to household-level data and associated models vs. general store-level data and associated models vs. the unique SCAN*PRO model specification.

Optimal design for correlated processes with input-dependent noise

Optimal design for parameter estimation in Gaussian process regression models with input-dependent noise is examined. The motivation stems from the area of computer experiments, where computationally demanding simulators are approximated using Gaussian process emulators to act as statistical surrogates. In the case of stochastic simulators, which produce a random output for a given set of model inputs, repeated evaluations are useful, supporting the use of replicate observations in the experimental design. The findings are also applicable to the wider context of experimental design for Gaussian process regression and kriging. Designs are proposed with the aim of minimising the variance of the Gaussian process parameter estimates. A heteroscedastic Gaussian process model is presented which allows for an experimental design technique based on an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic models. It is empirically shown that the error of the approximation of the parameter variance by the inverse of the Fisher information is reduced as the number of replicated points is increased. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic data and a systems biology stochastic simulator, optimal designs with replicate observations are shown to outperform space-filling designs both with and without replicate observations. Guidance is provided on best practice for optimal experimental design for stochastic response models. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bulk and molecular proxies of sediment core GeoB6518-1

A 20 kyr long sediment sequence from the Congo deep sea fan (core GeoB 6518-1), one of the world's largest deep sea river fans, has been analysed for bulk and molecular proxies in order to reconstruct the marine, soil and plant organic carbon (OC) contributions to these sediments since the last glacial maximum. The bulk proxies applied, C/N ratio and d13Corg, ranged from 10 to 12.5 and from -24.5 to -21 per mill VPDB, respectively. As molecular proxies, concentrations of marine derived alkenones and terrestrial derived odd-numbered n-alkanes were used, which varied between 0.2 and 4 µg/g dry weight sediment. In addition, the branched vs. isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index, a proxy for soil organic matter input, was used, which varied from 0.3 to 0.5 in this core. Application of binary mixing models, based on the different individual proxies, showed estimates for terrestrial OC input varying by up to 50% due to the heterogeneous nature of the OC. Application of a three end-member mixing model using the d13Corg content, the C/N ratio and the BIT index, enabled the distinction of soil and plant organic matter as separate contributors to the sedimentary OC pool. The results show that marine OC accounts for 20% to 40% of the total OC present in the deep sea fan sediments over the last 20 kyr and that soil OC accounts for about half (45% on average) of the OC present. This suggests that soil OC represents the majority of the terrestrial OC delivered to the fan sediments. Accumulation rates of the plant and soil OC fractions over the last 20 kyr varied by a factor of up to 5, and are strongly related to sediment accumulation rates. They showed an increase starting at ca. 17 kyr BP, a decline during the Younger Dryas, peak values during the early Holocene and lower values in the late Holocene. This pattern matches with reconstructions of past central African humidity and Congo River discharge from the same core and revealed that central African precipitation patterns exert a dominant control on terrestrial OC deposition in the Congo deep sea fan. Marine OC accumulation rates are only weakly related to sediment accumulation rates and vary only little over time compared to the terrigenous fractions. These variations are likely a result of enhanced preservation during times of higher sedimentation rates and of relative small fluctuations in primary production due to wind-driven upwelling.