A Collation of Recently published Western European Formulae for Age Estimation of Subadult Skeletal Remains: Recommendations For Forensic Anthropology and Osteoarchaeology

The aim of this study is to provide an effective and quick reference guide based on the most useful European formulae recently published for subadult age estimation. All of these formulae derive from studies on postnatal growth of the scapula, innominate, femur, and tibia, based on modern skeletal data (173 ♂, 173 ♀) from five documented collections from Spain, Portugal, and Britain. The formulae were calculated from Inverse Regression. For this reason, these formulae are especially useful for modern samples from Western Europe and in particular on 20th century human remains from the Iberian Peninsula. Eleven formulae were selected as the most useful because they can be applied to individuals from within a wide age range and in individuals of unknown sex. Due to their high reliability and because they derive from documented European skeletal samples, we recommend these formulae be used on individuals of Caucasoid ancestry from Western Europe.

Mobile system for pump working point estimation

In the current economy situation companies try to reduce their expenses. One of the solutions is to improve the energy efficiency of the processes. It is known that the energy consumption of pumping applications range from 20 up to 50% of the energy usage in the certain industrial plants operations. Some studies have shown that 30% to 50% of energy consumed by pump systems could be saved by changing the pump or the flow control method. The aim of this thesis is to create a mobile measurement system that can calculate a working point position of a pump drive. This information can be used to determine the efficiency of the pump drive operation and to develop a solution to bring pump’s efficiency to a maximum possible value. This can allow a great reduction in the pump drive’s life cycle cost. In the first part of the thesis, a brief introduction in the details of pump drive operation is given. Methods that can be used in the project are presented. Later, the review of available platforms for the project implementation is given. In the second part of the thesis, components of the project are presented. Detailed description for each created component is given. Finally, results of laboratory tests are presented. Acquired results are compared and analyzed. In addition, the operation of created system is analyzed and suggestions for the future development are given.

Kernel-Based Ranking. Methods for Learning and Performance Estimation

Machine learning provides tools for automated construction of predictive models in data intensive areas of engineering and science. The family of regularized kernel methods have in the recent years become one of the mainstream approaches to machine learning, due to a number of advantages the methods share. The approach provides theoretically well-founded solutions to the problems of under- and overfitting, allows learning from structured data, and has been empirically demonstrated to yield high predictive performance on a wide range of application domains. Historically, the problems of classification and regression have gained the majority of attention in the field. In this thesis we focus on another type of learning problem, that of learning to rank. In learning to rank, the aim is from a set of past observations to learn a ranking function that can order new objects according to how well they match some underlying criterion of goodness. As an important special case of the setting, we can recover the bipartite ranking problem, corresponding to maximizing the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in binary classification. Ranking applications appear in a large variety of settings, examples encountered in this thesis include document retrieval in web search, recommender systems, information extraction and automated parsing of natural language. We consider the pairwise approach to learning to rank, where ranking models are learned by minimizing the expected probability of ranking any two randomly drawn test examples incorrectly. The development of computationally efficient kernel methods, based on this approach, has in the past proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is not clear what techniques for estimating the predictive performance of learned models are the most reliable in the ranking setting, and how the techniques can be implemented efficiently. The contributions of this thesis are as follows. First, we develop RankRLS, a computationally efficient kernel method for learning to rank, that is based on minimizing a regularized pairwise least-squares loss. In addition to training methods, we introduce a variety of algorithms for tasks such as model selection, multi-output learning, and cross-validation, based on computational shortcuts from matrix algebra. Second, we improve the fastest known training method for the linear version of the RankSVM algorithm, which is one of the most well established methods for learning to rank. Third, we study the combination of the empirical kernel map and reduced set approximation, which allows the large-scale training of kernel machines using linear solvers, and propose computationally efficient solutions to cross-validation when using the approach. Next, we explore the problem of reliable cross-validation when using AUC as a performance criterion, through an extensive simulation study. We demonstrate that the proposed leave-pair-out cross-validation approach leads to more reliable performance estimation than commonly used alternative approaches. Finally, we present a case study on applying machine learning to information extraction from biomedical literature, which combines several of the approaches considered in the thesis. The thesis is divided into two parts. Part I provides the background for the research work and summarizes the most central results, Part II consists of the five original research articles that are the main contribution of this thesis.

Testing Futures Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation: Evidence from Futures and Options on RTS

This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.

Differential Evolution approach and parameter estimation of chaotic

Parameter estimation still remains a challenge in many important applications. There is a need to develop methods that utilize achievements in modern computational systems with growing capabilities. Owing to this fact different kinds of Evolutionary Algorithms are becoming an especially perspective field of research. The main aim of this thesis is to explore theoretical aspects of a specific type of Evolutionary Algorithms class, the Differential Evolution (DE) method, and implement this algorithm as codes capable to solve a large range of problems. Matlab, a numerical computing environment provided by MathWorks inc., has been utilized for this purpose. Our implementation empirically demonstrates the benefits of a stochastic optimizers with respect to deterministic optimizers in case of stochastic and chaotic problems. Furthermore, the advanced features of Differential Evolution are discussed as well as taken into account in the Matlab realization. Test "toycase" examples are presented in order to show advantages and disadvantages caused by additional aspects involved in extensions of the basic algorithm. Another aim of this paper is to apply the DE approach to the parameter estimation problem of the system exhibiting chaotic behavior, where the well-known Lorenz system with specific set of parameter values is taken as an example. Finally, the DE approach for estimation of chaotic dynamics is compared to the Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system (EPPES) approach which was recently proposed as a possible solution for similar problems.

Comparison of Model-Based Flow Rate Estimation Methods in Frequency-Converter-Driven Pumps and Fans

Fluid handling systems such as pump and fan systems are found to have a significant potential for energy efficiency improvements. To deliver the energy saving potential, there is a need for easily implementable methods to monitor the system output. This is because information is needed to identify inefficient operation of the fluid handling system and to control the output of the pumping system according to process needs. Model-based pump or fan monitoring methods implemented in variable speed drives have proven to be able to give information on the system output without additional metering; however, the current model-based methods may not be usable or sufficiently accurate in the whole operation range of the fluid handling device. To apply model-based system monitoring in a wider selection of systems and to improve the accuracy of the monitoring, this paper proposes a new method for pump and fan output monitoring with variable-speed drives. The method uses a combination of already known operating point estimation methods. Laboratory measurements are used to verify the benefits and applicability of the improved estimation method, and the new method is compared with five previously introduced model-based estimation methods. According to the laboratory measurements, the new estimation method is the most accurate and reliable of the model-based estimation methods.

Estimation histologique de l’âge à la mort à partir du deuxième métacarpe chez l’humain

Cette étude teste l’hypothèse que le remodelage osseux dans le deuxième métacarpe peut être utilisé pour estimer l’âge à la mort. Les métacarpes utilisés dans cette analyse proviennent d’un cimetière d’Ontario, incluant des individus d’origine européenne (n=63; 34 hommes; 29 femmes). Leur âge varie de 19 à 61 ans (moyenne: 41,1±11,6). L’âge était connu ou a été estimé indépendamment à partir de la morphologie générale du squelette. À partir de lames minces coupées à la mi-diaphyse, la densité de population des ostéons (OPD; ostéons/mm2 intacts et fragmentaires) a été calculée pour huit colonnes du périoste à l’endoste, deux par quadrant anatomique. Les régressions par calibration classique ont produit une série d’équation pour les estimations de l’âge pour chaque sexe, sexes combinés, et en fonction de la latéralité. La méthode utilisée diminue l’efficacité des estimations mais elle a l’avantage de réduire les biais. Quand les sexes sont combinés, l’OPD est corrélé modérément mais significativement avec l’âge (droit r2= 0,35; gauche r2=0,28). Cependant, quand les hommes et les femmes sont analysés séparément, la corrélation entre l’OPD et l’âge dans l’échantillon féminin est meilleure (droit r2=0,48; gauche r2=0,39) alors que celle des hommes est réduite (droit r2=0,29; gauche r2=0,22). Ce résultat a déjà été observé dans d’autres études, mais n’est pas expliqué. Les résultats démontrent aussi une meilleure corrélation entre l’OPD et l’âge du côté droit que du côté gauche. Tous les résultats présentés ici supportent l’hypothèse que l’OPD du métacarpe est corrélé avec l’âge effectif (c’est-à-dire connu ou estimé), les régressions de l’OPD sur l’âge (droit-gauche combinés ou séparés, sexes combinés ou séparés) étant toutes significatives.

Estimation des décès attribuables aux PM2.5 issues des feux de la forêt boréale du Nord du Québec

Il est bien établi que l'exposition à court terme aux particules fines dans l’air ambiant en milieu urbain a des effets sur la santé. Toutefois, peu d'études épidémiologiques ont évalué la relation entre les particules fines (PM2.5) de sources spécifiques comme celles dérivées de feux de forêt et les effets sur la santé. Pour l’instant, les risques de mortalité et de morbidité associés aux PM2.5 résultant de la combustion de végétation semblent similaires à ceux des PM2.5 urbaines. Dans le présent mémoire, nous avons comparé deux méthodes pour quantifier les risques de mortalité et de morbidité associés à l'augmentation des niveaux de PM2.5 à Montréal, dérivées de deux épisodes des feux de forêts majeurs dans le Nord du Québec. La première approche consistait à comparer les décès et les visites aux urgences observées enregistrées au cours des deux épisodes à Montréal à leurs moyennes respectives attendues durant des jours de référence. Nous avons également calculé la surmortalité et la surmorbidité prédites attribuables aux PM2.5 lors des épisodes, en projetant les risques relatifs (RR) rapportés par l’Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) des États-Unis pour les PM2.5 urbaines, ainsi qu’en appliquant des fonctions de risque estimées à partir des données estivales spécifiques à Montréal. Suivant la première approche, nous avons estimé une surmortalité de +10% pendant les deux épisodes. Cependant, aucune tendance claire n'a été observée pour les visites à l'urgence. Et suivant la 2e approche, la surmortalité prédite attribuable aux niveaux des PM2.5 dérivées des feux de forêt étaient moins élevés que ceux observés, soit de 1 à 4 cas seulement. Une faible surmortalité attribuable aux niveaux élevés des PM2.5 issues de feux de la forêt boréale du Québec a été estimée par les fonctions de risque ainsi que par la méthode de comparaison des décès observés aux moyennes attendues, sur l’Île de Montréal, située à des centaines de km des sites de feux.

Estimation des corrélations phylogénétiques entre paramètres d'évolution moléculaire et Traits d'histoire de vie

Depuis quelques années, l'évolution moléculaire cherche à caractériser les variations et l'intensité de la sélection grâce au rapport entre taux de substitution synonyme et taux de substitution non-synonyme (dN/dS). Cette mesure, dN/dS, a permis d'étudier l'histoire de la variation de l'intensité de la sélection au cours du temps ou de détecter des épisodes de la sélection positive. Les liens entre sélection et variation de taille efficace interfèrent cependant dans ces mesures. Les méthodes comparatives, quant a elle, permettent de mesurer les corrélations entre caractères quantitatifs le long d'une phylogénie. Elles sont également utilisées pour tester des hypothèses sur l'évolution corrélée des traits d'histoire de vie, mais pour être employées pour étudier les corrélations entre traits d'histoire de vie, masse, taux de substitution ou dN/dS. Nous proposons ici une approche combinant une méthode comparative basée sur le principe des contrastes indépendants et un modèle d'évolution moléculaire, dans un cadre probabiliste Bayésien. Intégrant, le long d'une phylogénie, sur les reconstructions ancestrales des traits et et de dN/dS nous estimons les covariances entre traits ainsi qu'entre traits et paramètres du modèle d'évolution moléculaire. Un modèle hiérarchique, a été implémenté dans le cadre du logiciel coevol, publié au cours de cette maitrise. Ce modèle permet l'analyse simultané de plusieurs gènes sans perdre la puissance donnée par l'ensemble de séquences. Un travail deparallélisation des calculs donne la liberté d'augmenter la taille du modèle jusqu'à l'échelle du génome. Nous étudions ici les placentaires, pour lesquels beaucoup de génomes complets et de mesures phénotypiques sont disponibles. À la lumière des théories sur les traits d'histoire de vie, notre méthode devrait permettre de caractériser l'implication de groupes de gènes dans les processus biologique liés aux phénotypes étudiés.

Uncertainties in annual riverine phosphorus load estimation: Impact of load estimation methodology, sampling frequency, baseflow index and catchment population density

Models developed to identify the rates and origins of nutrient export from land to stream require an accurate assessment of the nutrient load present in the water body in order to calibrate model parameters and structure. These data are rarely available at a representative scale and in an appropriate chemical form except in research catchments. Observational errors associated with nutrient load estimates based on these data lead to a high degree of uncertainty in modelling and nutrient budgeting studies. Here, daily paired instantaneous P and flow data for 17 UK research catchments covering a total of 39 water years (WY) have been used to explore the nature and extent of the observational error associated with nutrient flux estimates based on partial fractions and infrequent sampling. The daily records were artificially decimated to create 7 stratified sampling records, 7 weekly records, and 30 monthly records from each WY and catchment. These were used to evaluate the impact of sampling frequency on load estimate uncertainty. The analysis underlines the high uncertainty of load estimates based on monthly data and individual P fractions rather than total P. Catchments with a high baseflow index and/or low population density were found to return a lower RMSE on load estimates when sampled infrequently than those with a tow baseflow index and high population density. Catchment size was not shown to be important, though a limitation of this study is that daily records may fail to capture the full range of P export behaviour in smaller catchments with flashy hydrographs, leading to an underestimate of uncertainty in Load estimates for such catchments. Further analysis of sub-daily records is needed to investigate this fully. Here, recommendations are given on load estimation methodologies for different catchment types sampled at different frequencies, and the ways in which this analysis can be used to identify observational error and uncertainty for model calibration and nutrient budgeting studies. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

Bayesian estimation of recent migration rates after a spatial expansion

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a highly flexible technique that allows the estimation of parameters under demographic models that are too complex to be handled by full-likelihood methods. We assess the utility of this method to estimate the parameters of range expansion in a two-dimensional stepping-stone model, using samples from either a single deme or multiple demes. A minor modification to the ABC procedure is introduced, which leads to an improvement in the accuracy of estimation. The method is then used to estimate the expansion time and migration rates for five natural common vole populations in Switzerland typed for a sex-linked marker and a nuclear marker. Estimates based on both markers suggest that expansion occurred < 10,000 years ago, after the most recent glaciation, and that migration rates are strongly male biased.

Estimation of optimal gravity wave parameters for climate models using data assimilation

There is a current need to constrain the parameters of gravity wave drag (GWD) schemes in climate models using observational information instead of tuning them subjectively. In this work, an inverse technique is developed using data assimilation principles to estimate gravity wave parameters. Because mostGWDschemes assume instantaneous vertical propagation of gravity waves within a column, observations in a single column can be used to formulate a one-dimensional assimilation problem to estimate the unknown parameters. We define a cost function that measures the differences between the unresolved drag inferred from observations (referred to here as the ‘observed’ GWD) and the GWD calculated with a parametrisation scheme. The geometry of the cost function presents some difficulties, including multiple minima and ill-conditioning because of the non-independence of the gravity wave parameters. To overcome these difficulties we propose a genetic algorithm to minimize the cost function, which provides a robust parameter estimation over a broad range of prescribed ‘true’ parameters. When real experiments using an independent estimate of the ‘observed’ GWD are performed, physically unrealistic values of the parameters can result due to the non-independence of the parameters. However, by constraining one of the parameters to lie within a physically realistic range, this degeneracy is broken and the other parameters are also found to lie within physically realistic ranges. This argues for the essential physical self-consistency of the gravity wave scheme. A much better fit to the observed GWD at high latitudes is obtained when the parameters are allowed to vary with latitude. However, a close fit can be obtained either in the upper or the lower part of the profiles, but not in both at the same time. This result is a consequence of assuming an isotropic launch spectrum. The changes of sign in theGWDfound in the tropical lower stratosphere, which are associated with part of the quasi-biennial oscillation forcing, cannot be captured by the parametrisation with optimal parameters.

Bollène-2002 experiment: radar quantitative precipitation estimation in the Cévennes–Vivarais region, France

The Bollène-2002 Experiment was aimed at developing the use of a radar volume-scanning strategy for conducting radar rainfall estimations in the mountainous regions of France. A developmental radar processing system, called Traitements Régionalisés et Adaptatifs de Données Radar pour l’Hydrologie (Regionalized and Adaptive Radar Data Processing for Hydrological Applications), has been built and several algorithms were specifically produced as part of this project. These algorithms include 1) a clutter identification technique based on the pulse-to-pulse variability of reflectivity Z for noncoherent radar, 2) a coupled procedure for determining a rain partition between convective and widespread rainfall R and the associated normalized vertical profiles of reflectivity, and 3) a method for calculating reflectivity at ground level from reflectivities measured aloft. Several radar processing strategies, including nonadaptive, time-adaptive, and space–time-adaptive variants, have been implemented to assess the performance of these new algorithms. Reference rainfall data were derived from a careful analysis of rain gauge datasets furnished by the Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory. The assessment criteria for five intense and long-lasting Mediterranean rain events have proven that good quantitative precipitation estimates can be obtained from radar data alone within 100-km range by using well-sited, well-maintained radar systems and sophisticated, physically based data-processing systems. The basic requirements entail performing accurate electronic calibration and stability verification, determining the radar detection domain, achieving efficient clutter elimination, and capturing the vertical structure(s) of reflectivity for the target event. Radar performance was shown to depend on type of rainfall, with better results obtained with deep convective rain systems (Nash coefficients of roughly 0.90 for point radar–rain gauge comparisons at the event time step), as opposed to shallow convective and frontal rain systems (Nash coefficients in the 0.6–0.8 range). In comparison with time-adaptive strategies, the space–time-adaptive strategy yields a very significant reduction in the radar–rain gauge bias while the level of scatter remains basically unchanged. Because the Z–R relationships have not been optimized in this study, results are attributed to an improved processing of spatial variations in the vertical profile of reflectivity. The two main recommendations for future work consist of adapting the rain separation method for radar network operations and documenting Z–R relationships conditional on rainfall type.