The Greek debt trap: an escape plan. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/19, 7 November 2012

Without corrective measures, Greek public debt will exceed 190 percent of GDP, instead of peaking at the anyway too-high target ratio of 167 percent of GDP of the March 2012 financial assistance programme. The rise is largely due to a negative feedback loop between high public debt and the collapse in GDP, and endangers Greek membership of the euro area. But a Greek exit would have devastating impacts both inside and outside Greece. A small reduction in the interest rate on bilateral loans, the exchange of European Central Bank holdings, buy-back of privately-held debt, and frontloading of some privatisation receipts are unlikely to be sufficient. A credible resolution should involve the reduction of the official lending rate to zero until 2020, an extension of the maturity of all official lending, and indexing the notional amount of all official loans to Greek GDP. Thereby, the debt ratio would fall below 100 percent of GDP by 2020, and if the economy deteriorates further, there will not be a need for new arrangements. But if growth is better than expected, official creditors will also benefit. In exchange for such help, the fiscal sovereignty of Greece should be curtailed further. An extended privatisation plan and future budget surpluses may be used to pay back the debt relief. The Greek fiscal tragedy highlights the need for a formal debt restructuring mechanism

Production around 1960

Film production in Italy 1957-66: a table of costs and receipts to producers for a selection of films; details of ways in which producers have promoted young new authors; comparison with the way formula genres function in the market.

Revenue-neutral tax policy under price uncertainty

The firm's response to revenue-neutral taxation is investigated under price uncertainty. Revenue-neutral policies adjust simultaneously the marginal tax rate and the level of exemptions while keeping expected tax receipts constant. Nonincreasing absolute risk aversion is sufficient to sign the firm's response: a reduction in the marginal rate causes the firm to contract output. Implications are established for the equilibrium level of treasury receipts.

Budget constrained tax policy under price uncertainty: implications for supply control

Tax policies that constrain net transfers between the farm sector and the fisc are modeled under price uncertainty. Increasing the level of tax on profits causes the firm to expand output. Implications are derived for supply control and the distributions of profits and net receipts at the fisc.

Soft money : private foundations of party politics

In the area of campaign financing in federal elections, one of the most controversial issues is that of soft money. Soft money refers to those funds raised by the national party organizations for use on various grassroots and party-building activities. but which are not subject to the restraints of federal campaign finance law. Critics contend that these party-building activitie, such as generic television advertising, voter registration and get-out-the vote drives, provide ancillary benefits to federal candidates and should, therefore, be subject to federal contribution and expenditure limits. Critics further argue that because these funds are not subject to federal law and do benefit federal candidates, the national parties raise monies in amounts and from sources, such as corporations and unions, that are prohibited under federal law. Efforts to gain a better understanding of soft money have been hampered by a lack of data, as the national parties were not required to disclose their soft money receipts and transactions until 1991. The purpose of this study is to analyze data recently made available in an attempt to add the import of empirical evidence to the debate over soft money. The nature, size and timing of soft money contributions are investigated and national party soft money disbursements are examined. The findings suggest that any attempts to reform the soft money system must first consider its compensatory benefits. Most prominently, this includes the extent to which soft money has promoted the resurgence of the national party organizations in the context of election politics.

Managing sport in drought-new stakeholders and new governance issues : a case study

Globally, almost every nation is facing some form of water crisis (World Commission on Water 2000). In Australia, the sport and recreation industry is one of the highest consumers of water. Other high water consuming industries (such as agriculture and farming) have been forced to adhere to strict managerial and governance reform due to the water crisis, yet in the sport and recreation industry, such changes are yet to be implemented and fully realised across the sector.

This research examines the impacts of drought and sustainable water management for sport and recreation. Specifically, it provides a case study of sport and recreation provision in a municipality that has already undergone considerable reform due to long-term drought. Sport and recreation use water for purposes such as irrigation of playing fields/pitches, filling swimming pools, stadium amenities and facilities, kitchens, maintenance and cleaning, and clubhouse amenities.

For sports that are heavy users of water for the maintenance of playing fields (such as soccer, Australian Rules football, rugby league, rugby union, grass and clay tennis courts to name a few) the impacts of drought and water restrictions have been severe. Some sports have reported an increase in the risk of injury to participants because of the condition of un-watered playing fields (Sport and Recreation Victoria 2007). Others have been forced to delay or shorten their seasons (Sleeman 2007), or worse still, cancel training and organised competition completely (Connolly and Bell 2007). While the impact of water restrictions has been profound on most sports, there are some sports that are not heavy water users and the impact of drought and water restrictions has been minimal. This problem creates issues and apparent inequities raising the need to further examine water consumption in sport and recreation. The potential outcome that arises is that the future of those sports that cannot conduct their competitions may be disadvantaged, while other sports that do not have such problems may be able to flourish.

Water, and those who control the supply of it, then defines which sports are able to flourish and sustain sport development pathways, compared to those whose survival may be in jeopardy. This research explores the stakeholder management and governance issues that have resulted for sport and recreation in the City of Greater Geelong (CoGG) located in Victoria, Australia--a region in long-term water crisis. The supply of sport and recreation facilities in the CoGG (like most municipalities in Australia) is largely the responsibility of the municipal council. The corporation responsible for the supply of water to the municipality is Barwon Water.

Although other sport and recreation facilities exist in the CoGG, the municipal council of CoGG owns and maintains over 120 sporting ovals (including the stadium used by its professional Australian Football League (AFL) team, the Cats), six swimming pools, and three golf courses. The CoGG host their professional AFL team, a range of local, national and international sport events, and provide a wide range of sport and recreation facilities for the community residents.

Eight interviews were conducted in total. Interviews were conducted with representatives from CoGG municipal council (who are responsible for the delivery of sport and recreation services and facilities in Geelong), and representatives from Barwon Water (who are responsible for the ongoing provision and maintenance of sport and recreation services and facilities) through the provision of water. Results show that the ten highest users of water in the municipality are sport and recreation facilitieswhich between them use almost one-third of the city's total water consumption (City of Greater Geelong 2006).

The municipal council is under considerable pressure to find ways to continue to provide sport and recreation opportunities for community members, as well as professional athletes and teams who use these facilities despite water restrictions. After all, these facilities provide benefit to spectators and participants, as well as businesses that rely on visitors to Geelong for sport and recreation events.

Due to such pressures, from 2007, the CoGG and Barwon Water agreed to provide the sport and recreation sector with water allocations rather than to be denied of all water under the water restriction regimes in place in the municipality. During 2007 summer sport season, this allowed the CoGG to keep 16 of its 120 sporting ovals open for participation through allocating all available water to these fields in order to keep them safe and playable. However, CoGG and Barwon Water were required to devise a rating scale to determine which sports (and sport facilities) were to share the allocated water, and which were not. These decisions also had knock on effects through sports. In order to ensure the safety of the playing surfaces, the CoGG and Barwon Water also restricted use of fields to competition only, therefore sport participants were forced to train on local beaches and other parkland areas-transferring issues of safety and public liability to other locations and facilities in the community. Further, it was reported that scheduling of competition seasons and individual matches; as well as the allocation of "home ground" gate receipts and concessions profits were required to be governed by the CoGG and Barwon Water as the competing sports were unable to agree. Perhaps more importantly, the rating scale developed for water allocation also resulted in some sports being rated as ineligible for water and as a result were unable to stage their entire competitions.

Clearly, the water allocation rating scale, and approach taken in this municipality to the continued delivery of sport and recreation has provided a workable solution. However, this study also signals that new stakeholders have entered the arena for the governance of sport. Governance structures in sport and recreation are being impacted as a result of the water crisis.

Those making decisions about which sport and recreation activities and/or facilities will be assisted with water resources are being made by local councils and water corporations. Sport managers are being required to understand existing areas of knowledge (such as turf management) in different ways, to gain knowledge in new areas (such as sustainable water management), and to lobby new stakeholder groups (such as water corporations) in order to secure their futures. The continued existence of some sports is no longer in the hands of governing bodies, but in the hands of local councils, and water corporations.

Clearly, any of the solutions implemented as discussed above, require multiple stakeholders to interact, and to reach agreement in order to assist in sustainable management of water in sport and recreation. In this sense, the management of water in sport (and all other industries) is more than a rational decision about policy, legislation, restrictions and resource allocations. It is a social and political process requiring scholarly attention for practical solutions.

Does tourism Granger causes economic growth in Fiji?

Tourism is Fiji's largest industry in terms of export earnings and employment. In this paper we investigate the nexus between tourism receipts and real gross domestic product (GDP) in Fiji. Specifically, we test whether the two variables are cointegrated and using Granger causality tests we establish the direction of causation between the two. We find that there is a cointegration relationship when real GDP is the dependent variable. On the direction of causation we find that in the short-run real GDP Granger causes tourism receipts while in the long-run tourism receipts Granger cause real GDP.

Donor funding of multilateral aid agencies : determining factors and revealed burden sharing

This paper reports an empirical study of the factors affecting burden sharing among OECD's 22 DAC members in 'bankrolling' the multilateral aid agencies. Annual data over 1970–2000, pooled across the donor countries, form the basis for the empirical estimation of each donor's share in the ODA aid receipts for each multilateral agency. Our findings suggest the existence of reverse exploitation, i.e., the financial burden of the agencies is disproportionally carried by the smaller donors. The study also finds that factors such as inherent donor generosity, donor concern for domestic egalitarianism, and the extent to which donors are pro-poor in their bilateral aid policies have an impact on their readiness to support multilateral agencies financially. Size of the donor government and its budgetary balance positively influence burden sharing of contributions to other multilateral agencies. But neither the phase of economic cycle nor the rate of economic growth affects the burden-sharing responsibility of donors. It was also observed that contributions by EU members to the EC do not appear to crowd-out their contributions to other multilateral aid agencies and that right-wing donor governments are generally more parsimonious with regard to financial assistance to multilateral aid agencies. The preferred alternative, particularly among EU member countries, appears to be the EC.

Vulnerability, trade, financial flows and state failure in small island developing states

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are very different to other developing countries. Relative to GDP they have the highest levels of foreign trade and aid receipts of all developing countries. Remittances from abroad are a far more important source of income for SIDS, and some depend very heavily on export revenues. The quality of governance varies tremendously among SIDS, they are over-represented among countries classified as fragile states and many are prone to state failure. These and other factors combine to make SIDS highly vulnerable to external economic shocks. Achieving development in SIDS is as a consequence an especially complex task that requires an understanding of the roles played by aid, trade, remittances and governance in these countries. This paper looks at these issues, along with providing various stylised facts about SIDS. In so doing it serves as a background and broad contextual setting for the papers that follow in this Special Issue on 'Fragility and Development in Small Island Developing States'.

Lançamento de DRs por empresas brasileiras no mercado norte-americano : valorização de mercado, volatilidade e performance ajustada ao risco

O lançamento de DRs (Recibos de Depósitos) por empresas brasileiras é um mecanismo que possibilita às empresas terem acesso a mercados de capitais maiores e mais líquidos, podendo servir como um instrumento para o aumento de suas visibilidades no exterior e como um possível redutor de seus custos de capital. Esta pesquisa verifica os reflexos ocorridos nas ações das empresas brasileiras que lançaram mão deste instrumento no que tange a suas valorizações de mercado, suas volatilidades e suas performances ajustadas ao risco. De uma forma geral, apesar de pouco significativos estatisticamente, os resultados encontrados para as empresas brasileiras parecem ser condizentes com a hipótese de que a negociação internacional dos papéis dessas companhias ajudam a reduzir os efeitos da segmentação de mercado em suas ações, estando associados a ajustes para cima em seus preços, e para baixo, em seus retornos esperados e em suas volatilidades, para todos os tipos de DRs brasileiros negociados no mercado norte-americano, à exceção dos DRs de nível III que, de uma forma não significativa, parecem se comportar como se fossem emissões sazonais de capitais tradicionais (seasoned equity offerings).

Análise da proposta de reforma tributária (EC nº 42) do governo Lula

As mudanças tributárias realizadas na última década priorizaram o ajuste fiscal com uma elevação da carga de impostos que saltou de 27% do PIB, em 1994, para cerca de 36% do PIB, em 2003. Esse aumento da carga tributária esteve associado principalmente ao aumento das contribuições sociais cumulativas. Além dessa crescente cumulatividade, outras características que têm marcado o sistema tributário brasileiro são a complexidade e os conflitos federativos que alimentam uma profunda guerra fiscal entre Estados e municípios. Em abril de 2003, o Governo Lula encaminhou ao Congresso Nacional uma ampla proposta de reforma tributária, tendo como objetivos principais (i) simplificar o sistema tributário brasileiro, (ii) reduzir a cumulatividade dos tributos e (iii) acabar com a guerra fiscal. Apesar do reconhecimento generalizado de que a carga tributária brasileira é excessivamente elevada, o governo federal limitou-se a assumir o compromisso de não promover aumentos adicionais de impostos. Inserido nesse contexto, este estudo analisa (i) o quadro fiscal brasileiro, procurando identificar as reais restrições que impedem a redução da carga tributária brasileira e (ii) as medidas tributárias propostas pelo Governo Lula, destacando suas implicações sobre o desenvolvimento econômico brasileiro.

Securitização de recebíveis de exportação : mecanismo de captação externo para empresas brasileiras

Trata da abordagem de um mecanismo de captação de recursos para empresas brasileiras. Aborda aspectos gerais relacionado à Balança de Pagamentos, Balança Comercial e o Risco Brasil, bem como mecanismos de captação, por empresas brasileiras, no mercado internacional de capitais, como Depositary Receipts e Bom/s. Aponta aspectos gerais e técnicos sobre Securitização, desenvolvendo urna análise e perspectivas da tendência deste tipo de operação no mercado brasileiro.

Os determinantes políticos das finanças estaduais no Brasil: 1986-2002

O objetivo da tese é investigar empiricamente se as diferenças nos resultados fiscais dos estados brasileiros no período 1986-2002 podem ser explicadas por variáveis políticas, mais especificamente a ocorrência de eleições, a ideologia dos políticos e a fragmentação política. Utilizam-se dados de painel para obter as estimativas. Tem-se como resultado que o calendário eleitoral afeta significativamente as variáveis fiscais, assim como alguns tipos de gastos. Quanto à ideologia, verificou-se que afeta os tipos de gastos governos de esquerda e centro-esquerda ampliam o investimento e governos de esquerda aumentam os gastos sociais. Governos majoritários na Assembléia aumentam as receitas, e quanto mais fragmentada uma coalizão de governo, maiores os gastos com investimento.

Avaliação do Programa Grande Carajas a luz da teoria de delimitação de sistemas sociais

o trabalho objetiva enquadrar o Programa Grande Carajás dentro dos planos de desenvolvimento da Amazônia ~ do qual ele é um programa para a Amazônia Oriental. A base teórica e a de delimitação de sistemas sociais de Guerreiro Ramos

O impacto da utilização da estrutura de listagem em BDR na precificação dos ativos após o evento Agrenco : uma análise em série temporal com quebra estrutural

Este trabalho tem por objetivo verificar o impacto que más práticas na gestão da Agrenco, empresa listada na bolsa de valores brasileira sob a forma de BDRs (Brazilian Depositary Receipts), trouxe para a precificação dos demais ativos listados sob a mesma estrutura. Estudos anteriores, como os de Saudagaran (1988) e Pagano (2001), focaram em temas referentes aos motivos que influenciaram as companhias a listarem suas ações em diferentes bolsas. Entender as conseqüências do evento Agrenco é importante para todos os participantes do mercado financeiro. O estudo contemplou uma amostra das principais empresas listadas sobre a forma de BDRs desde a data de seus IPOs até 26/08/2008. Primeiramente efetuou-se uma análise do comportamento gráfico dos preços dos ativos das BDRs listadas. Posteriormente elaborou-se três regressões múltiplas utilizando-se um modelo de série temporal (modelo AR – auto-regressivo), com análise de quebra estrutural e uso de variável Dummy. A primeira regressão relaciona a variável Agrenco com índices de BDRs constituídos especificamente para este estudo, a segunda inclui uma variável Dummy de intercepto e a terceira combina a variável Dummy de intercepto com uma variável Dummy de inclinação. As regressões têm o objetivo de se averiguar se o evento da Agrenco afetou sistematicamente os preços das ações listadas sob a mesma forma. A maior contribuição do estudo foi verificar que a má prática de gestão na Agrenco, listada sob a forma de BDR, contaminou o retorno de outras empresas que se utilizaram do mesmo veículo como fonte de captação de recursos. Os resultados apontaram, pela análise gráfica, que não houve um descolamento da valorização da maior parte das ações uma semana depois do anúncio dos problemas financeiros da Agrenco em relação a carteira téorica de mercado (IBOVESPA). Entretanto, os resultados dos testes econométricos apontaram que houve impacto do evento Agrenco sobre os retornos das ações listadas sob a forma de BDR.